Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 comments on “Election minus one day”

Comments Page 19 of 31
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  3. I am predicting a Newspoll of 50/50 and Election Night 50.4/49.6 Labors favour with a Minority LNP Government with Mad Katter as the Independent helping form a workable Government

    Other Independents probably will go with Labor so will need to win 2 Extra seats than Labor which they can do by picking up Ind Seats and a few off Labor

    Think this election will see not many seats change hands and the Swing in Victoria not as much as stated and in areas where the Libs have large margins

    Victoria is the Key if Labor does not pick up more than 2 Seats Dunkley not included cause it is a Labor seat on redistribution they are in trouble

    It will be close all round Australia aka 1993 Australian Federal Election but this time Falling to the LNP

    Will see in just over 24 hours also Rural and Urban Fringe will not swing to Labor as much as Inner suburban seat The Turnbull Effect

  4. Chisholm too, I think Labor will get that one, no sitting member, controversy about the Liberal candidate etc.
    Flinders? I suspect Hunt will retain it, but not by much.

  5. Lets try something different:

    Excluding leaders – which candidates suffer a charisma deficit … and how is it they can possibly be voted for by a majority in their electorate?

    I’ll start. The member for Forde – are the elector’s insane? There’s more personality in a Tonka truck.

  7. I live in Goldstein, have hardly seen or heard from the ALP or Greens. Had plenty of Clive paper in the mail box and Libs stuff. Voted early on Thursday, the pre polling station was the first I had seen of the green, alp and Aust Conservatives people.

    My guess is the government will lose nett 3 seats in Victoria (counting Indi as a gain), be even in NSW (recover Wentworth, lose Cowper, gain Lindsay, lose Gilmore), gain Herbert, lose a Brisbane metro seat for nett no change in Qld, gain one in Tas, no change in SA or WA, gain one in NT. So down nett 2 and probably form opposition to a minority ALP/green government.

  9. Bennelong? Rusted on Asian vote in Eastwood and Ryde for John Alexander. Brian Owler’s a really good candidate, might have been better putting him in a more winnable seat or on the senate ticket.

  11. Nath – If Shorten wins I’m going into hiding.

    Not to worry Nath, if Morrison wins I’m going on suicide watch.

  13. Dunkley – you gotta feel a bit sorry for Chris Crewther. He’s been abandoned by Liberal HQ, Morrison hasn’t bothered campaigning there. If he somehow retained the seat against an unfavourable redistribution, it’d be one of the stories of the night

  14. Paul Murray says that the coalition will win tomorrow night by a landslide and says shorten will be dumped by his party

  17. “Sohar
    says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 4:45 pm
    Nath: “If Shorten wins I’m going into hiding.”
    With Alan Jones?”

    I can think of some pretty rotten things to wish on nath…….

    But that is a bridge too far. 🙂

  18. A bit disappointed to see a Fraser Anning candidate in Lindsay….and has top spot on the ballot.
    The only consolation is if people do a donkey vote Labor is no.2……..we also have Australia Party,UAP,Fred Nile,Liberal,Green,Indi,Sunstainable Aus…..so many nutters to put last.

  19. I’ve only been politically engaged since around 2011, so I’ve only really known defeat. Hopefully tomorrow could be a whole new experience

  21. Daughter just sent me a face time of pre polling queue running out of polling station and for a block up George Street in Sydney. Closes 6pm. Good luck!

  22. Sceptic – just wonderful memories of the last true leader in Australian Politics!
    i just love the press room full of people puffing away, room full of smoke and you could bet your life that wasn’t just OJ in Bob’s glass! 🙂
    That era of politics always brings back memories for me of the great Barry Jones – would have to be one of the if not the most intelligent and compassionate members of parliament that century. I remember being absorbed in his “Sleepers Wake” book when studying population Dynamics in college, only needed it for a reference but couldn’t put it down.
    Does anyone know of his health? i’m sure the great man is still with us??

  26. Having live through Menzies, Holt, Snedden, Gorton, McMahon, Whitlam, Fraser, Hawke, Keating, Howard, Rudd, Gillard, Rudd2, Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison I think I will survive whatever happens tomorrow.

    Sorry if I missed anyone

  27. Greetings bludgers … back from a whirlwind trip to Oz and a vote for the true believers. Come on Bill! 🙂

  29. Guy says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 4:56 pm
    Surprise predictions so far

    ———————-

    Yes Goldstein to ALP

  30. The senate is likely to go 2 x coalition, 2 x Labor, 1 x Green and 1 x minor like UAP/PHON/Shooters etc.
    for most states. Which states will buck this trend? Maybe SA?

  31. Careful davidwh, I had the temerity to suggest the world wouldn’t end if the coalition won and that wasn’t received well.

  35. I’ve already put in my polling and Election Day bids.
    Seats: ALP 79; LNP 64; oth 8 (Bandt, Katter, Wilkie, Sharkie, Oakeshot, Steggall, Farrer Ind, Phelps)
    Smokie: 2nd ACT Senate seat – Ind (Lib primary vote fractured by UAP, crossover candidate gaining momentum)

  39. Cud Chewer @ #5260 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 5:04 pm

    Under the table Nath’s feet made convulsive movements. He had not
    stirred from his seat, but in his mind he was running, swiftly running,
    he was with the crowds outside, cheering himself deaf. He looked up again
    at the portrait of Bill Shorten. The colossus that bestrode the world!
    The rock against which the hordes of Asia dashed themselves in vain! He
    thought how ten minutes ago–yes, only ten minutes–there had still been
    equivocation in his heart as he wondered whether the news from the front
    would be of victory or defeat. Ah, it was more than a Eurasian army that
    had perished! Much had changed in him since that first day in the Ministry
    of Love, but the final, indispensable, healing change had never happened,
    until this moment.

    The voice from the telescreen was still pouring forth its tale of prisoners
    and booty and slaughter, but the shouting outside had died down a little.
    The waiters were turning back to their work. One of them approached with
    the gin bottle. Nath, sitting in a blissful dream, paid no attention
    as his glass was filled up. He was not running or cheering any longer. He
    was back in the Ministry of Love, with everything forgiven, his soul white
    as snow. He was in the public dock, confessing everything, implicating
    everybody. He was walking down the white-tiled corridor, with the feeling
    of walking in sunlight, and an armed guard at his back. The long-hoped-for
    bullet was entering his brain.

    He gazed up at the enormous face. Forty years it had taken him to learn
    what kind of smile was hidden beneath the dark moustache. O cruel, needless
    misunderstanding! O stubborn, self-willed exile from the loving breast!
    Two gin-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all
    right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won
    the victory over himself. He loved Bill Shorten.

    We are all in Room 101 now.

  40. I lived through Fraser, Howard, Abbott and Turnball, I could live through 3 years of Morrison………sure, it’s not the end of the world if the other side wins, life does go on. But you’d sure prefer it if your guy or girl triumphs

  43. ltep – clearly the world wouldn’t end.

    However, Labor losing this election would have a series of very unfortunate consequences for our polity.

    The current rabble would only become more of a joke.
    Labor, of course, would need to blood a new leader and would probably ditch the whole notion of having any policies, but rely on the classic opposition tactic of just rubbishing the government to get in.
    Disillusionment by the public in democracy as a concept would only increase, with continuous whining about how our political leaders are so awful.
    The chance of the electorate turning to a Trump or a Grillo or a Duterte or a Zelensky would increase enormously.
    We would continue to be delinquent in our climate change responsibilities.
    And that’s without considering continued corrosion of our public institutions and public service.

    It’s all quite grim, even trying to take a “how bad could it really be?” perspective.

  46. The last 24 hours have been complicated. The election is exciting in the full meaning of the word, and then last night the sadness and profound reflection, which today still murmurs, quietly.

    I just read this. “A lot of my Chinese friends are so sad. And they were saying, a politician may have done a lot of things, but the only things that people remember most is when humanity shines.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2019/may/17/bob-hawke-tiananmen-chinese-students
    I was reminded of the humanity on offer these last few weeks.

    No more Morrison.

  49. Tipping for tomorrow…
    I think Freo over the Bombers tomorrow would go against what the punters are thinking.
    Kate Miller Heidke to romp it in….

    As for the other event. It’s been over for ages. Labor should win big and will win big. Forget just the likes of Deakin falling in Victoria, my eyes are on Aston and Flinders.

    The Greens will win more seats in the lower house but will have less influence as the Labor majority will be well and truly sufficient to carry the day. The Greens have not buggered things up this time round and have maybe learned a big lesson from the Victorian Election and the Batman By-election last year. More members in the lower house will help their cause longer term and the lower primary votes of the 2 major parties will mean more opportunities for them to influence government in to the future.

    Tomorrow might also be labelled as Independents Day. I reckon we shall see about 8 of them in power…

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