Odds and sods: week four

Labor firms in its favouritism on the question of party to form government, but the movement is mostly the other way in individual seat markets.

There has been a fair bit of movement in bookmakers’ odds for the election over the last week and a bit, first in favour of the Coalition and then against, with the leaders’ debate on Friday night appearing to provide the catalyst for the change. At the time of the last of these posts, the Coalition was near its peak at $3.30 with Labor at $1.32, but now Labor is in to $1.22 and the Coalition out to $4.30.

The most notable change on the seat markets is that there are now seven seats that are at evens, where there were none last week. As a result, the Liberals are no longer clear favourites in Capricornia and Bass, and Labor no longer are in Dawson, Leichhardt, Braddon, Deakin and Stirling. Most of these were rated very close to begin with, although there have been reasonably substantial movements in Braddon (Labor $1.40 and Liberal $2.75 last week, now $1.90 each), Leichhardt (Labor $1.70 and LNP $2.60 last week, now $1.87 each), Dawson (Labor $1.57 and LNP $2.25 last week, now both $1.87). The Coalition now have the edge in Indi, where they are in from $2.15 to $1.80 with the independent out from $1.77 to $2.00.

Other movements of note: a much tighter race is now anticipated in Liberal-held Robertson, where the Liberals are in from $3.90 to $2.05 and Labor are out from $1.21 to $1.70, and the Country Liberals’ odds have been cut from $6.00 to $3.75 in Lingiari, with Labor out from $1.12 to $1.22. Conversely, there has been movement back to Labor in Solomon, where they are in from $1.50 to $1.30, with the Country Liberals out from $2.45 to $3.25. There has been movement almost across the board to the Coalition in Queensland, leaving Labor still favoured in Bonner, Dickson and Flynn, but by narrower margins.

With seven seats now tied up, and one moving from independent Coalition, Ladbrokes now has Labor clear favourites in 79 seats (down five), the Coalition in 60 (down one), and others in five (down one). As always, you can find the odds listed at the bottom right of each electorate page in the Poll Bludger federal election guide. Another thing you can find is the latest daily instalment of Seat du jour, today dealing with Chisholm, in the post immediately below this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Odds and sods: week four”

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  2. Whose idea was it to limit these ‘debates’ to the duopoly anyway ?

    Pretty sure it isn’t, it is open to any party who has formed Govt in the last 40 years and any party with a real chance of doing it this time. So yeah not every whinger and extremist freak, but all the serious contenders.

  4. Shorten gets a point on the climate change question.

    Dock him half a point for suggesting rugby jackass should keep his job (only half because it’s possible that position might actually play well with wavering Coalition voters), and Shorten leads 0.5 to 0.

  6. Hilarious, constant denunciations of superficial political culture and then both leaders are simply stood up in a reasonably neutral format like this and it’s “boo, this is boring”

  9. @pbweather

    Absolutely chucking down here and I’m in transit.

    No sign of stopping, the road has already flooded over the footpath and we’re getting quite a nice swell being generated by the passing traffic.

    I don’t think I’ll make my intended destination! 🙂

  11. Scott Morrison lied again , saying he doesn’t throw money away , yet he threw $185 million to christmas island for nothing

  15. I don’t really understand why Labor agreed to this debate. They won the first two. They should have told Morrison to stick it.

  18. If the 3 “debates” are worth 1 point each then score currently Bill 2.5 ScoMo 0.5.

    Really, “debates” are an opportunity demanded by the press to create opportunities for the leaders to completely fwark up in an election losing way.

    Neither has Bill or ScoMo has fwarked up in any major way.

    Problem for ScoMo here is that Shorten had the obvious upper hand in the first two debates,left a good impression, particularly with his base, and hasn’t “lost” this one.

    ScoMo needs to be seen to convincingly win at something to shift ” non base” votes his way. Just not happening people.

  19. Was about to make a comment about how no one here seems to want to be there but then Shorten out of nowhere started to wind up… might yet get interesting.

  22. Odds and Sods – the Coalition have blown out to $6 on Betfair exchange. (last trade)

    And on Sportsbet they have gone from 3.85 this afternoon to 4.25, Labor back in to 1.19

  28. Confessions says:
    Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 8:22 pm

    Are you surprised, given his response to cancer sufferers is to get private health insurance?
    ———————————————————

    No

  35. This format is shit. The sky news format debates and their compare are much better. I hate sky, but that conclusion is pretty clear. Shame that wasn’t the debate that featured on prime time free to air in the last week of the debate.

  37. And when you grow the economy, you protect your budget and maintain your surplus.

    Whether the federal government runs a deficit or a surplus depends on the spending and saving decisions of millions of people in the domestic private sector, as well as the external sector (the rest of the world).

    If the external sector collectively wants to net save the Australian Government’s currency (i.e. spend fewer Australian dollars than it earns), then the only way for the federal government to run a surplus is for the domestic private sector to run a deficit. The domestic private sector cannot sustain deficits indefinitely, and in current circumstances they are very unlikely to run a deficit because wages are stagnating, employment is precarious for many people, gross household debt is already at a record high, and property prices are falling.

    The Australian Government can sustain deficits indefinitely. It is the scorekeeper of the Australian dollar. It can’t run out of points to award. The constraint on its spending is the availability of real resources for sale in its currency.

    Right now, the macroeconomic circumstances demand a larger federal government deficit. Not idiotic and meaningless promises to deliver surpluses.

  47. “This format is shit”

    I don’t feel that strongly about this. But…i would have rather seen questions coming from other journo’s.

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