Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 comments on “Election minus one day”

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  2. Didn’t know anything about Chalmers, Fess, but yes, very impressive.

    How come you can say a bloke’s easy on the eye, but if we blokes refer to feminine allurements, we get told we’re Old White Men past our use-by date?

    (And don’t say “Because you are.”)

  6. Boerwar

    Bluey has done a Stirling job of wading through the muck of this election campaign. He has earnt himself a well deserved hiatus in his rock pool until the next federal election

  7. Bushfire:

    Chalmers has done a great job as Labor’s official spokesperson during the campaign. I’ve always thought highly of him.

  10. You have to take that pre-poll 53/47 with a grain of salt. It’s an unscientific sub-set and who knows what the MOE would be.

  12. From an undisclosed location…

    Freddie The Smith’s Lake Flathead says “Bloody well done!” to Bluey and “See ya when the tide comes in. “

  20. Next Essential predictions:

    54/46 to Labor if they win.
    51/49 to Labor if they lose.

    I pity anyone who wants to pay attention to polls immediately after an election result!

    I will switch off for at least a year after this (although I will still follow and care about the issues.)

  21. Just saw a clip of Bob Hawke on 7.30 that started with a commercial countdown generator I designed.

    #brushwithbobhawkefame.

  22. LVT
    I asked Bluey about your style of posting, and he reckons you can go fuck yourself, although he doubts you could manage even that.

  26. No particular need to panic about the IPSOS 53/47 pre-poll figure, for several reasons.

    The overall sample size of the poll was 1842, and it was taken up to Wednesday 15 May. By that stage the number of prepoll votes cast was about three and a half million. That is, around 21% of those entitled to vote. So unless pre-pollers were over-represented in the sample, that would mean that the 53/47 is based on a sample of less than 400 pre-poll voters, and the confidence interval (or margin of error if you prefer) would be wide.

    In addition, around another million pre-poll votes have now been cast, and as the number goes up, one would expect the overall characteristics of the pre-poll voting population to become closer to the characteristics of the general population.

  27. Chalmers is easy too look at? All those steamed hams must be paying off. I’m probably thinking of a different Chalmers…

  29. Election 2019 Awards:

    Most pompous commenter with boring financial pontifications: Observer
    Most demented: Bushfire Bill with special mention boerwar
    Worst ugly provincial vulgarian : C@tmomma
    Funniest commenter : Nath
    Best objective analysis: Rex Douglas with special mention Mundo

  32. Lars Von Trier @ #1168 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 8:11 pm

    Election 2019 Awards:

    Most pompous commenter with boring financial pontifications: Observer
    Most demented: Bushfire Bill with special mention boerwar
    Worst ugly provincial vulgarian : C@tmomma
    Funniest commenter : Nath
    Best objective analysis: Rex Douglas with special mention Mundo

    ‘d like to thank my Mum and Jesus…

  33. There is no same/same this time.
    Libs – cuts to health, education, cuts to public service and the beneficiaries tax cuts for TEOT.
    Labor – hunt those tax avoiding multinationals and the wealthy horders and the beneficiaties will be health, education etc.
    Dutton, Abbott, Abetz, Taylor, Price, Hunt or
    Tanya, Chalmers, Wong, O’Connor, Kristine
    Based on performance, Scummo and Co deserve to be in opposition for a long spell and their brawls can be carried out behind closed doors for as long as it takes.

  34. Lars Von Trier @ #1178 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 8:11 pm

    Election 2019 Awards:

    Most pompous commenter with boring financial pontifications: Observer
    Most demented: Bushfire Bill with special mention boerwar
    Worst ugly provincial vulgarian : C@tmomma
    Funniest commenter : Nath
    Best objective analysis: Rex Douglas with special mention Mundo

    Most Up Himself : This guy

  38. Mr Ed says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 8:13 pm

    ‘…and their brawls can be carried out behind closed doors for as long as it takes.’

    The brawls started before the end of the Campaign. Morrison has always been a bad team player. By doing the presidential thing he takes full responsibility for the fall.
    He is a compromise candidate as it is.
    That grinding noise you can hear in the background is of knives being sharpened for Morrison.

  39. And I wear my ‘ugly provincial vulgarity with pride and honour’. Maybe it’s because I’m a True Blue Aussie sheila C@t. 🙂

  43. Check out the photo of Shorten with Bracks and Andrews. Does he look like a man about to lose a federal election to you? As for Chalmers, he will be the next leader of the Labor Party. For the longer term, watch out the MP for Bruce, he is something special too.

  44. davidwh says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 8:16 pm
    Can I add – most missed posters during this term Rummel and Modern Lib?

    What about ESJ? davidwh are you still bullish on a Labor win? How goeth SEQ??

  46. Trog was dealing with some very serious health issues as well.
    If you are lurking, best wishes to you Trog.

  48. Nicholas, government have the resources of a frank and fearless Public Service

    As we saw with the response to sub prime debt morphing to the GFC, with Steven and Henry

    You are Nicholas on a blog

    Which is obviously the only forum open to your abject, repetitive nonsense

    If you want to reside in rent free accommodation courtesy of government accruing unaccountable debt to purchase that accommodation for you plus pay you a salary to sit on a lap top espousing nonsense perhaps you should look for a jurisdiction that accommodates and promotes such a society

    Mind you obesity as the result of such an unaccountable life style of non achievement may reduce life span

    In our society we have those impacted on by circumstances and reliant on public support courtesy of the tax system and the appropriation of tax revenue (and one of the reasons we pay tax)

    Perhaps you could ask those impacted as described above what their preference may be?

    Would they prefer to be self sufficient courtesy of different circumstances?

    Currently, and unfortunately, some in stressed circumstances are labelled by others in society such as the “lifters” and “leaners” comment by Coalition Government Ministers no less

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