While Coalition sources are still making semi-confident noises in their briefings to the press gallery, Scott Morrison seems to have spent most of past week-and-a-bit sandbagging second-tier seats rather than carving out a pathway to victory, while Bill Shorten has remained on the offensive. In the first three weeks of the campaign, Morrison spent roughly as much time in Labor as in Coalition-held electorates, but going back to last weekend, the only prime ministerial visit that seemed in any way targeted at a Labor-held seat was in the New South Wales Central Coast seat of Dobell last Sunday – and that might equally have been pitched at its marginal Liberal-held neighbour, Robertson.
Morrison’s efforts yesterday were devoted to the Melbourne seat of Deakin, which the Liberals believed they had nailed down in more optimistic times earlier in the campaign. Similarly, Friday brought him to Capricornia, one of a number of regional Queensland seats the Coalition was supposedly feeling relaxed about due to the Adani issue. The visit was to Rockhampton, but the announcement of a new CQUniversity mines and manufacturing school equally applied to Gladstone, located in the similarly placed neighbouring seat of Flynn.
Morrison has also spent a lot of time on seats where the Liberals are under pressure from independents. Tuesday was spent straddling the Murray, where Cathy McGowan’s support group hopes to bequeath Indi to Helen Haines on the Victorian side, and Albury mayor Kevin Mack is taking on Liberal member Sussan Ley in the New South Wales seat of Farrer. On Thursday he went to Cowper, which it is feared the Nationals will lose to Rob Oakeshott.
Most remarkably, Morrison also spent the entirety of a trip to Melbourne last Friday in Kooyong, where he made pronouncements on themes not normally considered staples of the Liberal campaign, namely recycling and protection of threatened species (insert Josh Frydenberg joke). The danger there is that the seat will lose the blue-ribbon seat to ex-Liberal independent Oliver Yates. Still more striking is the fact that Bill Shorten felt the seat worth a visit yesterday, if only to be photographed with puppies at Guide Dogs Victoria.
You can find my accounting of the leaders’ movements in spreadsheet form here.
In other news, the last Sunday newspapers of the campaign are typically the first to bring editorial endorsements, although both the Fairfax titles have squibbed it today, as has Perth’s Sunday Times. The four News Corp papers that have taken a stand have all gone as you would expect. The online headline in the Sunday Telegraph says it is “time to end the worst period of political instability and cynicism since federation” – which you should do, naturally, by returning the government. Granted that this makes more sense if you read the whole thing, though very few will of course. In Victoria, the Coalition gets the endorsement of the Sunday Herald Sun, as it did before the state election in November, for all the good it did them. The Brisbane Sunday Mail’s effort is headlined “Australians can’t afford a reckless pursuit of utopia”; the Adelaide Sunday Mail says it’s “time for a steady hand”, i.e. not Bill Shorten’s.
Also today: the latest episode of Seat du jour, tackling the Perth seat of Hasluck.
MMT economists themselves describe the Job Guarantee as an integral feature of the MMT framework because a buffer stock of employed people who are doing socially valuable and ecologically sustainable and skill-enhancing work and who are attractive to mainstream employers is a better price stabiliser than a buffer stock of unemployed people.
A UBI has no price stabilising properties whatsoever because it decouples income from production and it is not counter cyclical.
I think Labor taking it on is an overreaction… but it still makes more sense with Labor’s approach than the LNP’s fwiw…
I want the federal government to make a massive investment in the creation of high quality public housing and high quality community and commercial office space.
I want the federal government’s stocks of those real assets to be so significant that it can always keep the rents down to a reasonable level.
The main message from Labor’s response is that because it has made the hard decisions on getting rid of freebies for the few, it has much larger scope than the Coalition to support the many.
Simple as that.
From I think Blobbit’s link above, First Australians or First Nation people are recent terms most acceptable. ‘Indigenous’ is used frequently especially in policy as it is shorter but not acceptable among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. I am told this longer term is acceptable which is what I use as a collective term.
Boerwar,
Spot on.
I think there’s sufficient evidence to suggest there’s a real chance of a minority Govt situation.
Boerwar
Just popped up in The Guardian!
Octopus farming is ‘unethical and a threat to the food chain’
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/12/octopus-farming-unethical-and-threat-to-food-chain
The group, led by Professor Jennifer Jacquet of New York University, argues that octopuses are highly intelligent, curious creatures. Farming them intensively would probably cause large numbers of deaths from stress.
I agree there is nothing wrong with Jason Ball being referred to as an AFL player turned politician. It’s common usage which is why the media uses it.
It’s not like he was playing rugby.
Cue those small government Liberals who do not believe in interventionist government.
I suppose at the very least Scotty’s brain fart is forcing these people into apoplectic contortions in order to defend the deposit guarantee announcement.
Scott Morrison just tweeted “It is my vision for this country as your Prime Minister to keep the Promise of Australia to all Australians.” and the entire thread is full of people just posting gifs to the effect of “WTF?”
The optimal outcome after the election is that Chris Bowen and Andrew Leigh get mugged by macroeconomic reality very early on, and they start telling the people the truth about the federal government deficit needing to be larger than the current account deficit to enable the domestic private sector to run a surplus and avoid the financial fragility that comes from domestic private sector deficits.
Surely a better return for taxpayers is if the govt took that planned $500m loan and invested it in public housing. The Abbott govt in its 2014 budget slashed funding for public and social housing, abolishing federally funded programs Labor had established.
Nicholas
We might get some real analysis from economists on UBI v Job Guarantee.
Andrew Yang qualified for the Democratic Presidential debates. That means UBI qualified as an issue for debate.
https://qz.com/1536793/your-guide-to-the-2020-democratic-presidential-candidates/
Note that’s not who qualified. This is why more cut off criteria may be applied. 21 with more to come is too many.
My workplace is majority Indigenous Australian.
I find that they like being referred to as Big George, Stevo, Bryce, Little George, Gazza, Pete, Casey etc.
Collectively Labor-voting, hard working top blokes.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 3:49 pm
I think there’s sufficient evidence to suggest there’s a real chance of a minority Govt situation.
———————————————————————————-
Where?? Newscorpse??
Dave from Wagga: Touché!
Blobbit @ #588 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 2:50 pm
There was a Premiership player from the Eagles called Jason Ball and he subsequently played with the Swans back in the 2000s. It’s not this dude and I’m sure the fact that he played AFL at a suburban club level is irrelevant to his political aspirations. However, the media and the candidate continue to make a big deal of it.
Like this line from Tony Wright in Fairfax ….
“The party faithful, apparently, had taken seriously the Prime Minister’s promise of “no hoopla”, and had stayed away in large numbers. The plenary hall of the Melbourne Convention Centre had more empty seats than a Gold Coast Suns versus Fremantle match at Marvel Stadium.”
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/the-pm-promised-a-campaign-launch-free-of-hoopla-and-by-crikey-he-delivered-20190512-p51mir.html
GG
The big deal is because the Greens Jason Ball is an LGBTI activist. Heavily involved with the Pride Rounds the AFL does.
It’s how Mr Ball entered politics. So of course it’s a heavy spotlight from the media v
Dave from Wagga
Mate I think Gippslander wanted to know how aboriginals like to be known as a collective group not as individuals.
Tom @ #586 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 2:49 pm
If in doubt and you have some indigenous people in your audience then ask them their preference. If you don’t have any indigenous in the audience then part of your preparation should be to determine which group is local to your area and consult them.
ltep @ #498 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 1:29 pm
—
“Letting” ? Really. How about you remain silent so we first Australians can speak, for ourselves.
Late Riser ,put me down for a 52 48 . Ta
Having been the furthest travelled (male) to attend a conference in NZ I was determined to be he one to receive the traditional Maori welcome from the students at the Agricultural School near Balclutha some years ago. Very impressive ceremony and not a little intimidating. However, I strongly support welcome ceremonies or indeed simple acknowledgements of country.
If we are every to fully appreciate the tens of thousands of years that this country was looked after by the original Australians and to understand their connection to Country, we have to make it a part of our experience of Country.
Speaking of…
I was listening to this (loud) this morning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16bFBzx7I_0
Aussie 80’s Rock didnt get much better.
Maybe this….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pp6hniAKHw
This is a story with a happy ending about allowing members to have toddlers with them in the NSW Upper House. I particularly like this quote from the Nationals MP Niall Blair at the end of 2017 concerning Arthur Houssos, the young son of Labor member Courtney Houssos.
“The best-behaved person in this House this year has been Arthur Houssos. At times it was the perfect circuit-breaker to have him in the House. It took a little pressure off members and they started to think about what really matters. It has been special to witness all members from all sides of politics playing with him and entertaining him.”
Positive workplace change, one step at a time.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/best-behaved-person-in-the-house-toddlers-free-to-enter-the-chamber-20190510-p51lyy.html
Shiftaling,
The fake AFL player Jason Ball is unfit for office because he claims to be an AFL player when he never played in the AFL. A blatant lie.
EB That’s not fair, “to let” is often used in the sense of “to remain silent in favour of others” as in, for example, “quiet, let the man speak”.
on the first homeowner announcement. alp signal they are open to good ideas from any side. they actually have the fiscal flex to credibly state the support the idea. but can get out later if it models badly. as good policy….its arguable. as politics……good move.
Edi where did he claim to be an AFL player? I doubt anyone would choose to fabricate such an easily disprovable story.
Rex Douglas,
a minority government seems to be a highly unlikely scenario. Labor will almost certainly win and win reasonably comfortably.
Still think that first homebuyers grants are a bad idea. The problem is supply & demand plus a corrupted property market. Increasing purchasing power won’t help.
Greensborough Growler,
It is impossible to play AFL at a local club. AFL is the name of a particular league which plays Australian Rules Football. The fake AFL player Jason Ball played Australian Rules Football at a local club. To say the fake AFL player Jason Ball played AFL is just a blatant lie.
I can tell you that my Koori and Murri mates DO NOT like being referred to as “aboriginals”.
I work with a racist old Nats voting bastard from Ganmain who calls them such. It’s really very offensive.
Observer @ #566 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 2:33 pm
Once again, you are talking through your hat regarding the operation of the Owner Occupier Housing market.
1. Most of the Lenders on my Panel will currently fund Loans up to 95% of the value of the proposed property. This includes Lenders Mortgage Insurance. So in effect, Buyers need up to 10% of the purchase price to settle a transaction (to cover LMI, Stamp duty (if applicable), Solicitor fees and so on).
2. Lenders Mortgage insurance is an insurance policy the lenders take out on the purchaser to cover them in the event of the purchaser defaulting on the loan. It’s a sliding scale and depends on the LVR of the proposed transaction. The higher the LVR, the higher the LMI. LMI does not do anything for the Purchaser. If they were to default then the re-insurer that the Lender uses will pursue the home owner. Home Owners can capitalise LMI in to the final lend. But, as I said, only to a total LVR of 95%.
3. Banks do not demand a 30% deposit. Lenders will advance funds against the property value provided the applicant can service the loan. LMI is payable only if the LVR exceeds 80% of the value of the property.
4. The benefit of this announcement is that First home Buyers will not pay LMI. At what interest rate and cost of application because of the higher risks? The Government is, in effect going to absorb the cost of higher LVR Loans defaulting. The question is why does the government need to take on risk that our Banks try to lay off?
C@t, what do you mean about Wayne and I being brothers?
Newspoll 52:48 ALP
Hi everyone.
I’m home again and very relieved to be in touch with PB once more. Where have I been? Stuck in rehab after a minor brain operation to improve my balance. Forced to survive on a diet of TV news and nothing else, I began to believe that ScoMo was a saint and Labor had no hope at all.
All the commentary seemed to be about what an excellent campaigner he was and the pics showed a confident, smiling man towering over his companions, shaking hands in all directions, helping oldies to their feet, sympathising with the downtrodden, and handing out billions to every electorate. There wasn’t a Labor promise he didn’t try to trump or to ridicule. When Chloe proved a winner at the launch, Jenny Morrison was quickly brought forward as her equal.
It was so obvious (to me, anyway) that the LNP campaign was running along behind Labor’s like a little kid copying its parent and trying to look like an adult.
I guess if Mr Morrison had tried to talk about a dream rather than a promise for Australia, it would have invited unflattering comparisons with Martin Luther King.
guytaur says:
Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 3:54 pm
I must say I have always assumed he was the Jason Ball that played in the AFL.
It does seem strange to emphasise his football playing considering he would have only been semi-professional at best.
Also there seems to have been little effort to differentiate him from the professional AFL player of the same name.
Edi_Mahin @ #685 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 4:29 pm
Rubbish,
Some years ago the various codes of football in Australia struck a naming agreement for their codes of Football for marketing and brand building purposes.
Rugby Union became Rugby.
Rugby League became Australian Rugby League. (ARL)
Australian Rules Football became Australian Football League (AFL)
Soccer became Football.
So, local AFL Leagues play AFL.
“the additional loan amount taken out by the first-home buyer”
Is the money phrase from Morrison, all he is doing is taking the risk and guaranteeing that the Govt will pay in the case of a default. The banks will love it, higher loans with lower risk. A very Liberal Party policy.
If Labor win it will be binned.
Jordan @ #686 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 4:34 pm
It was a joke. I should have put at the end of the comment but most people would, I think, get what I meant. Sorry if I offended you. 🙂
Guytaur,
As far as I’m aware Jason Ball and the Victorian Greens have never claimed he is ex-AFL.
This is from Jason Ball’s Wikipedia entry:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jason_Ball_(activist)
Yay! Lizzie’s back! And Ruawake too!
Here’s a song for us all to celebrate with, considering the topic du jour today:
https://youtu.be/S7cbkxn4G8U
Barney
That’s the media talking about his work with the Pride Cup being confused with his club playing.
To my knowledge Ball has never claimed to be a full on professional player of one of the teams in the League.
lizzie
Welcome back. I hope that the next six days provide the best possible rehab you could get.
Starting hopefully with tonight’s Newspoll.
So that’s why he talks about his background in football, geddit?