Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)
The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.
Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.
BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.
Original post
To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.
We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:
Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.
Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.
Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.
Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.
Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.
Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.
The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.
Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.
If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).
No “wow” yet from PvO. Must be getting an early night’s sleep and forgot to issue the usual troll.
The Newspoll embargo until 11pm is so the News papers have it first for the “front page” shows and have their exclusive, nothing else.
The next conspiracy theory or bed wetting because they can’t access a Sportsbet market for 5 seconds while the odds are updated should get the person responsible banned from the site for being a wibble wobble jelly on a plate.
Do Centre Alliance have any chance in Grey? This time they are focussing their resources only in 3 seats. Could it be a surprise?
I’m going Labor 51.5% and 83 seats. The cherries on the top would be Abbott and Dutton getting the arse. That would be champagne time for me.
There desperately trying to wake Rupert to confirm the Newspoll figures …..
Newspoll 52:48
ALP tomorrow – 87 seats
I’d guess Centre Alliance has focused all their resources on Mayo,not that Rebbeka Sharkie needs to worry too much.
You think perennial loser Georgina Downer might finally work out that she’s not getting back the seat that the Downer family consider is their birthright?
LR – I’ll have 85 seats for Labor. Go big or go home. As goes Victoria, so will go the country.
Vale Bob. May PM Shorten’s government be dedicated to honoring the legacy of great reforming governments of Hawke and Keating. Never let it be said that the ALP can’t deliver surpluses. That will change as of tomorrow night.
Goodbye Messrs Dutton and Abbott. Good riddance, you are small men with small ideas.
Spence @ #1307 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 9:18 pm
This was definitely the case in Dobell. The Lib HTV crew leader unpacked and brought out all of the Lib and Palmer and Molan A frames each morning, and repacked them up every evening. Molan hander outers were a sad sack lot, and I would suggest that they had almost no impact, but the Lib heavy, who came around to check on Jilly Pilon (the Lib candidate) every now and then, spoke to them too.
LR – Newspoll 52-48 to Labor!!!!
Tomorrow night it’s going to be more like 53-47.
I will sit with the ste I’ve had for a few weeks:
ALP 78
Coal: 67
Green/Indi: 6
Working the pre-poll line this arvo in Geelong and business was absolutely booming – queue out the door and fifty metres up the street. Dunno what that means but doing a fair bit of trade for Corangamite so cautiously optimistic.
Good luck and good hunting to the booth staff tomorrow.
Rumours afoot that we should keep an eye on Menzies tomorrow. Kevin Andrews in surprise danger.
Boilover alert!
ICANCU:
I’ll be handing out in Ryan tomorrow too, though for Labor.
Excellent article in In Daily on religion especially fundamentalists and political parties, just up
https://indaily.com.au/news/notes-on-adelaide/2019/05/17/pray-for-scomo-the-sa-connection-mixing-politics-and-religion/
No. Only seat they’ll win is Mayo because Sharkie is the incumbent but she might as well be an independent in the eyes of the Mayo voter. CA might be able to get enough votes from disaffected small L liberals and centrists to get a competitive Senate primary and then get elected to the Senate on a decent preference flow (they’re doing pretty well across the HTV cards) but still a long shot.
News poll not likely to make a difference at this juncture… nor the ugly signs from both sides (How can parties possibly know what effect these banal buntings have?). Ironic that the Greens have miles of plastic bunting… just like those climate charlatans in the ALP and LNP… seems like they also have grubby candidates like the big boys too.
I think it may a hung parliament, regardless of who gets their nose in front this time.
For all his bleating today, Shorten is far more Whitlam than Hawke in terms of policy and profligacy, but less popular than Keating. Still, he might have just scraped into the lodge.
… but I don’t think so. Either way there maybe a lot in this room that won’t remember much about tomorrow night
Darn says:
Friday, May 17, 2019 at 9:40 pm
mikehilliard says:
Friday, May 17, 2019 at 9:34 pm
The only polling I follow is right here.
Labor 79
LNP 66
Others 6
Mike
That is exactly the result I produced a few posts back using the seat odds method. Coincidence?
Hi Darn,
Those are William’s predictions. They’re the only ones I believe in. 🙂
JQ, i think she will be back next time round in the hope Sharkie will not recontest.
Centre Alliance have a candidate in Barker. Pretty sure she is new and the previous candidate, who was pretty strong on the ground, isnt having another go. The Grey NXT candidate from 2016 is having a second crack. She did some serious damage to Liberal vote in 2016 – and got close. Fingers crossed she gets over the line tomorrow. It would be a miracle, no big campaign for them this time, but….. never underestimate a Pirie girl.
To be fair, CA are running the same candidate in Grey as in 2016, so I correct myself a little and say it is possible but unlikely IMO, on the basis that Andrea Broadfoot might still retain the close community connection that she established last time with her extremely narrow loss but I still think it’s a bit of a long shot.
lol – Shorten is about repairing the structural deficits left by Howard, not abandoning Hawke’s reforms.
I picked Menzies a few days ago as a possible wildcard, given that Kevin Andrews has been there way too long and there might be an “it’s time factor” going on there. Anyway, if Menzies is in play, what does that say for seats in Melbourne lower down on the pendulum?
“I want to see more passion from you Andrew_Earlwood! You are so limp and Anglo-Saxon.”
My family (on my dad’s side) made its step slaughtering French Knights at Agincourt. For the 300 years we earned our keep thinning Scottish Reevers, although the head of our clan nearly blew it all by turning out for the losing side at Bosworth Field. Luckily it was only his head and the rest of the clan was rehabilitated and we continued to flourish: still useful with the Reevers you see. The dynasty was finally blown over cards, booze and the Hellfire club in the early 18th century and were removed from Burke’s peerage: just in time for the vacant title to be upped from a mere Marquis to Duke and given to George II’s second son, who picked up my family’s trade quite handily and acquitted himself well at Culloden and it’s aftermath (which kind of made the family trade redundant).
Thereafter my family receded back into being sheep farmers and coal miners. My great great grand-dad left Yorkshire and moved to nearby Lancashire (right on the border). His son went down pit aged 8. My grand dad went down pit aged 12 (see how enlightened things had progressed in a generation) only to come up aged 19 and march into the maw of Gallipoli for six months before he caught a piece of shrapnel. He later served in Palestine before migrating to South Australia in 1920.
The family ‘manor’ still stands in Wensleydale with its oddly aligned tower facing north (the Reevers you see). It sold recently for a few hundred thousand pounds (restoration required somewhat). It got me thinking: with Brexit, maybe I could retire and buy the place and go back into the family trade of thinning the Reevers of the SNP …
Me??
Newspoll tonight 52/48
ALP Seats:83
Teaser for Newspoll from Sharri Markson. Lowest ever primary for Coalition since newspoll records began in 1987…
Centre Alliance are a fair chance for the last SA Senate spot. And should be preferenced by all PBs at some stage because the alternative is almost certainly one of the UAP, ON or third Lib (ex Family First)
Judging by corflutes in Adelaide, CA are concentrating on the Senate.
Markson: lowest primary vote prior to an election for coalition since Newspoll began!!!
Game over.
“if Menzies is in play, what does that say for seats in Melbourne lower down on the pendulum?”
Much that is hilarious. 🙂
Heart says 89 for Hawkie.
Head says 82.
So put me down for 87 please LR.
Newspoll 52.5
Final 2pp 53.42
IO – source please? Was she on Sky?
The perimeter fence at Mosman High is completely covered by Steggall and Liberal stuff plus people doing night shifts
Where was the Markson comment?
Sharri will have people looking through the record books….
I’ll put myself down for 82 seats for Labor — the Silver Bodgie effect should get the red team across the line in a few tight marginals.
Final TPP 52.2
Deakin 3rd place 2001 @ #1376 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 10:00 pm
Jeebus, My 102 seats prediction is looking good 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀
Illawarra Observer @ 9:59 pm
“Teaser for Newspoll from Sharri Markson. Lowest ever primary for Coalition since newspoll records began in 1987…”
Just imagine how low it might have gone if not for the efforts of Maurice Newman and his Dad’s Army of campaigners, and of their standard bearer Captain GetUp.
Isn’t lowest LNP vote since 1987 the 39.5% in 1998. A vote close to that could still keep LNP somewhere near 50-50?
“Markson: lowest primary vote prior to an election for coalition since Newspoll began!!!”
If that is true then it calls into question what has been going on with the Newspolls leading up to this one. There’s been lots of speculation about the consistent but unlikely 49/51.
D
Not really – I think sub 40 would be up there as the worst for the coalition.
Just flicked over – Markson saying it’s the lowest coalition primary since 87, then immediately says “we can all agree scott Morrison has run a remarkable campaign…”
These people
Source : Sky after dark
Is that Markson comment confirmed? *jumps on table*
Come home to Mother Labor good people. Throw off the shackles of bondage. Let the scales fall from your eyes.
Lowest ever primary for the Libs? Mid to high 30s?
So what was the next lowest pre-election LNP primary Newspoll rssult?
LNP won with 39% of the primary in 1998.
Prolo @ #1393 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 10:07 pm
Gotta be WOW WOW !! ?
They said lowest prior to an election… which means 39% or lower.
I would be surprised if LNP has ever been sub 40 primary on final Newspoll
Could Palmer be taking a lot of Liberal pv? I have spoken to people who are actually voting for him.
Sky after dark hysteria level at 13. Can’t be a good newspoll for lnp
Looks like news poll suddenly got religion in last poll like many here predicted. If so they should be shot, but applauded for pulling a swifty on their copycat competitors