The final Ipsos poll for the ex-Fairfax papers records an improvement in the Coalition primary vote and a tightening on two-party preferred, with Labor now leading at 51-49, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The Coalition primary vote is at 39%, up three, although this comes at the expense of minor parties rather than Labor, who are steady on 33%. Ipsos continues to look low for Labor and high for the Greens, although the latter are down one to 13%. One Nation is down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party is credited at 3%, in the first result the pollster has produced for the party. The poll includes a breakout for those who have already voted, on which the Coalition interestingly records a lead of 53-47.
The Ipsos preference flow splits both One Nation and United Australia Party preferences 53-47, and while Fairfax’s reportage says this is based on the last election, the One Nation flow in 2016 was actually pretty much 50-50, while the United Australia Party result seems to be speculative. It is similar to the Palmer United Party flow of 53.67-46.33 in 2013, but not quite the same.
On personal ratings, Scott Morrison records a slightly improved result, being up one on approval to 48% and down one on disapproval to 43%, while Bill Shorten’s position improves more substantially, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 48%. However, Morrison slightly extends his lead as preferred prime minister, from 45-40 to 47-40. The poll was conducted Sunday to Wednesday from a larger than usual sample of 1842.
Also out today was the following barrage of seat polls from YouGov Galaxy in the News Corp papers, conducted on Monday and Tuesday:
Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.
Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.
Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.
La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.
Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.
Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.
Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.
Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.
Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.
Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.
Shellbell says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 8:22 pm
I was just about to mention that, thanks for posting. I watched it earlier.
What a contrast with Morrison today!
Answering journalists’ questions!
Who’d have thunk you could do that?
Bill seems to have got the idea.
That’s good shellbell.
Journos puffing on the lung biscuits, scotch all round.
Good old days.
Precisely. Any reasonable person watching those two interview would see there is a world of difference. One is a decent human being who will become a competent Prime Minster. The other a dodgy salesman who is hiding things.
What I find interesting here is that when rusted on Libs watch this, they’ll automatically revert to emotionally baked in responses. The “Labor are bad economic managers”. The idea that the only thing that will create growth is tax cuts and lower regulation. Stuff that’s been debunked for 40 years now.
Why does this persist? Because Labor consistently fails to tackle the big, persistent, bad ideas out there and it fails to do this between elections. This is something I’ve said 3 and 6 years ago. That there’s lots of people in the community who vote Liberal because they have their heads scrambled. They believe in nonsense and they are emotionally attached to nonsense. And if I could have 5 minutes with Shorten the advice I’d give is that Labor needs to fight these bad ideas.
Shorten is going to win. But it should never be this close. And no its not about adopting Greens policies or doing this or that. Its about educating ordinary people about simple things. Like a fairer society is also a more productive economy. That money spent on people and health and education also grows the economy. That trickle down economics is a dangerous lie. Yes, this gets a mention here and there, but Labor doesn’t as an organisation do the hard yards. I just hope that this time, they do.
Sales read this out on her show.
Wondered who would be first Tory to sneer at Hawke.
Abbott was short priced favourite
He bolted in
Lincoln says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 8:32 pm
Hawke was such a very different leader to Shorten. Sensibly, he had left Socialist Economics in the dusty shelves of history, de-regulated the economy, kept the Unions on a leash and introduced alcoholism to to the CV of Prime Ministership.
______________________
Not sure about that. At least Hawkey was sober as PM. Edmund Barton was not called ‘tosspot’ because he tossed pots. 🙂
“Now is not the time, but people need to have a long hard think about what kind of legacy the Hawke Keating years left behind.
A deregulated, deindustrialized, deunionized economy primed to make the liberal party the natural party of government at the federal level, when the end of the cold war should have swung things labor’s way.
Put it this way ,by the time Howard got onto office other than flog off telecom there wasn’t much left for him to do, the neo liberal order had already arrived courtesy of a “labor”government.
_________________________
A better question may have been how a Hawke government could have stopped these things happening without international investment drying up. Perhaps they went a little too far in some areas, but it also coincided with one of the most generous welfare arrangements in Australian history.”
Feck: another one. … of course it was ‘proper and respectful’ to preface your comments with a po faced ‘now is not the time’ before laying a giant turd of lib-lab: neoliberalism boo on this august forum.
Shenanigans. Now is exactly the time: to put you piss ant pop leftists well and truly on your collective arse. What Hawke did went way beyond merely triage – which is what naff is suggesting.
I’ll start the ball rolling by reposting this:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/14/the-hawke-keating-agenda-was-laborism-not-neoliberalism-and-is-still-a-guiding-light
Vale Bob. Thank you for help creating #modernlaborism.
Vale Bob Hawke. I think there’s a beer in the fridge.
Vale Bob Hawke.
Fozzie @ 8.21pm
“41+35+10+9+3=98 so Others 2? So if Libs lost 3.7 since last election
Where in the hell did the NEW 9+3 for UAP and ON come from???
This stinks to High Heaven as iffy as ”
From 2016 results:
Family first = 4.2
Liberal Dems =2.8
Others = 3.4
Total = 10.4%
Libs = -3.7%
Total available = 14.1%
UAP+PHON = 12%
Others = 2%
Total = 14%
A bit of rounding of course.
DR
Leroy, I’d say it’s partly weighting, and partly that the improving trend for the Coalition means their increase was already priced in to an extent.
Imagination is central to policy making..
Too fucking right Bob!
Thought Abbott’s middle name was John…
One thing or the other has caused a huge shift in the betting markets. Coalition just shot out to $7.00 on Betfair.
Jenauthor:
Yikes, what a class free dumpster person Abbott is.
Shellbell @ #83 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 8:22 pm
My sincere thanks to you!
Nostradamus what a truly low comment. Politicing the death of one of Australia’s greatest PM’s. Have some decency.
Vale Bob Hawke.
Only saw Hawke in public once.
He was visiting WA in early 8os and was at the Bunbury races.
Still an opposition MP he attracted plenty of greetings as he walked past the bar (yep hard to believe)
Every well wisher was greeted with a wave or a smile.
A great Australian.
Good on ya Bob.
Bob Hawke and Paul Keating implemented change that was inevitable. They guided it so that as far as possible, everyone benefited. The Coalition would have let the 1% snaffle up all the gains, piously declaring that it would trickle down to everyone else.
A quintessential example of Bob’s irreverence:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMa0j5A3nWw
See you on the other side, Bob.
Henry @ #102 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 6:35 pm
And Michelle Grattan was still wearing the same glasses nearly 40 years ago!
https://twitter.com/elliott_brennan/status/1061059626425143296
“One thing or the other has caused a huge shift in the betting markets. Coalition just shot out to $7.00 on Betfair.”
Must be the unsurprising seat polls and status quo on the fed polls.
Lots of money to go on an alp win in the next 24 hours I predict
Standing up after Tijaneman square was remarkable
Nath – Australia could have gone down a German or Scandinavian path, but we didn’t because Labor caught the neoliberal bug that was sweeping the English speaking world.
As for unions membership was sixty percent when Labor came to power, by the time they left it had halved, the most dramatic fall in Australian history, and with Keating introducing enterprise bargaining it wasn’t hard to see that they were heading for the dustbin of history in the private sector.
Just on today’s seat polls. It is it just a coincidence that all 5 of the seats with sample sizes given (over 500) showed swings to Labor and Forde and Herbert which had undisclosed sample sizes did not.
Sad news indeed.
In comparison to Abbott Kerryen Phelps had a minutes silence at her meeting when news broke.
The liberal exchanged boat people for people accused of murder.
Sports bet pay out on a Labor win.
And Bob, the man responsible for the modern Australian economy, misses the Victory.
What a night.
Vale Bob Hawke, one of the greats by any measure.
KK then and now.
I’m glad the old silver bodgie mended fences with Keating before he went.
Of course reading the last chapter of Hazel Hawke’s autobiography where she looks forward to their post PM togetherness is heart-rending.
I appreciate the sensitivities but hope she is well remembered in the memorials.
One of the secrets of Bob Hawke’s success as PM was that there wasn’t a single sector of society that could look at him and truthfully say that he just didn’t give a stuff about them. Keating, Howard and Abbott certainly didn’t have that quality. Rudd, Gillard and Turnbull did, but not to the same extent as Hawke.
I’m trying to blame the onions but I cooked dinner 3 hours ago…
Is there a poster here calling himself the Silver Bodgie?
gough1,
All the seat polls would have approx the same sample sizes.
Re Herbert. No swing but labor vote holding. So good poll for labor given seat polls are somewhat iffy at times.
Vale Bob, and thanks for bringing Australia into the modern world system and for giving us or greatest PM, PJK. (Shame about the internal shit fight however).
Vale Bob.
Abbott’s comment “A Labor heart but a Liberal head” ??
doGs but Aboot is a nasty fwit. 🙁
And an idiot to politicize if so quickly.
Last phone banking tonight and everyone looking forward to Saturday. 🙂
And an interesting snippet on pre-polls. 🙂
Word is that the AEC will begin counting of pre-polls, in secure fashion, on Saturday before polls close.
Jaeger @ #125 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 8:46 pm
A sincere thank you for the reminder. So much. That’s the Australia I fondly remember.
Rossmcg:
Yes.
The Age backs Shorten!
https://www.theage.com.au/national/shorten-has-made-a-compelling-case-for-change-20190516-p51o1a.html
Credit where credit is due.
Morrison’s response to the news of Hawkie’s passing is very respectful. Compare that with the totally graceless response from Abbott.
It’s good to see the Twitersphere is giving Abbott a full broadside for his response.
https://twitter.com/TonyAbbottMHR/status/1128969163911811072
Thanks Doyley. Seat polls actually good for labor if you actually take any notice of them at all. Just wondered why sample sizes were not disclosed for the seats mentioned.
On the Murdoch Press web sites, they have emblazened their news on Bob Hawke with distracting ads pumping up Palmer.
Make of that what you will
It was the Age which wot wun it!
Bob Hawke was a great man, and has left our nation modern, free and outward looking.
I first met Bob in 1980, at Sydney University front lawn. It was the election campaign, Malcolm Fraser was PM and Bill Hayden Opposition Leader. Being an impressionable student, I had been influenced by Marxist thought and the contemporary philosophers, Gramsci, Louis Althusser and anarchist thought.
So Bob Hawke as ACTU President and candidate for Wills was doing a speech at an ALP rally on the front lawn, a historic location with the Gothic quad in the background. A large crowd was there, and we sat towards the front expecting a bourgeois apologist to defend the establishment. How wrong we were.
Bob was a brilliant and charismatic speaker on the stump. Not only his delivery, but his content rooted in the working class struggle and social justice. The sceptical crowd were in thrall, as we realised this guy was something special. An enduring effect on me and many others.
Got to shake his hand, and subsequently got to work for him briefly, however I arrived in Canberra during the difficult year 1991 when the PJK was making his challenges and it was not pleasant.
Really?