Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

Ipsos maintains the narrowing trend to the last, as a barrage of seat polls show uniformly tight contests.

The final Ipsos poll for the ex-Fairfax papers records an improvement in the Coalition primary vote and a tightening on two-party preferred, with Labor now leading at 51-49, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The Coalition primary vote is at 39%, up three, although this comes at the expense of minor parties rather than Labor, who are steady on 33%. Ipsos continues to look low for Labor and high for the Greens, although the latter are down one to 13%. One Nation is down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party is credited at 3%, in the first result the pollster has produced for the party. The poll includes a breakout for those who have already voted, on which the Coalition interestingly records a lead of 53-47.

The Ipsos preference flow splits both One Nation and United Australia Party preferences 53-47, and while Fairfax’s reportage says this is based on the last election, the One Nation flow in 2016 was actually pretty much 50-50, while the United Australia Party result seems to be speculative. It is similar to the Palmer United Party flow of 53.67-46.33 in 2013, but not quite the same.

On personal ratings, Scott Morrison records a slightly improved result, being up one on approval to 48% and down one on disapproval to 43%, while Bill Shorten’s position improves more substantially, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 48%. However, Morrison slightly extends his lead as preferred prime minister, from 45-40 to 47-40. The poll was conducted Sunday to Wednesday from a larger than usual sample of 1842.

Also out today was the following barrage of seat polls from YouGov Galaxy in the News Corp papers, conducted on Monday and Tuesday:

Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.

Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.

Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.

La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.

Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.

Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.

Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.

Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.

Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.

Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

490 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Douglas and Milko says:
    Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 10:22 pm

    Thanks for the great Hawke memories and stories.

    Both my older sons went up to Oxford (by train, for the day), partly to see the memorial to Hawke sculling that yard glass.

    The Turf Tavern is a great pub, old and pokie inside, with a larger cobblestone beer garden outside. Not easy to find as it’s tucked away down an alley.

    I spent a year living in southern Oxfordshire and the Turf was always a part of an Oxford night, or day, it didn’t matter.

    Good memories! 🙂

  4. I’m assuming this is accurate. Older PBers can feel free to fact check as appropriate.

    Malcolm Farnsworth@mfarnsworth
    6m6 minutes ago
    I do wish these journalists would stop saying Hawke established Medicare. Whitlam established universal health insurance and called it Medibank. Fraser tore it down. Hawke restored Whitlam’s creation and renamed it Medicare.

  5. “One of the secrets of Bob Hawke’s success as PM was that there wasn’t a single sector of society that could look at him and truthfully say that he just didn’t give a stuff about them.”

    Very true. It’s been a weakness of Labor ever since that they haven’t been able to recapture that.

    “Keating, Howard and Abbott certainly didn’t have that quality.”

    In different ways, yes.

    “Rudd, Gillard and Turnbull did, but not to the same extent as Hawke.”

    Turnbull, really? I would have said he had it the least of anyone. He even left a lot of Liberal voters cold. There wouldn’t have been a working class voter in Australia who felt Turnbull gave a stuff about them.

  12. Patrick Bateman @ #309 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 10:44 pm

    People attacking the “lunar left” using Hawke’s death are just as bad as Abbott. Hawke would be ashamed of you.

    Crap. However, I expect nothing better than a mealy-mouthed comment from you in defense of those who never think Labor goes far enough Left for their tastes.

  14. Lucky Creed @ #322 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 10:51 pm

    You should read my posts you might learn something, I’ve learnt something about you, you are a fascist loud mouth.

    The Ipswich I grew up in back in those horrible poor trash of Asia seventies was one in which everybody had a full time job.

    You could take your pick. the meatworks. the woolen mills at Redbank, the railway workshops where my dad worked as a pattern maker,the council.Also everybody was in a union.

    Go there now, probably twenty percent of the population drift between welfare and shit low paid casual wage slavery. Hawke and Keating started the transition to the brave new world we have today.

    Of course there have been winners to, but amazingly even on a site where most would claim to be social democrats the dark side of the Hawke Keating project never seems to get a mention.It’s all the fault of the tories, they didn’t start it Labor did.

    Which party has been in power for 16 of the past 23 years?

  15. “Will the Liberal Party match this with the death of Howard tomorrow?”…

    Liberals are selfish individualists, they don’t make any sacrifice for the good of the collective!!

  17. As for the tin-eared contributions tonight of Tony Abbott and Bronwyn Bishop: “by their fruits you shall know them”. Such spite speaks unambiguously of their stunted character.

  18. Confessions @ #355 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 11:08 pm

    I’m assuming this is accurate. Older PBers can feel free to fact check as appropriate.

    Malcolm Farnsworth@mfarnsworth
    6m6 minutes ago
    I do wish these journalists would stop saying Hawke established Medicare. Whitlam established universal health insurance and called it Medibank. Fraser tore it down. Hawke restored Whitlam’s creation and renamed it Medicare.

    He’s correct.

  20. “Bob Hawke has just won his last Federal election for the ALP….
    …..Posthumously….”

    I was actually thinking, that if he passed yesterday, Labor could have run his 2016 medicare anti privatisation ad for one last dash to midnight.

    #mediscare2.0. Could you imagine the Liberals and Newscorpse fulminating if that got a good run.

    He’s an idea. Maybe all us laborities on Bludger should repost those ads from utube to social media a hundred times each in the next 36 hours. Plus send out a mass sms message from bob to ‘save medicare’ on Election Day. …

  23. ajm @ #365 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 11:11 pm

    Lucky Creed @ #322 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 10:51 pm

    You should read my posts you might learn something, I’ve learnt something about you, you are a fascist loud mouth.

    The Ipswich I grew up in back in those horrible poor trash of Asia seventies was one in which everybody had a full time job.

    You could take your pick. the meatworks. the woolen mills at Redbank, the railway workshops where my dad worked as a pattern maker,the council.Also everybody was in a union.

    Go there now, probably twenty percent of the population drift between welfare and shit low paid casual wage slavery. Hawke and Keating started the transition to the brave new world we have today.

    Of course there have been winners to, but amazingly even on a site where most would claim to be social democrats the dark side of the Hawke Keating project never seems to get a mention.It’s all the fault of the tories, they didn’t start it Labor did.

    Which party has been in power for 16 of the past 23 years?

    Which party introduced Workchoices?

    Who introduced the ABN, which allowed unscrupulous employers to demand their employees become sub-contractors, so that they didn’t have to pay their entitlements and could dictate terms of employment via contracts which had to be signed by the employee?

    Anyway, what sort of comment do you expect from someone from Hansonland? They pine for the fjords up there and expect an Australia preserved in aspic to go on forevermore.

  24. The Age would have been moronic to editorialize any other way (the SMH would be merely foolish, but The Age is in Victoria). Nine’s purchase of Fairfax may have some surprising benefits to offer (the return of subeditors is a good sign; the possible end of Greg Hywood’s ridiculous policy of chasing the News mastheads to the right in search of the same audience would be another. I’d need a longer good run from The Age to be persuaded it was worth a subscription again but hey, good start.

  25. Malcolm Farnsworth is correct in that universal healthcare was one of Whitlam’s (many) big reforms. However, Fraser got rid of it during his last term, saying that “Australia has come to a watershed moment, and the Government is now getting out of people’s lives.”

    Hawke came in with a mandate to revive universal healthcare, and so we got Medicare. this time it lasted.

    Many working class people ended up with heavy debts when they ended up in hospital during the years between the end of Medibank and the start of Medicare.

    However, Malcolm Farnsworth is assuming it was easy for Hawke to reinstate universal healthcare -it was not, and Hawke deserves quite a bit of credit.

  26. Oh Bob I just read you’ve gone

    But no you’re not, you’ll never be gone. You’ve left so much of yourself.

    I had the privilege of looking after you when you were our PM. It was a bit stressful. Did it show? But you were you, sincere and gracious, trusting and generous, and one of the most genuine people I have had the pleasure of meeting. And I’ve met a few.

    Paul Keating called it – imagination and courage. He left out giant.

    Saturday will be a sweet victory in your memory. Australia needs it, like it needed you. See to it big man.

    See you later.

  28. “Will the Liberal Party match this with the death of Howard tomorrow?”

    Howard passed away some years ago- what you see today is a tribute to taxidermy, animatronics and gramaphone recordings of theodore the chimpmunk played slowly on a hand spun turntable. Only the dead glassy beady eyes give it away.

  29. Observer
    I also remember Howard as Treasurer then and Westpac’s Partnership Pacific was in strife, house prices dropped and our Treasurer seemed useless. Larger than life Bob revived us with that gnarly voice and great laugh.

  31. Confessions @ #354 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 11:08 pm

    I’m assuming this is accurate. Older PBers can feel free to fact check as appropriate.

    Malcolm Farnsworth@mfarnsworth
    6m6 minutes ago
    I do wish these journalists would stop saying Hawke established Medicare. Whitlam established universal health insurance and called it Medibank. Fraser tore it down. Hawke restored Whitlam’s creation and renamed it Medicare.

    Farnsworth is right.

  32. “Which party has been in power for 16 of the past 23 years?”

    Which party has been in power for 19 of the past 36 years?

  33. “I am not going to carry on too much about the less tasteful posts this evening. Only because I probably am going to be less than gracious when someone like Howard or Abbott (definitely the latter!) dies and I don’t want to be a hypocrite.”

    With you there RL. I don’t know that I’d waste the breath being ungracious about either Howard or Abbott, but I have an old promise to keep which is to play the Ding Dong The Witch Is Dead song when Rupert Murdoch leaves his mortal coil.

  36. Does anybody else think it’s weird that with the exception of Gilmore, no seat poll with a Liberal incumbent has them falling below a 50-50 contest? They seem to have exactly the right amount of tenacity, in precisely the right places

    ar this prompts me to repeat an earlier question.

    Can anyone come up with a list of seats-in-play that aren’t featured in these seat polls?

  38. There’s a whole bunch of WA seat polls out from GhostWhoVotes

    Cowan: 53-47 ALP
    Pearce & Stirling: 51-49 LNP
    Hasluck: 50-50

    All 3 of the lib marginals look to be in play, plus Swan which labor says they are most confident about. Think labor will pick up 2, maybe even 3 Lib seats in WA, unless WA disappoints again.

  40. AJM – Politically it would have been very difficult, maybe not impossible but very difficult for the tories to have gone where they eventually did, if Labor had not paved the way.

    Hawke and Keating pushed the centre of Australian politics, at least as far as economics is concerned well to the right.

    Culturally they pushed it to the left and as much of the modern left is more concerned with the cultural than the economic, (where as this thread shows they have largely surrendered to neoliberalism as if there is and never really was any alternative) then I can understand their popularity, but their economic legacy needs to exposed for what it was not sugar coated.

  42. I thought I would offer my condolence to all those here that support the ALP & trade union movement or were friends, family or fans of Bob Hawke.

    He differently goes down as one of this country’s finest PM’s and leaders of the trade union movement.

    His Prime Ministership is marked with corresponding with the 1980s that in many ways was one of the most politically, economically and socially transformative periods of recent history and the Hawke Government was better able than many others in successfully handling that period.

    Vale the Hon Bob Hawke

  43. I just caught up with the news of Bob Hawke’s death. Vale Bob, you made Australia a better place. Too bad you could not last till Saturday.

    I was too young to vote for Whitlam and Hawke was the first Labor PM I voted for. I heard him speak in a workers club decades ago. He was not as witty as Keating, but the intellect, fire and passion were all there. I naively assumed the calibre of Hawke and Keating was typical of national leaders. ROTFL! How wrong I was! How I miss them both.

    This is a significant event, and it will dominate news, as it should. Lest ScumMo complain, it will also crowd news of how the Liberals allowed murderers into the country as part of a refugee deal to be crowded off the front pages too.

    Shorten should acknowledge the great legacy of Hawke and Keating, the last PMs who truly fought for a fair deal for average Australians, not a tax cut to appease the wealthy, and promise to hold those values. They are still worth fighting for, otherwise we might as well declare the land of the fair go lost.

  44. Crikey.com.au ✔ @crikey_news

    To help everyone prep for the upcoming election, we’re (temporarily) bringing down the paywall. That’s right, every single Crikey piece ever published will be totally free until election day. Tell your friends! https://buff.ly/2ouIIhM

  46. You have nfi, Lucky Creed. Your assertions are spurious and I find it profoundly offensive that you would come here tonight, of all nights and try and argue the pusillanimous point that you are trying to make.

  47. Bernard Keane
    @BernardKeane

    Dear Liberals – stop saying the Coalition supported Hawke’s reforms.
    You didn’t support Medicare – Howard promised to gut it.
    You didn’t support compulsory super — you spent decades undermining it.
    Ditto tax reform, family payments, industrial relations protections.

  48. Very sad to hear of the passing of Bob Hawke. He was one of Australia’s greatest Prime Ministers, ushering in great changes that mostly made the country a better place. But he was also the PM I came of age under. The first election campaign I took any part in was in 1983, his first great victory, when I was 16, and I first voted at his first re-election in 1984. He and his government provided the backdrop to my journey into adulthood, and I always felt that the nation was in good hands – and 30 years later it feels that way more than ever. Vale.

    Hopefully the nation will give him the best possible tribute by electing a Labor government on Saturday.

  49. So, why does IPSOS skew Green? If you say you’re going to vote ALP, do they go “are you sure you don’t mean Greens?”

  50. I turned on Sky towards the end of Murray’s show when (Troy Bramston?) was speaking. Basically told Murray that tomorrow would all be a reaction to Hawke’s passing and campaigning would be secondary.

    Then the sports commentators also had kind words to say, replaying a few old clips. Then the fellow who does ‘what the papers say’ at 11pm came on and gave a tribute.

    It must be the best ‘Sky after Dark’ for a long time.

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