Three new polls over the last week, from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, have made next to no difference on BludgerTrack’s reading of the two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection. The only change to report is movement from the major parties to the minor parties on the primary vote, with One Nation in particular bouncing back a little after a recent slump. I am not calculating a trend for the United Australia Party at this point – that will only change if I can find the time for it.
With little change in the state breakdowns, the story there continues to be consistent with both sides’ assessment of the situation everywhere except Queensland, where Labor is being credited with what seems an inordinately big swing. It should be noted that BludgerTrack is currently a lot richer in national than state-level data, which should hopefully change reasonably soon with the publication of breakdowns from Newspoll. As ever, it will be interesting to see what these numbers have to say about Queensland.
Newspoll and Ipsos both provided leadership ratings for the week, which caused both leaders to drop slightly on net approval, and resulted in no change whatsoever on preferred prime minister. However, this involved a cancelling out effect of two sets of numbers that were dramatically different from each other, after fairly dramatic bias adjustment measures were applied to Ipsos. So if you look carefully at the leadership ratings trend charts on the BludgerTrack display, the Ipsos results for preferred prime minister and Scott Morrison’s net approval show up as fairly dramatic outliers.
The normal form of Ipsos is to produce more flattering leadership approval numbers than other pollsters, particularly in relation to the Prime Minister. Scott Morrison continued to record a net favourable rating of +3% in the latest poll, but this was seven down on last time, and five worse than his previous low point. There was none of this from Newspoll though, which recorded next to no change. Similarly, it was a case of up from Ipsos and down from Newspoll for Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, with the latter carrying slightly the greater weight.
The full display is available through the link below – and, as ever, don’t miss Seat du jour, today detailing with Corangamite.
@Observer, as both an economist and the son of someone who had one of the more unusual fronto-temporal dementias, I’d say that Trump’s actions and behaviours are classic symptoms of FTD. I’d say he’s about two years in to an eight year progression of the disease – still able to do executive functioning (by relying on repetition and routine) – another year and the deficits will be unarguable. Four years from now he will be ‘in the wilderness’ as the saying goes.
Rex’s condemnation of Albo and Wong strongly suggests that they have a valid point.
I do not know the story of the South Coast little old lady.
BUT, she does not qualify for the aged pension or the part aged pension (even $1-)
Because, if those were her circumstances, there would be no impact on her.
So, her circumstances across Assets (excluding the family home) and/or Income (and the legislation of government, noting who the government is and has been for 6 years now) are that she does NOT QUALIFY FOR THE PENSION or a part pension.
Why not?
Perhaps this government should have looked at the adequacy of the Pension and the integrity of qualifying.
Instead of playing politics with our older generation.
What do those on the Pension think of this carry on?
Birmingham had just finished deliberately delivering a Very, Very Big Lie about Labor policy towards China.
In other words Birmingham was being a big liar and a big cheat.
The Liberal%National/Country Party do not take losing well. It’s born to rule thing. Its a white Australian thing.
The faux outrage after 1972, Hawke had them all bluffed, Keating just incited rage in them (and still does), Rudd was stymied at every turn and Gillard showed the extent to which the LNP would cast aside all vestiges of political ethics and then cast the appalling Abbott to destroy a democratically elected government.
The LNP are as corrupt a political force as has existed, very fortunate that the MSM is so exempt from truth and ethics that it allows such a morally bankrupt mob to exist at all.
I shan’t even begin to list the degree and depth of misappropriation instigated and applauded by the LNP as a role of a democratically elected government.
A fully funded Royal Commission is needed to undo the rampant fraud perpetrated by this government.
Morrison has been incredibly aided by media so intent on bludgeoning a role for themselves that it no longer aspires to report the truth. The word journalist now held in contempt.
The last week will be a final act of epic proportions of a government so bereft of policy that any other result than a termination would be an injustice to Australia’s future as the “clever” country.
Jackol
Singular subject/singular verb.
Plural subject/plural verb……. of course.
That is not what I was …….. of course.
I was commenting not on the above, but on your incorrect statement that “some” is a collective noun.
Unicorn replying ……. pass.
Reading comprehension skills ……. glorious fail.
Knowledge of parts of speech ……. fail.
Hey,
Has anyone heard from Briefly lately?
Bluey Report: Nine Days to Nirvana
Bluey reckons that today was steady as she goes.
Bluey notes that The Australian’s journalists took more positions on the third debate outcome than the Kama Sutra but that it was all to one end: to hide the fact that the Coalition is fucked.
Bluey is heartened that Morrison’s bigger Trumpian lies are coming home to roost – albeit at a slow rate. The two biggies: ‘we are in the black’ and ‘climate action is in the pink’ did a fair bit to undermine him in the leadership debates. Bluey reckons that one liner lies that are based on fake news ultimately come unstuck. Bluey is gobsmacked that a third truly large lie about non-existent legislation to stop biodiversity loss in Australia has yet to gain much traction but that it is feeding into the cumulative negative impact of the She Whose Name Cannot be Mentioned. A commentator whose name has escaped Bluey noted at the time of the Price ascension that Price’s incompetence was collateral damage of not having enough women of merit. Prescient stuff.
Bluey was heartened that the audience was inclined to laugh whenever Morrison tried his shape shifting on Global Warming. Remember how he excoriated South Australia for its renewable investments. Notice how now he is bragging about renewables investments, having co-opted the South Australian state investments just like that?
Bluey notes that, following the Extinction Report, TWIS has come out and stated that the response to the Anthropocene Extinction Event event should be beyond politics. Yesterday Littleproud stated that MDB water should be beyond politics. Bluey reckons same old same old: the disposition of resources is ALWAYS going to be political. TWIS has yet to twig that the Greens have locked up the environmentalist vote where the political sun don’t shine.
Morrison was trying to sandbag Cowper against Oakshott today. Bluey reckons the Coalition has got Buckley’s in Cowper.
Bluey notes that there were the usual special pleading polls out and about including one with the rather bizarre finding that most Australians would prefer not to buy an electric car. Bluey assumes that we are supposed to jump the conclusion that Australians would prefer to vote 1 the Coalition and to buy coal-powered cars.
Bluey notes that Labor is going to double funding for Indigenous Protected Areas. Bluey knows that this is one of the most successful Indigenous programs in the history of Federation, is totally supported by the relevant Indigenous communities, and Bluey is extremely glad that Labor is going to reinforce success.
Bluey notes that there was no candidate wastage today after the Greens made a late run in this race yesterday. Ms Price, CLP candidate, who just recently was lashing the Greens for their application of the abusive term ‘coconut’ has now been outed as having linked some less than salubrious commentary on muslims. Bluey reckons that the candidacy of the Greens coconut shyster and the CLP muslim baiter will probably survive because the NT is different. Meanwhile, the Nationals WA State Director has been sacked after he failed to recover from the effects of a stroke. Bluey trusts that he enjoys his forthcoming Centrelink experiences.
Bluey has been waiting for the real panic button to be hit. And it has! Das Boots! Today they let Dutton out of his Dunce’s Corner for a short run on the topic in Townesville. Someone should remind someone that the last time the Coalition tried to do their national panic stations FUD routine on Das Boots! it cost the taxpayer $1.4 billion to open and close Christmas Island for nothing. Naturally ‘The Australian’ has a headline article on Page 1 about Shorten having to defend the Failed Malaysian Solution on the topic. Bluey reckons that since the MS was never tried we will never know whether it would have failed. Not that this would stop ‘The Australian’. Bluey reckons that Das Boots! is dead in the water as a vote shifter.
Bluey reckons the Childcare Fraud case will not make a whole lot of difference but will not be helping the Coalition either. Ditto the constant stream of horrible stories coming out of the privatized aged care industry RC.
Bluey watched a children’s nursery rhyme utube this afternoon with some baby occies. The trials and tribulations of the Ginger Bread Man were interrupted, grotesquely, by two political ads. One was to alert the nation that the Commies had purchased an airfield near Karratha in order to invade it. (Bluey reckons the Commies have gone soft in the head. In the old days they would simply have grabbed the airfield). In the other ad the Greens were talking about urging the raising of some demands in lieu of their ability to do substantive action on something or other. Bluey wonders whether there should be a rule separating fairy tales from politics but believes that the Greens and the United Australia Party would always find a way.
Bluey notes that someone ran a red steer through the Armidale Club and that this may have enabled the construction of an eventual landing place for Joyce’s forced shift of Australia’s institutional answer to foot in mouth disease to Armidale. Bluey reckons that it is odd how these sorts of highly unlikely stories chase Joyce around, and trusts that the AFP will follow the money and the spivs with a bit more urgency once Government changes hands.
Bluey notes that there has been a fair bit of slagging of Ms Kelly’s approach to political journalism. Bluey reckons that she is streets ahead of Bolt, Kenny and Ackerman. So there.
Bluey notes that Mr Howard has written to the Victims of Dickson opining that Dutton was his most competent minister. Bluey knows that Dutton was a useless minister in the Howard Government and what does that say about the other ministers? Bluey notes that Dutton’s ministerial direction of the Home Affairs Department has been chaotic so no real improvement over time.
Bluey notes that a big cat has got in among the betting pigeons. Bluey is not inclined to take the betting markets seriously as predictors of actual outcomes.
With respect to the number that dare not mention its name, Bluey notes that Morrison and Frydenberg were right to claim that the Australia Institute’s $77 billion figure for tax cuts to Australia’s neediest rich people, including every single Coalition member of Parliament, was incorrect. It turns out that it is more likely that these leeches will suck up $88 billion.
Oncologists have come out swinging today against Morrison’s attempts to project his venality values onto their profession in his jihad against Labor’s help to unfortunates with the Big C. This reminds Bluey of one of Shorten’s more successful lines in the debate, wtte, ‘There you are. According to Mr Morrison you should be satisfied with what Mr Morrison has done for cancer patients, for climate and for child care.’ It was an excellent reverse ferret of Mr Morrison’s ongoing and not-so subliminal messaging that we have never had it so good.
Score for the Day: Labor 1; Liberals 0.
Cumulative Score: Labor 23; Liberals 4.
Why do Queenslanders put up with Mp’s like this guy? There was movement within the LNP late last year to get a different candidate, but to no avail. This was on facebook in Bowman last night after a debate at Capalaba where Lamo claimed animals adapt if you destroy their habitats!! “Maybe we should destroy his house. His family. His bank accounts. And see how adapting he is. Lamo is a pig. A pig that has crossed many lines with regards to his conduct. Lamo is no longer invited to a Capalaba education facility because he was rude and inappropriate to staff. Lamo is no longer invited to another educational center because it was seen that he was inappropriate with a person under the age of 18. Lamo goes to school anzac parades and steals wreaths to lay, because he did not bring his own. Lamo parks illegally. Lamo doesn’t pay his rego. Lamo pushed kids. Lamo pushes women . How is this dog still employed federally.” Wondering how many other people have to put up with similar behaviour from their elected member? An awful lot more could be added to this list of bad behaviours is all I know…and he’ll still get elected in….why!
Daily Mail has a mildly complimentary article abut Shorten on their Home page about the Beaconsfield Mine Rescue, even they are realising that Scomo is cooked and they don’t want egg on their faces (pardon the pun)
The “ failed Malaysia solution “ pile on is a very interesting approach by the Oz given how successful the coalition Cambodia agreement has been.
Go for it .
Mavis Davis @ #531 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 4:30 pm
No, indeed it would be considerably better.
psyclaw – uh, “Labor” is the collective noun in question.
I did no such thing.
I was volunteering for the ALP today in Fadden and I was abused verbally on 12 occasions by senior voters who were distraught about losing their franking credit refunds. Don’t worry, as I gave it as good as I got it! Poor little possums won’t be able to go on their luxury escape holidays next year.
Jackol @ #578 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 5:15 pm
Just like picking Magnif Mal?
Newspoll 53/47 to labor
Essential poll 54/46 to labor
election night 53.9/46.1% to labor
Very astute observation wrt market manipulation, Observer.
“John Howard says Peter Dutton was “the most competent Minister in my Government” …
I’m pretty sure Dutton was a junior minister in Howard’s government and wasn’t even in Howards cabinet by the time of his defeat in 2007. Howard has certainly exaggerated Duttons promince during that period..
doyley @ 6:08 pm
Re the Cambodia deal for resettling refugees some years ago: my brother had some fun pointing out to a parliamentary committee the contrast between the letters sent by Immigration to refugees they hoped would agree to go to Cambodia – which among other things made glowing reference to the quality of the health services in that country – and the diametrically opposed advice about Cambodian health services on the Smartraveller website.
You could tell Wong was simply outraged that he got his sh!tty partisan attack in with no option call him out and then was expected to make nice. She subsequently said they don’t have a rancorous relationship however this was a low ball act
And Birmingham knew it too, you could see he looked sheepish
“Fran”
I think like a lot in the media, she falls in the economically “mainstream”, socially progressive camp. Hawke and Keating were reasonably popular with that sort, as their economic program at the time was well supported by mainstream economists, and they were socially progressive.
I think the how was for them that Malcolm would be similar.
“I think the how was for them that Malcolm would be similar”
Well that made no sense.
It should have read
I think the hope for them was that Malcolm would be similar.
Another ABC Factcheck proves what Shorten has been saying about who benefits from tax cut is correct. Welfare for the wealthy. Virtually all of Shorten’s facts checked have proven correct.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-09/federal-election-fact-check-cost-of-coalition-tax-cuts/11092856
Yet the other half of this issue is not said: what ScumMo says about who benefits from tax cuts is a pack of lies. Why isn’t he called on it? Journalists do not have to read very far to find evidence that virtually all of ScumMo’s claims about coalition tax cuts and Labor tax reforms are lies. He knows they are lies and keeps saying them. Time for reporters to ask harder questions than “what will you do if you get reelected?” Questions like “what will you do if the economy goes from stagnation to recession” need to be asked of our “great economic manager”.
That ABC Factcheck of the coalition’s tax cut beneficiaries is devastating. Not only is it true that an unsustainable amount of taxpayer funds is going to support the wealthiest income earners, but the original modeling understated the amount by at least $10b!
And I note that Shorten is on Insiders this week.
“Has anyone heard from Briefly lately?”
He’s been posting within the last few days. I think that he’s very busy campaigning for Labor and probably doesn’t have much time to post here.
Michael says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 6:22 pm
doyley @ 6:08 pm
This is one of the more opaque deals by this Government and one that deserves independent investigation, especially considering the beneficiaries were a highly corrupt regime.
Socrates
For me it’s enough it open war amongst the Journalists on twitter.
Nine and ABC journalists particularly prominent attacking Newscorp
Crikey is promoting its Holy Wars articles.
Labor is being very open about their opinion.
As a result Dutton’s attempt has got the media questioning the whole scare campaign.
To me this could be the biggest turning point in our politics since Tony Abbott became leader. We have a precise time of the start. The hit piece by Newscorp on Mr Shorten’s mum.
“especially considering the beneficiaries were a highly corrupt regime.”
It was meant to benefit two regimes.
Just imagine the furore if, say, Kevin Rudd has struck a deal with another country to take some of our asylum seekers, spent $50+ million and ended up settling 4. The Noise Machine would have been deafening.
But when the Coalition does it, it sinks without a trace like Reefgate, Hellogate and Palladingate.
William Bowe:
What – you mean drinking the bongwater doesn’t turn one into George Clooney?
Wayne Swan has really unloaded on Murdoch and News Corp.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/may/09/wayne-swan-lashes-out-at-murdoch-medias-misuse-of-power?CMP=share_btn_tw
Thanks S777
He really should have stopped while he was behind. 🙂
Once again demonstrating that he and his Government have no idea about environmental issues.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/09/scott-morrison-claims-animal-testing-bill-is-action-on-extinction-crisis
Ucoms just pulled me for the second time this week again for the wrong electorate. Eden-monaro this time which we moved out of over 5 years ago.
Barney in Saigon
Even worse , Scrott just meant that the Coalition have stopped their Putting Lipstick on a Pig policy experiments .
Who is Chicken Man working for?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-new-superhero-in-warringah-but-who-is-chicken-man-working-for-20190509-p51lm1.html
Probably one of the more benign outputs of Liberal black ops.
Next week I’m sure that the Coalition will go completely feral. It would Bev good to prepoll and leave the country for about 10 days.
Marko
Thanks for fighting the good fight. If Labor win the real test will be at the subsequent election – will the Coalition vow to “bring back” the franking credits rort, the negative gearing rort, the capital gains rort?
I doubt that they will want to blow such massive holes in their budget numbers. But the questions should definitely be asked of them all. Then all those abusing you today can also abuse the Coalition for not bringing back these rorts.
It may be especially good if Frydenberg is leader as he has been the prime RD (“Defender of the Rorts”)
Steve777 @ #637 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 4:56 pm
Whatever happened to Captain GetUp? He seems to have disappeared.
United Australia Party leader Clive Palmer has been forced to sack a candidate who outed himself as a September 11 conspiracy theorist, claiming the terrorist attacks were the work of “globalist forces” which might include layers of the United States government.
Tony Pecora, the UAP candidate for the seat of Melbourne, called for an investigation into the 2001 attacks, which killed almost 3000 people, saying “the whole story doesn’t make sense”.
Mr Palmer’s spokesman Andrew Crook confirmed the party had disendorsed Mr Pecora on Thursday evening after being confronted with the candidate’s comments, made during an interview with The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
Mr Pecora invoked the popular “controlled demolition” conspiracy theory arising from the fact World Trade Centre building seven collapsed without being directly hit by an aircraft.
The bulk of Coorey’s article is contradicted by the last two paragraphs lol
Watching Morrison call the bingo I couldn’t help but think he may have missed his calling.
Confessions says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 7:02 pm
I think they may have cancelled his visa, so he’s either in immigration detention or they’ve kicked him out already.
Confessions
Agreed.
Guytaur
We can only hope so. I have cancelled my subscription to digital SMH and only fund Guardian, Crikey and Saturday Paper now. Regardless of bias, the MSM wont be getting my money again unless I think they are doing their job. The Saturday Paper is excellent quality writing BTW.
Barney:
The outfit that hired him should ask for their money back.
Late Riser:
Newspoll 51-49
Essential 52-48
Final election result 51.8
Thanks for being the Bludger of Record.
alpine blizzard
Welcome. I have often thought that if this were an equivalent site in the USA with 12 times the population there would be around 12000 entries per day rather than 1000, say around 10 per minute rather than one per minute and it would become un-followable!
Interesting “number of seats” for each party betting on TAB. You can only get 10/1 for Coalition under 50 seats!
Confessions says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 7:11 pm
Why?
He was their idea.
Fess
Chicken man’s signs – same font, same colour scheme – really hard to tell whether it comes out of the same ‘lab’ that lined people up outside Labor’s launch!
I’ll predict 51/49 for the following Newspoll.