Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 comments on “Election minus one day”

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  4. ‘Evan says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 7:05 pm

    The ABC describing Annabell Crabb as “a political expert” – that is a laugh!
    And I agree with the general consensus that Greg Jennett is woeful.’

    Ms Crabbe is an astute observer, IMO. She brings a touch of lightheartedness to her analysis. And a bit of joie de vivre is always a cool oasis in the general desert of what passes for political commentary.
    As for Mr Jennett, IMO it is worth considering whether he ever had a spine and had it removed, or whether he was born without one.

  8. This tribute to Hawkie on the abc news is fantastic. Worth about 1.5% on a two-party preferred basis I’d say.

  14. Pacific Palms Community Centre, 3957 The Lakes Way for us tomorrow morning.

    Then a day cooking, followed by The Great Democracy Barbeque, kicking off at 4.30pm.

    Tandoori chicken shasliks, Asian meatballs, prawn cocktails, Special Fried Rice, sausage sangers, samoosas, spring rolls, nachos, dips. Bikkies, and lots of wine, beer and cheer.

    Labor’s coming, Libs, Nats, UAP, Greens and some Fuck-The-Lot-Of-Yousers. But we have drawn the line at PHONies. They will be ejected at the door.

    Dogs are coming – Schnauzers, Staffy Labs, Bishon Frises, Jack Russels, pig dogs, big dogs, small dogs, city dogs and country dogs. Should be a good night for the furry friends.

    Smokers, dopers, golfers, wowsers, loafers and boozers will also attend.

    Hopefully it will be a true celebration, especially if it includes a win by Labor.

    All welcome (even Librals).

  15. Cassisdy on the Panel a bit earlier. Told a few Hawke stories. Best one was when he was no longer PM and was with a delegation of US Congressmen and waiting for a chartered bus. Just then a car came by with some youngsters. “Come back to the pub with us”. So he did, leaving the Congressmen astounded that such a thing would happen to a VIP.

  16. Fess+Burgey

    I saw the tributes on Sky last night, it was wall to wall and I have to say very good. It was why oaf Abbott’s effort really jarred.

  17. Hey, here’s some joy for you: regardless of what happens in the election, Christopher Pyne will no longer be a thing!

  19. Sportsbet for Swan:
    Labor 1.55
    Liberals 2.35
    Sportsbet odds for Hasluck:
    Labor 1.33
    Liberals 2.90
    WTF is going on over there in texas?

  23. pithicus
    It would be great to think that the West will deliver the icing on a rich cake tomorrow night.
    My only true desire for the West would be for Porter to go west.
    Slippery as.

  24. Hey a question to the pack,
    I’m in Clark. Hobart Tas.
    Do I need to do below the line to make sure Lisa Singh get’s in. I think she got 4th on the Labor party senate spots so it’s just something i want to confirm before tomorrow.

    Cheers.

  28. C@t
    Reality slams its door tomorrow night and leftovers of the leftovers will not be in a position other to sit on their dumped arses.

  31. How can Morrison say this election will be he closest in ages when the last federal election saw the govt get back with a majority of one, and the 2010 election saw a hung parliament? The bloke’s a buffoon.

  33. Citizen,
    The fuller version of this story which I heard Cassidy relate on ABC Radio this morning was that the young folks in the car spotted Hawke and shouted, “Hawke, you’re a legend!”, which drew the quick reply: “Well, if I’m a effing legend, then how about giving us a ride to the pub!” 🙂

  34. With Hawkie having totally gazumped Sco Mo’s campaign at exactly the right time, I like to think that it’s an elaborate ruse, and that on Monday morning, after Labor has coasted to a handsome victory, boosted by nostalgia for the Hawke era, he’ll emerge from hiding, alive and kicking and with a special message for Tony Abbott. It would be the best party trick against the Liberals, ever!

  36. Anyway, Nicholson St Public School for me tomorrow morning handing out, then the arvo off before Petersham RSL for the Albo volunteer do.

    Good luck to everyone. Let’s do this and bring it home.

  38. Sceptic @ #1039 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 7:03 pm

    lefty_e
    Also the worst economic managers! But this is never adequately exposed. Some here blame Labor for that, partly true but I blame our useless compliant media more.

    Blame the Khemlani affair for that.. plus the unmitigated disaster that was David Combe. Gravely damaged Labors credibility .. which never seems to happen to the Liberals no matter how bad they are.

    I think you have made a very good point there.

  39. south
    If you want to make sure that your vote is in danger of being wasted, vote below the line. Go ahead, give Morrison a sniff. Same as the Greens are trying to do.
    If you want to be 100% sure your vote is not wasted, vote above the line.

  45. South

    If you want Singh to win a spot, vote below the line with her as your number one. Then number a minimum of 11 others.

  46. Boerwar @ #1084 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 7:22 pm

    south
    If you want to make sure that your vote is in danger of being wasted, vote below the line. Go ahead, give Morrison a sniff. Same as the Greens are trying to do.
    If you want to be 100% sure your vote is not wasted, vote above the line.

    That’s such a misleading post. You should be ashamed of yourself.

  48. Adrian! I’ll be there between 8-12. If you’re there give us a shout.

    Just so you recognise me, you know Brad Pitt in Thelma and Louise?

    Yeah, I look nothing like him.

  50. Burgey @ #1078 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 7:21 pm

    Anyway, Nicholson St Public School for me tomorrow morning handing out, then the arvo off before Petersham RSL for the Albo volunteer do.

    Good luck to everyone. Let’s do this and bring it home.

    Albo doesn’t need luck. He is a class act. So have a great time celebrating in the area I called home for most of my young life. 🙂

    I will be spending ALL DAY at Hardys Bay Community Church handing out, then scrutineering, then on to the Umina Bowlo for hopefully the Bellweather seat of Robertson, celebration of a Labor victory.

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