Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 comments on “Election minus one day”

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  1. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/election-2019-electioneve-newspoll-sees-labor-widen-lead/news-story/0a9d12394f20bb990606e3fa435e089d

    Bill Shorten is on track to return Labor to power six years after the collapse of the Rudd-Gillard ­government, with an election-eve Newspoll showing a 1.9 per cent swing against the Coalition ­despite voters declaring Scott Morrison to be their preferred prime minister.

    The exclusive Newspoll, conducted for The Weekend Australian, shows Labor heading to the polls with a two-party-preferred vote lead over the Coalition of 51.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent.

    Despite the half-point break ­towards Labor in the final week of the campaign, party strategists on both sides believe the swing is patchy and “hand-to-hand” battles in about 20 seats will decide the election.

    If applied on a uniform basis nationally, the Newspoll swing would be enough to deliver Labor a clear majority, with 81 seats in an expanded 151-seat parliament.

    The most comprehensive poll conducted during the campaign was based on a sample of 3008 voters nationally, with 2108 interviews conducted in the 24 hours up until midday yesterday.

  2. GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Morrison 47 (+2) Shorten 38 (0) #auspol

    #Newspoll Shorten: Approve 41 (+2) Disapprove 49 (0) #auspol

    #Newspoll Morrison: Approve 46 (+2) Disapprove

  3. I have a suspicion that the Newspoll is a little out. If the govt are actively shredding documents it suggest they know they are gone and it isn’t close………or do govts routinely do that sort of thing every election….?

  4. Actually Kenny is crabwalking away from that. Now it’s the ‘shy Tory’ effect. That’ll get them to 40 and then the promise land … many lols again.

  5. Just found this on twitter:

    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    6m6 minutes ago

    #Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48.5 (-0.5) ALP 51.5 (+0.5)

  6. BOOM!
    #Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48.5 (-0.5) ALP 51.5 (+0.5) #auspol

    It’s a Labor governmetn tomorrow Bludgers.

  7. sonar @ #1456 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 10:22 pm

    I have a suspicion that the Newspoll is a little out. If the govt are actively shredding documents it suggest they know they are gone and it isn’t close………or do govts routinely do that sort of thing every election….?

    sonar @ #1456 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 10:22 pm

    I have a suspicion that the Newspoll is a little out. If the govt are actively shredding documents it suggest they know they are gone and it isn’t close………or do govts routinely do that sort of thing every election….?

    Yep. It reeks of it.

  8. Looking at those newspoll numbers, I think the result might come in closer to 52-48

    My prediction is
    ALP 84
    LNP 57
    Greens & others 10


  10. My Prediction Newspoll 50/50

    Herbert ALP to LNP
    Lindsay ALP to LP
    Braddon ALP to LP
    Wentworth IND to LP
    Indi IND to LP or Nat

    Possibilities Solomon and Lingiari

    Gilmore LP to Lab
    Chisholm LP to Lab
    Cowper NP to Ind

    Possibilities Abbott loses to Ind
    All other seats close but lose by Labor by a handful of Votes

    Coalition 75 Labor 71 Other 5

    Coalition Government with Support of Katter

    Will not know at the end of the night

    In my seat of Adelaide a swing to Lib by 2-3%

    So I was out on my Newspoll Prediction Blast

  11. “party strategists on both sides believe the swing is patchy and “hand-to-hand” battles in about 20 seats will decide the election”

    Hand to hand combat in about 30 seats actually (although probably only 20 were ever in play). Unfortunately only 6 of those 30 are labor seats, and of that only 2-3 are genuinely in play. Plus – only one side is getting any swing from 2016 and that swing is against the government and seems concentrated in the regions where the government has the most vulnerable marginal seats. Ouch.

  12. Preferred PM: Morrison 47 (+2) Shorten 38 (0) #auspol

    #Newspoll Shorten: Approve 41 (+2) Disapprove 49 (0) #auspo

    #Newspoll Morrison: Approve 46 (+2) Disapprove 45 (+1) #auspol

  13. And there we go. No Friday Night Special. The last poll of the series is as smoothed/herded/rolling averaged as all the rest of them. The Australian polling industry is going to live or die together. Absolutely nobody is going to be able to say “look at me, I was more accurate than the others!” off this lot unless wonder of wonders they actually hit on run of accurate seatpolls.

    Of course, if the final result has a 2PP of 53 or 54 to the ALP, they’ll all just say “we were right all along and the Hawkey factor added a couple of points after we were in the field”.

    If the final result is higher than that to the ALP, or better than 50-50 for the Coalition, however, there will be some ‘splainin to do.

  14. What is the cause of the shy tory effect? It’s surely prompted by a sense that one’s personal opinion is generally cause for derision in society?

    Considering every telescreen and daily rag has been pumping out the message that Shorten is the devil, isn’t it possible that there might a shy Labor effect? With people not keen to admit that they’ve come around to Labor?

  15. Well, there we go. While I’m not going to celebrate until I see actual results, it’s worth remember the Coalition have failed to lead a single opinion poll before election day since I can’t remember when.

  16. @Fozzie Logic……Where did you hear that?

    Here. There were posts about govt depts doing OT to get the task done……..I may have mistinterpreted the post but I don’t think so.

  17. The Newspoll TPP would give the following seats on Antony Green’s calculator;
    ALP 80
    Coalition 65
    Other 6
    If Hawkey inspires another .5% the calculator would throw up
    ALP 82
    Coalition 63
    Other 6

    I favour 87/58/6

  18. “Are the Melbourne Demons wearing armbands for Hawkey or someone else?”
    Hawke was a South Melbourne then Sydney supporter (#1 ticket holder before elected).

  19. “#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 38 (-1) ALP 37 (0) GRN 9 (0) UAP 4 (0) ON 3 (-1) #auspol”

    Presumably ‘others’ is 9%.

    So, I reckon labor’s true 2PP position on those primaries is 37 + 7.3 + 1.8 + 1.4 + 4.5 = 52%.

    Good. Very good.

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