Happy trails: episode three

The Coalition continues to profess confidence about its prospects, but Scott Morrison’s recent campaign movements suggest a campaign on the defensive.

While Coalition sources are still making semi-confident noises in their briefings to the press gallery, Scott Morrison seems to have spent most of past week-and-a-bit sandbagging second-tier seats rather than carving out a pathway to victory, while Bill Shorten has remained on the offensive. In the first three weeks of the campaign, Morrison spent roughly as much time in Labor as in Coalition-held electorates, but going back to last weekend, the only prime ministerial visit that seemed in any way targeted at a Labor-held seat was in the New South Wales Central Coast seat of Dobell last Sunday – and that might equally have been pitched at its marginal Liberal-held neighbour, Robertson.

Morrison’s efforts yesterday were devoted to the Melbourne seat of Deakin, which the Liberals believed they had nailed down in more optimistic times earlier in the campaign. Similarly, Friday brought him to Capricornia, one of a number of regional Queensland seats the Coalition was supposedly feeling relaxed about due to the Adani issue. The visit was to Rockhampton, but the announcement of a new CQUniversity mines and manufacturing school equally applied to Gladstone, located in the similarly placed neighbouring seat of Flynn.

Morrison has also spent a lot of time on seats where the Liberals are under pressure from independents. Tuesday was spent straddling the Murray, where Cathy McGowan’s support group hopes to bequeath Indi to Helen Haines on the Victorian side, and Albury mayor Kevin Mack is taking on Liberal member Sussan Ley in the New South Wales seat of Farrer. On Thursday he went to Cowper, which it is feared the Nationals will lose to Rob Oakeshott.

Most remarkably, Morrison also spent the entirety of a trip to Melbourne last Friday in Kooyong, where he made pronouncements on themes not normally considered staples of the Liberal campaign, namely recycling and protection of threatened species (insert Josh Frydenberg joke). The danger there is that the seat will lose the blue-ribbon seat to ex-Liberal independent Oliver Yates. Still more striking is the fact that Bill Shorten felt the seat worth a visit yesterday, if only to be photographed with puppies at Guide Dogs Victoria.

You can find my accounting of the leaders’ movements in spreadsheet form here.

In other news, the last Sunday newspapers of the campaign are typically the first to bring editorial endorsements, although both the Fairfax titles have squibbed it today, as has Perth’s Sunday Times. The four News Corp papers that have taken a stand have all gone as you would expect. The online headline in the Sunday Telegraph says it is “time to end the worst period of political instability and cynicism since federation” – which you should do, naturally, by returning the government. Granted that this makes more sense if you read the whole thing, though very few will of course. In Victoria, the Coalition gets the endorsement of the Sunday Herald Sun, as it did before the state election in November, for all the good it did them. The Brisbane Sunday Mail’s effort is headlined “Australians can’t afford a reckless pursuit of utopia”; the Adelaide Sunday Mail says it’s “time for a steady hand”, i.e. not Bill Shorten’s.

Also today: the latest episode of Seat du jour, tackling the Perth seat of Hasluck.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,277 comments on “Happy trails: episode three”

Comments Page 2 of 26
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  1. Pontificating Paul Kelly on Sky saying Labor’s tax plans are radical. What is radical about reining in wasteful, unsustainable spending?

  3. Happy birthday jen, and also of course Bill!

    I had to laugh when reading this about Sunderland’s 1-0 win over Portsmouth in the first leg of their League One soccer playoff last night

    Sunderland then had to dig in to defend their advantage as defender Alim Ozturk was shown a straight red card for bringing down Gareth Evans.

    Gareth gets around!

  5. Grime
    The extent of mis-information that gets around tradie pub circles is mind-blowing.
    Recently has two workers explain to me that a particular builder was going broke because of the continuing impost of having to pay superannuation to workers.
    In their case they had no idea of either, the argument was against their best interests nor that the builder had a degree of separation between himself personally and his string of former companies.
    The tradie types have been convinced that unions are against them! Go figure!
    Never underestimate the relative degrees of stupidity in the community.

  7. In Bonner, we have not seen Vasta or his team in our part of the electorate, Mansfield, Wishart, Mt Gravatt, no on the ground campaign at all. My brother lives in Manly, although there has been some street corner placard waving in Wynnum, no on the ground campaign in Wynnum or Manly.
    Corflutes are sparse on the ground.
    Vasta has put out four leaflets
    The Labor campaign has been very active, with both our area and the bayside areas door knocked at least twice in the last four weeks. Corflutes aplenty and Street corner stuff during the week and on weekends.
    We have had 7 leaflets from Labor.
    There has been no leaflets or on the ground campaigning from the Greens, PHON or UAP.
    The sheer lack of presence from Vasta has been amazing.

  9. I see the “blame Corbyn for Brexit” campaign has begun.

    Did none of you see that Farage’s Brexit Party is polling more than Labour and the Tories combined in the EU elections?

    Obviously not.

    It’s all Corbyn’s fault obviously.

  10. “frednk says:
    Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 8:23 am
    Holdenhillbilly
    The thing is there is no party for stay.”

    That is apart from the SNP, Liberal Democrats, Greens, Change UK, Plaid Cymru etc…

    W12ithout wishing to be harsh – can you see past the 2 largest parties (both of which are conflicted on this issue? Only Brexit and UKIP are major contendors who recommend a definitive leave.

  11. I forgot to add, between my wife and myself, in the last four weeks we have been polled 7 times, five for me and twice for her.
    Most of the polls related to Vasta

  12. Izzy
    Yes the EW link story is bizarre. That is why I do not think it is aimed at commuters or voters. It is aimed at business financial backers.

  14. “time to end the worst period of political instability and cynicism since federation” says the Sunday Telecrap. Didn’t read the article but I assume* that this means that Rupert has seen the light and his minions are urging us to “Kick this mob out”.

    The paper edition front page is dominated by a story about Olivia Newton John, plus ads/promotions and a modest pointer to the editorial.

    (* No, I didn’t really assume that).

  17. Kroger whining about how the Liberal party has been run out of NSW for years, and how this means Victorians feel left behind.

    Laura Jayes: You’re making a very good case for a PM coming from Victoria.

    Why does media bother with Kroger. He’s useless as a commentator.

  18. Greensborough Growler says:
    Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 7:32 am
    For anyone wondering what was in those “Budgie smugglers”.
    **********************************************************

    Just a novel way to hide the circumscision scar.

    BTW Ladbrokes out to $6.

  19. Confessions
    With Melbourne City Council about to turn half the cbd into a pedestrian zone, with no lanes for cars except deliveries, somebody should ask Kroger where the EW link traffic would go once it got to the city?

  21. Dan G. Mb a second ref would get the same result. If so why are the leavers so scared to have one? It’s because leading leavers are in essence anti democratic.

  22. Three articles have appeared on The Grauniad site since BK posted his Dawn Patrol, but are worth a read.

    From Greg Jericho:

    Having a bigger surplus should in no way be considered the aim of economic policy but if the Liberal party is going to foolishly continue saying it is, then I guess it serves them right to be found out, especially when that is the only real policy.

    It is not all that surprising that an LNP government is bereft of policy. When your overriding ethos is that a smaller government is better, you inevitably reach a point where your election campaign becomes a policy abyss.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/may/12/a-coalition-bereft-of-policy-is-staring-into-the-abyss

    From Paul Karp:

    Canstruct chief executive denies link between LNP donation and $591m Nauru contract
    Rory Murphy says attendance at Liberal National party function had ‘no bearing’ on contract decision and any suggestion it did was ‘ridiculous’

    Yeah. Nah.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/12/canstruct-chief-executive-denies-link-between-lnp-donation-and-591m-nauru-contract

    And to reinforce my earlier post about how Farage is surging ahead in polls, and the crisis that creates for both Labour and The Tories:

    Senior Tory and Labour politicians have issued frantic calls to their voters to back them in next week’s European elections after a new poll showed support for Nigel Farage’s Brexit party had soared to a level higher than for the two main parties put together.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/11/poll-surge-for-farage-panic-conservatives-and-labour

  23. Socrates:

    The journalists pointed out to Kroger that Andrews will not approve the project, that Abbott in 2014 declared the Vic election a referendum on the EW link, and Labor won. Plus that in 2018 the Liberals lost a whole lot of seats along the proposed rail line.

  24. I was in Brisbane a couple of weeks ago. What stunned me more than anything else was the TOTAL Lamming saturation in Bowman.

    You’d not think he was sitting on a 7% margin… and Vasta is next door on less than half the margin.

  26. “Nigel Farage’s Brexit party had soared to a level higher than for the two main parties put together.”

    I wonder if the EU is regretting the brexit extension? The two main parties in the UK make our lot look like….well politicians who are really good.

  27. @socrates and @confessions. If Morrison’s intention was to bake in losses in Chisholm, Higgins and put Goldstein under threat the EW Link and the hammering he will get from the VIC government is the way to go about it. I’m not all that convinced it will help in Deakin either.

  28. Mark the Graph
    ‏ @Mark_Graph

    Coalition mean win probability on prediction markets is 15.8 per cent, down from 17.2 yesterday. #auspol #AusVotes

  29. Stan Speaker @ #71 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 6:46 am

    Dan G. Mb a second ref would get the same result. If so why are the leavers so scared to have one? It’s because leading leavers are in essence anti democratic.

    I agree with that. If I was a UK citizen, I would’ve voted to Remain, however given the part of the UK I originated in, I would’ve been in a minority. Democracy throws up some funny results sometimes. You need look no further than Australia where, according to the polls slightly less than half are willing to leave the worst government in living memory in place.

  31. Thanks for all the kind birthday wishes folks – though this year I am a little more hoping that Bill’s birthday is excellent (and Morrison crashes at his grand reveal!)

    Happy Mums day to all the mums too – parents of any gender do a sterling job!

  32. Morning all

    How unsurprising that the Murdoch editorials etc have gone with the coalition.

    Who can forget the relentless pursuit by them of Julia Gillard, suggesting the benefit of cheap materials for a veranda or some such reno back in the 90s. The horror of her benefitting 5,000, 10,000 or even 20,000 via her then boyfriend etc. Which she said never occurred. They even expected her to produce bank statements from that period to support her case.

    Fast forward to now. We have Watergate. 80 million dollars wrangled from taxpayers and we are yet to know who ended up with the cash. The Murdoch journos obviously think 80,000 million dollars is meh.

  34. Socrates- EW Link was not intended to take traffic into the city but rather to take traffic cross town, especially from the eastern suburbs to the airport, by closing the link between the Eastern Freeway and the Tullla. There were no direct city exits. So the Melbourne City Council’s traffic reduction plans would not be all that relevant. I say this as a sworn opponent of the EW Link. Dog of an idea – and it’s instructive that the Liberals can’t move on from it, even though they have been beaten at 2 successive State elections where they’ve vowed to build it.

  36. “How unsurprising that the Murdoch editorials etc have gone with the coalition. ”

    Good,. They lose too come May 18.

  39. Very long queues noted at a prepoll office in High Street, Prahran yesterday.

    Apparently has been busy all week. Lots of Greens corflutes around but not so much blue or red in High and Chapel area. UAP and Sust Aus Party in attendance as well.

    PHON has a huge billboard on Eastlink and Palmer appears to have every board around the Bolte / Westgate interchange

    The feeling on the ground is that Sam Hibbins (GRN) is likely to be returned.

  40. Izzy:

    The Liberals have lost two elections now pledging the EW link. I can’t imagine why they are still wedded to it, unless Socrates is on the money and it’s about lining donor pockets with taxpayer largesse.

  41. Coalition chance of winning now down to 15.8% down from 17.2% yesterday (based on betting markets).

  42. Liberals bizarre obsession with EW Link makes no sense. The project is a dog with 45 cents return for each dollar.

    ALP is right to go with public transport funding.

  43. “EW Link. Dog of an idea – and it’s instructive that the Liberals can’t move on from it, even though they have been beaten at 2 successive State elections where they’ve vowed to build it.”

    So Shorten announces funding and cooperation with a State Govt on a big project that there is evidence is popular.

    ScoMo announces funding for a project that is not popular with punters and that the State Govt that just got elected last year has canned and wont go ahead with.

    Seriously? Campaigning FAIL.

  44. Trump’s nickname #Brokeahontas trends worldwide on Twitter after his tax returns revealed he’s a lousy businessman

    President Donald Trump earned a nickname of his own after a bombshell The New York Times report revealed he once lost more money than any other American.

    HBO “Real Time” host Bill Maher called Trump a “reverse billionaire” on Friday night and said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) should call him “Brokeahontas.”

    The president has nicknamed Warren “Pocahontas.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/05/trumps-nickname-brokeahontas-trends-worldwide-on-twitter-after-his-tax-returns-revealed-hes-a-lousy-businessman/

  46. Yeah it does make you wonder why with all the seat polling and no published results. Do the parties themselves commission these polls for internal consumption only.?
    Regardless I’m hoping we have PM Shorten this time next week.
    Keep the faith people.

  48. Insiders ABC
    ‏Verified account @InsidersABC
    24s25 seconds ago

    Both major parties in this election campaign concede Labor is still ahead, and the Coalition now has just six days to try and turn that around.
    Welcome to #Insiders.

  49. PhoenixRed

    That will piss Trump off. Too funny

    Meanwhile GOP Senator Burr who set up subpoena for Don Jnr is weird. I think this is a set up of sorts. Not sure what the strategy is here, but I dont think it was intended to help the cause.

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