Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

Ipsos maintains the narrowing trend to the last, as a barrage of seat polls show uniformly tight contests.

The final Ipsos poll for the ex-Fairfax papers records an improvement in the Coalition primary vote and a tightening on two-party preferred, with Labor now leading at 51-49, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The Coalition primary vote is at 39%, up three, although this comes at the expense of minor parties rather than Labor, who are steady on 33%. Ipsos continues to look low for Labor and high for the Greens, although the latter are down one to 13%. One Nation is down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party is credited at 3%, in the first result the pollster has produced for the party. The poll includes a breakout for those who have already voted, on which the Coalition interestingly records a lead of 53-47.

The Ipsos preference flow splits both One Nation and United Australia Party preferences 53-47, and while Fairfax’s reportage says this is based on the last election, the One Nation flow in 2016 was actually pretty much 50-50, while the United Australia Party result seems to be speculative. It is similar to the Palmer United Party flow of 53.67-46.33 in 2013, but not quite the same.

On personal ratings, Scott Morrison records a slightly improved result, being up one on approval to 48% and down one on disapproval to 43%, while Bill Shorten’s position improves more substantially, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 48%. However, Morrison slightly extends his lead as preferred prime minister, from 45-40 to 47-40. The poll was conducted Sunday to Wednesday from a larger than usual sample of 1842.

Also out today was the following barrage of seat polls from YouGov Galaxy in the News Corp papers, conducted on Monday and Tuesday:

Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.

Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.

Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.

La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.

Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.

Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.

Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.

Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.

Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.

Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

490 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 7 of 10
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  1. Good tributes from Malcolm and Barnaby posted earlier.

    The first time I remember seeing the great man speaking was at a rally outside old parliament house a day before the 1975 election. He and Gough would have known that defeat was inevitable but it was a rousing performance. My vocabulary (and that of others) increased that day when Hawke called Kerr a ‘sycophantic surrogate’ and we had to look up our dictionaries later.

    Also, I just clicked on a Liberal ad in the margin. Hopefully a small sum for William. Why not, I clicked on it again.

  2. From Tony Blair:

    Bob Hawke was a huge figure. Someone I deeply admired, liked and learned from, a genuine giant in anyone’s politics.

    He was an immensely successful leader of Australia but he also impacted all of us round the world who were looking for a sustainable model of government which combined strong economies with high levels of social justice and investment in the most disadvantaged sections of society.

    Sharp, with a marvellous strategic political mind, and concealing a first class intellect behind that friendly and ‘good bloke’ exterior, he was wonderful and warm company, and from the first time I met him back in 1982 always willing to reach out and help younger politicians. A true model for so many of us. He will be greatly missed.

  3. Among his government’s many achievements quick action on HIV, possibly saving thousands of lives. Vale Hawkie.”

    A great, and often overlooked, achievement.

  5. Thankyou Bludgers. I got lost for a couple of years but this site, even with its ups and downs, is fascinating and it helped me to lurk at night through the time one needs to recover from loss.
    I’ve been missing my Friday night phone calls from youngest son. We talked politics – he a rabid Utopian/Greenie, Labor second, so it was fun. In his last week he told us to find the biggest, whitest cloud in the sky and he would be sitting up there watching us. So now I reckon Bob’s up there next to him and they can debate til kingdom comes … or me

  6. Sceptic @ 10:39:

    “Hawke worked with the Greens when they stood for the environment”

    Really, Sceptic? All this talk about Tories scoring cheap political points, and you do the same.

    It’s beneath you, surely?

    Bob Hawke was a f*cking legend. Just leave it at that.

  7. At least Abbott is honest; albeit an honest arsehole .. unlike the charlatan ScumMo who lies in at least every second sentence and channels fake emotions to suit his agenda.

  9. People attacking the “lunar left” using Hawke’s death are just as bad as Abbott. Hawke would be ashamed of you.

  11. Citizen @ 10:39
    “My vocabulary (and that of others) increased that day when Hawke called Kerr a ‘sycophantic surrogate’ and we had to look up our dictionaries later.”

    Unsurpassed until his successor Paul Keating called John Howard an “Antedivuvian obscurantist” a few decades later.

  12. You’re all class Nostradamus. Love your work mate.

    Your prognostications are on a par with your namesake; all grandstanding and no substance.

    Go back under your rock.

  15. Let us be gentle and respectful to each other, at least for these raw hours.

    We all cope differently with grief.

    Anger only leads to regret.

  18. I was standing by the river in Brunswick Heads in 1983 when Hawke became leader and Fraser called the election.

    On what a sweet day that was.

  19. Kevin Bonham
    @kevinbonham
    #Galaxy Hasluck 50-50 Stirling 51-49 (Lib) Swan “neck and neck” Pearce Lib “slightly ahead” Cowan 53-47 (ALP)

  22. You should read my posts you might learn something, I’ve learnt something about you, you are a fascist loud mouth.

    The Ipswich I grew up in back in those horrible poor trash of Asia seventies was one in which everybody had a full time job.

    You could take your pick. the meatworks. the woolen mills at Redbank, the railway workshops where my dad worked as a pattern maker,the council.Also everybody was in a union.

    Go there now, probably twenty percent of the population drift between welfare and shit low paid casual wage slavery. Hawke and Keating started the transition to the brave new world we have today.

    Of course there have been winners to, but amazingly even on a site where most would claim to be social democrats the dark side of the Hawke Keating project never seems to get a mention.It’s all the fault of the tories, they didn’t start it Labor did.

  24. How cool is that Red Square pic on the previous page? Love seeing a young Bazza and Emmo next to him as well. Rare gold.!

  25. Cud Chewer @ #296 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 10:08 pm

    Me too JM 🙂

    Hawkie’s Mob. 🙂

    Another great pic of Hawke, taken in 2017.

    Sceptic @ #300 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 10:09 pm

    Hawke worked with the Greens when they stood for the environment

    @aruptom
    Follow Follow @aruptom
    More
    The Franklin River flows free, the Daintree stands, Antartica is not a mine, and Landcare is a national icon, in large part because of Bob Hawke and his governments. Australia is better for it. #AUSVote2019

    The bush block I live on has been part of Landcare since the start. 🙂

  28. It’s Time

    It’s time for freedom,
    It’s time for moving, It’s time to begin,
    Yes It’s time

    It’s time Australia,
    It’s time for moving, It’s time for proving,
    Yes It’s time

    It’s time for all folk,
    It’s time for moving, It’s time to give,
    Yes It’s time

    It’s time for children,
    It’s time to show them, Time to look ahead,
    Yes It’s time

    Time for freedom,
    Time for moving, Time to be clear,
    Yes It’s time

    Time Australia,
    Time for moving, It’s time for proving,
    Yes It’s time

    Time for better,
    Come together, It’s time to move,
    Yes It’s time

    Time to stand up,
    Time to shout it, Time, Time, Time,
    Yes It’s time

    Time to move on,
    Time to stand up, time to say ‘yes’,
    Yes It’s time

  32. Abbott: “Hawke was the first polly I ever became aware of. And I have a clear memory of sitting on the step with my grandmother as a child, asking who she voted for. “Labor. Hawke is as good man” was her definite reply.”

    1983 abbott was 26 y.o.

    I knew he was a man child, but this is ridiculous. he can’t face the fact that he is a 62 y.o. soon to be retired and failed PM.

    & I am sure was an active NCC/DLP campaigner against Labor, but he was at Oxford at the time.

  33. Hope they print more copies of the West Australian tomorrow. A tribute to Hawke and an article on big swings to Labor in WA in Galaxy polling.

  35. Andrew Stafford’s contribution:

    Bob Hawke was a lot of things. Statesman. Drunk. Healer. Philanderer. Rhodes scholar. Ocker. Political genius. Trade unionist. Financial deregulator. Government interventionist. Reformist. Conservationist. A big-picture guy who wore an enormous bleeding heart on his sleeve. On national television and in parliament, he cried and cracked jokes and roared with laughter and, on at least one occasion, all but told Richard Carleton to fuck off. He was an authentic giant.

    Read more:
    https://www.patreon.com/posts/hawke-26873367

  37. Saw a couple of minutes of Paul Murray .. he basically said that Hawke dying was sad but it’s important not to let emotion get in the way of the need to vote for ScumMo and save Australia. He really is a lowlife.

  38. jenauthor @ #318 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 10:50 pm

    Kevin Bonham
    @kevinbonham
    #Galaxy Hasluck 50-50 Stirling 51-49 (Lib) Swan “neck and neck” Pearce Lib “slightly ahead” Cowan 53-47 (ALP)

    Does anybody else think it’s weird that with the exception of Gilmore, no seat poll with a Liberal incumbent has them falling below a 50-50 contest? They seem to have exactly the right amount of tenacity, in precisely the right places.

  45. Bob Hawke

    I read recently that childhood poverty decreased by 30% during Mr Hawke’s tenure and that that is by far the most significant improvement in Australia’s history. Mr Hawke knew the necessity of setting ambitious goals and trying things, and if they didn’t work at first, try something else; repeat until success. The low risk path—”under-promise and over-deliver”—was not the path he trod. Instead, he led a government thoroughly infused with a “bold experimentalism” perhaps learned from FDR, married to Mr Hawke’s unique talent for bringing people together under the banner of consensus. A leader not only of the Labor Government, but for the whole country.

  49. Yep just looking at those newspaper front pages, I reckon the real reason Tone threw a hissy fit at Hawke is because tomorrow the passing of a Labor legend is going to dominate news cycle.

  50. Bob assumed prime minister at a time the Nation was facing severe economic hardship

    We endured double digit unemployment, double digit inflation and, I well recall, Commercial Bills discounting at 25%

    We had banks going bust!

    The government of the day, in response, had put a freeze on wages and salary increases viewing that fault was with workers

    And so Bob came to government, knocking off those “Bloody Tories” – which they always were to him

    “Bloody Tories”

    No doubt Bill faces the same scale of challenges the boy from Bordertown faced upon coming to government

    And Ad Man from Mad Men is not the “bloke” – he is a “Bloody Tory”

    There is no relationship between the “bloke” Bob was and the “bloke” Ad Man from Mad Men sees himself as and presents himself as

    I first met Bob at the bar of the Union Bar at The University of Adelaide – where mine host promoted his “Green beer”

    In his Union day’s

    And his drinking days!!!

    The day’s when he strode over the Arbitration Commission – the Pilot strikes and many other matters which came before that jurisdiction – of his!!!

    Now it is Bill’s turn, to use his commitment and his Union background striding both the factory floor and the Board Rooms to progress the well being of the Citizens of our Nation

    As Bob did – so very, very, very well with enduring results we still benefit from today

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