While Coalition sources are still making semi-confident noises in their briefings to the press gallery, Scott Morrison seems to have spent most of past week-and-a-bit sandbagging second-tier seats rather than carving out a pathway to victory, while Bill Shorten has remained on the offensive. In the first three weeks of the campaign, Morrison spent roughly as much time in Labor as in Coalition-held electorates, but going back to last weekend, the only prime ministerial visit that seemed in any way targeted at a Labor-held seat was in the New South Wales Central Coast seat of Dobell last Sunday – and that might equally have been pitched at its marginal Liberal-held neighbour, Robertson.
Morrison’s efforts yesterday were devoted to the Melbourne seat of Deakin, which the Liberals believed they had nailed down in more optimistic times earlier in the campaign. Similarly, Friday brought him to Capricornia, one of a number of regional Queensland seats the Coalition was supposedly feeling relaxed about due to the Adani issue. The visit was to Rockhampton, but the announcement of a new CQUniversity mines and manufacturing school equally applied to Gladstone, located in the similarly placed neighbouring seat of Flynn.
Morrison has also spent a lot of time on seats where the Liberals are under pressure from independents. Tuesday was spent straddling the Murray, where Cathy McGowan’s support group hopes to bequeath Indi to Helen Haines on the Victorian side, and Albury mayor Kevin Mack is taking on Liberal member Sussan Ley in the New South Wales seat of Farrer. On Thursday he went to Cowper, which it is feared the Nationals will lose to Rob Oakeshott.
Most remarkably, Morrison also spent the entirety of a trip to Melbourne last Friday in Kooyong, where he made pronouncements on themes not normally considered staples of the Liberal campaign, namely recycling and protection of threatened species (insert Josh Frydenberg joke). The danger there is that the seat will lose the blue-ribbon seat to ex-Liberal independent Oliver Yates. Still more striking is the fact that Bill Shorten felt the seat worth a visit yesterday, if only to be photographed with puppies at Guide Dogs Victoria.
You can find my accounting of the leaders’ movements in spreadsheet form here.
In other news, the last Sunday newspapers of the campaign are typically the first to bring editorial endorsements, although both the Fairfax titles have squibbed it today, as has Perth’s Sunday Times. The four News Corp papers that have taken a stand have all gone as you would expect. The online headline in the Sunday Telegraph says it is “time to end the worst period of political instability and cynicism since federation” – which you should do, naturally, by returning the government. Granted that this makes more sense if you read the whole thing, though very few will of course. In Victoria, the Coalition gets the endorsement of the Sunday Herald Sun, as it did before the state election in November, for all the good it did them. The Brisbane Sunday Mail’s effort is headlined “Australians can’t afford a reckless pursuit of utopia”; the Adelaide Sunday Mail says it’s “time for a steady hand”, i.e. not Bill Shorten’s.
Also today: the latest episode of Seat du jour, tackling the Perth seat of Hasluck.
And they’ve left it ’til the last few days so no-one can check it out.
Marcia Langton
Verified account @marcialangton
Gay man seriously injured by police in raid on famous #LGBTIQ+ bookshop in Melbourne – hospitalised with head injury & May lose use of his arm after police operation at “wrong Fitzroy property”: https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/man-hospitalised-after-police-operation-at-wrong-fitzroy-property-20190511-p51mcy.html … via @theage #PoliceBrutality
Oh boy the more the talking heads try to work out the details of this the worse it sounds! What’s the bet this will be shredded by tomorrow afternoon.
Sadly, I missed the Scotty Launch.
Speaking just now to a rusted on Liberal friend, he said it was a disaster. Doom and gloom the most positive emotions.
Fess
I doubt Morrison spent more than five minutes cooking up this cockamanie policy
I still keep coming back to the fact that Morrison moving his NPC speech to the day of the advertising blackout starting is remarkably dodgy.
Well, that was boring. Morrison cut a tiny lonely figure on that big empty stage.
Probyn points out the infrastructure policy is uncosted, undetailed and is just ridiculous.
I think that, as in the past, a First Home Buyers Deposit Scheme will only push prices up and increase profits for Real Estate agents. I guess it’s one way to get house prices going up again. 😐
Kroger comparing parts of the Morrison’s speech to President Kennedy’s!
Vic:
It was obviously cooked up on the fly, otherwise it would’ve been announced earlier in the campaign before 2+ million Australians had already voted.
Hell0 Bludgers Blessed be Lucien Ayes NBN , it carked it yesterday and have to wait until Monday afternoon for a tech to make contact! Looks like the service dept is pretty skinny
Any way could a Bludger summarise how the Pastor Fozzie’s revivalist service went? I am on itty bitty screen so a bit hard to scroll back.
From PvO’s pov:
One thing about knowing you’re going to lose is that you can announce any old bollocks without worrying about how to actually make it work.
As for Welcome to Country ceremonies, I rather enjoy this take on the matter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRn9WpXvGD0
Damn it trying to post fb pictures to this blog! 😡
I imagine the Daily Tele will rave and rave about the supposed brilliance of Scotty’s launch, but wiser heads in the press gallery will pull that thing apart pretty quickly.
mb – normally I find a lot to respect in your posts on your thinking.
This seems remarkably shallow analysis.
I’m no expert/authority on this, and I certainly don’t claim to be. I’m sick of jingoistic symbolism as well. However, a few points that occur to me:
(1) it’s not, and shouldn’t be, about what the non-indigenous think – if a sizeable portion of the Aboriginal community think this is a good and respectful thing to do, then we should do it.
(2) ‘acknowledgement/welcome to country’ has certainly become part of the culture wars – having or not having an acknowledgement/welcome to country has become something of a virtue signalling exercise. However, as such – like Australia day – I have come to the view that it is much better to have a public focus point for discussions – for good and ill – than to have nothing. If going through the motions – however self-interestedly, or however disingenuously – means that the issues of where we all fit in this society, and how we all relate to Australia’s indigenous heritage, are kept visible and front-of-mind, then it has value in and of itself.
(3) my only ‘minority’ connection is being gay. ‘Visibility’ as an issue for gay men is certainly no longer any great concern from that perspective, but in the not too distant past it was quite a different landscape. I can’t claim to be connected with the specific concerns of indigenous Australians, but I would lay a bet that visibility, or positive or neutral visibility, is very much an issue. Even if some acknowledgement/welcome to country efforts are devoid of vitality and/or nothing more than guilt-assuaging rituals they still provide a visibility that I am guessing is valued by many indigenous Australians – and, again, what matters is their opinion, not mine.
(4) should we stop at acknowledgement/welcome to country and not press for more substantive changes? Of course not, but one doesn’t preclude the other. Should we try to do better? Absolutely. Should we listen to what the indigenous communities want? Absolutely.
(5) coming to absolutist conclusions about whether truly honouring the meaning of acknowledgement/welcome to country means we need to be prepared to en-masse depart from the continent is not really helpful. Yes, human history is bursting at the seams with conquest and dispossession. We do strive to do better, and we hopefully strive to not repeat the mistakes, or wilful evils, of the past. At the end of the day we do have to be realistic about what is possible and what is not. We can’t undo Australia’s history. But just because we can’t – or rather, aren’t willing – to work towards such an extreme doesn’t mean that we can’t find better reconciliation outcomes. Going to any extreme is rarely (never?) useful in finding workable respectful solutions.
Confessions @ #461 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 12:51 pm
It must be becoming obvious to the Coalition that Housing Affordability is a thing. 😐
The first home deposit scheme is just the same as previously attempted first home owner grants and will do nothing to make homes ownership any more attainable.
Do we really care what the DT says? Because we know how they’ll spin it.
Kroger doesn’t think today will make much difference, but does say he’s pleased that Scotty reinforced commitment to the EW link.
doyley @ #469 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 12:55 pm
And this new announcement just proves how unimaginative and bereft of ideas the Coalition is.
The home deposit announcement was nothing more than a attempt to get a headline. Whether it will work or not is irrelevant.
Straight out of the Morrison playbook.
Confessions @ #471 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 12:55 pm
The emblem of the modern Liberal Party…Private Toll Roads.
Insiders ABC
Verified account @InsidersABC
4h4 hours ago
“I’m informed that none of the former prime ministers are attending, and none of them were invited,” says @annabelcrabb ahead of the Liberal Party campaign launch later today.
Thanks Jackol, I started writing a response a few times only to delete so it’s good to have something to concur with that’s written so well!
Summarising “The Launch!”
Morrison is trying to be a likeable authoritarian. He arranged for his “supportive” women to lead him on. Then they left him alone on a big big stage. That was symbolic on several levels. He rambled wtte “how good is (blank)?” A bunch of anti-ALP adverts intruded on his emptiness from time to time. His team were encouraged to applaud from the stalls. He finally left the stage and walked into his adoring (not) throng and allowed a few of them to slap him on the back.
Did I miss anything? (I admit I couldn’t watch most of it.)
poroti:
PvO’s view from the launch. Looks pretty empty, except down the very front. Why didn’t they use a smaller venue?
Warrigal says:
Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 12:34 pm
When has that ever made a difference? 🙂
Hope they Scotty and the flock aren’t attacked bu those out of control African Gangs as the leave the launch.
LR, that just about sums it up. A bit too long, even for Scomo. He was starting to lag reading the auto prompt and at one stage he was so quiet I couldn’t hear him.
To top it off, he even apologised about the length and told people he was almost finished. The audience applauded as did I at home.
Sportsbet update:
Labor 1.13
Coalition 6.00
make of that what you will.
I reckon Labor might have picked up another 10 seats over the past week. I know (trust me!!) that some senior Labor people were getting quite nervous last weekend, but that nervousness has now disappeared. I doubt that Labor could have hoped for any better few days than we have seen since Monday. And today’s Morrison “tour de farce” has sealed it. I’m upgrading my Labor seat forecast to 86 (a week ago I would have been happy with 76….). Fingers crossed.
A “First Home Buyers” scheme is actually a vendors scheme.
Sorry if this has been mentioned but the venue looks like the Alexander Theatre at Monash Uni. Clayton – sorry not sure which seat that would fall into.
Everything points to the LNP switching to save the furniture mode. They’ve lost. They know it. The focus will now be on trying to win 60-ish seats to remain competitive in 3 years’ time. But they will struggle to break 60.
It’s sad that some people find it so difficult to acknowledge the past and show respect.
Especially when it takes such little effort. 🙁
From the Climate Analytics group a review of Australian parties climate policies for this election. Only the Greens policies are anywhere within the Paris agreement targets, Labor just scraping in the bottom of the minimum, LNP as expected a disaster.
This analysis of policies doesn’t include, as far as I can tell, the ridiculous promise from Labor to put $1.5 billion dollars of taxpayers money into fracking the Beetaloo and Galilee basins. Which would add massively to GHG emissions and foster fossil fuel industry, but probably few jobs, when it’s time to leave it in the ground. Not to mention the damage to land and water resources.
I’d guess Hewson as someone active and informed on climate change would be reading similar such analyses and realising which party actually has the best policies to address the coming changes, one way or another. The Greens are really the only MP’s who are not beholden to industry donors and interests who will definitely see it through.
It seems the biggest critique of Greens by RWNJs is that they might actually do what they said they will before the election, and are therefore dangerous. As opposed to the usual AusPol non-choices, lies and pork-barrelling before elections, whatever the donors and business want after elections.
Plenty of infographics, in evaluation (bottom link), on how shit Austtralia has been over recent decades, with the only real drop in GHG emissions during the Labor/Greens/Indie carbon price 2010 to 2013. Some idea of how much there is to do too, starting as soon as possible.
Australian election: analysis of parties’ climate change targets
https://climateanalytics.org/latest/australian-election-analysis-of-parties-climate-change-targets/
Full report pdf – https://climateanalytics.org/media/ca_-_australian_political_party_positions_and_the_paris_agreement_-_2019.05.10_1.pdf
Evaluating Australia’s climate policy action
“Of the 10 countries studied, Australia stands out as having no 2030 or 2050 renewable energy target, no decarbonisation strategy for electricity and no coal phase-out plan.”
https://climateanalytics.org/briefings/evaluating-australias-climate-policy-action/
Bushfire Bill says:
Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 12:46 pm
But they forget that non-eleventy mathematics is much quicker and far more accurate. 🙂
They’re now playing Bill’s speech on ABC digital channel
Jackol: thanks for your serious and considered response to my post. I don’t entirely agree with it, but I certainly do agree with your observation that welcome to country ceremonies have become a bit caught up in the culture wars: I recall Tony Abbott railing against them a while back.
I have no information one way or the other of whether the indigenous community supports the idea of whitefellas giving acknowledgements in the manner that has now become fashionable. In all my encounters with these, it was exclusively whitefellas driving the whole process. Perhaps these acknowledgements are considered valuable by indigenous people; or, as there tend to be strong differences of opinion among indigenous people on most matters at least by a sizeable proportion of them. If so, then of course we should keep doing the acknowledgements, and it is certainly wrong for politicians and others to point blank refuse to do them. I have been asked to give acknowledgements on a number of occasions, and have tried very hard to do so with meaning, but to me the words seemed empty and inadequate and – because there were no traditional owners of the land actually present on any of these occasions – verging on irony.
Perhaps there’s a better way of doing it. As I said in my post, I have been greatly impressed and moved by the way these things are done in NZ. We could try to learn from them.
Confessions
Perhaps tbey had a log of late cancellations 🙂
Probyn pointed out the the First Home Buyers’ scheme was not in the Budget, and is completely uncosted. There are no details.
It’s a complete brain fart, Hail Mary pass, run it up the flag pole scam. Vote ScoMo (forget the Libetals) and get a free set of steak knives.
@Coalition Tea Lady:
Lol! – beyond the first rows at Scottie’s launch – the audience is invisible.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6VGsiuUEAAD278?format=png&name=small
laughtong
Pretty sure it’s the Melbourne Convention Centre. I’ve been to a lot of Labor Conferences there, never seen it look so empty.
I have only been occasionally vicariously following the launch of the new Morrison Party via this site. Seems like I haven’t missed much.
I see that the Australian women’s 4×100 relay team clocked 43.19 in Tokyo, the fastest time by an Australian team since 2000 – guaranteeing them a place in the World Championships later this year.
This is the team – Naa Anang, Riley Day, Maddison Coates and Sally Pearson. I just love that Ghana-born Naa Anang who is mainly a long-jumper has the very Australian instagram tag “@ohyeahnaa” !
Barney @ 1:15
“It’s sad that some people find it so difficult to acknowledge the past and show respect.
Especially when it takes such little effort.”
That’s the point, Barney! It takes so little effort that it’s as meaningless as the prayers before every day’s HOR sitting!
IF we REALLY meant it, we’d Piss off from somebody’s property!
PS The New testament recommends that we be “all things to all men”
What about that we pledge ourselves to make every effort to immerse ourselves into the way of life of everybody that we meet, and welcome them into our way of life! that’s not so easy, and a bit more meaningful!
How about letting indigenous people lead the argument about abolishing welcome to country instead of presuming we know better?
ABC 24 Channel…
Bill’s absolutely on fire. Really revving it up. I’ve never seen him so passionate and fluid.
From memory the first and second Howard Costello first home owners grant just saw a rise in first home prices .