Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 comments on “Election minus one day”

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  1. The passing of Bob might be a good omen … in Tarot, the death card signifies a change and rebirth in some interpretations.

  2. Hi Everyone,
    I had a touching moment today talking to an old unionist / communist in his 90s recalling meeting Bob Hawke, and wiping away a few tears as he told his story. His genuine concern for the common good and concern that the poor not be shut out of opportunity from birth was quite affecting. He clearly felt Hawkey shared this concern. I hope for all of us to see a return to soulful government, informed by a union background of standing up for the interests of forgotten people, and courageous in its approach to reform.
    I am idealistic / gullible enough to feel Shorten may be intending to and able to deliver on that.
    Good luck to the forces of reform and progress.
    To the others, if you don’t want government to be about improving life for people, what the H#@& do you want? – Get out of the way !

  3. Apologies to Glen Frey 😉

    The swing is on!
    The swing is on, on, on.
    It’s on the streets.
    The swing is… on!

    Put me down for 92 to the ALP, 2pp 53.5 ALP tomorrow.
    Greens to either double or treble their numbers in the reps.

    The only thing that Bill will not win tomorrow is the Maribynong Parkrun.

  4. @ Spence at 9:34pm

    I appreciate your frank feedback but my policy is that I won’t vote for dickheads. Chris Ketter, no 2. on the QLD ALP ticket, is a prize dickhead, proven by his track record. If the ALP realistically only have the chance of electing 2 senators and they put a dickhead at position 2, then that’s their fault not mine. I’m happy for my vote to exhaust rather than it go to Ketter. Now yes, there are even bigger dickheads than Ketter in other parties (e.g. Canavan and O’Sullivan in the LNP) but I’m not voting for them either. I don’t believe in voting for the lesser of two evils. I believe that voting is a moral action and I won’t be forced by the ALP to help elect a dickhead just because there are bigger dickheads being put up by other parties.

  5. Lowest primary vote in a newspoll prior to an election? So lower than in the Newspoll on the eve of the 2007 election?

  6. The Coalition still got 42% of the PV at the 2007 federal election. It was the only majority Labor victory in the last quarter century.

  7. Not so sensible Bastard. So you are happy to have LNP, Palmer, ON instead. What do you do for Reps when your Greens or Labor candidate is in the wrong faction – vote informal.?

  8. Unless it has a 4 in front of it, no Party can win. The Libs with a 40 per cent primary would have an outside chance.

  9. GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48.5 (-0.5) ALP 51.5 (+0.5) #auspol

  10. 51.5 to 48.5 to the good guys.

    Coalition primary vote drops to 38%. ALP 37%. Palmer 4. Hanson 3. Greens 9.

    MOE change. Bludgertrack on track.

  11. If applied on a uniform basis nationally, the Newspoll swing would be enough to deliver Labor a clear majority, with 81 seats in an expanded 151-seat parliament.

    Is nice! to read in the Australian.

  12. While waiting for the NewsPoll, good nigh all and good luck tomorrow.
    Rather than wearing Labor red I might wear my new white “It’s Time” T-shirt, for HTVs tomorrow at Bradfield.

    Just remember, the record pre-polling wasn’t people rushing to re-elect the government.

  13. GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 38 (-1) ALP 37 (0) GRN 9 (0) UAP 4 (0) ON 3 (-1) #auspol

  14. Apparently ON and UAP voters being ‘disciplined’ this time with preferences because of the official deals with the LNP will be enough to return the government. So says Kroger, Murray and Kenny.

    lols. Many many lols.

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