The final Ipsos poll for the ex-Fairfax papers records an improvement in the Coalition primary vote and a tightening on two-party preferred, with Labor now leading at 51-49, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The Coalition primary vote is at 39%, up three, although this comes at the expense of minor parties rather than Labor, who are steady on 33%. Ipsos continues to look low for Labor and high for the Greens, although the latter are down one to 13%. One Nation is down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party is credited at 3%, in the first result the pollster has produced for the party. The poll includes a breakout for those who have already voted, on which the Coalition interestingly records a lead of 53-47.
The Ipsos preference flow splits both One Nation and United Australia Party preferences 53-47, and while Fairfax’s reportage says this is based on the last election, the One Nation flow in 2016 was actually pretty much 50-50, while the United Australia Party result seems to be speculative. It is similar to the Palmer United Party flow of 53.67-46.33 in 2013, but not quite the same.
On personal ratings, Scott Morrison records a slightly improved result, being up one on approval to 48% and down one on disapproval to 43%, while Bill Shorten’s position improves more substantially, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 48%. However, Morrison slightly extends his lead as preferred prime minister, from 45-40 to 47-40. The poll was conducted Sunday to Wednesday from a larger than usual sample of 1842.
Also out today was the following barrage of seat polls from YouGov Galaxy in the News Corp papers, conducted on Monday and Tuesday:
Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.
Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.
Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.
La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.
Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.
Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.
Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.
Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.
Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.
Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.
Like many Poms, my first taste of Bob Hawke was the iconic footage of him after Australia won the Americas Cup. I know there was so much more to the man and his many achievements, but to see a national leader clearly, genuinely having a ball, along with the rest of the country was so refreshing in comparison with the Anglo norm that it remains my lasting impression 35 years later. RIP to the wily old bugger.
On a more practical note, I guess this news, sad as it is, will overwhelm any Friday surprise that Newscorp might have had planned. Maybe Bob’s done one last service to the ALP.
Just after Hawke lost to Keating I was down in Sydney competing in the Australian Surf Lifesaving Titles, As we were crossing the Harbour bridge, a limo with him in the back came alongside our mini bus. Mate Chook, a huge Hawkey fan , was driving, and started blowing the horn and calling out. Hawkey wound down the window, and shot out, his whole torso out the window to wild cheering in the bus.
Never forget it.
Vale
Bill Shorten’s statement on the passing of Bob Hawke:
In a statement on Thursday night, Mr Shorten said Mr Hawke was a “leader of conviction – and a builder of consensus”.
“In Australian history, in Australian politics, there will always be B.H. and A.H: Before Hawke and After Hawke. After Hawke, we were a different country. A kinder, better, bigger and bolder country,” Mr Shorten said.
“The Australian people loved Bob Hawke because they knew Bob loved them, this was true to the very end.
“At our Labor launch I told Bob we loved him, I promised we would win for him. I said the same to him the next day at his home, when I visited.
“I gave the man who inspired me to go into politics a gentle hug, I tried to tell him what he meant to me, what he meant to all of us. I couldn’t quite find the right words, few of us can, when we’re face to face with our heroes.
“But Bob knew. He knew what he meant to Australia, he knew what he had achieved for the country. He knew he was loved, right to the end.”
Lawrence Mooney has just given a wonderful and moving valedictory for Bob Hawke on AFL360 on foxtel. He broke the news of Bob’s death and Gerard and Robbo were also moved. Powerful stuff.
Bob Hawke.
He could engage people.
He had political courage.
Captured the nations imagination.
A genuine leader.
Bob Hawke is the worldwide #1 trend on Twitter right now as tributes continue to pour in for him from across the globe.
Are we expecting Newspoll tonight?
My god, Tony is getting hammered on Twitter! (more please)
Tony Abbott copping it from all and sundry tonight, due to him claiming Bob Hawke as a Liberal. This spray from Peter Beattie is typical..
“I was on the ALP national conference & national executive when Hawke led on the key reforms which changed Australia for the better. Of course he and Keating had to win the arguments but he had the guts to lead. You didn’t. History will judge Hawke as a giant. You a midget twitter.com/tonyabbottmhr/…
Just been robopolled by galaxy.
Gender, age, voting intention, satisfaction (or dis) with Shorten or Morrison and preferred prime minister.
Sadly Bob Hawke was not an option in last question.
The pollsters never rest.
C@tmomma @ #168 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 9:06 pm
Met Bob back in the seventies he has always been a hero of mine, i am devastated.
Dee Madigan
Verified account
@deemadigan
9m9 minutes ago
More
From Bill Shorten: Every Australian carries a monument to Bob Hawke with them, their Medicare card. A green-and-gold promise that the health of any one of us, matters to all of us.
https://twitter.com/owenwareham/status/1128976391934959617
Possibly NSFW
Diogenes @ #76 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 8:19 pm
Dio
Kudos to you. I remember we all felt pretty good about a PBer working it out.
I’d forgotten the Peter Slipper episode. Kudos to BB
Lots of interesting moments on PB and a really sad one tonight. I was hoping Bob could hang on but perhaps he knew it would be OK for Bill.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/16/asia/bob-hawke-australia-prime-minister-intl/index.html
There’s an awful lot of anecdotal evidence of people, at the end of their lives hanging on until they’re confident that their loved ones are alright without them. Maybe Hawkie decided that Australia is going to be OK. Onwards to Saturday everyone…..
Abbott’s statement on Hawke is just typical look at me trolling by the weathervane.
Greensborough Growler says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 9:35 pm
Dee Madigan
Verified account
@deemadigan
9m9 minutes ago
More
From Bill Shorten: Every Australian carries a monument to Bob Hawke with them, their Medicare card. A green-and-gold promise that the health of any one of us, matters to all of us.
==============================================================================
Now I have a tear.
Vale Bob Hawke.
Bob Hawke was a very different character and a very different person as Prime Minister and with plenty of honesty and wit. The economic changes brought in by Hawke and Keating were a shift away from traditional Labor. But the government thru the Accord attempted and in many ways succeeded to make the changes within a social wage, social democratic framework.
This process did set in train a shift in influence and $ from working people to capital. In part this was caused by the dramatic reduction in union membership which occurred with the shift to big industry unions and changes to the IR system. Working people themselves must take a fair share of the responsibility for this. Stop paying your union membership, attending union meetings, training etc and surprise – the whole workers movement loses.
Three Labor greats.
Julia G says it well.
And watching ScoMo on 7:30.
Did he just say he is an economist??
imacca – yes he did.
Bob Hawke used to make a big show of asking my mother for racing tips when he met her at Rosehill Members Stand. She called him “Mr Hawke”. He called her “Kitty”.
He made an even bigger show of asking her for tips when one of them came in at 20:1!
Mick Dittman, one of the prominent jockies of the 1980s was our next door neighbour at the time, and the source of Kitty’s wisdom. Hawkey never found that out.
Or maybe he did.
imacca:
Yes he did.
https://twitter.com/abc730/status/1128958746527293441
The 730 intro to his interview said he studied science at uni. Sales didn’t pull him up on that bold statement though.
Vale Bob.
This means the last day of the campaign and election day will be wall-to-wall hagiolatry and veneration – and the RWNJs not being able to resist having a dig. This is worth a 3-4% swing.
Bob, the old agnostic, might just be proving the existence of a god other than himself.
I just missed being old enough to vote for him in 83, but that was the first election I was politicised and barracking for him to win.
To those idiots from the Lunar Left who have slithered in here tonight to criticise Bob Hawke, and Paul Keating, for the Accord, can I just say that you have no idea what you are talking about.
As has been said elsewhere, what Australia got as a result of the Accord, and the lowering of the Tariff Barrier and the other macroeconomic reforms of Hawke and Keating, was a reorganisation that enabled Australia to be transformed from the moribund economy that the Liberal and Country Parties had created from the lingering after effects of the Menzies era, through the Fraser era with John Howard as Treasurer. We were, as Lee Kuan Yew characterised us, ‘The Poor White Trash of Asia’. Australia needed to break that yoke and it was only the brave, far-sighted decisions of Bob Hawke and Paul Keating that enabled it to happen.
I mean, just imagine what the country would have been like if we had stayed the same! In the era of Thatcher, Reagan and a rampant Rupert Murdoch smashing the Unions overseas, if we here had tried to maintain Closed Shops, ‘No Ticket, No Start’ and all the other anachronisms of the Golden Age of Unionism we would have just been chewed up and spat out by voracious multinational marauders from overseas. Don’t forget it was also the Golden Age of the Takeover Merchant.
So Hawke and Keating bit the bullet and along with John Button and Bill Kelty and Australian businessmen like Peter Abeles, who could also see that if they didn’t work with the government they too would become casualties, they worked out what they could keep that would benefit both the Workers and the Employers and what they had to discard.
And the proof of the pudding was in the eating for Australia. How many years now without a Recession?
Thank you, Bob Hawke. You were truly a giant among men.
And the people who are trying to tarnish your legacy are mere pissants.
Now I’ve got a tear!
No lie is big enough. Applied Economic Geography. He would have spent much of his time in the GAS building of UNSW Kensington campus. Now, gas seems to fill him.
Thank you Mr Hawke.
Tributes have come in as well from Malcolm Turnbull, and even Barnaby Joyce, who like Morrison have tweeted respectfully about the passing of Bob Hawke.
As much as I dislike all 3 of them, they stand head and shoulders above low-life Abbott.
Morrison has a Bachelor of Science (B.Sc.) honours degree in applied economic geography at the University of New South Wales according to Wikipedia. I suppose that gets him somewhere near economics but certainly not an economist. He actually sounded as though he thought he should have used different words as he then talked about being Treasurer. But that is being generous as he told a straight out lie about something a few seconds earlier.
15,0000 + like/love on Labor’s Facebook Page for bob hawks passing news.
Fess
Me too – great image. I was only writing a few days ago how I wanted him to see one more Labor government.
GG, I think it is whiskey Sunday.
Nothing from Kevin Rudd yet?
In our hands is placed a power greater than their hoarded gold. Greater than the might of armies, multiplied a thousand-fold. We can bring to birth a new world from the ashes of the old
For the union makes us strong.
Solidarity forever. Vale Bob.
Rudd’s statement is on Twitter
For what little it’s worth, the Coalition have blown out from $4.75 to $5.75 over the course of today on Sportsbet – and are starting to threaten $8.00 again on Betfair.
If what you say is true ms cat Sweden Holland and Germany should all be impoverished hell holes run by oligarchs.
Without realising it you are singing from a neoliberal hymn sheet, but actually think you are left wing because you worry about the future of the speckled dove in the central Qld coal fields.
C@tmomma @ #237 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 7:58 pm
From his Twitter account:
RIP Hawke. One of the most important PMs in history. Even rusted on lib voters concede this point. Sad he won’t get to see another ALP victory. Quite a few people on ABC 24 are struggling to keep it together tonight. I don’t envy them.
If it’s any consolation to family and supporters, I think this will probably help Labor on election day. The media is going to be spending tomorrow talking all about Hawke’s legacy and ambitious reform agenda. Undecideds and younger voters might connect this with Shorten’s agenda and decide to give the ALP a go on Saturday.
That day when we won the cup!
Hawkie being interviewed by the sports guy from nine Perth.
Happy giddy days.
Simon² Katich® @ #236 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 9:58 pm
Go for it Simon.
An example of how Bob Hawke understood even at the height of controversy he came to the Salamanca Markets in Hobart and shook the hands of the Tasmanian LGBTI activists. Truly inclusive.
I never met Bob but I am old enough to remember his father preaching from the pulpit of the Congregational Church on Jetty Road Glenelg.
We had to walk past on our way home from Church and old Clem had a voice that would scare Satan himself. He was filling in there for awhile and we knew when he had left. Quiet Sundays again.
Funny how things like that stick in the mind
Tony’s mother (!) Bronwyn Bishop was unnecessarily snarky about Bob on Sky tonight.