Odds and sods: week four

Labor firms in its favouritism on the question of party to form government, but the movement is mostly the other way in individual seat markets.

There has been a fair bit of movement in bookmakers’ odds for the election over the last week and a bit, first in favour of the Coalition and then against, with the leaders’ debate on Friday night appearing to provide the catalyst for the change. At the time of the last of these posts, the Coalition was near its peak at $3.30 with Labor at $1.32, but now Labor is in to $1.22 and the Coalition out to $4.30.

The most notable change on the seat markets is that there are now seven seats that are at evens, where there were none last week. As a result, the Liberals are no longer clear favourites in Capricornia and Bass, and Labor no longer are in Dawson, Leichhardt, Braddon, Deakin and Stirling. Most of these were rated very close to begin with, although there have been reasonably substantial movements in Braddon (Labor $1.40 and Liberal $2.75 last week, now $1.90 each), Leichhardt (Labor $1.70 and LNP $2.60 last week, now $1.87 each), Dawson (Labor $1.57 and LNP $2.25 last week, now both $1.87). The Coalition now have the edge in Indi, where they are in from $2.15 to $1.80 with the independent out from $1.77 to $2.00.

Other movements of note: a much tighter race is now anticipated in Liberal-held Robertson, where the Liberals are in from $3.90 to $2.05 and Labor are out from $1.21 to $1.70, and the Country Liberals’ odds have been cut from $6.00 to $3.75 in Lingiari, with Labor out from $1.12 to $1.22. Conversely, there has been movement back to Labor in Solomon, where they are in from $1.50 to $1.30, with the Country Liberals out from $2.45 to $3.25. There has been movement almost across the board to the Coalition in Queensland, leaving Labor still favoured in Bonner, Dickson and Flynn, but by narrower margins.

With seven seats now tied up, and one moving from independent Coalition, Ladbrokes now has Labor clear favourites in 79 seats (down five), the Coalition in 60 (down one), and others in five (down one). As always, you can find the odds listed at the bottom right of each electorate page in the Poll Bludger federal election guide. Another thing you can find is the latest daily instalment of Seat du jour, today dealing with Chisholm, in the post immediately below this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Odds and sods: week four”

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  1. It’s hard for Bill to say who is the Home Affairs Minister when he intends to disband this Dutton overreach failure

  2. Not following closely, but Ruby is crap in the enterprise

    “Not following closely” is sage (SAGE?) advice for IT fads.
    If it’s still there in a few years, it might be worth looking at.

  3. Faark me dead. Last question and Sabra goes full Womens Weekly. Useless waste of space. No wonder she’s he head of the CPG: they best that rabble have. Sigh.

  4. Hmm!

    Paul KarpVerified account @Paul_Karp
    34m34 minutes ago
    Birmo and Corman in the front row looked to each other, checked, then turned back to Morrison to shake heads “no” to Sabra saying leadership team considered threatening to pass Labors tax changes. @AmyRemeikis #leadersdebate

  5. Almost the entirety of Australia’s huge welfare, pubic education, infrastructure and health expenditure is contributed by upper middle and high income earners.

    Completely untrue.

    The federal government funds the non-government sector.

    The non-government sector DOES NOT fund the federal government.

    The non-government sector provides real goods and services to the government in order to earn the currency that it needs to pay its taxes.

    Low and middle income earners make an immense contribution to the production of goods and services. It is not true to say that upper middle and high income earners are making a larger contribution to real output or to the quality of our society.

    Plenty of highly paid people are doing jobs that serve no public purpose, or even worse, cause harm to society.

    Upper middle and high income earners would be able to accomplish very little without the contributions to society made by low and middle income earners.

  6. Blue Report: 10 short days to bliss.

    Bluey notes that Price was absent on World Extinction Day, cementing her place as Australia’s worst ever Environment Minister. Despite Morrison’s uncomfortable promise that she would comment, she has not. Bluey reckons that Price is the world’s first Minister for Purdah, Omerta, and Witness protection.
    Instead Morrison came out today to double up by whinging about sort of the excess Green tape that were not enough to stop the death of a million fish, the death of half the Reef, the extinction of the Bramble Quay Melomys, and the extinction of the Southern Star Finch. Bluey reckons that Morrison could not give a flying fuck for the environment and that in fact that Morrison hates it. Bluey reckons that Morrison is lucky that the Greens have locked up the environmental vote where it will not hurt the Liberals.

    Di Natali was interviewed, Bluey suspects, on 7.30. Bluey notes that Di Natale spent most of his time talking about how Shorten should suck up to Di Natale. Bluey reckons that the Greens did not receive enough oral gratification as babies.

    Bluey notes that the majors managed to hang onto all their remaining candidates for another 24 hours. Not to be left out in the same old same old stakes, the Greens have sacked one candidate for racist comments (Jay someone) and that another (Hanna), a coconut tosser, should probably go down the same racist chute as well. Meanwhile a third Greens (McCallum) is whinging that she might toss in the campaign towel because no-one is listening to the Greens. Uh huh. Just what Bluey has been saying.

    Bluey regrets that Wong did not take the opportunity to kick Birmingham up the arse for being yet another lying Trumpian Liberal sleazebag act. Still, at least, she will not need to wash her hand with disinfectant.

    Bluey watched part of the debate between FitzGibbon and Littleproud today. Bluey reckons that FitzGibbon has improved over time and that he held his own with Littleproud, but that FitzG did miss out on the opportunity to mention that Littleproud’s electorate is one of the big 10 electorates when it comes to clearing. Bluey reckons that Littleproud has his eyes on McCormack’s job after the election and that the four-way bloodbath of McKenzie, Littleproud, Joyce and McCormack should be a ripper starting in 11 days time.

    Bluey reckons that whoever survives out of Porter, Seselja, Hunt, Hastie, Molan, Abetz, Dutton, Morrison, Abbott, and Christensen should have a lot of dirty fun slagging it out for LOTO in 11 day’s time.

    Bluey notes that early in the campaign the Liberals were sledging a possible Labor government about the glorious necessity of hanging on to Ambassador Hockey because Hockey has such a wonderful in with Trump. Plays golf with him and lets him win. Now Hockey has stabbed them all in the back. He is a quitter. No ticker. Bluey wonders whether there is a leaning opportunity that has been made available for Hockey.

    Bluey notes that Hawke and Keating have buried the hatchet and that Labor is the most united team ever. Fantastic stuff. Bluey did not know that Hawke was a Knight Cordon of the White Elephant.

    Bluey reckons that the grubby bastard attack on Shorten’s Mum was a dreadful over reach by News Corps and Bluey predicts that Shorten will make remarkable gains on PPM and the like next Monday. Not that any of this affects Bluey’s prediction of 8-9 seat net gain by Labor on the 18th.

    Bluey doesn’t normally pay much attention to betting markets. He reckons that GG’s aphorism is apt ‘Never bet on anything that talks’. But Bluey would rather have the Labor odds than the Coalition odds. And, as ever, Bluey reckons that the trend is your frend.

    Bluey notes that the Morrison stunt-a-thon has demonstrated that, when it comes to pouring beer on his head, driving a truck, sinking a pool ball, or hitting a ping pong ball, Morrison is good only for pouring beer on his head. Except that that was a waste of good beer.

    Debate outcomes. Bluey reckons Shorten once again shaded Morrison. Bluey notes that there is one clear distinction between Shorten and Morrison among the many that are notable. Shorten has wit and his flashes of humour defuse many a tense situation. Morrison has none. He confuses sarcastic mirking with humour.

    Bluey notes that Morrison was caught out lying about the budget surplus being real rather than a projection, that franking credits withdrawal is a new tax when it is no. Bluey notes Morrison several times generated mocking laughter in the audience. Apart from that Morrison repeated endlessly his talking points.

    Sabra Lane did a professional job.

    Bluey reckons that there are 728,000 votes out of 1,400,000 million prepoll votes on a 2PP basis in the kitty for Labor already!

    Today was a clear win for Labor. Labor 2 points. Liberals 0 points.
    Cumulative score: Labor 22 points; Liberals 4 points.

  7. Nicholas
    Plenty of highly paid people are doing jobs that serve no public purpose, or even worse, cause harm to society.
    Upper middle and high income earners would be able to accomplish very little without the contributions to society made by low and middle income earners.
    that’s a really good point. I worked with someone once in an office who was paid big money, talked fast and walked fast, shifted as much work as he could to underlings until it all came undone. But that was a few years on 250k plus! what a waste!

  8. Speers says Scotty didn’t do enough to turn around his previous two debate losses, and that Shorten won this debate 😮

  9. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 8:33 pm

    That debate needed RDN or an indy like Phelps.

    Which one of them is going to be running the Country after the 18th?

  10. I’ll call it a narrow Morrison win.

    Shorten overreached with the snark at the end, and then Morrison was able to seize upon it, fabricate an insult against a female MP and her family (which Shorten never actually made), and then bash Shorten with it. Overshadowed Shorten’s strength on climate, and then there wasn’t enough time afterwards for a full recovery.

  11. Bushfire Bill if there is a dead heat then it’s down to each man’s oratorical skills. I personally think Shorten came out better in the end due to better policies and more of the vision thing. Morrison didn’t really come across very well to me at all.

  12. a r

    What? Which debate were you watching. And if you recall, Morrison brought up Kelly ODwyer and shouty aggressive Morrison came out. Shorten effectively highlighted the rats leaving a sinking ship.

  13. Sky orcs……
    Laura Jayes-Both went well. Shorten narrow win.
    Speers -Scrott did not do enough to make much difference.Shorten will be pleased.
    Chris Kenny – Noted it “was all about Labor policy”. Scrott had “substance” unlike Bill of course.
    Conroy- Shock horror he liked Shorten . So much so “Bill has his mojo back” 🙂

  14. If Shorten were a passionate and skilled orator then he would have trounced him, but as everyone has already acceded to those aren’t his strengths, and not the qualities most required for competent government now anyway. It is what it is. I actually thought Morrison would have done better in this format but I think he’s losing the energy and I was surprised to see that he didn’t come across as very confident at all.

  15. Shorten does have a vision for a different Australia.
    Morrison has a vision for an Australia that is the same as now.
    We have a real choice.

  16. Nicholas
    “Completely untrue. The federal government funds the non-government sector. Plenty of highly paid people are doing jobs that serve no public purpose, or even worse, cause harm to society.”

    I am with you in an ‘esoteric sense’, but the discussion has been about ‘reality on the plane most people understand it’. If I were to address issues on the plane you are here no-one else would even if it is very much reality!

    Both the rich and the poor can do harm to society, contribute relatively more or less.
    In pure financial accounting terms, ignoring how money enters the economy and the function of government in its creation and destruction re: the mechanisms available to it.. we use taxes as a proxy for contributions to government expenditure and the persons receipt of services and funding from the government as a proxy for their take (along with their share of shared services).

    Most of us are comfortable saying a rich man who pays no taxes and but employees a lot of people manufacturing widgets he designed is still letting the community down.

    Similarly so too is a lifetime Centrelink recipient who avoids work and takes drugs.

    We don’t have the tools to get into the nitty gritty of whether an “advertising salesman” who pays a lot of tax is actually contributing less to society than the artist on the dole who volunteers at a soup kitchen.

    We can qualitatively speak on such things but not quantitatively (at least not without numerous assumptions & extrapolation and enough years of study by which time the conclusion would be out of date before it is reached).

    In terms of the way the general public and mainstream assess contributions I was completely correct:

  17. Lars Von Trier says:
    Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 8:39 pm

    RDN would have brought a progressive perspective to the debate. He had to be stopped as a result.

    What do reckon his majority will be Saturday week?

  18. Betting odds across betting agencies drifting for the LNP and ‘Shorten’ing for Labor after the debate. See what I did there.

    LNP out to $4.5 on BetEasy and Bet365, $4.25 on Sportsbet, $5 on Ladbrokes and $5.8 on betfair

  19. Many thanks for the running commentary. OH has TV on Masterchef where they are doing team cooking for farmers and truckies delivering hay.

    When Labor is elected, perhaps Speers will move to ABC and Lane (along with similar presenters) go to Sky.

  20. Gilbert says Shortens emotional news conference today was the turning point in the campaign, the pivotal moment. 😮 😮 😮

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