Update: YouGov Galaxy seat polls
As explained below, the News Corp papers are releasing YouGov Galaxy seat polls today on an hourly schedule. The results will be updated here as they become available. The polls were conducted Monday and Tuesday from samples of around 550.
Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.
Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.
Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.
La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.
Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.
Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.
Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.
Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.
Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.
Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.
Original post
The Guardian reports Essential Research has concluded its business for the campaign with a poll that reports a 51.5-48.5 lead for Labor, having decided to mark the occasion by reporting its results to the first decimal place. This compares with a rounded result of 52-48 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is on 38.5% (up, probably, from 38% last time), Labor is on 36.2% (up from 34%), the Greens are well down to 9.1% from an inflated-looking 12% last time, and One Nation are on 6.6% (down from 7%). Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 42-31 to 39-32. The poll went to the effort to inquire about which campaign stories had registered with voters – I will be very interested to see the full numbers when Essential Research unloads its full report later today, but apparently Labor’s tax plans, the egging of Scott Morrison and the Daily Telegraph’s inspirational profile of Bill Shorten’s late mother all left an impression.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. It turns out respondents typed up their own responses on election news stories they had noticed and Essential has produced the results in word cloud form, which you can see in the release.
We can also expect national polls from Newspoll and Ipsos over the next day or two – and, starting at 10am this morning, the News Corp papers will today be treating us to an hourly schedule of YouGov Galaxy seat poll releases targeting (deep breath) Flynn at 10am; Macquarie at 11am; La Trobe at noon; Forde at 1pm; Reid at 2pm; Higgins at 3pm; Herbert at 4pm; Gilmore at 5pm; Deakin at 6pm; and Dickson in Queensland at 6pm. Except, it seems, the the Deakin poll is already with us, courtesy of today’s Herald Sun. It credits the Liberals with a lead of 51-49, or a 5.4% swing from the 2016 result. The primary votes are Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 540.
Also:
• The Greens were hawking a poll on Monday conducted by Environmental Research and Counsel, an offshoot of Essential Media, suggesting Josh Frydenberg was in serious difficulty in Kooyong. The poll showed Frydenberg’s primary vote at 41%, slumping from 58% in 2016, with Greens candidate Julian Burnside on 21%, Labor’s Jana Stewart on 16%, and much-touted independent Oliver Yates lagging on 9%. However, Frydenberg maintained a two-party lead over the Greens of 52-48. Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review reported on Tuesday that the Liberals were more confident than that, believing Frydenberg’s primary vote to be at around 48%.
• Andrew Tillett in the Financial Review reported on Monday that Labor was becoming “increasingly bullish about picking up seats in Victoria and Western Australia”. Concerning the former, the report relates that Liberal strategists are “split on whether to pour resources into Higgins, where Liberal candidate Katie Allen is narrowly ahead, or concentrate on other Melbourne marginals such as La Trobe, Casey or Deakin”. As David Crowe of noted in the Sydney Morning Herald on Monday, the Coalition’s $4 billion East West Link motorway commitment was “seen by Labor as an attempt to hold the Liberal electorates of Casey, Deakin and La Trobe”, none of which it would be so high on its priorities list if it was feeling confident.
• A slightly different view of the situation in Western Australia is provided by Andrew Burrell of The Australian, who reports Labor has scaled back its ambitions in the state, which once ran to five seats. Swan is said to be Labor’s best chance of a gain, and Labor says its internal polling has Pearce at 50-50, but the Liberals claim to be slightly ahead. But Labor sources sound discouraged about Hasluck, and the party is no longer bothering with Canning. Stirling, however, is said to be “close”. Scott Morrison visited the state on Monday, paying special attention to Swan; Bill Shorten followed the next day, where he campaigned in Pearce.
Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Perth seat of Swan.
I missed the Obama-Clinton wars, so about 2009?
There was Ron, who always ended up in the word wRONg
Was there anything late in the longman campaign which would have changed peoples minds in the last day or so towards Labor?
Since polls normally have a few days gap between asking peoples opinions and the election
Are we doing Pollbludger blog valedictory speeches now?
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/morrison-warns-now-is-not-the-time-to-switch-to-labor-20190516-p51o0c.html
Please, please, Scott when is the time to switch to Labor – we need to do so desperately!
Oh yes, Truthy remember the fun stirring, and Glen, Desert Fox and wasn’t there a Tim of Altona (or similar) I think he posts a lot BTL on the G.
For all those talking about Reid including A_E just a reminder that Reid includes Strathfiled, Homebush and Homebush west. The majority of that area is made up of buildings. The people living there are not the owners but the renters, they dont care about negative gearing/Property tax. Big proportion of the electorate are Asian/India. Makes what you want of that.Also if you look at the age groups, Reid has a higher proportion of 20-35 year olds compared to the rest of the country
A different Michael @ #923 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 1:44 pm
OK.
Just had a look on the websites of Dan Murphy’s, Liquorland and BWS and they don’t have any mention of it. Might have to order it in specially. That wouldn’t make it a cheap exercise.
To give Truthy his due, he DID pick up on Boats under Turnbull as LOTO, well in advance of it becoming a nuclear issue under Abbott.
My nomination for most exciting day on PB is the day Godwin Grech gave his Senate testimony and the evening and next day that followed where the emails were exposed as fakes. It was electric here.
HaveAchat says:
A bit of a “SNAP!” . I was also a JTI regular, until he was ‘gold bricked”, and discovered this place when someone posted a link on JTI’s blog. I think it was not too long after the Bludger’s finished the Obama v Hilary Nomination Civil War.
You let me off lightly there Cud. I thought Flinders and Swanston Streets, with Flinders Street Station, Young and Jacksons, St Pauls Cathedral and Federation Square would have been the most challenging location for that kind of activity. 😆
Blobbit @ #872 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 3:43 pm
Frank’s still around. Posts on Twitter But, I doubt he’ll ever darken PB’s doors again. His departure was on a scale similar to Bemused, although on different sorts of issues.
Course 8 in the degustation: “Adani surprise”
I remember a lot of insightful posts from Psephos back around 2007-a gent by the name of Adam Carr, who has a fantastic website with maps and data on elections all around the world, it’s a must-visit site if you are into elections. Think he was a staffer to an ALP senator back then-there was a lot of stuff around the Israel/Palestine conflict on this blog at that time, and that resulted in him leaving this site, which was a pity.
BB Crikey made Possum an offer and he moved his blog to Crikey. It was really good for a short while. Then Possum got a job and posted rarely for a while. Eventually it disappeared.
Cud Chewer @ #899 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 3:35 pm
Well, there’s always goon bags. 😆
GG@3:40pm
It may sound conspiratorial but I thought before these polls were announced that these polls will show LNP is not loosing any seats but ALP is losing some and give an impression that ALP will not win this election. Remember Murdoch press will do anything I repeat anything to get LNP over the line.
How is that LNP had some much for advertising when they were suppose to be really short of money?
The years just fly. I made my way here from Possums site. Can’t remember when but it was before the 2007 election. I remember when I first came here there was apparently a shaky truce with the Greens so even back then the ALP/Greens wars were happening. Pity nobody tries to broker truces anymore.
Darn I don’t want to be put off my burger and fries.
Lord of the fries started near there
If Labor loses this election it will be because they never seriously challenged the trope that Labor could not manage money. Labor PMs and LOTOs, ministers and MPs squibbed that fight EVERY time, to the point now where Morrison gets away with the accusation without any meaningful contradiction whatsoever.
dave @ #941 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 3:49 pm
Me too, but maybe there’s an administrative reason for that. 🙂
Frank’s active on facebook and occasionally chats with me about posts here (particularly if he thinks the Greens are getting out of hand…)
i have been here, mainly lurking, since after the 2004 election, when a previous blog site fell over, and everyone moved over to here. I cant remember the old site now. Mumble (Peter Brent), also had a blog going, but he would not allow comments, so everyone came here!
Spot on Ven, but to maintain credibility they can still argue their polls showed a swing roughly approximating non seat polls (albeit uneven) to labor.
Bushfire Bill @ #885 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 3:46 pm
Possum had a bent for sarky politics from a super smart enonometrician. Got into a heap of bother when he proclaimed that “Andrew Bolt should be sodomised by a calculator” regarding his views on Climate Change and global warming. Got a job, got married and lives up in the Tweed Valley somewhere. Still posts on Twitter and here from time to time..
Ven @ #914 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 3:57 pm
Clive Palmer!
Yes it was fun watching Godwin getting caught out. But sadly the Libs escaped the consequences.
I’m waiting for the lies and corruption in NBNco to come out.
You can do a Maiden Speech if you want, gough1.
Andrew Bolt got off lightly with the czlculator.
I don’t the hell remember, frankly, when I came here after deciding not to write for Ad Astra’s blog, ‘The Political Sword’ any more. I was getting mad anxiety attacks at having to file by a deadline, so I thought I’ll just go somewhere I can simply put my 2 cents worth in. I think Grog recommended it to me. He used to comment on The Political Sword before he was famous. 🙂
Bushfire Bill @ #964 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 4:00 pm
Exactly right.
As I’ve said many times Labor lacks the killer instinct and won’t challenge crap when it’s dished up.
In the next period of opposition coming up it needs to think seriously about presenting a kind of deliberative council type ad campaign/history lesson where the record is set straight.
2022 look out. Labor mit kahones will be unbeatable!
I’m in Paterson.
Last I looked Meryl was worth 1.02
But boring around here.
Next poll?
I can’t remember which “blogroll” was which, but I think I either found Possum’s site through the sidebar of this or the other way around. I think I may have come here from Possum
Lord mundo … you’re a delightful broken record.
Bill – I’d tend to agree with that. I was of the same mind throughout the Howard years (when much the same accusation was made). Labor got back into office without having to beat that factor as the result of the endless sunny economic times making that point less scary to people (the same thing that temporarily made people less scared of actually spending money fighting climate change), Workchoices and simply people being tired of Howard after over 10 years of his government. It made them vulnerable to the attack being levelled again when the GFC happened and the economy turned down without it being at all Labor’s fault, and even though independent economists praised Labor’s handling.
I suppose after 20 years of the same message the ALP brass may feel that challenging it head on- especially without many mainstream media voices who would give the challenge the time of day- is just in the too hard basket.
One more thing to be mad at Kim Beazley’s lack of ticker for, I suppose.
Those 2c coins must be piling up…
Nicholas Egan, the next poll is late because they are trying to put out a pants fire.
Hi Cud Chewer, yes Paterson is so quiet this year compared to 2016, when we had visits in the Hunter from both campaigns.
From Tom Cowie on Twitter (@tom_cowie)
All of them look like fairly balanced line-ups, although with the inclusion of Cash, Seven is the one to avoid.
Apparently i posted here in 2010, just to complain about people trolling… I give up complaining these days.
Greensborough Growler @ #956 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 3:57 pm
I drank a bottle of Cab sav the day Frank got booted. Good ridance.
I am in Lilley.
Some report somewhere today said that it was now in the mix.
Bullshit.
I think I started here in 2006, after having spent some time lurking on Possum and The Piping Shrike.
I think I found Loungesuit Larry (?) and ESJ the most difficult posters to put up with.
Cud Chewer says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 4:04 pm
Did the calculator then go to Hockey?
Truthie/Sean/TBA was my favourite Poll Bludger member ever. He was just a non-stop barrage of impotant rage, unintended hilarity, and general stupidity. His reaction to the result of the 2015 QLD state election was genuinely one of the funniest things I’ve ever read on an internet forum.
Certainly smelt like it Barney..
I came here to make friends…. or was it to meet girls? I forget.
Tbh I think Labor have the cojones but have underestimated the online viral dirt campaign. I think they’ve previously had an online advantage but that’s perhaps equalised now? Hopefully their ground game is still superior.
Why are BP’s believe UAP preferences wont go 60/40 to the LNP they are more likely to be conservative voters I would assume. I suppose you want 50/50 as you want to win. Whatever it takes right. I for one am embarrassed that we did a deal with a party that has voters that make me question our voting system. Surely these people would not vote if it was not compulsory. Then again the greens would and they are just as scary but they somehow portrayed as harmless.