While Coalition sources are still making semi-confident noises in their briefings to the press gallery, Scott Morrison seems to have spent most of past week-and-a-bit sandbagging second-tier seats rather than carving out a pathway to victory, while Bill Shorten has remained on the offensive. In the first three weeks of the campaign, Morrison spent roughly as much time in Labor as in Coalition-held electorates, but going back to last weekend, the only prime ministerial visit that seemed in any way targeted at a Labor-held seat was in the New South Wales Central Coast seat of Dobell last Sunday – and that might equally have been pitched at its marginal Liberal-held neighbour, Robertson.
Morrison’s efforts yesterday were devoted to the Melbourne seat of Deakin, which the Liberals believed they had nailed down in more optimistic times earlier in the campaign. Similarly, Friday brought him to Capricornia, one of a number of regional Queensland seats the Coalition was supposedly feeling relaxed about due to the Adani issue. The visit was to Rockhampton, but the announcement of a new CQUniversity mines and manufacturing school equally applied to Gladstone, located in the similarly placed neighbouring seat of Flynn.
Morrison has also spent a lot of time on seats where the Liberals are under pressure from independents. Tuesday was spent straddling the Murray, where Cathy McGowan’s support group hopes to bequeath Indi to Helen Haines on the Victorian side, and Albury mayor Kevin Mack is taking on Liberal member Sussan Ley in the New South Wales seat of Farrer. On Thursday he went to Cowper, which it is feared the Nationals will lose to Rob Oakeshott.
Most remarkably, Morrison also spent the entirety of a trip to Melbourne last Friday in Kooyong, where he made pronouncements on themes not normally considered staples of the Liberal campaign, namely recycling and protection of threatened species (insert Josh Frydenberg joke). The danger there is that the seat will lose the blue-ribbon seat to ex-Liberal independent Oliver Yates. Still more striking is the fact that Bill Shorten felt the seat worth a visit yesterday, if only to be photographed with puppies at Guide Dogs Victoria.
You can find my accounting of the leaders’ movements in spreadsheet form here.
In other news, the last Sunday newspapers of the campaign are typically the first to bring editorial endorsements, although both the Fairfax titles have squibbed it today, as has Perth’s Sunday Times. The four News Corp papers that have taken a stand have all gone as you would expect. The online headline in the Sunday Telegraph says it is “time to end the worst period of political instability and cynicism since federation” – which you should do, naturally, by returning the government. Granted that this makes more sense if you read the whole thing, though very few will of course. In Victoria, the Coalition gets the endorsement of the Sunday Herald Sun, as it did before the state election in November, for all the good it did them. The Brisbane Sunday Mail’s effort is headlined “Australians can’t afford a reckless pursuit of utopia”; the Adelaide Sunday Mail says it’s “time for a steady hand”, i.e. not Bill Shorten’s.
Also today: the latest episode of Seat du jour, tackling the Perth seat of Hasluck.
@Dan
What Juncker actually said was there is a 20-30% chance of brexit not happening, didn’t mention another referendum.
Sgh
Sam Hibbins is the state member for Prahan. Not a candiate for Higgins.
Malcolm Farr says today we’ll see the Morrison Party launch.
Yeah, nah. He’s supported by 1 in 3 voters. Labour and the Tories need to calm the fuck down and realise that means 2 in 3 voters don’t want what Farage is selling. Farage is the one who should be in a panic.
Haven’t you heard? It was Nath and Rex.
The more I see of Malcolm Farr on Insiders the more I wonder how he’s lasted at News Ltd.
‘It’s not the Liberal Party, it’s the Morrison Party.’ Lol.
Melissa Price will be at the launch today. The first time she’ll have been seen in the campaign.
Ross Leedham/sprocket
http://election.rossleedham.com/election-2019/postals/
Great postals database – thanks for sharing
Looking at the column of increases in applications over 2016, I notice that 6 SA seats (out of only 10 in the whole state) occupy places in the top 10 seat increases nationwide.
And ignoring Fraser/Bean (I think an artifice of new seats), the 5 biggest increases nationally are all in SA! The largest increase in Boothby….so perhaps a long wait for a result may be on the cards there?
Mal @ #101 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 7:06 am
And how is that going to happen without a second referendum? That could well turn into a civil war of sorts if the Leavers wishes are ignored.
‘The Scott Morrison One Man Show. Every Child Actor’s dream,’
Zinger from Bill Shorten to Malcolm Farr this morning.
Ven
Howard’s battlers still battling.
It’s become a generational thing passed down from fluoro to fluoro, all about to come unstuck by the rationalization of the price of housing in Australia.
The average punter can no longer go to the bank to increase the housing loan.
As Howard said recently no one likes to see house prices fall. The same man who depended on house price rises to stay in office.
Morrison and the LNP attempting to extend the life of the particularly conflated Howard/Costello mantra of everyone’s a winner.
The average battler is paying a huge price for attaching themselves firstly to the Howard/Costello hoodwink and then the inferior triumvirate of Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison.
The franking credit devotees and their ‘we worked so hard’ idiom ‘to be self-funded retirees’ yet funded by a unaffordable handout from public revenue.
Most of the better off retirees were fortunate enough to benefit from real estate excesses and a booming world economy.
All straight out of Howard’s bible of bullshit.
Morrison as shonky a backstreet conman as the now all too common parade of “and there’s more” spruikers running unchecked throughout the dodgy world of advertising.
The Liberals haven’t digested the fact that the wheels have fallen off.
Shorten is a pre-record as he’s currently doing a fun run.
The Great Rekippering of the British Empire has fallen foul of many a shoal including too many cooks spoiling the broth.
May has been the Cordon Bleu chef spoiling the Brexit broth and May must take the chief blame for failed leadership.
Corbyn has been the underchef.
Focussing on Corbyn, as is the Labor’s supporters wont, Corbyn has essentially tried to lead from behind and from several positions simultaneously.
Confessions @ #108 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 9:10 am
A rare and elusive sighting that has eluded even the great David Attenborough…
Shorten’s right on song this morning!
GG @7:32
Is that an actual picture or is it photoshopped?
yikes, Flinders and maybe even Higgins.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6118958/labor-edging-close-in-lib-seat-of-higgins/?cs=14231
A R @ #104 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 7:08 am
Yeah, nah.
Fail on your part given that both the UK and the EU are both “first past the post” systems. And yes, it also illustrates exactly how bad a system that actually is. You don’t need an absolute majority, just more than all of your opponents.
I’m totally against the EW link. But I think its proponents would argue that it would take traffic out of the city by by-passing it.
Tom:
I hope someone does a mashup showing footage of her at the launch with Attenborough’s voice over with “rare glimpse of this elusive form”.
Of course Melissa Price’s job is to keep the environment out of the way of anyone making a few bucks. Her party has no actual environment policy so her role is not the sort of thing that requires much of a public presence.
Guest Workers brought in from overseas and leading to wages being undercut as a result, is a big issue bubbling under in the community that I have been confronted with as I talk to people. Unprompted, btw.
Steve777:
I reckon Price has been ordered to stay out of the spotlight. Her media appearances prior to the election campaign were at best insipid and weak.
Into the Chum Bucket with News Corpse and their RW journos! 😆
Confessions @ #121 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 9:19 am
Yes, that’s the image that came to me when I saw your original post.
Insiders ABC
Verified account @InsidersABC
38s39 seconds ago
“My policy for the ABC is two words…
ABC everywhere.” @billshortenmp
#Insiders #auspol #AusVotes
A Happy Mothers Day to all the mums out there. Having lunch with my dear 82, soon to be 83 in June,
year old mum.
Am recording Insiders and thought I’d just have a gander over at Outsiders on Sky News. Never seen it before and probably won’t again – they are discussing the big issues (with Amanda Stoker, LN Senator Qld) :-
– ALP are now shrilling and is Shorten shouting at press conferences supposedly
– Wong lacking civility in not shaking hands with Birmingham
– bad mouthing Trump will be bad for our relations with the USA (obviously blissfully unaware that most Australians think Trump is a goose)
– border protection issue (boats will start again)
– Getup and backing Independents who say they are Lib light but aren’t etc
All the things Australians are interested in? Not. All peripheral issues and they wonder why they are not relevant anymore.
Got to have a shower and cleanse myself
@Dan 20-30% would take in the likelihood of a referendum and the chances of it passing, once a referendum was called the probability would increase substantially.
Kirky
Enjoy your luncheon with your mum!
My apologies if posted, but this from a Guardian article on neuropsychology:
“You devote a chapter to the formation of belief – how our genes, traits and experiences shape our views. Does this mean genes play a role in our political views, say whether we’re a leaver or a remainer?”
“There have definitely been studies that have looked at different brain profiles associated with ideology. People who are very conservative seem to have a much larger volume and a much more sensitive amygdala – the area of the brain that is involved in perceptions of fear. People who are more liberal seem to have a greater weighting on the region of the brain that is engaged in future planning and more collaborative partnerships. They don’t seem sensitive to immediate threats; instead, they are looking to the future. What we see in propaganda through the centuries is that if you heighten someone’s fear response using environmental manipulation, you are more likely to make them vote in a rightwing way.”
“So what does neuroscience tell us about how you might go about changing someone’s mind or winning an argument?”
“It’s very difficult. Once you have built up a perception of the world, you will ignore any information to the contrary. Your brain is already taking up about 20% of your energy, so changing the way that you think is going to be quite cognitively costly. And it might be quite socially costly too.”
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/may/11/neuroscientist-dr-hannah-critchlow-science-of-fate-interview
Shorten at his best on Insiders.
Can’t believe the public will fall for “the smoke and mirrors” which is the LNP “going forward”
Just about to head off to get my dear old mum from her nursing home and take her a park at Old Noarlunga where she thinks it’s just Mrs BK and me that will be having some fish and chips with her there. But when she arrives all her grandchildren (on the BK side) and their families will be there complete with canopy shelter tables and chairs for lunch and “high tea”.
She’ll be blown away – but not too much I hope!
Barrie just called Bill Shorten, ‘the Prime Minister’! 😯
BK @ #133 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 9:34 am
Because she’s worth it. 🙂
Have a good one, BK.
IoM
Thanks
My fail.
Insiders strangely not discussing the question of the coalition’s costings.
Enjoy your day BK.
Have a great day to all mum’s out there ! 🙂
BK
Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 9:34 am
Comment #133
Have a great day with your 😇 mum. 😇
Kirky:
Outsiders is the worst. It belongs on the After Dark slot, not first thing in the morning.
Yes BK have a great day.
Thinking of my mum who passed in 2005.
BK
Brilliant
Enjoy the day!
“Sam Hibbins is the state member for Prahan. Not a candiate for Higgins.”
***
Former AFL player Jason Ball is the Greens’ candidate for Higgins. He was also our candidate last time.
Mal @ #129 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 7:31 am
You hope.
To state one way or the other what will happen is probably not wise, given how much of a spanner the whole thing has thrown into the works.
Remember, the “likelihood” of Remaining in the first referendum was considered to be a lay down miseré.
Leonore Taylor continues to impress. Really on top of the issues. Malcolm Farr’s pretty good too, believe it or not.
Good point by Farr. These dumped candidates scrubbing their social media posts is one thing, but the real issue is they likely still hold those beliefs.
Steve777
Mothers day can be bittersweet. As it is more often than not, a day to reflect on what was, rather than what is. Such is life.
Fess
Especially if they are recent posts. If they are from years ago, not so much.
Vic
True. But life goes on and Mums abound!