There has been a fair bit of movement in bookmakers’ odds for the election over the last week and a bit, first in favour of the Coalition and then against, with the leaders’ debate on Friday night appearing to provide the catalyst for the change. At the time of the last of these posts, the Coalition was near its peak at $3.30 with Labor at $1.32, but now Labor is in to $1.22 and the Coalition out to $4.30.
The most notable change on the seat markets is that there are now seven seats that are at evens, where there were none last week. As a result, the Liberals are no longer clear favourites in Capricornia and Bass, and Labor no longer are in Dawson, Leichhardt, Braddon, Deakin and Stirling. Most of these were rated very close to begin with, although there have been reasonably substantial movements in Braddon (Labor $1.40 and Liberal $2.75 last week, now $1.90 each), Leichhardt (Labor $1.70 and LNP $2.60 last week, now $1.87 each), Dawson (Labor $1.57 and LNP $2.25 last week, now both $1.87). The Coalition now have the edge in Indi, where they are in from $2.15 to $1.80 with the independent out from $1.77 to $2.00.
Other movements of note: a much tighter race is now anticipated in Liberal-held Robertson, where the Liberals are in from $3.90 to $2.05 and Labor are out from $1.21 to $1.70, and the Country Liberals’ odds have been cut from $6.00 to $3.75 in Lingiari, with Labor out from $1.12 to $1.22. Conversely, there has been movement back to Labor in Solomon, where they are in from $1.50 to $1.30, with the Country Liberals out from $2.45 to $3.25. There has been movement almost across the board to the Coalition in Queensland, leaving Labor still favoured in Bonner, Dickson and Flynn, but by narrower margins.
With seven seats now tied up, and one moving from independent Coalition, Ladbrokes now has Labor clear favourites in 79 seats (down five), the Coalition in 60 (down one), and others in five (down one). As always, you can find the odds listed at the bottom right of each electorate page in the Poll Bludger federal election guide. Another thing you can find is the latest daily instalment of Seat du jour, today dealing with Chisholm, in the post immediately below this one.
I knew Sabra would fluff it.
Blobbit says:
“The right have no idea of earning their wealth.”
And a lifetime centreline recipient does? Almost the entirety of Australia’s huge welfare, pubic education, infrastructure and health expenditure is contributed by upper middle and high income earners. For a start anyone earning less than $100k is most likely contributing net $0 after lifetime transfers and share of costs.
So we have to start this discussion by looking if there is any validity in asking the end that funds the country to fund even more the part that doesn’t, especially when the part that doesn’t already experiences a very high global standard of living, and has more than enough except where they make their own poor decisions they are responsible for.
“Kids inheriting money involves what effort on their part? …it’s pretty much the definition of unearned wealth.”
It took the effort of their parents and a parents willingness to tuck away for their family rather than spend, waste and mismanage.
The very rich who inherited large wealth, which are almost certainly the ones you mean who “never learned the value of hard work, or earned nothing” are not the ones your tax will reach. See the UK/US graph I linked earlier. They will find the loopholes and/or leave.
Citizenship in the Caribbean and smaller Eastern European states can be purchased for as little as $150k. Going to be able to enforce an inheritance tax on offshore wealth held by a Gibraltar citizen? NO!
You will only tax the upper-middle class and prevent their intergenerational wealth transfer, people that do know the meaning of work and sacrifice for their kids. You won’t touch the rich.
Societies that aim for confiscatory regimes end up with less: you may ask ex-citizens of the USSR and the current masses fleeing Venezuela. You can also look at the graphs supplied and realise that none of the super-billionaires supposed to be captured by UK and USA inheritance taxes are seeing them touch their wealth. (If they were the $ raised would be far higher).
Couple of the questions thus far have suited Morrison – boats and the tax question. Climate change now – suits Shorten a lot more.
I think Morrison handled the Folau issue better.
imacca @ #945 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 8:05 pm
Yeah, but he flubbed it badly by suggesting that the rugby guy should get to keep his job.
Scotty lies on Climate Change
Whose idea was it to have the last debate at the National Press Club anyway.
i cant watch either
what was the boats reference?
Yeah Sabra Lane is a total fail. Someone said earlier Basil Zemplis was better, but David Speers is the gold standard as far as the 3 leader debates have gone so far this campaign.
Actually, i am reasonably happy with the way Sabra Lane is handling this. Whatever…Shorten well up this encounter. Not as well as in the town hall / QANDA format…but this wicket not troubling him any.
Scout says:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 8:05 pm
Can’t watch the debate, relying on PBs commentary
So far seems scomuck doing well?
———————
No Morrison is worse in this format
Lies and more lies from Morrison.
Oh good, it’s not just me. 😀
This is a nil all draw
Worst, deadest, most meaningless debate EVER!
Bill does look tired. It happens when you have to deal with crap from Murdoch every day as well as go on the hustings.
Cheers Scott
nath says:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 8:07 pm
I think Morrison handled the Folau issue better.
——————————————-
Yet Morrison did not defend gays at all
Ruby is kinda like the Malcolm Turnbull of programming languages
Scotty repeating the rooftop solar lies again.
Scott
says:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 8:09 pm
nath says:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 8:07 pm
I think Morrison handled the Folau issue better.
——————————————-
Yet Morrison did not defend gays at all
________________________
No he didn’t, but he let it stand on contract law, which is fair enough in my book.
William
Normally the Press Club has a variety of questions from a range of journos. Having Sabra as the sole one is boring
sprocket_ @ #966 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 8:09 pm
Yep.
Shorten seems to have aged a decade in a few weeks. He looks resigned like a latter day Kim Sleazby.
Observer
What I don’t get is the illusion that if you manage to accumulate wealth that must be because you’re a clever, hard working, deserving person.
There is a pervasive religion that holds that there is no such thing as luck. Its what I hate about the conservatives and their “I’m alright, fuck you” attitude.
Tax has hurt Labor – it has tried to be cute with coming up changes it believed would only hurt Liberal voters and is now caught up explaining complicated details like franking credits.
It should have been upfront and said we need to raise tax to pay for x, y and Z.
Its a lot like being for Adani until you were against Adani.
And they wonder why their primary vote is only 35%….
ScoMo has a much more straightforward position in this debate.
Zeh
Not following closely, but Ruby is crap in the enterprise
Boring and useless debate.
we’re the windiest continent? not sure about that.
Income tax redistributes income and allows the government to reduce income inequality. A wealth tax would do the same thing for wealth inequality. Income taxes are capitalist? Wealth taxes are communist. Good to know. Must see if the communists are standing in the Senate.
Shorten isn’t making the most of opportunities to repudiate lies.
For instance Morrison says if you subsidise something you put the price up. If I were Shorten I would have said “you mean, like, private health insurance?”.
Scotty doesn’t care about the destruction of the planet
nil all draw on pb means a clear morrison victory
Whose idea was it to limit these ‘debates’ to the duopoly anyway ?
Sorry, but if people on here are calling it nil all then it probably means Morrison is winning.
I don’t subscribe to that, though. The bloke hasn’t a clue. Shorten is warming into it, he usually starts show and gets better, he’s started already.
BK @ #962 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 8:09 pm
Truly awful.
Lol and a classic zinger.
Charlatan’s argument
Boys go home and have a good sleep,you both need it.
Morrison should be made to explain where is the missing $550 promise would make Australians better off each year, from july 1 2014
BK
I’ll second that motion.
Bill now nailing it on cost of inaction
Sabra didn’t declare there were Government ministers in the audience.
“Andy Murray says:
“Land tax, wealth taxes. It works for the Swiss”
Nobody should use Switzerland as a policy example for anything, least of all in comparison to Australia. The Swiss economy is massively propped up by its huge, and hugely profitable banking industry. Why is it so big and profitable? Because of secrecy, Swiss banks act as the world’s money launderer. Read Michael Porter’s “Competitive Advantage of Nations” for a rundown on how having plentiful cheap capital (no interest paid!) has given Swiss industries a huge advantage. Swiss banks hold wealth equivalent to over 400% of GDP. Assets are worth double the Aussie super sector, despite having one fifth of our population.
Scotty’s left arm is paralysed it would appear
“Did Bill just say that religious freedom was more important than contract law?”
I’ll have to read the transcript closely, however I think a summary of his points were:
1. Religious freedoms important
2. Workers Rights are really important and he doesn’t want to see Falou lose his jobs.
3. On the other hand these type of comments on social media do real harm.
4. He hopes for a resolution that accommodates both sides.
5. Social media isn’t a great medium for public figures to get all shouty about hateful ideas.
I could have missed something. Maybe I’m parsing Shorten through rose tinted glasses, but that’s how I took his answer.
Not watching the debate – but my money is on Sabra Lane finishing the ‘debate’ with a question to both candidates about their mums, seeing as it it Mother’s Day this Sunday and very topical today.
This will enable Morrison to get some of that #mymum vibe on his side on what has been a bad day for the Murdoch media and their political subsidiaries.
I think Scotty has not fared well in this debate. He has no answers just platitudes, and when he was confronted on his platitudes, he gave us McShoutyface.
Not what I said Lukey boy! But you know that.
Election should be this Saturday,there isn’t anything more to be heard.