While Coalition sources are still making semi-confident noises in their briefings to the press gallery, Scott Morrison seems to have spent most of past week-and-a-bit sandbagging second-tier seats rather than carving out a pathway to victory, while Bill Shorten has remained on the offensive. In the first three weeks of the campaign, Morrison spent roughly as much time in Labor as in Coalition-held electorates, but going back to last weekend, the only prime ministerial visit that seemed in any way targeted at a Labor-held seat was in the New South Wales Central Coast seat of Dobell last Sunday – and that might equally have been pitched at its marginal Liberal-held neighbour, Robertson.
Morrison’s efforts yesterday were devoted to the Melbourne seat of Deakin, which the Liberals believed they had nailed down in more optimistic times earlier in the campaign. Similarly, Friday brought him to Capricornia, one of a number of regional Queensland seats the Coalition was supposedly feeling relaxed about due to the Adani issue. The visit was to Rockhampton, but the announcement of a new CQUniversity mines and manufacturing school equally applied to Gladstone, located in the similarly placed neighbouring seat of Flynn.
Morrison has also spent a lot of time on seats where the Liberals are under pressure from independents. Tuesday was spent straddling the Murray, where Cathy McGowan’s support group hopes to bequeath Indi to Helen Haines on the Victorian side, and Albury mayor Kevin Mack is taking on Liberal member Sussan Ley in the New South Wales seat of Farrer. On Thursday he went to Cowper, which it is feared the Nationals will lose to Rob Oakeshott.
Most remarkably, Morrison also spent the entirety of a trip to Melbourne last Friday in Kooyong, where he made pronouncements on themes not normally considered staples of the Liberal campaign, namely recycling and protection of threatened species (insert Josh Frydenberg joke). The danger there is that the seat will lose the blue-ribbon seat to ex-Liberal independent Oliver Yates. Still more striking is the fact that Bill Shorten felt the seat worth a visit yesterday, if only to be photographed with puppies at Guide Dogs Victoria.
You can find my accounting of the leaders’ movements in spreadsheet form here.
In other news, the last Sunday newspapers of the campaign are typically the first to bring editorial endorsements, although both the Fairfax titles have squibbed it today, as has Perth’s Sunday Times. The four News Corp papers that have taken a stand have all gone as you would expect. The online headline in the Sunday Telegraph says it is “time to end the worst period of political instability and cynicism since federation” – which you should do, naturally, by returning the government. Granted that this makes more sense if you read the whole thing, though very few will of course. In Victoria, the Coalition gets the endorsement of the Sunday Herald Sun, as it did before the state election in November, for all the good it did them. The Brisbane Sunday Mail’s effort is headlined “Australians can’t afford a reckless pursuit of utopia”; the Adelaide Sunday Mail says it’s “time for a steady hand”, i.e. not Bill Shorten’s.
Also today: the latest episode of Seat du jour, tackling the Perth seat of Hasluck.
The point of WTC is that it is meant to be a small and simple gesture that shows recognition and respect.
I really don’t understand of all the hills to die on, people choose this one.
Gippslander,
That some people consider it meaningless probably says more about those people.
Why is the past so difficult to acknowledge?
Why is it so difficult to show respect?
“Coalition Of Chaos”!
I like it.
It does not matter how much the government subsidises first home buyers. Under a Morrison governmentbthey will still have to compete with investors. All it means is first home buyers will have bigger and bigger mortgages and it will be a ticking time bomb for when home interest rates rise.
How much risk will the government have to carry ?
Bill has ’em whistling and stamping their feet.
What are the odds of another WOW! around 7.30 tonight from PVO? And the odds of it being a real wow?
Bill on message and fire on ABC 24. Need to seek out Morrison launch to compare.
“From memory the first and second Howard Costello first home owners grant just saw a rise in first home prices .”
From memory, when I bought my first home during the “last” Gorton Govt. It was about 4-5% of the house price , which was 3 times my salary as a clerk.
This policy would INCREASE house prices, therefore benefitting existing property investors – building equity and THE CYCLE CONTINUES
According to ScoMo everyone should pay more for houses, except First Home Buyers.
Well said Bill – calls the Murdoch press for what it is.
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has warned that parts of Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp Australia should declare themselves as “political parties” if they continued to campaign against Labor ahead of the May 18 election.
Mr Shorten played down the prospect of “retribution” against the company after a controversial story about his mother last Wednesday but he said the report was a sign of the trouble facing the traditional media.
The Labor leader has teared up, talking about his love for his mother, after he was accused in a newspaper article of using her for political purposes.
Speaking on the ABC’s Insiders program on Sunday morning, he also urged Australians to reject the minor parties in the Senate and give Labor their support in the upper house to ensure the passage of his sweeping tax agenda.
Asked about whether he would act against News Corp if he took power at the election, Mr Shorten said The Daily Telegraph’s report about his mother last Wednesday showed that it and other News Corp outlets were “campaigning against Labor” ahead of the election.
“If some editors want to be political parties, they should just come out and say it,” he said.
“Beyond that, though, any vote they can take off Labor they took off three or four electoral cycles ago.”
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/bill-shorten-warns-news-corp-against-acting-like-a-political-party-20190512-p51mgf.html
Re the first home buyers brain fart: Libs internal polling on young people must be truly dire….. & such a lib response:
Problem: Under 40s hate us for our lack of any discernible positive plans for the future….
Solution: A big barrel o’ uncosted pork!
Get in kids and sell out now! Learn from your elders and stick your hand out. Never too soon to learn that under the libs, if you have ago (at whining) you get a go (at the public trough)!
Welcome to country can only be performed by an Aboriginal person from that particular area, and in traditional times was an important part of welcoming a tribe to another tribe’s land.
In my experience, Aboriginal people still want to see this happen as it is an important cultural gesture for them, and if it makes Aboriginal people feel they are included and still connected to their culture, what is the harm? Personally I think it’s a powerful statement to see an Aboriginal elder welcoming visitors to his/her country, and I find myself looking askance at events that don’t have one in the run sheet, esp when there are visitors from interstate or from other parts of the state. The Liberal launch is one such event where people from around the country attended, and so the appropriate thing to do is have a welcome from a local Aboriginal elder.
Acknowledgement of county is where someone who is either non Aboriginal or an Aboriginal person not from the particular area simply acknowledges the traditional owners. I see this happen more often at small gatherings or workshops and other meetings. Again, it is a simple statement of acknowledgement and respect, so what is the harm?
zoomster @ #493 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 1:25 pm
Van Badham in some tweets I saw, also says Convention Centre. The photo I had seen made it look like Alexander Theatre but now I can see others it isn’t
Obviously perfectly acceptable to the NRA, Lejonhelm and One Nation.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-12/astounding-arsenal-of-guns-seized-from-la-mansion/11104990
Heard the report of the “Liberal” launch on the ABC News (lead item). Morrison criticised Labor and promised to build the East West Link.
Protect life and support peace, if you care about life and peace do not vote for anyone who supports Australia having armed forces or legalised abortion.
Support helping those in need, if you care about helping those in need do not vote for anyone who supports treating refugees badly by jailing them overseas.
nath@12:21pm
“I can’t watch it anymore. He is listing freeways”
What is wrong with that?
It is the Melbourne convention centre. My daughter had her graduation ceremony there.
Did anybody for moment Morrison gave a long speech without substance or theme because Shorten gave one at ALP launch?
Fess,
I agree that WTC is powerful, but it’s quite a recent innovation .
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welcome_to_Country
Al Pal @ #505 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 1:39 pm
You’ve reminded me. Thanks. Update follows…
PB-Guess: Newspoll
Median: ALP 52.0 to 48.0 LNP
Mode: ALP 52.0 to 48.0 LNP
Mean: ALP 52.0 to 48.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 60
ALP / LNP
53 / 47 a r *until the election
54 / 46 Al Pal
52 / 48 alpine blizzard
52 / 48 Andrew_Earlwood *all polls
52 / 48 Arky
53 / 47 ausdavo
53 / 47 autocrat *for the duration
54 / 46 bilko
52 / 48 BK
53 / 47 booleanbach
52 / 48 Burgey
50 / 50 Confessions
53 / 47 Dan Gulberry *permanent
52 / 48 Davidwh
50 / 50 Douglas and Milko
51 / 49 Dr Fumbles McStupid
52 / 48 EB
52 / 48 Fozzie Logic *until May 17
53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
52 / 48 Gecko
42 / 58 Generic Person
52 / 48 Chinda63
53 / 47 Goll *until the election
52 / 48 Harry “Snapper” Organs
52 / 48 Henry
53 / 47 imacca
52 / 48 It’s Time
53 / 47 ItzaDream
53 / 47 Jimbocool
57 / 43 KayJay *all next polls
52 / 48 Lachlan
52 / 48 Late Riser
50 / 50 Lincoln
51 / 49 ltep
50 / 50 Lukey
52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
52 / 48 Matt31
51 / 49 max
50 / 50 Mundo
50 / 50 nath
53 / 47 Onebobsworth
52 / 48 Outsider
53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
55 / 45 Question *until the election
52 / 48 Red13
52 / 48 rhwombat
53 / 47 Scott
50 / 50 SilentMajority *I want a prize this time…
50 / 50 Simon² Katich® *eternal
52 / 48 Socrates
52 / 48 Sohar
53 / 47 sonar *permanent
51 / 49 Steve777 *any other poll before Monday
54 / 46 Tom
53 / 47 Tricot *any polls
52 / 48 Upnorth
52 / 48 Voice endeavour
52 / 48 Whisper
52 / 48 Yabba
According to the 7 day forecast for Marvellous Melbourne, the heart of progressivism in 21st century Australia, we’re looking at a mild 18 degrees for Election Day – pretty good for the winter end of autumn. Hopefully progressive voters will vote early and vote often. For any others out there, it’s really not worth it. May as well stay home.
Indigenous Australians had their land stolen from them, had their dignity stolen from them, had their children stolen from them and finally had their statement from the heart stolen from them.
The least we could do is acknowledge they exist by ‘allowing’ a welcome to country.
lsughtong@1:46pm
ABC reported that it was at Melbourne Covention Centre
Edi_Mahin says:
Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 1:48 pm
WOW!
You’re going to have more trouble than Rex voting if they’re your benchmarks! 🙂
The one real thing Malcolm Farr said this morning was that although so many LNP candidates have been dis-endorsed for (among other things) xenophobia & homophobia; they are still on the ballot and they still believe in all those things they wrote or uttered.
What does that say about the ‘modern’ liberal party?
Barney
“Why is the past so difficult to acknowledge?
Why is it so difficult to show respect?”
Reciting a mumbo jumbo of words in a room full of white fellers is showing respect to nobody!!
If I said it sincerely to a Kauri, it might be showing respect, but it also might provoke him to throwing a punch at me. It isn’t ‘easy’ showing respect to people who have been systematically robbed of respect for generations.
Being of Irish descent, my blood still boils when I read statements about the “lack of gratitude ” shown by the Irish to the English! I can’t begin to imagine the feelings of a Kauri, sitting hopelessly on a park bench, if I were to come up to him and said that I acknowledged his hereditary right to the land we’ve stolen from him, and are still occupying!
Re election tipping:
Labor to win, 76 seats.
Coalition to lose, 70 seats.
Specific seats: NSW – Coalition loses Gilmore, Robertson & Banks, regains Wentworth from IND, gains Lindsay from ALP. VIC – Coalition loses Corangamite, Dunkley & Chisholm, regains Indi from IND, Labor gains new seat (Fraser). QLD – Coalition loses Flynn, Forde and Petrie, gains Herbert and Longman from ALP. WA – Coalition loses Pearce. SA – no change. Tas – Coalition gains Lyons & Braddon. Territories – no change (Labor gains new ACT seat).
For Senate – Labor to pick up 3 seats (NSW, VIC, SA); Coalition to pick up 1 (gain 1 in NSW & WA, lose 1 in SA); Greens to break even; ON to lose 2 seats (WA, NSW); LibDems out; Hinch out.
And I wish to G-d that Bowen would stop promising higher surpluses than the Coalition’s (already overly-rosy) projected surpluses! Not only are those Coalition “surpluses” already confected from airy hopes and aspirational petals, but it may not be a good time to run a surplus over the next few years – not with the global economy showing structural weaknesses. Australia may not be able to run a surplus at all – not without risking a mini-Depression. And every time Bowen says that he’ll deliver a bigger surplus, he gives the media more ammunition to use against Labor in Government!
Incidentally:
I initially posted this in the previous thread, not noticing WB’s “new thread” notice. But I was struck by @Nostradamus’ mean-spirited attempt to belittle Shorten as being “fake” because 2 of his 3 kids are Chloe’s from her first marriage. Accordingly:
Bill Shorten may not have contributed those kids’ genetic material, but he’s still their father in every way that counts – he’s the one they look up to, he’s the one who attends Parent/Teacher meetings with Chloe, he’s the one who helps organize their birthday parties and makes the silly dad-jokes and so on and so forth. After everything else that’s been used as attack fodder against Shorten – including his own mother’s life and death – attacking him through his kids is a new low, even for the Coalition.
Accordingly – you, “Nostradamus”, are the scum of the earth. Kindly take a long walk off a short pier.
That is all.
My favourite ‘Welcome to country’ was performed by an Aunty in Wollongong a few years ago at the JG book launch and speech. Her voice broke a couple of times and she cried a little, spoke beautifully, and then explained at the end that it was due to her love and respect for JG that had made her emotional.
One human killing another human is never justifiable, STOP KILLING NOW.
Guns are manufactured to be efficient killing machines. There should be no guns in Australia, support life and ban all guns from Australia.
I’ll put in for Newspoll…………………..51 Labor, 49 Coalition
Prediction for a sleeper seat next Saturday night – Menzies, mostly because Kevin Andrews has been there far too long, so an “it’s time” factor, and also there were big swings against the Liberals in the corresponding state seats in November.
Sportsbet odds for Menzies:
Coalition 1.35, Labor 2.85
Barney, why would I vote for any of the death loving politicians who are standing at this election. Is there one of them that is really pro-life?
Evan
Even with redistribution,menzies is on a 7.8 percent margin.
Anything is possible, but not seeing it at this point
Regarding Matt’s advice to Nostradamus, bet you didn’t see that coming!
bakunin:
Welcomes to country have been part of Aboriginal culture for time immemorial as protocol for welcoming visitors to their land.
https://www.reconciliation.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Welcome-to-and-Acknowledgement-of-Country.pdf
What you’re referencing is the modern day adaptation of those traditional protocols.
On WTC, an organisation that I belong to recently decided to include it for public events. MPs (from both sides of politics) and local councillors who spoke at our public events invariably did the WTC, and our committee felt that it had got to a point where WTC has become a protocol, and failure to do it could convey lack of awareness or sympathy with the interests of indigenous Australians. It was quite easy, using the resources of our local council, to find the correct form of words and the name of the local indigenous people whose lands we occupy. We do have a small number of indigenous people connected with our organisation and several other people who have strong connections into the indigenous community, and so we were also pleased that including WTC communicated a message of solidarity with those people.
In the large corporation that I currently work for, our executive manager – who is a younger woman having very positive values based on my experience – has also been known to open staff meetings with WTC.
Is the East-West Link Victoria’s Adani? Both projects remind me of the Simpsons episode where a spiv arrives in Springfield promoting a monorail.
Another LNP candidate in trouble. This time in Greenway. Apparently used to be a CDP candidate but of course does not hold their views any more…from Amy’s Guardian blog.
Menzies – agree that it could be a bit of a sleeper, with Labor running a serious campaign for the first time in living memory (often in these parts they struggle just to find a candidate). Offset against that, in the (substantial) part of the electorate on the north side of the Yarra that’s been moved into Menzies in the redistribution, they’ll be losing Jenny Macklin’s considerable personal vote.
Sometimes there are huge swings that turn over large margins even if the overall swing is much smaller. The quality of candidates can have a big impact. I certainly would not rule out a larger margin Liberal seat falling while some much smaller margin seats do not fall to Labor. Perhaps Menzies will be such a seat.
@Late Riser
52/48 for me for polls and final outcome
Late Riser
I love the mean/median/mode overlap – does this mean it is approaching a “normal distribution” or does it reflect pollbludgers’ “herding”?
I can’t bear putting in predictions – I would just love tomorrow’s headlines to reflect a worsening Newspoll rather than being about the launch of the Morrison Party.
And I note some editorial referred to on news.com.au – I think a Murdoch paper – saying that Australia needed to end the political chaos and instability by re-electing those who have been the authors of the last six years of chaos and instability. An interesting solution!
Gippslander
If you said it to a Kauri you’d be talking to a bloody tree
If we are doing bids on sleeper seats, look out for Aston: Big 7.5% swing needed but the equivalent state seat (Bayswater) swung 5.1% and was lost to the libs.
And the local member is Tudge, who is a right winger of the Sukkar variety (biggest achievement: using confidential DSS materials to smear a whistleblower). Labor is running a massively well credentialed candidate who also has a south Asian (Sri Lankan) background: there has been a fair bit of Indian/sub-continental migration into the area, so smart pick there. Could be a smokey on the night.
Perhaps we should all nominate a sleeper seat to watch or pick an unexpected result on Saturday in an individual seat that the media so far have ignored.
Living in Sydney, I’d love Bennelong to be a shock Labor gain, because Brian Owler is a quality candidate with great credentials, but I suspect John Alexander will win comfortably again(mainly because he has the Asian vote sewn up in places like Eastwood and Ryde)
Another one!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/may/12/federal-campaign-2019-liberals-officially-launch-campaign-politics-live
Ryan is also a possibility of a sleeper seat. Outing a popular local member and a seat with a strong greens vote and campaign could inflate the swing against the libs in a small l liberal seat.
Re war and peace, if America were to start or buy into a war and ask for support, Morrison would commit Australian troops N seconds later, where N is the distance from Washington to Canberra divided by the speed of light. Shorten and Labor will at least think about it first and may decide not to. Labor would not have taken us into Iraq II.
East-West Link has been resoundingly rejected by Victorian voters at two state elections. It’s not a vote winner in anyone’s estimation.
No idea why the Libs continue to trot it out, except that they really don’t have anything else to offer.