While Coalition sources are still making semi-confident noises in their briefings to the press gallery, Scott Morrison seems to have spent most of past week-and-a-bit sandbagging second-tier seats rather than carving out a pathway to victory, while Bill Shorten has remained on the offensive. In the first three weeks of the campaign, Morrison spent roughly as much time in Labor as in Coalition-held electorates, but going back to last weekend, the only prime ministerial visit that seemed in any way targeted at a Labor-held seat was in the New South Wales Central Coast seat of Dobell last Sunday – and that might equally have been pitched at its marginal Liberal-held neighbour, Robertson.
Morrison’s efforts yesterday were devoted to the Melbourne seat of Deakin, which the Liberals believed they had nailed down in more optimistic times earlier in the campaign. Similarly, Friday brought him to Capricornia, one of a number of regional Queensland seats the Coalition was supposedly feeling relaxed about due to the Adani issue. The visit was to Rockhampton, but the announcement of a new CQUniversity mines and manufacturing school equally applied to Gladstone, located in the similarly placed neighbouring seat of Flynn.
Morrison has also spent a lot of time on seats where the Liberals are under pressure from independents. Tuesday was spent straddling the Murray, where Cathy McGowan’s support group hopes to bequeath Indi to Helen Haines on the Victorian side, and Albury mayor Kevin Mack is taking on Liberal member Sussan Ley in the New South Wales seat of Farrer. On Thursday he went to Cowper, which it is feared the Nationals will lose to Rob Oakeshott.
Most remarkably, Morrison also spent the entirety of a trip to Melbourne last Friday in Kooyong, where he made pronouncements on themes not normally considered staples of the Liberal campaign, namely recycling and protection of threatened species (insert Josh Frydenberg joke). The danger there is that the seat will lose the blue-ribbon seat to ex-Liberal independent Oliver Yates. Still more striking is the fact that Bill Shorten felt the seat worth a visit yesterday, if only to be photographed with puppies at Guide Dogs Victoria.
You can find my accounting of the leaders’ movements in spreadsheet form here.
In other news, the last Sunday newspapers of the campaign are typically the first to bring editorial endorsements, although both the Fairfax titles have squibbed it today, as has Perth’s Sunday Times. The four News Corp papers that have taken a stand have all gone as you would expect. The online headline in the Sunday Telegraph says it is “time to end the worst period of political instability and cynicism since federation” – which you should do, naturally, by returning the government. Granted that this makes more sense if you read the whole thing, though very few will of course. In Victoria, the Coalition gets the endorsement of the Sunday Herald Sun, as it did before the state election in November, for all the good it did them. The Brisbane Sunday Mail’s effort is headlined “Australians can’t afford a reckless pursuit of utopia”; the Adelaide Sunday Mail says it’s “time for a steady hand”, i.e. not Bill Shorten’s.
Also today: the latest episode of Seat du jour, tackling the Perth seat of Hasluck.
I am now willing to say I am confident (with >85% confidence level) that Labor will form government.
There has been a lot of noise on both social media and the MSM about how close it is, how Rupert’s final scare campaign, yet to be unleashed, will change the polls by the 1.5% needed for the Coalition to be returned.
But, I am just not seeing a 1.5% swing in the last week to the Coalition in the last week.
However, we need to thank Paul Bongiorno for letting us know in the Sat Paper that the Rupertariat was intending to run a highly defamatory smear campaign against Shorten in this final week. By forewarning us, he may have saved Australia from the worst effects of this smear campaign warping the vote.
But note the >85% confidence. With the current TPP, the Coalition can win, and we should not be complacent.
Happy Birthday Jen 🙂
D and M
Confidence up 5% in an hour.
At that rate it will be 100% by sunrise.
“From the blog above:
The online headline in the Sunday Telegraph says it is “time to end the worst period of political instability and cynicism since federation” – which you should do, naturally, by returning the government.’
Love the comment – says it all.
Roger Miller,
Ahh, you read my post on this blog and the last blog.
I am definitely getting more confident 🙂
And Happy birthday Jen!
Scummo will Yap YAp YAP at the launch today with his colleagues there to show their support. LOL
Remember – DEBT and DEFICIT.
The promise to have a budget surplus every year they were in Government. Actual, not one surplus.
Then there was to be the pay down of debt. Up and up and up. Will those Corporates who love talk of a trickle down economy be around to help us reduce it? Or are they just here for the tax cuts the L/NP says have to happen or the sky will fall in.
Goodbye and good riddance Scummo and Co.
A spoof on Pauline’s fight against the Semitic world:
https://twitter.com/JustJen64/status/1127156756121960448
the Sunday Telegraph says it is “time to end the worst period of political instability and cynicism since federation”
By re-electing the clownshow?
Yeah…. nah.
Very naughty of Bill and KK to do photo ops with puppies in Kooyong straight after Morrison’s visit there.
“I strongly suspect that it might be what Michaelia Cash was alluding to in Senate Estimates last year.
If it is, then it’s bleeding obvious who the source is, and it won’t end up well for her.”
Anything Cash touches turns to crap.
If the story supposedly being sat on is one about treatment of women in Shortens office then its an attempt to drag the whole #metoo thing into the election.
Now, given the own goal that was the “Shortens Mum” story went completely pear shaped for them, i’d think they would be reluctant to go there?? Any, “evidence” or statements accusing Shorten of anything at this stage of the campaign would set off peoples bullshit detectors big time. To even have a chance of changing anyone’s mind on Shorten they would need a woman / women to make direct public accusations supporting what Cash said in Senate estimates.
And the DT have been shit-canned in court recently over the Rush allegations??
Do the Libs REALLY want something out there that will rebound into the theme of their “women problems”??
Do they want ANY issue out there in the last week of the campaign that will have Cash front and center??
Do they REALLY think its a good idea to go somewhere that is going to be interpreted as an attack on Shortens family life and by extension his wife and kids?
And in that context do they REALLY want something out there that will draw attention back to Barnyard the Beetrooter’s extracurricular activities with a staffer and the effect on his wife and kids??
Look..the Libs / RWFW brigade may well go with something like this. There really is no depth of stupidity they wont plumb, and they are getting desperate enough to say anything in the hope that the shock value this close to the election will swing people. Reality is that kind of dirt wont change anyone’s vote, just reinforce whatever people existing views are.
And that’s been the whole problem for the Libs in this campaign. They have focused on getting the RW end of their base solid to try and hold on to seats they have, not win the extra seats they need.
Sally McManus on twitter just now:
Apparently @ScottMorrisonMP has just said I will be on every board of every company in the country if Labor is elected. I’m sure going to be busy #ausvotes
Happy birthday Jenauthor.
Happy birthday Bill Shorten.
Happy Mother’s Day to all the Bludger Mums.
Labor now in to $1.13 on Sportsbet vs Lib @ $6.00 for sworn in government. ($1.14 v $5.50 last night)
Betting on both Abbott and Dutton to lose their seats still suspended after moving in to $1.70 favourite earlier yesterday.
Surely if there is any positive internal polling for the Libs those odds would disappear quick smart.
Happy birthday Jenauthor, and a happy mothers day to all the mums out there who have done a stirling job. And to keep this on politics Labor to win 90 seats next saturday and the x bench to be ten.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers and I hope all you mothers out there have a great Mothers Day!
Ireland and Wroe write about the Coalition’s problem with women voters.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/a-silent-majority-women-look-to-exercise-power-as-parties-chase-their-vote-20190509-p51lpt.html
Bevan Shields looks at the prized seat of Higgins ton hat is a knife-edge as the Liberal vote heads south.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/the-mood-has-turned-prized-seat-of-higgins-on-a-knife-edge-as-liberal-vote-heads-south-20190511-p51ma9.html
Jacqui Maley says that some on the ALP side relish the thought of the Coalition losing the election but Abbott holding his seat – to ensure a divided Liberal Party in opposition.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-do-some-labor-types-hope-tony-abbott-wins-warringah-20190510-p51m4z.html
In quite a good article Peter Martin says Labor’s costings broadly check out and the days of black holes are thankfully behind us.
https://theconversation.com/labors-costings-broadly-check-out-the-days-of-black-holes-are-behind-us-thankfully-116904
Dave Donovan shares ten good reasons why the LNP needs to be voted out.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/ten-good-reasons-why-the-lnp-has-to-go,12662
Jordan Baker writes about Jenny Morrison, the ‘unrecognisable’ woman behind the PM.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/meet-jenny-morrison-the-unrecognisable-woman-behind-the-pm-20190509-p51lui.html
Caitlin Fitzsimmons bemoans the low key reaction to the United Nations report of extinctions last week.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/the-un-says-we-re-destroying-the-world-this-should-change-everything-20190510-p51m11.html
The Victorian Minister for Women writes on how unscrupulous clinics can take advantage of vulnerable women who are longing for a child and that IVF should be affordable fore everyone, not just the rich.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/ivf-should-be-affordable-for-everyone-not-just-the-rich-20190509-p51lr1.html
More questions have been raised in the Watergate scandal as Jommy Tee and Ronni Salt uncover the partnership between Angus Taylor and Tony Reid in an Independent Australia exclusive.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/angus-taylor-and-tony-reid-joined-at-the-business-hip,12663
But the Canberra Tines reports that Morrison is standing by his Liberal colleague Angus Taylor after the energy minister admitted to failing to disclose a company he was involved in when he entered parliament.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6118622/no-conflict-of-interest-by-taylor-pm/?cs=14231
The Labor party has pledged an extra $60m to the ABC and SBS should it win government next week, to boost the production of Australian content.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/may/11/labor-pledges-extra-60m-for-abc-and-sbs
Mums returning to work will have up to 20 per cent of tax sliced off picking up an extra day of work under Labor’s $4 billion childcare policy, reports Eryk Bagshaw.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-s-plan-slashes-20pc-off-tax-bill-for-primary-carers-new-analysis-shows-20190508-p51lfd.html
In a week full of environmental issues Lisa Cox asks where in the hell Melissa Price is.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/11/missing-in-action-hunt-goes-on-for-coalitions-invisible-environment-minister
And the Morrison Government’s quiet approval of a controversial uranium mine in Western Australia the day before the Federal Election was called is evidence that our national environment laws are broken and too often subverted for political purposes.
https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/adani-yeelirrie-and-mining-our-environmental-laws-are-broken,12664
With populists in control of the world’s most populous democracies, not least the United States, a question on the mind of many is what effect populism might have on this month’s Australian federal elections.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/11/populism-and-the-australian-election-what-could-fringe-voters-deliver-to-our-parliament
In an open letter to Israel Falau Paul Cully tells him exactly where he went wrong and why he should be sacked. And it’s got nothing to do with religious persecution.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-union/i-know-where-you-re-coming-from-izzy-it-s-where-we-go-that-differs-20190511-p51mb1.html
It seeks some AFL supporters just can’t help themselves. This time there were multiple fights at the Collingwood-Carlton game.
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/multiple-fights-break-out-at-mcg-during-collingwood-carlton-game-20190511-p51mcv.html
Kate McClymont nominates this slime bag for “Arsehole of the Week”.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/convicted-conman-matt-simons-up-to-his-old-tricks-20190510-p51lyc.html
Cartoon Corner
From Matt Golding.
Nice work from Reg Lynch.
Zanetti enters the home straight for News Corp.
From the US
I will miss my “Democracy Sausage” on 18th May, but I am pleased to see it is happening on London :https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/federal-election-2019-aussie-voters-in-london-taste-first-democracy-sausage-20190512-p51mff.html
I did a search for Labor abroad, but unfortunately they are only in London in my (now) neck of the woods. Pleased to see they are starting their “afterparty” at 10:00 British summer time (11:00 continental time, 1900 EAST). I will not feel quite so decadent by celebrating with a Sekt Trocken, at 12:00 continental time. I am increasingly comfortable that Antony Green will be calling the election about then, and for the good guys!
Thanks BK. From Bevan Shields’ report from Higgins:
Yet on Insiders Cassidy said the Liberal vote in Victoria had recovered from where it sunk after Turnbull was knifed. Could the govt simply be concern trolling the media?
D+M, the sausages in Germany are not the wurst going around and if i was there i would be tucking in for sure.
MH,
You are absolutely correct! They taste particularly good when eaten on a cold day purchased from a market vendor. Now I think about it, sounds like my lunch plan tomorrow, after visiting the August Macke Haus.
Did I mention how much I like Bonn?
Howard kept hold on government by appealing to the battlers. He didn’t do anything for them, but he appealed to them. Morrison is trying the same by showing he is willing to kick welfare recipients under the bus to protect battlers on 150k of with 1.5m in shares. I wonder why it’s not working?
Zali Steggal has volunteers at Australia House in London for overseas voters. She also has 4 volunteers at all times in the North Sydney prepoll. Shes really going after every vote.
The Age is reporting Labor will contribute $10b towards the Suburban Rail Loop project in Melbourne.
Game over. It doesn’t matter what happens in Qld or NSW. The election will be won for Shorten in Victoria.
Roger Miller,
About to sign off for the night, and it is definitely sunrise by now in the eastern states of Oz.
Getting close to 100%, because I think that if the “Big Scare Campaign ” by the Murdoch media did not break this morning, the it will have little effect, even if it does break.
Of course, after this prediction, I fully expect to wake up to some black swan event favouring the coalition – karma or something …
Talking to politically active friends last night at a function at our place last night.
Dutton over and out in Dickson, Vasta in serious trouble in Bonner and a swing to Labor in Griffith.
An observation on the Liberal campaign in Dickson:
Bonner is in play? I dont think thats come up in the list of seats of note.
For anyone wondering what was in those “Budgie smugglers”.
Canny move on the Melbourne Suburban Rail Loop Zenith. A commentator on another blog noticed that all the Melbourne seats on the proposed route of the Loop had outsize swings to the ALP at the State election. In this case it could be effective in Deakin in particular.
Labor’s had a pretty active campaign in Bonner, I think, more placards & more people waving placards at street corners than I’ve generally seen anywhere else.
I haven’t seen very many for the LNP candidate for Griffith, oddly.
My gut feeling is that Labor will perform better in QLD this time around, though seats like Dawson are probably still out of reach.
Morrison spent roughly as much time in Labor as in Coalition-held electorates, but going back to last weekend, the only prime ministerial visit that seemed in any way targeted at a Labor-held seat was in the New South Wales Central Coast seat of Dobell last Sunday – and that might equally have been pitched at its marginal Liberal-held neighbour, Robertson.
Better to turn this statement around the other way.
…the Prime Ministerial visit last weekend was to the Labor-held seat of Dobell but was really pitched at its marginal Liberal-held neighbour, Robertson.
In other words, it was a shadow play for Dobell but really aimed at trying to hold on in Robertson.
Actually, it’s fair to say that the Coalition themselves have made Dobell more Labor than it otherwise would have been by the NSW State Coalition government adopting a policy of removing Public Housing tenants from the Inner City of Sydney, reclaiming their property and then sending them up to the Central Coast around the Wyong area.
Thanks, Gladys!
This has tended to balance out the surge in Hooray Henrys and Henriettas moving to the coastal regions of the Dobell electorate and boosting the Liberal numbers.
However, John Singleton is giving it a red hot go to turn the Central Coast back to the Liberal Party by building a lot of expensive high rise apartment towers in Gosford.
This is also happening in Dobell around The Entrance but not to the same high cost extent.
So, interesting seats to watch in upcoming elections.
Who is the candidate in every seat?
https://twitter.com/i/status/1127084164681912320
Morrison’s visit to Cowper was to Port Macquarie. Nats are hugely on the nose in Coffs not only over screwing up the plans for the highway bypass (a massive local issue) but also because their Port-based candidate seems to not be too concerned about Coffs’ existence. Major tactical error in sending Morrison to Port,and reinforcing that perception.
GG
Good morning! That 7Up ad yesterday sort of stuck in my mind. Might have to take up ten pin bowling again.
HAPPY MOTHERS DAY! to everyone, and especially to those who hold the memory of Mum in their hearts. 🙂
I’m getting a new set of car seat covers and I bought myself a vintage Aussie vase and some flowers.
Was having a thunk about what 4WD i want for camping in dark places with optics..
Yeah…i’ll end up with an old Landrover…but would love something like this:
https://products.rivian.com/
So much for Michaela saving the Hilux. 🙂 Seriously, something like this, but based on the bulletproof Toyota 78 series. 🙂
Will be interesting to see if an aftermarket, long range battery pack market happens in Australia??
That said, a 4WD with a 6-800km range on the road, and a decent charger network (probably driven by charging electric trucks) would meet 99% of what people use their Toorak Tractors for.
The Sunday Fairfax (or is that the Sunday nine papers?) papers not making a call in their editorials is probably a reflection of the nine ownership.
Am sure they used to in previous elections.
Senior Tory and Labour politicians have issued frantic calls to their voters to back them in next week’s European elections after a new poll showed support for Nigel Farage’s Brexit party had soared to a level higher than for the two main parties put together.
The Opinium survey for the Observer places the Brexit party on 34%, when people were asked how they intended to vote on 23 May, with Labour slipping to 21% and the Conservatives collapsing to just 11%. Ominously for Theresa May, support for the Tories at the European elections is now less than a third of that for Farage’s party, and below that for the Liberal Democrats, who are on 12%.
Will be interesting to see if an aftermarket, long range battery pack market happens in Australia??
I predict an entrepreneurial Aussie traveller will put 2+2 together and see the $ signs for this idea.
While it’s still a tad quite in here,can I raise the subject of the two chaps who snubbed Shorten during the week.Was there any known follow up by the media to ascertain what their beef was.Was it personal or were they in some way attempting to make a protest about conditions,pay and or something else.Were they even workers at the establishment or ring ins from Tony’s tradies?
For the life of me I can’t figure out what the issue was.
Morning all. Thanks BK. The Guardian story on the absence of Melissa Price is telling. As well as not replying to them, they note Price has avoided ABC too:
“The executive producer of the ABC’s 7.30 program, Justin Stevens, tweeted this week that Price had turned down 11 requests for an interview since becoming minister.”
If she will not do the job perhaps she will donate her ministerial salary to charity? Just kidding 🙂
And yes happy mothers day to my own mum, still the kindest soul I have ever known.
To counter the Labor metro rail. The libs are all in for the East West link. $4Billion for that. All this effort just to keep Sukkar in Parliament…
Apparently it’s Shorten’s birthday today. Morrison’s is tomorrow.
‘Grime says:
Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 8:05 am
While it’s still a tad quite in here,can I raise the subject of the two chaps who snubbed Shorten during the week.Was there any known follow up by the media to ascertain what their beef was.Was it personal or were they in some way attempting to make a protest about conditions,pay and or something else.Were they even workers at the establishment or ring ins from Tony’s tradies?
For the life of me I can’t figure out what the issue was.’
Here, for the life of you, are some suggestions from the real world:
They were Liberal voting workers who want their penalty rates cut some more.
They were Liberal voting workers who prefer to have their wages stolen.
They were Liberal voting workers who are in precarious employment and they enjoy the uncertainty of not knowing from week to week whether they will be able to pay their bills.
They were Liberal voting workers who enjoy having their Super stolen by their bosses.
Holdenhillbilly @ #40 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 5:58 am
And yet the “experts” on this site delude themselves into thinking that a second referendum would produce an entirely different result to the first.
On those figures the “Leave” vote may very well increase if a second referendum is held.
Even Jean-Claude Juncker has stated that the chance of a “remain” vote in a second referendum has a 30% chance of success. In other words, a 70% chance of failure.
Despite all of that the more delusional of all the “remain” supporters on this site will continue to blame Jeremy Corbyn for the whole thing.
Around the world the status quo is not working for the vast majority of the citizenry, and any party (anywhere) that offers “steady as she goes” as its platform will be annihilated at the ballot boxes. This is a good thing for Labor in Australia as they are actively promoting the destruction of the status quo as their platform, whereas all the Libs have to offer is more of the same at best.
On the other hand it’s also a good thing for some (not all) of the RWNJ parties. One Nation has shot its bolt, Palmer may well benefit from this until any of his mob actually get into parliament where they will once again implode. The even further to the Right whackaloon parties will be the beneficiaries of these implosions.
Holdenhillbilly
The thing is there is no party for stay.
Alphazero
“To counter the Labor metro rail. The libs are all in for the East West link. $4Billion for that. All this effort just to keep Sukkar in Parliament…”
With Melbourne City Council having just committed to a major plan to reallocate roadspace away from cars to pedestrians this project makes less sense now than it did when first proposed. Where would the extra traffic go?
The Lib announcement of still pursuing EW link is not for commuters. It is for the grifters that got paid out $1.2 billion on the last deal. Come back for another bite at taxpayers, the Libs are saying.
@socrates this EW Link announcement is bizarre. No votes in it and gives Dan Andrews a platform to kick the Government over the next week.