Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

Ipsos maintains the narrowing trend to the last, as a barrage of seat polls show uniformly tight contests.

The final Ipsos poll for the ex-Fairfax papers records an improvement in the Coalition primary vote and a tightening on two-party preferred, with Labor now leading at 51-49, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The Coalition primary vote is at 39%, up three, although this comes at the expense of minor parties rather than Labor, who are steady on 33%. Ipsos continues to look low for Labor and high for the Greens, although the latter are down one to 13%. One Nation is down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party is credited at 3%, in the first result the pollster has produced for the party. The poll includes a breakout for those who have already voted, on which the Coalition interestingly records a lead of 53-47.

The Ipsos preference flow splits both One Nation and United Australia Party preferences 53-47, and while Fairfax’s reportage says this is based on the last election, the One Nation flow in 2016 was actually pretty much 50-50, while the United Australia Party result seems to be speculative. It is similar to the Palmer United Party flow of 53.67-46.33 in 2013, but not quite the same.

On personal ratings, Scott Morrison records a slightly improved result, being up one on approval to 48% and down one on disapproval to 43%, while Bill Shorten’s position improves more substantially, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 48%. However, Morrison slightly extends his lead as preferred prime minister, from 45-40 to 47-40. The poll was conducted Sunday to Wednesday from a larger than usual sample of 1842.

Also out today was the following barrage of seat polls from YouGov Galaxy in the News Corp papers, conducted on Monday and Tuesday:

Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.

Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.

Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.

La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.

Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.

Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.

Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.

Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.

Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.

Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

490 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Greenpeace Aus Pac Verified account @GreenpeaceAP 5 minutes ago

    Bob Hawke also led the global decision to stop mining in Antarctica and it’s still protected today. #RIPBobHawke

  2. In grade 2 I was the darling of the teacher because I was the only one who knew who was the PM and LOTO. Mainly because the imagery of a Hawke going up against a Peacock seemed such a one sided contest to me.

  3. In 1987 I voted informal for the first time thanks to the actions of the Hawke government. How could a labor leader so brazenly piss on the altar of socialist principles?

    As I matured I realised that Australia needed economic reform and that only a Labor government could neuter the union movement to achieve this.

    My feelings about Hawke remain mixed

  4. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 9:01 pm
    adrian @ #98 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 8:34 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #48 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 8:06 pm

    Nostradamus @ #39 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 8:02 pm

    What a wretched omen for Shorten.
    As far as Labor leaders go, Hawke wasn’t bad. My thoughts and prayers are with his family. It is the end of an era for viable Labor.

    You can get fucked , cretin.

    +1

    +2

    And when he gets there he can fuck off some more.
    ==============================================================================
    +3 what a Tory grub.

  5. For all his virtues, Hawke remains an ambivalent figure.
    He and Keating abandoned social democratic principles for neoliberalism and a more unequal, less kind society.
    The Hawke-Keating years were the equivalent of “Rogernomics” in Australia. The Howard years were “Ruthanasia”.
    Whitlam however was a leader who is truly mourned and remembered.

  6. TraceyCorbinMatchett @traceycm74 9 minutes ago

    As a child struggling with my Nan’s death, I wrote to PM Bob Hawke, to help my young mind understand why we die. His letter back to me is my most treasured childhood memory! #RIPBobHawke #votesoutforBOB

  7. Saw Bob Hawke in Bathurst in the early 70s when he was ACTU President. He spoke at the Civic Centre. Went there with classmates from a local school and remember well how a guy in my year got up to ask a question. He was a bit of a smart-arse and he though he could match Bob. He got creamed.

  8. So sad, the passing of Bob Hawke tonight. Australia would be much more like the US today were it not for the great achievements of his government, especially Medicare. If only he had lived another three days to see and savour the coming return of Labor to government.

    Farewell, Bob. We owe you and we miss you.

  9. Watching that Press Club video of Hawke that Shellbell posted. The male journos all posture and ask gotcha questions which Hawke shoots down with disdainful humour. Lotsa laughs all round at their expense.

    But the women journos ask real questions and are treated with greater seriousness and respect from Hawke.

  10. I remember learning about the election between Bob Hawke and Andrew Peacock going on at the time (1990), and being very young, I only understand they were two people trying to be Prime Minister (which I probably saw more as some sort of paternal figure than a political one at that age.) But, because they both had last names that were homophones of types of birds, I tried to sound smart and started talking about “John Owl” being a PM or something (it’s a vague memory) because child me thought all the people wanting to be PM just had the names of birds.

  11. imacca @ 8:54 pm

    “And an interesting snippet on pre-polls.

    Word is that the AEC will begin counting of pre-polls, in secure fashion, on Saturday before polls close.”

    I would doubt that. Paragraph 265(1)(a) of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 says:

    (1) The scrutiny shall be conducted as follows:

    (a) It shall commence as soon as practicable after the closing of the poll;”.

    Perhaps what they are planning is an early start of the preliminary scrutiny of pre-poll declaration votes, which on a quick reading doesn’t seem to be precluded by the Act. But that’s simply a process of checking the data on the envelopes to determine whether the voter was in fact entitled to vote; not the same as sorting ballot papers.

  12. No Prime Minister celebrated truly with a nation like Bob Hawke did when Australia II won the America’s Cup in 1983. A memory of his genuine joy on the TV has stayed with me always. Really made his mark in such a positive way. Peace be with you Great Man.

  13. I met Bob Hawke in 1988 when he came to Strathfield North Primary School to open our Bicentenary Garden, which I and other Dads had built. Peter Barron, who was his ‘fixer’ (and Sam Dastyari’s father-in-law) had kids at the school, as did I.

    We had a cup of tea and a nice chat. Good bloke.

    Vale, Bob

  14. Saw (but didn’t meet) Bob Hawke at a Labor rally for the 1974 election at Bankstown Town Hall. Up on the stage were the then Labor Prime Minister, Gough Whitlam, and two future Labor PM’s, Bob Hawke and the young local member Paul Keating. Also a future Labor Premier of NSW, but then Opposition Leader, Neville Wran.

  15. Interesting set of marginal seat results. On their own MOE and polling issues too big to be taken 2 seriously but averaged or aggregated in various ways should reduce the “scattiness”.

    The NSW seats show the biggest diversion from the BludgerTrack figures. Average swing to Labor 2.7+2.7+0.8/3=2.1%. BT showing +1.7% to LNP. Variation 3.8%. Over

    Qld. Average swing to Labor is 0+(-2)+ 0.6+0.7/4= -0.2. BT showing +2.8% to Labor. Variation 3.0%. Under.

    Vic. Average swing to Labor (Greens in Higgins but would be similar in reverse) 5.4+3.2+5.4/3=4.7%. BT showing +3.1% to Labor. Variation 1.6%. Over.

    The big unknown with Qld is the ON/UAP preference split. 55/45 instead of 60/40 produces extra votes to Labor of 2.25% Herbert, 1.75% Flynn, 1.1% Forde and 1.2% Dickson. Average shift 1.6%. Still a substantial variance of 1.4% Under cf BT.

    The other interesting variant is an average 1.3% drop in Greens vote across 10 seats. That becomes 1.8% for 9 seats apart from Higgins which is distorting the figures to some extent. Assuming adjustments for voting ages in polls it shouldn’t be an issue but I’m wondering if some of the young Greens voters went missing for some reason – sick of process, having some fun with pollsters or whatever. Alternatively “briefly” has got to them! We will know soon enough.

  16. Just thinking about that 1980 Sydney Uni speech, Tony Abbott was there – along with his Engineering crew of thugs, heckling up the back. Abbott was a real weirdo, even back then. He used to show up at our Economics lectures wearing a suit and tie.

  17. Vale Bob Hawke.

    Your last act has ensured that Labor achievements dominate the media cycle day before the election, all but guaranteeing a Labor victory.

  18. For all his virtues, Hawke remains an ambivalent figure.
    He and Keating abandoned social democratic principles for neoliberalism and a more unequal, less kind society.
    The Hawke-Keating years were the equivalent of “Rogernomics” in Australia. The Howard years were “Ruthanasia”.

    Notwithstanding it just isn’t the night for this sort of crap, it ascribes to Bob and Paul many of the outcomes that were delivered by Howard. It assumes the economics inevitably lead to the negative distribution problems, rather than seeing those as a separate and quite different failure. Because on one level the economic reforms were / are massively and scarily successful.

    If one were to be kind, what is perhaps untested is if the economic reforms could have been melded with positive social outcomes or whether the two were inseparably married. I don’t believe they were inseparably married. For example now if the pension had kept pace or better with the wealth growth, there would be no concerns with the franking credits. It is only because we seem to have given the wealthy franking credits (and worse cash outs) instead of paying a reasonable and fair pension that the tension arises. It is inexcusable that 98% of the wealth we generated has gone to the already very wealthy, but there isn’t a lot of evidence we had no choice but to do it that way.

    I think, frankly, we were just outsmarted in the class warfare the super wealthy waged against us.

  19. Rational Leftist
    says:
    because child me thought all the people wanting to be PM just had the names of birds.
    ________________________________
    I think I was under the same delusion at some point.

  20. grimace:

    Are you going to post a final PB seat prediction before Saturday? Some PBers might want to change their predictions.

  21. To all of those who still have work to do ensuring the victory of hope over fear..
    Some dialogue from the movie Battleship

    Prepare to fire!
    Sir, which weapons?
    All of them!

  22. Couldn’t agree more Cameron, people on here look on politics like football, he was Labor,their mt ream, he won elections, he was a good Prime Minister.

    Maybe they should do a bit of research as to what happened to the division of the profit share between Labour and Capital under Hawke and Keating and that is just the start of it.

    Along with the Lange government in New Zealand they were the original “new Labour” Thatcherism with a bit of a side serve of cultural “marxism” to keep the middle class left happy

  23. “Your last act has ensured that Labor achievements dominate the media cycle day before the election,”

    LoL! Labor to the last. Good on him. 🙂

  24. Dan Andrews tribute:

    Victorian premier Daniel Andrews:

    More than any other, Bob Hawke was the people’s prime minister. Australians saw themselves in him, and he saw himself in us. The son of a school teacher and a minister, he grew up in the most ordinary of circumstance.

    And yet that boy from Bordertown would leave us with the most extraordinary legacy. In the coming days, that legacy will be remembered in a multitude of different ways.

    Rhodes Scholar. Yard Drinker. Staunch Unionist. Member for Wills. Labor’s longest serving Prime Minister.

    But for so many in our movement, he was and will always be the father of Medicare. The man who made sure that most fundamental right – healthcare – was afforded to every Australian. The man who created the foundation of fairness on which our modern nation was built.”

  25. WWP

    To your point. I think Germany was the model Hawke was following. I seem to remember it being mentioned a lot in connection with the Accord.

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