Update: YouGov Galaxy seat polls
As explained below, the News Corp papers are releasing YouGov Galaxy seat polls today on an hourly schedule. The results will be updated here as they become available. The polls were conducted Monday and Tuesday from samples of around 550.
Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.
Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.
Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.
La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.
Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.
Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.
Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.
Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.
Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.
Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.
Original post
The Guardian reports Essential Research has concluded its business for the campaign with a poll that reports a 51.5-48.5 lead for Labor, having decided to mark the occasion by reporting its results to the first decimal place. This compares with a rounded result of 52-48 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is on 38.5% (up, probably, from 38% last time), Labor is on 36.2% (up from 34%), the Greens are well down to 9.1% from an inflated-looking 12% last time, and One Nation are on 6.6% (down from 7%). Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 42-31 to 39-32. The poll went to the effort to inquire about which campaign stories had registered with voters – I will be very interested to see the full numbers when Essential Research unloads its full report later today, but apparently Labor’s tax plans, the egging of Scott Morrison and the Daily Telegraph’s inspirational profile of Bill Shorten’s late mother all left an impression.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. It turns out respondents typed up their own responses on election news stories they had noticed and Essential has produced the results in word cloud form, which you can see in the release.
We can also expect national polls from Newspoll and Ipsos over the next day or two – and, starting at 10am this morning, the News Corp papers will today be treating us to an hourly schedule of YouGov Galaxy seat poll releases targeting (deep breath) Flynn at 10am; Macquarie at 11am; La Trobe at noon; Forde at 1pm; Reid at 2pm; Higgins at 3pm; Herbert at 4pm; Gilmore at 5pm; Deakin at 6pm; and Dickson in Queensland at 6pm. Except, it seems, the the Deakin poll is already with us, courtesy of today’s Herald Sun. It credits the Liberals with a lead of 51-49, or a 5.4% swing from the 2016 result. The primary votes are Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 540.
Also:
• The Greens were hawking a poll on Monday conducted by Environmental Research and Counsel, an offshoot of Essential Media, suggesting Josh Frydenberg was in serious difficulty in Kooyong. The poll showed Frydenberg’s primary vote at 41%, slumping from 58% in 2016, with Greens candidate Julian Burnside on 21%, Labor’s Jana Stewart on 16%, and much-touted independent Oliver Yates lagging on 9%. However, Frydenberg maintained a two-party lead over the Greens of 52-48. Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review reported on Tuesday that the Liberals were more confident than that, believing Frydenberg’s primary vote to be at around 48%.
• Andrew Tillett in the Financial Review reported on Monday that Labor was becoming “increasingly bullish about picking up seats in Victoria and Western Australia”. Concerning the former, the report relates that Liberal strategists are “split on whether to pour resources into Higgins, where Liberal candidate Katie Allen is narrowly ahead, or concentrate on other Melbourne marginals such as La Trobe, Casey or Deakin”. As David Crowe of noted in the Sydney Morning Herald on Monday, the Coalition’s $4 billion East West Link motorway commitment was “seen by Labor as an attempt to hold the Liberal electorates of Casey, Deakin and La Trobe”, none of which it would be so high on its priorities list if it was feeling confident.
• A slightly different view of the situation in Western Australia is provided by Andrew Burrell of The Australian, who reports Labor has scaled back its ambitions in the state, which once ran to five seats. Swan is said to be Labor’s best chance of a gain, and Labor says its internal polling has Pearce at 50-50, but the Liberals claim to be slightly ahead. But Labor sources sound discouraged about Hasluck, and the party is no longer bothering with Canning. Stirling, however, is said to be “close”. Scott Morrison visited the state on Monday, paying special attention to Swan; Bill Shorten followed the next day, where he campaigned in Pearce.
Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Perth seat of Swan.
i think hope an epoch has ended in oz and on blog – both of course will continue
past ten years since 2009 and defeat of environment bill has been tortured journey which hopefully will soon end
this site has been a bit of torchbearer or light during those perplexing worrying years
hence memories
yes there have been many many pseudo characters – Frank Calabrese Tom Paine etc etc
many gone, hence question who has remained
good to hear from many on eve of this penultimate election
i have been here since rudd and 2007 – only changed name once
I didn’t start posting here until the lead-up to the 2013 election, but had been lurking for a year or two prior to that
Donald Trump grants full pardon to jailed former Daily Telegraph owner Conrad Black
Lord Black, a Conservative peer, has written a book and articles praising Trump and the two have described each other as ‘friends’
Donald Trump has granted a full pardon to the disgraced former media mogul and Daily Telegraph owner Conrad Black, telling the Conservative peer he hoped it would “expunge the bad wrap you got”.
Lord Black of Crossharbour, a Canadian-born British citizen, was the head of Hollinger International, which once owned the Daily Telegraph, Chicago Sun-Times, Jerusalem Post and hundreds of community papers in the US and Canada.
But he was found guilty in 2007 of fraud and obstruction of justice and jailed for more than three years in the US. Jurors convicted Lord Black of defrauding shareholders of $6.1m (£4.7m) by paying himself a tax-free bonus from the sale of newspapers, without board approval.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-conrad-black-pardon-daily-telegraph-owner-hollinger-a8916036.html
Are you a raving heterosexual nath?
Dan Gulberry @ #983 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 4:09 pm
From the promos on 7 they also have Alan Jones and Kennett. No thankyou. Will look elsewhere.
For those wondering about how QLD might play out, let me share this observation.
About 20km after you pass Eumundi, which is the turn off to head into Noosa on the Sunshine Coast, north of Brisbane – you next hit Gympie.
The first thing you see driving into Gympie is a big billboard advertising the annual Gympie Muster, a country music festival – this is then followed by a big sign advertising the local gun shop.
That is how quickly you transition from one state of mind to the next – from south east QLD to north QLD.
The swing will be all in the SE corner in this current political environment.
Cud Chewer @ #980 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 4:08 pm
I have a wealth of opinions, Cud, as you know. 🙂
nath says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 4:11 pm
I came here to make friends…. or was it to meet girls? I forget.
From memory you claimed to have been sent by god to balance the blog. Trouble for you was, on this blog, gods sometimes speaks.
Bushfire Bill @ #964 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 4:00 pm
Began earlier , back when The Rodent started putting out bullshit about interest rates and the economy under Labor . It pissed me right off that Kimbo and crew just ‘sat there’ and did not forcefully defend Labor’s economic track record. Should have been stamped on from the start. Too late now.
Cheap and cheerful: Chancellor & Co Brut Cuvée Sparkling from BWS ($5 a bottle.)
(I’ve set aside a Satyr by Sileni Estates Sparkling Sauv. Blanc; ~$15, from memory.)
Cud Chewer
says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 4:12 pm
Are you a raving heterosexual nath?
______________________
I came here after doing a 10 years stretch in Port Phillip Prison. I found I missed the feeling of being cooped up with nutters and assorted freaks. So I found a place to replicate that experience.
But Middleman
The Tramcar Bakery pies there are the best in the world.
BTW I am actually the Sun God.
@Rhino- nothing in the Longman campaign to produce a late swing to Labor like that. Endless media stories about how Shorten’s leadership would be challenged as a result of the “likely” loss, though. Just another demonstration that the sampling and weighting all the pollsters rely upon doesn’t seem to work well enough in the more limited environment of a single seat.
bushfire bill has always been worth a read – once of more erudite contributors
if sat is trainwreck it will truly be back to drawing board in big way and not sure this is right place for deeper planning and thinking however i am sure future will be built on labor victory, one big step in right direction of reform and rebuilding this blessed land
So…4:00pm poll?
What’s going on here?
Marcos, I would be surprised if Lilley was in the mix. The LNP candidate is not the strongest.
You are not out of place, Nath.
If you can’t find Dickens, try Cummins.
50/50 Herbert
Herbert 50/50 (0.0 change)
Marcos, I left out the mobility scooter shop that actually comes in between those two signs I mentioned!
Some are even worth stating C@t 🙂
Herbert is a retain.
Brian I haven’t tried that brand.
Anyway, I thought the other one was Dixon.
Lynch
My thoughts exactly.
But, boy oh boy, can he lop trees.
gough1 @ #1006 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 4:15 pm
Gough always was, and always will be.
So you figured you’d raise the average IQ of both places nath?
gough1
says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 4:15 pm
BTW I am actually the Sun God.
__________________
See, we had one of these guys in my units too.
@steelydan.
In 2013, the Palmer United party distributed htv cards with the Libs above labor. The end result was 53/47 to the liberals
Some of those pup voters are pure protest votes. They are likely to vote labor this time even though they voted liberal last time. Vote against the current govt.
People who follow htvs will have voted liberal last time and will do so this time.
People who use free will to decide will probably do what they did last time.
I see a good reason why preference flowswill be more friendly to labor than last election. No one has ever provided a reason why they think the opposite. Keeping in mind that Palmer gave liberal friendly htvs in 2013
These polls are SO predictable.
Clearly pushing the narrative that the LNP are still in it.
herbert a bit of a surprise, 50-50 I am heartened by that.
The Higgins poll from a couple of days ago had Labor 30% primary vote – sample 400.
Today it’s Labor 18% – sample 538.
Split the difference (i.e. meta poll) & it’s either a Labor or Greens seat, as their combined primary vote is 54%. Definitely not Liberal win.
Still no Hebert
Since everyone is posting about when they joined this blog and remembering other posters gone-by, I thought I’d remind people that I joined last year, having been a lurker on PB for many years, also going back to 2007.
Yes, they were great times. Labor was winning the election and finally putting the Howard years to rest.
On a few personal notes, my parents lived in Bennelong and had the honour of helping John Howard to an early retirement. They were of course unhappy to see Maxine McKew lose the seat three years later.
Four years later their health declined dramatically and I lost both of them three and two years ago.
I wonder at times what they would make of this.
If I could indulge bludgers a littler further, May 18 is also the wedding anniversary of my brother, who married that day in 1974 _ also an election day.
Unhappily, my brother died six years ago. I think that may have accelerated my parents’ decline.
I still miss him and always wonder what he would be saying today.
Therefore, as in 1974, I hope for a Labor victory and I will be thinking of my family, who also would have wanted a Labor win.
Thanks for those of you who see fit to indulge me in this.
Cud Chewer @ #1016 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 4:16 pm
Thank you, Cud. And if I knew where you were I would even gift you one of the many bottles of alcoholic stuff I have won at trivia nights but never drunk, for being so kind. 🙂
I think people tend to forget that many populist voters are anti-incumbent shit-stirrers.
Which is why those voters preferences ARE actually difficult to track or project.
Fuzzy,
“What’s going on here?”
I think it shows how much Galaxy was out in its 2016 polling, usually in favour of the Libs. In other words, single seat polls should be taken with a pinch of salt.
Middle
There used to be a sign outside the town years ago.
Welcome to Gympie – The Town that Saved Queensland.
I used to live there.
Made me cringe every time that I saw it.
Awww 🙂
William – Which media gig are you working Saturday night ?
Lynchpin:
Impressive hands, though.
I started lurking in 2007 but have only recently (and infrequently) begun posting.
I used to enjoy the posts from MySay and Oz Pol Tragic. Also remember Ron who left PB perhaps a year after I first started lurking. Can remember the day I realised that Bushfire Bill lived (then) not far from me, because he challenged someone from( I think) Q’land to a duel on the Cheltenham Oval. I seem to recall that the offer was declined. Was it Truthy or someone else?
Any way, all good fun.
Anyone remember the “Fatt Wanklin” scandal?
William got into trouble over that from News Corp, and was very kind not to ban the PB contributor who sockpuppeted Mr Wanklin.
Given that the incumbent is unchanged, presumably that means that preference flows from the 2016 election should be about right.
So the LNP in Herbert takes a hit on the primary vote and gets the whole lot back in prefs? Am I the only one who finds that a bit suss?
With that many ‘others’ in Herbert The actuall 2pp could be almost anything
These seat polls have told us very little, as expected. Apart front
Here being s big swing on in Victoria, which everyone already knew.
That and Qld potentially stuffing it all up. Which we also already knew.
I think of all the ads that wrote themselves which never appeared the ones about 6 deficits and doubling debt surprised and disappointed the most.
It could have gone some way to ameliorating the ‘can’r manage money’ crap…..
Oh, 2022 look out!