Three new polls over the last week, from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, have made next to no difference on BludgerTrack’s reading of the two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection. The only change to report is movement from the major parties to the minor parties on the primary vote, with One Nation in particular bouncing back a little after a recent slump. I am not calculating a trend for the United Australia Party at this point – that will only change if I can find the time for it.
With little change in the state breakdowns, the story there continues to be consistent with both sides’ assessment of the situation everywhere except Queensland, where Labor is being credited with what seems an inordinately big swing. It should be noted that BludgerTrack is currently a lot richer in national than state-level data, which should hopefully change reasonably soon with the publication of breakdowns from Newspoll. As ever, it will be interesting to see what these numbers have to say about Queensland.
Newspoll and Ipsos both provided leadership ratings for the week, which caused both leaders to drop slightly on net approval, and resulted in no change whatsoever on preferred prime minister. However, this involved a cancelling out effect of two sets of numbers that were dramatically different from each other, after fairly dramatic bias adjustment measures were applied to Ipsos. So if you look carefully at the leadership ratings trend charts on the BludgerTrack display, the Ipsos results for preferred prime minister and Scott Morrison’s net approval show up as fairly dramatic outliers.
The normal form of Ipsos is to produce more flattering leadership approval numbers than other pollsters, particularly in relation to the Prime Minister. Scott Morrison continued to record a net favourable rating of +3% in the latest poll, but this was seven down on last time, and five worse than his previous low point. There was none of this from Newspoll though, which recorded next to no change. Similarly, it was a case of up from Ipsos and down from Newspoll for Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, with the latter carrying slightly the greater weight.
The full display is available through the link below – and, as ever, don’t miss Seat du jour, today detailing with Corangamite.
“Question: Has Mr Birmingham asked for an apology?
Wong: No, we’ve got a good relationship. We’ve had robust exchanges over the years. You know, you live in Adelaide, so we know how to deal with that. He hasn’t asked for an apology and I wouldn’t expect him to do so.
Question: Is it right though for Labor to criticise the negativity in politics at the moment when you do see those images, such as you refusing to shake his hand after the debate?”
Jesus Christ.
frednk
I like the Drum as well, especially yelling at it when the likes of Devine, Sloan & Sheridan are on.
Zoidlord @ 4.41pm
“John Howard says Peter Dutton was “the most competent Minister in my Government” …”.
Which must mean all the other Ministers were less competent. Well, I guess Mr Howard would know, and who am I to disagree?
The alternative is that he’s getting silly in his old age.
For anyone still following Brexit, it appears some progress at least is happening for Ireland and Britain should a no-deal Brexit eventuate.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/08/british-irish-deal-guarantee-rights-citizens-after-brexit
Pedant says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 4:55 pm
Zoidlord @ 4.41pm
“John Howard says Peter Dutton was “the most competent Minister in my Government” …”.
Which must mean all the other Ministers were less competent. Well, I guess Mr Howard would know, and who am I to disagree?
The alternative is that he’s getting silly in his old age.
———————–
Sorry to be pedantic but they are not necessarily alternatives. They could both be correct.
Re Penny Wong and the non-handshake. There was a story I heard nearly 40 years ago, probably apocryphal, that at the 1954 Geneva Conference on Indochina, John Foster Dulles, after shaking hands with Chou EnLai, took a handkerchief from his pocket and wiped his hand. Whereupon Chou did the same, but then threw the handkerchief away.
Late Riser,
I intend to start following Brexit again when the next entertaining wave of panic hits, about five months from now.
Peter Stanton @ 4:59 pm
Far be it from me to expect an apology when out-pedanted. 🙂
That letter (probably via Timmy Wilson’s taxpayer-funded around Australia jamboree), doesn’t specify what that old lady’s costs are, nor how exactly her life will be adversely affected by Labor’s changes to Cash Back for Franking Credits Dividends Tax not Paid.
What is obvious is, like most of the people whose sob stories the media and the Liberal Party have highlighted, that that old lady does not want to touch her principal and just wants to be allowed the luxury of living off the cash paid to her by the government. Living large as well, I would hazard a guess.
Mavis Davis @ #546 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 4:51 pm
Sorry. I’m feeling dumb. 🙁
Do you mean 50%+2.64%=52.64% to Labor?
And is this an additional or updated guess for Newspoll, election night, or final declared election result? (I have you down for a declared election result of 52.5/47.5.)
I’ll put this down as a 53/47 (ALP/LNP) Newspoll guess for now. 🙂
Labor going on the front foot over the Coalition’s lack of costings for their highest income tax cuts.
Shadow finance minister Mr Chalmers today said Labor would more closely question Liberal policy costings, accusing it of being “very shifty when it comes to personal income tax cuts for people on the highest incomes in Australia”.
“Independent modelling (by the Australia Institute) has shown that Scott Morrison’s income tax cuts will give $77 billion to people in the highest tax bracket in this country,” he told reporters today.
“Twenty-five days ago, (Finance Minister) Mathias Cormann said that he would provide the Australian people with the dollar figure. Twenty-five days have passed. (Treasurer) Josh Frydenberg was given, by my count, up to nine opportunities this morning to say what that dollar figure is …
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/why-labors-election-costings-could-be-a-gamechanger/news-story/0d2e9f916bc6f3a8e6e6bcd67436ef6e
I think it’s pretty childish for Wong to refuse to shake Birmingham’s hand. She is normally very polite and unruffled.
Newspoll 52/48
End of the night 53.5/46.5
Final Declaration 53/47
Chaser is offering a community service.
https://twitter.com/chaser/status/1126114174336000000
I will go for:
Next Newspoll 52-48
Election night: 53.1-46.9
Final 2pp: 52.6-47.4
Late Riser
Next Newspoll 52 to Labor
Thanks
Hello all, I follow this blog religiously so I might as well start having an input.
52/48 to the ALP for the next newpoll is my guess 🙂
End of night :53/47
End of all counting: 52.5/47.5
psychlaw –
The quoted line that Darc ‘corrected’ was
The ‘is’ after ‘Labor’ is a verb applied to ‘Labor’, not the ‘Some of the lines’, and is quite correct as it is. Using ‘are’ would have been correct as well.
Pedantry fail.
Ante Meridian @ #554 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 4:59 pm
The approaching EU elections promise some excitement. But you’re right, there’s not much to see above the water at the moment.
alpine blizzard
Cheers!
After reading that interview between Jon Faine and Josh Frydenburg, wherein Josh Frydenburg went around and around the Mulberry tree without actually answering any of Faine’s questions directly (and why didn’t he just be honest and say that the reason the Liberal Party didn’t want to disendorse Garpal Singh is because they don’t want to lose the votes of like-minded Victorian Sikhs?), I have come to the conclusion that I don’t really like the idea of Josh Frydenburg being Liberal Leader at any time in the future, either. He is as genuine as a 30 dollar bill.
Late Riser,
52-48 for next Newspoll and Essential, but will hold off for the actual election result.
I got that letter zoidy.
It went straight into the fire.
She has spent up big. All to no avail. Sharkie is well liked, by lefties, farmers, shop owners…
Anybody have insider goss on how Gladigau is going in Barker? Xenephons candidate last time got close.
Okay, here are mine:
Next Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential will all be 52/48.
On election night it will be 53.2 to the ALP.
Once the dust settles it will be 52.1 to the ALP.
Thanks!
alpine blizzard,
Welcome! You’ll do okay, as long as you aren’t a snowflake. 😀
Simon Katich,
Do you recognise the little old lady who wrote the sob story/letter?
C@tmomma @ #568 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 5:10 pm
Nah. I’ll give you $3, not a cent more.
Frydenberg isn’t my cup of tea either, but if he is made leader after this election that would, to me, be a somewhat positive sign that the Libs were deliberately choosing to get off the far right express train that they seem to be on at the moment.
If they pick Dutton or Abbott they’re sticking with more of the same, and that’s not a good thing for any of us.
Does Van Badham qualify as a journo? Also, that was our Fiona with Bill yesterday, and on Sunday arvo,late, she will host a presentation with Peter Garrett on Labors environment policies in Huskisson. Apparently Peter walked into our campaign office and asked could he help. I am on the vertically challenged side and so will refrain from getting a selfie with him. lol.
Rex Douglas @ #476 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 3:27 pm
Rex Douglas @ #484 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 3:35 pm
I am so happy that you rise above all this petty partisanship, with you stunning objectivity.
What a shining beacon you are for all the rest of us partisans.
Guardian Transcript of Frydenberg Faine interview was very heavy going for Josh, Jon never let up.
Interesting question Albo raises.
Has any pollster asked it before? 🙂
For me.
Next Newspoll…..53/47
Election result………..52/48 🙂
Pedant @ Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 5:00 pm
A very stupid move by Dulles (who was not a very outside of the box thinker). China sulked for the next 20 years and America got handed the shitshow that was the Vietnam war.
There comes a time when a political party no longer deserves even token respect. Messing with a normally bipartisan foreign policy stance on China was shameful. And he knew it.
Labor’s gloves are off:
“As long as Labor has existed we’ve been opposed by the vested interests from the top end of town.
None more so than Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp.
Every single election they’ll say and do anything to stop Labor from winning.
This election is no different. Their gutter tabloid attacks are proof there’s no level these people won’t stoop to in protecting their billionaire bosses.
Well we don’t have Rupert Murdoch’s billions. We don’t have his newspapers. But we do have you.
We can beat their tabloid smear campaign, but to do that, we need a massive effort. Let’s use people power to beat the billionaires. We need you to dig deep today.
Donate to beat them
Murdoch’s media empire wants to turn Australia into America. They don’t want tax loopholes closed. They don’t want us to end their tax havens.
And they will stop at nothing to prevent it.
These are desperate attacks from small men with small ideas.
These newspapers try to tear down our leaders and tear down our ideas, every time. It’s a deliberate strategy to keep conservatives in power. We need to fight back to stop their plans to do here what they did to the US….
Wayne Swan”
Put me down for 53 to Labor.
That Daily Telegraph attack on Mr Shorten’s mum was a boost for Labor.
Not just in the moment but also in acknowledging the Murdoch bias to journalists.
That will have an ongoing impact on coverage as well.
I do not know if the comments of the Westpac Chair, Lindsay Maxstead, have been the subject of any analysis.
Lindsay, remember, opposed a Royal Commission saying the calling of same may hurt the reputation of Australian banks globally.
Well, he has now commented on the fall out from the Royal Commission (virtually) saying the bank is more aware and rigorous now (from what and where exactly?)
The upshot has been hits to the bottom line, being compensation costs, response costs and the cost of tighter business conditions.
And the result of this is a need to cut operating costs – read sack staff – to maintain profit.
As with NAB which has sacked 6,000 and reduced its Dividend (will our recipients of Franking Credits wail for the government to compensate them for the reduced dividend – and the reduced hand out for tax not paid? And the continuing fall in the Share Price?).
No doubt the other banks are going down the same track – retrenching staff.
But, Lindsay Maxstead remains untouched.
It is the staff who are paying the price.
Next Newspoll, ER and Ipsos all 52/48.
Election night final result 52.7/47.3
Final 2PP (weeks later!) 52.2/47.8
guytaur @ #584 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 5:19 pm
Declared election TPP?
Like Alpine Blizzard* I feel I should put my guess in too.
Final Newspoll 53:47 to ALP
Count on night 52:48
Final TPP: 51.4:49.6
*I used to post here many years ago…
Outside left @ #577 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 5:15 pm
He could put you on his shoulder. 😀
Nah. I’ll give you $3, not a cent more.
I was going to say that, Late Riser, and then I thought, we don’t have $2 or $1 notes anymore, so I better update it for the 21st century! 😆
LR
Yes.
We’re heading out for some family time now, but I’ll be back later tonight to look for any accumulated guesses. 🙂
LR
Have a good time. Thank you again for the recording of guesses/predictions
Its really appreciated
No. She is supposed to be from the South Coast. My guess would be she plays bowls at the Yank bowling club.
And just looking at the last few comments.
Labor is calling out Murdoch, courtesy of an “own goal” by Murdoch.
That is the benefit.
The overreach of Murdoch has allowed Labor to frame the narrative re Murdoch
From Shorten refusing to meet with Murdoch – and now the clarification as to why supported as it is by referencing comments of Shorten re his Deceased Mother.
Hopefully this is the death of Murdoch and his influence.
Murdoch can concentrate on attempting to keep his great “mate” (because they do not have mates only people who suit their purposes) as President of the USA.
No doubt there is a very real prospect that Trump and Murdoch are again manipulating the Share Markets courtesy of the “Trade War” rhetoric, seeing prices drop courtesy of Trump’s tweets so a buying opportunity.
So are they buying a manipulated and orchestrated drop?
Look at how many Trillions have been wiped of Global Equity Markets.
For every seller there is a buyer.
The Liberals.
Vested interest and self interest.
Without exception.
Gareth @ 5:17 pm
“A very stupid move by Dulles (who was not a very outside of the box thinker).”
I remember it was said of Dulles that “his speech was slow, but it more than kept pace with his thought”.