While Coalition sources are still making semi-confident noises in their briefings to the press gallery, Scott Morrison seems to have spent most of past week-and-a-bit sandbagging second-tier seats rather than carving out a pathway to victory, while Bill Shorten has remained on the offensive. In the first three weeks of the campaign, Morrison spent roughly as much time in Labor as in Coalition-held electorates, but going back to last weekend, the only prime ministerial visit that seemed in any way targeted at a Labor-held seat was in the New South Wales Central Coast seat of Dobell last Sunday – and that might equally have been pitched at its marginal Liberal-held neighbour, Robertson.
Morrison’s efforts yesterday were devoted to the Melbourne seat of Deakin, which the Liberals believed they had nailed down in more optimistic times earlier in the campaign. Similarly, Friday brought him to Capricornia, one of a number of regional Queensland seats the Coalition was supposedly feeling relaxed about due to the Adani issue. The visit was to Rockhampton, but the announcement of a new CQUniversity mines and manufacturing school equally applied to Gladstone, located in the similarly placed neighbouring seat of Flynn.
Morrison has also spent a lot of time on seats where the Liberals are under pressure from independents. Tuesday was spent straddling the Murray, where Cathy McGowan’s support group hopes to bequeath Indi to Helen Haines on the Victorian side, and Albury mayor Kevin Mack is taking on Liberal member Sussan Ley in the New South Wales seat of Farrer. On Thursday he went to Cowper, which it is feared the Nationals will lose to Rob Oakeshott.
Most remarkably, Morrison also spent the entirety of a trip to Melbourne last Friday in Kooyong, where he made pronouncements on themes not normally considered staples of the Liberal campaign, namely recycling and protection of threatened species (insert Josh Frydenberg joke). The danger there is that the seat will lose the blue-ribbon seat to ex-Liberal independent Oliver Yates. Still more striking is the fact that Bill Shorten felt the seat worth a visit yesterday, if only to be photographed with puppies at Guide Dogs Victoria.
You can find my accounting of the leaders’ movements in spreadsheet form here.
In other news, the last Sunday newspapers of the campaign are typically the first to bring editorial endorsements, although both the Fairfax titles have squibbed it today, as has Perth’s Sunday Times. The four News Corp papers that have taken a stand have all gone as you would expect. The online headline in the Sunday Telegraph says it is “time to end the worst period of political instability and cynicism since federation” – which you should do, naturally, by returning the government. Granted that this makes more sense if you read the whole thing, though very few will of course. In Victoria, the Coalition gets the endorsement of the Sunday Herald Sun, as it did before the state election in November, for all the good it did them. The Brisbane Sunday Mail’s effort is headlined “Australians can’t afford a reckless pursuit of utopia”; the Adelaide Sunday Mail says it’s “time for a steady hand”, i.e. not Bill Shorten’s.
Also today: the latest episode of Seat du jour, tackling the Perth seat of Hasluck.
If East West Link was still a factor in Victoria, Dan Andrews wouldn’t have won a 2nd term resoundingly as Premier, Morrison’s flogging a dead horse with that one
PuffyTMD says:
Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 12:51 pm
Kroger comparing parts of the Morrison’s speech to President Kennedy’s!
——————————–
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQ5CIkSlUFI
For whatever this is worth…
what’s the betting for polls tonight and tomorrow? I’ll opt for 52/48 or 53/47,
as for th actual election – I’m thinking LNP will have net loss of 12-15 seats, with indies taking 2-3 new seats, but possible a few indies losing their seats to them too. The TPP will be >52/48 but with the big swings happening in safer seats and labor not doing well in queensland outside of brisbane otr tassie. The swing in victoria against LNP will be huge, and the greens will do better than expected in Vic.
the main issue is going to be the senate – which I hope will have enough centralists for Labor, with the Greens, to implement most of their reforms.
what will the murdoch papers throw at shorten this week?
Bulldust
“Gippslander
If you said it to a Kauri you’d be talking to a bloody tree ”
Thanks for pointing out my ignorance. Could you go one step further and tell me a correct term that I could politely use to refer to my indigenous fellow Australians?
Happy Mother’s Day peeps.
My take is that Labor will carry the day comfortably. The only factor preventing a landslide of magnitude will be hip pocket greed due to imputation changes, and of course, those idiot Queenslanders.
If Newspoll tightens after THIS past week we’ll know it’s bullshit.
Welcome to country can only be performed by a one of the traditional owners of the location where it is to be performed. An acknowledgment of country is a modern concept used by those of us who meet in country traditionally owned by others. It is a form of recognition and respect of the traditional owners.
Gippslander: Koori or sometimes Murri, I think it depends on region…
Anyone with half a brain knows that the feds can’t promise to build a road if the state concerned won’t let them. How many elections in a row are the Victorian Liberals planning to sacrifice themselves on the altar of East-West Link?
Heard from a few quarters – all usually liberal voters – that Oliver Yates is very impressive. He needs a combination of getting into third place – ahead of Greens or ALP – and Frydenburgs primary vote going down into the low 40s to be able to win. If he ends up in 4th place, a lot of his votes could spill back to the Libs.
Confessions
I predict the finishing order for Kooyong on primaries will be –
Frydenberg (Lib), Stewart (ALP), Burnside (Grn), Yates (Ind)
It is conceivable that Yates’ voters (I don’t think he has advocated any preferences) could push Burnside ahead of Labor – who knows? I note there are four other candidates – UAP in top spot, two more independents and Animal Justice Party. If there was a very widespread “Liberal low down” vote among the other seven candidates it could jeopardise the Liberals.
I think Frydenberg would have to fall below 43% primary to not be safe – but the Liberals are apparently spending one million dollars in the Kooyong campaign so they must be worried.
I think Gladys Liu in the neighbouring marginal Liberal seat of Chisholm (2.9%) must be really angry at the Liberal Party for starving her of funds relative to Frydenberg who is sitting on a 12.8% margin! It does seem that the Liberals have all but abandoned her.
The Liberal Launch highlighted what has become of the Liberal party. A hollowed out organization with the religious right and Palmer fighting over what remains.
No longer remotely capable of forming a competent government.
People voting for them because of inertia.
“Gippslander: Koori or sometimes Murri, I think it depends on region…”
Noongar if you’re in the South West of the country.
I don’t believe there is a single term that can be used across Australia, but I could well be wrong.
Methinks that ScoMo’s first home buyer policy is the equivalent of Julia Gillards ‘cash for clunkers’ – just bad policy and desperate.
Mallee for my sleeper.
Jason Modica independent to win by a whisker.
Obviously the Conservatives have not heard of sub prime debt
Then again they were in Opposition when the fall out arrived courtesy of short selling
The simple story is that everyone in rich enough to do something
And you do not under achieve – but equally you do not over extend
This mob are advertising over extending – and it will end in tears
The banks have toughened home lending criteria to requiring a 30% deposit
It was traditionally lending to 80% Loan to Valuation Ratio (Bank Valuation not purchase price) and 90% if you took out (expensive) Mortgage Insurance (subject to servicing ability)
So where does a 5% deposit sit?
Sub prime lending
On the back of a period of irresponsible lending by our banks
I think Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander is acceptable.
“Methinks that ScoMo’s first home buyer policy is the equivalent of Julia Gillards ‘cash for clunkers’ – just bad policy and desperate.”
but the reportage will be different – it wil be hailed as Great Thing by sections of the MSM
In terms of desperation, Nothing will beat Kevin Rudds plan to move the navy to Queensland that he just thought bubbled during the middle of the campaign.
The ALP / Greens / Yates combo in Kooyong is the converse of the Libs/ Nats/ Schultz situation in Gilmore – more chances to leak preferences on the way through. I would not be surprised if Labor are running seriously dead in Kooyong.
Thanks, NE Qld. I was tossing up between Koori and the word I used. I guessed wrong.
When I was very young I saw an Office of ‘The Australian Natives’ Association’. I asked my Father if this was a group devoted to the interests of Aboriginals. He roared laughing, and it was a group of First generation squatters, opposed to transportation on the grounds that too many Irish ‘troublemakers’ were coming in!
I now realise that many of them were promoting the extermination, if not of Kooris, at least of Koori culture, because it stood in the way of sheep.
LR – a relative newbie here.
Please put me down for 52:48 for Newspoll and ER.
53.2 on election night pared back to 52.9 at end of counting (yes I know post war record high for ALP)
Climate change and tax loop holes have been massive winners for the ALP and thats all we are talking about. Beautifully played labour campaign strategists.
Perhaps New England could be a sleeper, dear dog make it so.
Edi_Mahin says:
Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 2:02 pm
That all depends on how you define pro-life?
Anti-abortion, even if the result is the mother’s death or long term health?
No armies, even though they can be invaluable in helping to save lives during emergencies?
No guns, a gun is a tool, and like most tools have beneficial uses. Certainly restrict their presence outside those who need them, but an outright ban is dumb.
Also, if you’re worried about things that could be used to take lives, what about knives, rope, that rock by the side of the road, that car driving past, etc
Why stop at guns, those other things are much more accessible?
Anyway, that’s far enough into the rabbit hole.
If the East/West Link was a factor Andrews would never have been elected in the first instance
Or in a landslide last November
Andrews was elected in 2014 on tearing up the Contract (then there were the unknown side letters and we continue to see why the Libs executed them unknown to the Public Service)
https://www.commonground.org.au/learn/aboriginal-or-indigenous
Good summary of appropriate terms
Rocket Rocket:
Yes, the Libs are throwing everything at keeping Kooyong. Josh is one of the rare frontbenchers Morrison has allowed out in public.
boatswain1025 @ #547 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 2:13 pm
My electorate. That would be worth a cheer. I believe a PBer has promised a streak down his street should this eventuate. I expect it will be a cold night, but worth it. 😀
Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #574 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 2:40 pm
Well done Barney for keeping humour to the fore.
Interesting situation in Mallee where you have three independents with bases in different parts of the electorate and preferencing each other (typically a problem for an independent in a big rural seat is that it’s hard to get a profile outside your home base). Would still expect a bit of leakage along the way so the combined Nat/Lib vote probably needs to drop to the low 40s for them to be under serious threat. The Liberals seem to be making only a token effort with a candidate from well outside the electorate, which surprises me a bit as the Liberal-National contest has been close the last two times it’s been an open seat.
any one else notice a major difference between the Liberal launch and the Labor launch last Sunday (and the Marybinong launch today was that
Scott Morrison was on the stage by himself
At the ALP launch last week the Labor members were on stage behind the podium
At the Marybinong launch today the women Labor members and candidates were behind the curtain with Bill as he was introduced
Blackburnpseph
I was wondering about that – because I am sure very few Labor voters will have Frydenberg ahead of Burnside or Yates, so Frydenberg could be more in danger if Labor are third when it gets down to three if it goes to preferences. Who knows – but apparently normally Frydenberg raises lots of money in his electorate but much of it is used elsewhere. I have heard that this time it has all been ‘hoarded’ for his own race in Kooyong so whether this is due to internal Liberal polling, or just the hierarchy trying to make sure he is there no matter what if they lose so he can become leader after the election or after a short Morrison continuo stint I have no idea. It just seems a very poor use of limited resources.
And it gives Gladys Liu in Chisholm something else to be angry about.
Firefox says:
Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 9:43 am
“Sam Hibbins is the state member for Prahan. Not a candiate for Higgins.”
***
Former AFL player Jason Ball is the Greens’ candidate for Higgins. He was also our candidate last time.
*****************************
Well he play Aussie Rules but at District level not AFL/VFL level.
Still. I know Jay and he’s a good bloke – I wish him well.
frednk @ #562 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 2:30 pm
And greed. They always back the horse called Self Interest.
NE Qld @ #565 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 2:34 pm
Actually, you need to be careful with that one. If you call an aboriginal a Torres Strait Islander or vice versa, some can get quite upset. Indigenous is safer, but if talking to them and not about them, Koori and Murri are good. Even better if you know what mob they are.
Barney, comparing guns to rocks, just because something can be used as a weapon does not mean it is designed to be a weapon. Guns are a tool designed to kill, that would apply to some knives as well and they should be banned as well.
“Former AFL player Jason Ball is the Greens’ candidate for Higgins. He was also our candidate last time.
*****************************
Well he play Aussie Rules but at District level not AFL/VFL level.”
Guess this will be front page on the DT tomorrow – Greens lie about candidates football career.
😉
Blobbit @ #587 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 2:50 pm
And if he is with a woman with children from a previous relationship, Rupert’s ratbags will really pile in…
@Gippslander
They were pointing out that “Koori” is a term for indigenous Australians (mainly in the SE of the continent – other areas prefer terms such as Murri, Noongar, Palawa etc), whereas a “Kauri” is a kind of tree, in the Agathis genus:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agathis
Gippslander
I also remember seeing things I think at one of my grandmothers’ houses referring to the “Australian Natives’ Association” and it took me a long time to work out that it referred to whites (in fact white males) BORN in Australia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Natives%27_Association
I note that it has eventually morphed into Australian Unity, a private health insurer.
Breaking News
Our great LNP are leading in the lastest Ipsos poll 52/48 percent and are heading for a big majority next Saturday and Scott Morrison will be PM for three years
Bill Shorten will have to resign as opposition leader as he will lose the election on Saturday
Yeah, calling Jason Ball an AFL player is dishonest and misleading and should not be allowed. AFL = Australian Football League. This Jason Ball did not play in that League although there was a true AFL player called Jason Ball. I hope Jason Ball is not elected to parliament, we do not need this type of person in parliament.
Tom says:
Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 2:52 pm
Blobbit @ #587 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 2:50 pm
“Former AFL player Jason Ball is the Greens’ candidate for Higgins. He was also our candidate last time.
*****************************
Well he play Aussie Rules but at District level not AFL/VFL level.”
Guess this will be front page on the DT tomorrow – Greens lie about candidates football career.
And if he is with a woman with children from a previous relationship, Rupert’s ratbags will really pile in…
*********************
Hardly, he is heavily into the promotion of inclusion in sport, is openly gay and has done a huge amount of work with the AFL on improving the attitude of LBGT etc in football.
Was in New England for most of the week before last
Did not detect any seismic shifts
But I have been dreadfully wrong before
Saw plenty of Beetrooter ads
Not much else
Gippslander at 2.21 pm.
“Indigenous fellow Australians” would be a good starting point, I would have thought.
Put me down as a 52/48 for the next Newspoll (Labor leading obviously)
This looks a really crucial one, Labor seem to have all the momentum but I want proof beyond my own gut feelings.
@Tom
It isn’t likely that Jason Ball would be with any woman, with or without previous children – he is a very high profile member of the LGBT community and doesn’t swing that way 😉
I don’t think I’ve ever read a profile of him that didn’t mention something like “first gay AFL footballer” or words to that effect somewhere. He played club footy up at Yarra Glen. He’s a nice bloke and quite a good speaker, I’ve seen him give talks to schoolkids on inclusion in sport and stuff.
Torchbearer (previous thread):
A good distinction, so it should be:
– L-type corporation: shareholders have liability by shares but no imputation (since they should in it for growth not income), or
– U-type corporation: share holder have imputation but unlimited liability
– Grouping: no imputation for any member of the group unless every member of the group is U-type
– Changes of type: restricted to once every five years or something, integrated with grouping rules
– Financial corporations: automatically U-type!!!!! (our resident ex-banker can stick that in his pipe an smoke it – but private banks with unlimited liability fail less often than limited liability financial corporations)
– Consider introducing an I-type corporation with intermediate liability (defined somehow, perhaps for ALL debts excluding notes convertible to shares) and 50% imputation
I’ve seen some silly arguments here before, but the war over Welcome To Country is the silliest.
I guess that makes me a racist.