While Coalition sources are still making semi-confident noises in their briefings to the press gallery, Scott Morrison seems to have spent most of past week-and-a-bit sandbagging second-tier seats rather than carving out a pathway to victory, while Bill Shorten has remained on the offensive. In the first three weeks of the campaign, Morrison spent roughly as much time in Labor as in Coalition-held electorates, but going back to last weekend, the only prime ministerial visit that seemed in any way targeted at a Labor-held seat was in the New South Wales Central Coast seat of Dobell last Sunday – and that might equally have been pitched at its marginal Liberal-held neighbour, Robertson.
Morrison’s efforts yesterday were devoted to the Melbourne seat of Deakin, which the Liberals believed they had nailed down in more optimistic times earlier in the campaign. Similarly, Friday brought him to Capricornia, one of a number of regional Queensland seats the Coalition was supposedly feeling relaxed about due to the Adani issue. The visit was to Rockhampton, but the announcement of a new CQUniversity mines and manufacturing school equally applied to Gladstone, located in the similarly placed neighbouring seat of Flynn.
Morrison has also spent a lot of time on seats where the Liberals are under pressure from independents. Tuesday was spent straddling the Murray, where Cathy McGowan’s support group hopes to bequeath Indi to Helen Haines on the Victorian side, and Albury mayor Kevin Mack is taking on Liberal member Sussan Ley in the New South Wales seat of Farrer. On Thursday he went to Cowper, which it is feared the Nationals will lose to Rob Oakeshott.
Most remarkably, Morrison also spent the entirety of a trip to Melbourne last Friday in Kooyong, where he made pronouncements on themes not normally considered staples of the Liberal campaign, namely recycling and protection of threatened species (insert Josh Frydenberg joke). The danger there is that the seat will lose the blue-ribbon seat to ex-Liberal independent Oliver Yates. Still more striking is the fact that Bill Shorten felt the seat worth a visit yesterday, if only to be photographed with puppies at Guide Dogs Victoria.
You can find my accounting of the leaders’ movements in spreadsheet form here.
In other news, the last Sunday newspapers of the campaign are typically the first to bring editorial endorsements, although both the Fairfax titles have squibbed it today, as has Perth’s Sunday Times. The four News Corp papers that have taken a stand have all gone as you would expect. The online headline in the Sunday Telegraph says it is “time to end the worst period of political instability and cynicism since federation” – which you should do, naturally, by returning the government. Granted that this makes more sense if you read the whole thing, though very few will of course. In Victoria, the Coalition gets the endorsement of the Sunday Herald Sun, as it did before the state election in November, for all the good it did them. The Brisbane Sunday Mail’s effort is headlined “Australians can’t afford a reckless pursuit of utopia”; the Adelaide Sunday Mail says it’s “time for a steady hand”, i.e. not Bill Shorten’s.
Also today: the latest episode of Seat du jour, tackling the Perth seat of Hasluck.
Welcome back Lizzie! 🙂
The place isn’t the same without you.
You have been missed.
Glad to hear you’re well and ready for the final week.
“Some years ago the various codes of football in Australia struck a naming agreement for their codes of Football for marketing and brand building purposes.
Rugby Union became Rugby.
Rugby League became Australian Rugby League. (ARL)
Australian Rules Football became Australian Football League (AFL)
Soccer became Football.
So, local AFL Leagues play AFL”
That’s nonsense
The AFL promoted the use of “AFL” to describe the code in non traditional areas. Soccer decided to call itself football without qualification presumably because it thought it might help it’s popularity. There was no grand nomenclature settlement
Running around a Victorian electorate calling yourself an AFL player when you played in the Yarra valley or EFL or wherever this character played is misleading . Particularly if you have the same name as an actual AFL player
I guess we’ll have to see the details of this first home owners’ scheme, but it *might* end up operating somewhat like the WA Keystart scheme. I am not fully au fait with how it works, but it has been operating for ages, under both shades of government, and from this distance, does not appear to have had too nefarious an impact
https://www.keystart.com.au/
Rocket
I’ve been busting to get home so that I could read PB comments on the Lib Launch, and so far I’m not disappointed. 🙂
Hey William
There appears to be an error in the Mallee Electoral Guide, where the tables of candidate votes in the top right are actually Melbourne Ports’ (alphabetical error of an old seat?)
https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2019/Mallee.htm
Welcome back lizzie, hope you are fully recovered from your surgery.
In light of the report on World Extinctions, our imitation Environment Minister has spent her campaign shoring up her (apparently) safe seat. IMV that’s indicative of her selfish attitude to the whole climate change question.
lizzie
Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 4:36 pm
Comment #219
I like your nonchalance.
How are your dogs (and you). Minor brain surgery indeed. I keep begging the ladies at the local bread shop to help me out with a brain tranplant. Get in the queue they tell me.
We didn’t know where to send the flowers – so – here for you —
🌷🌸🌹🌺🌻
🍪🍪🍪 Cookies for the dogs.
lizzie
Katharine Murphy was unimpressed with the ‘launch’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/12/liberal-campaign-launch-a-slow-leak-of-air-from-a-balloon-a-hiss-presaging-deflation
Rocket Rocket
I decided NOT to show that article to Bluey. Sometimes ignorance is bliss.
Welcome back Lizzie. You were indeed sorely missed!!
Bluey Report with only Six Days of War to be Waged!
Bluey reckons that the one clear thing to come out of the whole campaign is that Speers is by far and away the best political commentator and interviewer in the Australian political landscape. He politely and comprehensively forced Frydenberg to backtrack on at least six lies in the interview this morning. Speers is a policy wonk. Speers promptly cornered Frydenberg on the funding for the EW link. Frydenberg admitted that the $4 billion was a contingent liability. Therefore, he argued, it should not be held against the Budget Surplus. FMD, thought Bluey. What about the other $3 billion? Well, that would come out of tolls. But would it ever even happen asked Speers? No because that terrible Andrews won’t approve it thundered Frydenberg with mock rage.
In short, the massive new E-W iinfrastructure announcement is Pie in the Sky Infrastructure funded by Bluey Sky Inc. Bluey reckons that the E-W link policy is a classic example of what you get when you have a pathetic treasurer being bossed by a used car salesman.
Not lacking in chutzpah, Frydenberg duly lied about being in the black during a pedestrian effort in the Launch.
Bluey reckon that Frydenberg, the Great White Hope of the Great White Party has been ordinary this campaign. Bowen ran rings around him in the debate.
Jeyes of Sky reckons that Labor has backloaded its ads campaign.
Bluey reckons that a pseudo launch, when your ship of fools is already becalmed is the launch you have when you have run out of ideas. Bluey recalls a story that is possibly apocryphal. It concerns a midshipman up before the Board going for his Lieutenant’s exam during the Napoleonic Wars. A Very Salty Captain asked the following question. ‘What you would do if your rudder has gone, half the crew is drunk, you are dismasted, you are in an onshore current during an onshore gale and the first breakers are two fathoms to leeward?’
‘Pray for Divine Providence!’ was the prompt (and accepted) response.
Bluey reckons the Liberals have not even got a prayer.
Bluey noted that the Liberals featured Henderson as the opening speaker for the Launch. What an interesting way to sandbag Corangamite! Hendo the orator did not set the Liberal World on fire.
Shorten trotted out Chloe, and Morrison Jenny. Bluey has no idea what either of these gambits will do for the vote. Bluey has his druthers but Bluey reckons that the important thing is to focus on the policies. In that sphere Mr Chloe is streets ahead of Mr Jenny.
They dredged up a Liberal candidate to sing the national anthem. The rendition had about as much pizzazz as a funeral dirge.
Kelly this morning announced that the last two days are critical because that is when the undecideds wake up. Kelly opined that FUD might just still work. Bluey noticed that in this context Mr Morrison has announced that he will make an Address to the Nation on Thursday. Bluey reckons that this morning’s daft ramble was enough already and that the Nation would be grateful if Morrison stopped talking for even half an hour.
Some anonymous middle-aged bloke was given a trot at the Liberal launch. Bluey can’t recall if the Nationals held a launch. If they did it was probably not al fresco on the bed of the Darling. The tacit admissions about the cost of Global Warming were staggering: $7 billion in drought aid alone. On top of that there were $3 billion in water rorts and $3 billion for a state rural bank. The dude duly bragged that this was a ‘record’ amount of drought aid as if that were some sort of accomplishment. Well yes, reckons Bluey, but that is what is going to be needed with Global Warming. More and more and bigger and bigger ‘aid’ packages.
Breaking a short drought, yet another Liberal, this time called Green has been caught with his muslim-hate and gay-hate pants down. Bluey reckons that having let it all hang out, his timing is not too bad and he might hang in there for six more days.
In yet another fragrant whiff of the old funny money, some connections with Canstruct fed the Liberal Party something over $6,000 while something like a half billion in contracts were being decided on in yet another of the Liberal’s famous lucky dip, arm’s length, who moi? type processes. Bluey notes that any person connected with the thing and who was prepared to go on the record reckoned that it was all above board.
Bluey reckons bring on the ICAC and make it retrospective.
Bluey noted that the Launch location was half empty – like the Trump inaugural crowd.
Bluey cast about for a glimpse of the Minister who looks after his best interests but was disappointed. Bluey notes that there is a bit of gender confusion about this. It has been suggested that Price is the Where’s Wally? of Australian politics. Bluey reminds his reader that Price would actually be the Where’s Wanda? of Australian politics. Mind you, Bluey reckons that Price IS a bit of a Wally.
There was the usual plethora of seat-by-seat discussions.
Bluey noticed that the editors of such newspapers as offered an opinion all supported the re-election of a chaotic and divided government that is ethically challenged, marked by its diversity of outright lying, and just plain crony capitalist corrupt. And they wonder why people stop reading their low rent trash!
Bluey notes that the Insiders Panel could hardly even bring themselves to chortle cynically when they relayed how Morrison reckoned that legislation to stop the use of animal testing for cosmetics is going to help stop the Anthropocene Extinction. FMD. Funny as.
Score for the Day: Labor 1; Liberals 0.
Cumulative Score: Labor 27; Liberals 4.
Seen at the Higgins prepoll on Saturday
OK my picks……
51/49 for all opinion polls from here to the Big Day (convergence!).
52/48 in the final washup of the count after pre-poll/postals/finding that lost box in the van (fwiw I think gross measure of 2PP won’t mean much with regional variations/minor maddy RWNJ vote fragmentation).
ALP to get 78 seats, Tories 67, Indies/Greens 6.
Senate: unrepresentative swill with big bells on.
And love the idea of the sleeper: As before I’ll take Aston as mad grabs.
Fess
I have had to break the habit of a lifetime and promise to do a half hour balancing exercises every day. 🙁
Lizzie
Welcome back.
I particularly missed your presence when the extinction report was handed down.
All the best for the recovery
‘guytaur says:
Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 4:57 pm
Lizzie
Welcome back.
I particularly missed your presence when the extinction report was handed down. ‘
Lizzie
I don’t think Guytaur meant that. Welcome back!
Is Ball doing that though? Someone here mistakenly said he was ex-AFL but the text above from the Greens says he was a former Australian rules footballer which would seem to be correct. So I am just asking whether anyone has any evidence of him claiming to be “ex-AFL”?
Thanks Laocoon, I’ve fixed that now.
Boerwar
I can’t believe (well, perhaps I can) that there was so little reaction to the ‘extinction report’.
And so nice to get Bluey’s take on the shambles.
shift
Easy mistake to make. Former footballer working with the AFL in media description would do it.
Anyone heard from Ratsak?
Welcome back lizzie. You’ve been missed.
It sounds like you’ve had an adventure. I hope you’re over the worst of it and well on the way to a full recovery. All the best.
50/50 in the next set of opinion polls
51/49 to Liberals in the final Newspoll and the actual election results.
LNP Government returned with between 74 to 76 seats.
KayJay
Thanks for the flowers. 🙂 🙂
Guytaur I do understand that and I’m not criticising them apart from the error but several people here now have ascribed malice and dishonesty to Jason Ball’s actions and I’m requesting that they provide evidence before they smear him
It is a complex issue because Caster Semenya was raised as a girl and identifies as a woman. Socially and culturally she is a woman. I can only imagine how hurtful it is to be told that you aren’t female enough to compete against other women unless you take testosterone-suppressing medication. Biologically Caster Semenya has some female attributes and some male attributes.
The reason for separating men and women in competitive sport is because male testosterone levels give male athletes significantly more muscle mass, muscle strength, and capacity to supply oxygen to the muscles.
If a person’s natural testosterone level is in the range that is typical for males, there is a logical fairness-based argument that this person should be competing against male athletes.
Competitive sport would be boring and unfair if people with testosterone levels in the female range were competing against people with testosterone levels in the male range.
Did Bill Shorten claim to be an AFL player? Can’t trust him on any level?
Welcome back Lizzie. Hope you are feeling well?
Lizzie welcome back!
Tony Wright.
The PM promised a campaign launch free of hoopla, and by crikey, he delivered https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/the-pm-promised-a-campaign-launch-free-of-hoopla-and-by-crikey-he-delivered-20190512-p51mir.html … via @theage
Seems like Bluey is a fan of CS Forester!
Great report again, thanks.
victoria and billie
I’m fatter! Far too many carbs in a hospital diet when one is confined to bed most of the time.
lizzie @ #713 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 4:57 pm
Hope you have a quick recovery Lizzie. Now that you have had some surgery to help you restore balance do we look forward to seeing your name up as a journalist for the ABC 🙂
Lizzie
No matter. As long as you are recovering well, you can adjust your diet at home now
If you are a progressive and you are thinking about whom to vote for in the Senate election:
Both the Australian Workers’ Party Party and the Pirate Party support a federally funded, community-administered Job Guarantee.
The Greens support a trial of a Job Guarantee.
The ALP do not support a trial of a Job Guarantee.
Therefore the smart play is to put the Australian Workers’ Party and the Pirate Party first and second (or vice versa).
Put the Greens third.
Put Sustainable Australia Party fourth.
Put Animal Justice fifth.
Put the ALP sixth.
In 2016 pre-polling voting for Pearce at Joondalup was as follows:
PORTER, Christian Liberal 1,605 46.94
FRENCH, Thomas Australian Labor Party 1,188 34.75
There are more pre-poll options now including one at Yanchep. Based on estimates from AEC workers there have been about 1000-1500 votes cast there alone since pre-polling. I was there for eight days and would guess it at about 48-52, at worst, for Labor. This does not count those who take no HTVs because they “know how to vote” or “have made their minds up”.
Interesting times.
Boerwar
Another beauty by bluey!
Glad to hear your op and rehab went well except for the hospital food.
ADM
In earlier days, yes. But now Patrick O’Brian leaves Forrester dead in the water.
ruawake
Good to see a post from you.
Tetsujin @ #722 Sunday, May 12th, 2019 – 5:07 pm
Sorry. I don’t have a “final Newspoll” guess list open yet. I’m hoping you can remind me closer to the day. The rest of your guesses are recorded.
Hiya Lizzie! And Ruawake … long time no see! And Laocoon … another long timer not seen in a while.
The old gang is here … even had a drop in from Generic Person the other day!
If Caster Semenya is biologically a female then she should be able to compete in women’s sport no matter how much natural testosterone she has in her body.
If Caster Semenya is biologically not a female then she should not be able to in women’s sport.
Vic
Bluey says thank you.
And cheers to ruawake and laocoon too!
Admittedly I’m very cautious when considering whether to apply for a loan, however I did manage to convince both offspring to wait until they had the 20% deposit for a housing loan.
I think that Morrison’s 5% promise would tempt some very marginal borrowers to over commit themselves and rue the consequences later. It’s similar to an earlier LNP proposal to allow young people to access their superannuation to put together a deposit. Thank goodness that was apparently scuttled.
Labor has good political reasons to make the same promise. However I’m hoping it will never be implemented and will be buried beneath all the very important policies that need to be implemented first.
The only ex-AFL player who has played at the highest level in this election is Nationals MHR Damian Drum who played for Geelong and coached Fremantle. Not sure if there are any other candidates with that background.
BTW William, the Nicholl’s page on the Election guide does not have a picture of the Labor Candidate.
EM
If we took the fun run approach to athletics then the “problem” would be much less.
When you are telling an athlete to take an injection to inhibit performance that goes against the whole drug free idea.