The final Ipsos poll for the ex-Fairfax papers records an improvement in the Coalition primary vote and a tightening on two-party preferred, with Labor now leading at 51-49, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The Coalition primary vote is at 39%, up three, although this comes at the expense of minor parties rather than Labor, who are steady on 33%. Ipsos continues to look low for Labor and high for the Greens, although the latter are down one to 13%. One Nation is down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party is credited at 3%, in the first result the pollster has produced for the party. The poll includes a breakout for those who have already voted, on which the Coalition interestingly records a lead of 53-47.
The Ipsos preference flow splits both One Nation and United Australia Party preferences 53-47, and while Fairfax’s reportage says this is based on the last election, the One Nation flow in 2016 was actually pretty much 50-50, while the United Australia Party result seems to be speculative. It is similar to the Palmer United Party flow of 53.67-46.33 in 2013, but not quite the same.
On personal ratings, Scott Morrison records a slightly improved result, being up one on approval to 48% and down one on disapproval to 43%, while Bill Shorten’s position improves more substantially, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 48%. However, Morrison slightly extends his lead as preferred prime minister, from 45-40 to 47-40. The poll was conducted Sunday to Wednesday from a larger than usual sample of 1842.
Also out today was the following barrage of seat polls from YouGov Galaxy in the News Corp papers, conducted on Monday and Tuesday:
Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.
Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.
Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.
La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.
Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.
Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.
Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.
Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.
Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.
Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.
BH it is so lovely to read your posts.
Lucky Creed
Sweden Holland and Germany.. there is a common link here, non of them are related to England.
Australia suffered under the yoke of an inherited English industrial education system
Hawk & Keating gave Australia a chance to break that yoke, it required a social contract a very German idea nothing to do with neoliberalism
Felt so sad for Barrie Cassidy tonight when he said he didn’t get a chance to go and see Bob because of the campaign. Bazza nearly lost it completely, and I actually did.
C@tmomma..I was going to say the same- People criticising Hawke/ Keating’s neo liberalism ignore the total destruction of society that characterized the Reagan/ Thatcher/ Key era of tax cuts, welfare cuts, deindustrialisation, privatization of basic services like health and water etc…
Hawke was a master in balancing the new global economy without the total dislocation, and ultimately economic failure, of the US/ UK and NZ.
BH it is so lovely to read your posts.
One of the more authentic contributors here.
Good initials too!
My heart broke for Barrie … you could see how badly it was affecting him.
Dave, I am into the second while watching some of the excellent video links and reading some well written condolences posted.
I’ve been watching the ABC coverage of Bob Hawke’s legacy for the past hour or so. I’m hoping they mention APEC eventually. The way Australia turned towards Asia should be part of Hawke’s legacy.
Tomorrow’s SMH:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6r8z2eWsAAhvBW?format=jpg&name=900×900
Wow what kind of statement is that meant to be from Abbott? No condolences to anyone, just a political point scoring exercise. What a creep.
Hawke was the first polly I ever became aware of. And I have a clear memory of sitting on the step with my grandmother as a child, asking who she voted for. “Labor. Hawke is as good man” was her definite reply.
The one and only time I was introduced to Bob Hawke was (appropriately) in the front bar of the John Curtin Hotel in Lygon Street. Would have been in 1982. I was a young 20 year old union delegate from Adelaide, attending a meeting at Trades Hall, and we adjoined to the pub after the meeting finished.
Thanks for that, DanG. 🙂
Dan Gulberry
Thanks for that. But I will have to take a break!
Also to note the bottom corner where the SMH endorses Labor.
Hawke is the first politician I was aware of too. I was 4 going on 5 in 1983 so grew up with him as PM. He’s been ever present for my whole life really. A sad day, but also a day to remember the great things he and his Government did for all of us. That Medicare card that we all carry is quite a legacy to leave.
ALP Headquarters: “If only we could saturate the last days of campaigning with nostalgia about the Labor Party”
Bob Hawke: “Let me see what I can do”
(From Amelia Taylor)
Also.. inspired by that wonderful “How good is this?” advertisement on The Weekly, I’ve made a modification to a Liberal Party advertisement.
I think it’s a succinct description of their rent-seeking policies.
Henry @ #251 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 8:07 pm
I echo this.
Regarding Lincoln and other Tories. They just cannot conceal their fundamental mean spiritedness. I guess it’s in their DNA. Fuckwit indeed!
Thanks for the great Hawke memories and stories.
Both my older sons went up to Oxford (by train, for the day), partly to see the memorial to Hawke sculling that yard glass.
Dan Gulberry @ #260 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 8:13 pm
So appropriate. Abbott is likely pissed that his final day campaign is going to be drowned out by Hawke’s passing, and the focus on Labor policy legacy.
My enduring memory of Bob Hawke was after the Americas Cup win in 1983. Bob was on some morning TV show wearing a garish ‘Australia’ jacket, looking and sounding a bit juiced, but mostly just overflowing with enthusiasm for Australia’s victory. (I’m sure he wanted to call them bastards, not bums!)
At the time I can remember thinking about the great future Australia had. We could mix with the best and win. We would throw off the shakles of the mother country. We were proud Australians making our way in the world and our future was exciting, full of opportunity and promise and great expectations. Bob was the man for and of the time.
Reflecting now on where we are heading as a nation – how small, inward looking, fearful and partisan we have become.
I doubt the (perhaps) naive hope of the past can be rekindled, or given to later generations that have never experienced it – but perchance it can.
RIP Bob – a very hard act to follow.
Bob Hawke abhorred racism and bigotry.
He was a key figure in the fall of apartheid.
He was a champion of women’s rights and equality.
He was a unifier, a visionary and a reformer.
Thank you C@tmomma for you terrific explanation earlier for those in the lunar left.
Much of the old Australia was protected by high tariff barriers. For better or worse, those are no longer an option. Hawke and Keating tried to manage the transition to the greatest benefit to the greatest number and mostly succeeded. And while all this was going on he managed to cement in place a national health scheme that the Coalition haven’t been able to dismantle.
Morrison – had a go – now he’s got to go.
Can’t read the SMH bottom LH corner – could be historic words and would appreciate a clear copy?
Barrie Cassidy’s tribute
https://twitter.com/i/status/1128993843850801153
Sceptic They did nothing of what you say. they introduced an accord that capped wages below the level of inflation (ie reduced real wages) and supposedly compensated workers with a “social wage” a “social wage” future Tory governments were always going to salami slice into nothing.
I do think Hawke was aiming at a German industrial model, but Keating was young and impressionable and the econocrats in treasury had him under their spell and things spun off in a direction that Hawke probably had reservations about but he had unleashed forces he couldn’t control
I am not going to carry on too much about the less tasteful posts this evening. Only because I probably am going to be less than gracious when someone like Howard or Abbott (definitely the latter!) dies and I don’t want to be a hypocrite.
Looking forward to the cartoonists tomorrow – should be some good ones.
But will Zanetti manage an anti-union anti-Labor angle in all this?
Lev @10:18
“I think it’s a succinct description of their rent-seeking policies.”
Reverse Robin Hood.
I might have to see if I can dig up some of the correspondence my father had about an artists’ live-in gallery that was occupying a disused Leichhardt Foundry. I believe there were a couple to/from Hawke
1983 was my first year at university. It was also the first time I could vote.
My family had suffered loss as a result of Howard as Treasurer and this was my first chance to get even.
Hawke saw out my days at university, including as a postgrad and Masters student. Those were happier days full of hope and change.
Its interesting that during the time of Howard my mood turned to depression and my income was cut in real terms. Then things got better under Rudd and Gillard, only to see the real darkness come back with Abbott.
Shorten won’t be a clone of Hawke. But I see the end of the night coming…
Rocket Rocket @ #277 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 8:25 pm
Quite melancholy, esp the second video in that feed.
Also a big thanks William to let us know that IPSOS has made no difference to Bludgertrack.
Abbott will never get a send off like Hawke – but he might just get one like Thatcher.
The Guardian article about Abbott’s response is titled “Pea For a Heart.”
Jaeger @ #286 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 8:32 pm
Or electorally, like Howard!
Among his government’s many achievements quick action on hiv, possibly saving thousands of lives. Vale Hawkie.
Hey Lucky Creed. Why don’t you just trot off you fuck.
Credit Wendy Harmer for “pea for a heart” in a tweet responding to Abbott.
That big?
Dan Gulberry @ #260 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 9:43 pm
Great photo.
––––––––––––––––
Also forgot to mention earlier that 1983 was the first election I was eligible to vote, and I got to vote for Hawke Labor. 🙂
Rest in Peace Mr Hawke
First election I voted in was his election. I had no idea what i was doing but I am so glad now that i voted for this loveable, super intelligent larrikin. So very Australian, so much missed.
Cheers Bob . I will have one for both of us.
Vale Bob Hawke
Me too JM 🙂
Barrie Cassidy saying the biggest impression Bob Hawke had on him was the instinctive way he fought against racism. I remember that as a kid growing up and will never forget it.
Fess
I didn’t see it live. Barrie is incredibly upset.
My favourite picture of Barrie, and of Bob, is that one in Red Square in Moscow.
Can’t make that one work – but here is one of the whole group, with Barrie third from the left.
Tony Abbott is 61 and apparently as fit as the proverbial Mallee bull. He’ll be with us for a while yet. When it’s his time to shuffle off the mortal coil, he’ll be a footnote in Australia’s history, like Billy McMahon (who?). Few will remember him and fewer with any particular affection.
Hawke worked with the Greens when they stood for the environment
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The Franklin River flows free, the Daintree stands, Antartica is not a mine, and Landcare is a national icon, in large part because of Bob Hawke and his governments. Australia is better for it. #AUSVote2019