Odds and sods: week four

Labor firms in its favouritism on the question of party to form government, but the movement is mostly the other way in individual seat markets.

There has been a fair bit of movement in bookmakers’ odds for the election over the last week and a bit, first in favour of the Coalition and then against, with the leaders’ debate on Friday night appearing to provide the catalyst for the change. At the time of the last of these posts, the Coalition was near its peak at $3.30 with Labor at $1.32, but now Labor is in to $1.22 and the Coalition out to $4.30.

The most notable change on the seat markets is that there are now seven seats that are at evens, where there were none last week. As a result, the Liberals are no longer clear favourites in Capricornia and Bass, and Labor no longer are in Dawson, Leichhardt, Braddon, Deakin and Stirling. Most of these were rated very close to begin with, although there have been reasonably substantial movements in Braddon (Labor $1.40 and Liberal $2.75 last week, now $1.90 each), Leichhardt (Labor $1.70 and LNP $2.60 last week, now $1.87 each), Dawson (Labor $1.57 and LNP $2.25 last week, now both $1.87). The Coalition now have the edge in Indi, where they are in from $2.15 to $1.80 with the independent out from $1.77 to $2.00.

Other movements of note: a much tighter race is now anticipated in Liberal-held Robertson, where the Liberals are in from $3.90 to $2.05 and Labor are out from $1.21 to $1.70, and the Country Liberals’ odds have been cut from $6.00 to $3.75 in Lingiari, with Labor out from $1.12 to $1.22. Conversely, there has been movement back to Labor in Solomon, where they are in from $1.50 to $1.30, with the Country Liberals out from $2.45 to $3.25. There has been movement almost across the board to the Coalition in Queensland, leaving Labor still favoured in Bonner, Dickson and Flynn, but by narrower margins.

With seven seats now tied up, and one moving from independent Coalition, Ladbrokes now has Labor clear favourites in 79 seats (down five), the Coalition in 60 (down one), and others in five (down one). As always, you can find the odds listed at the bottom right of each electorate page in the Poll Bludger federal election guide. Another thing you can find is the latest daily instalment of Seat du jour, today dealing with Chisholm, in the post immediately below this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Odds and sods: week four”

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  1. ** repeated from old thread as WB pulled the pin as I was posting **

    I was surprised (and disappointed) to note that Bludgertrack is now showing Boothby as a good chance of a Liberal retain.

    This seems to be based on a baseline swing to Labor of only 0.8% in SA, offset in Boothby by a positive 0.5% “sophomore* effect” for Nicole Flint – giving her a projected 52.6% TPP.

    (* NB – I hate these American terms!)

    I would love to know where the 0.8% comes from (WB?). I presume some unpublished state data.

    Nicole Flint replaced Andrew Southcott at the last election, who had been known locally as the “invisible politician”. It could well be that she got some benefit from replacing a deadweight incumbent (rather than losing a personal following) – so I am not sure this election will see a benefit.

    Also what isn’t factored in is the fact that she was first to sign the petition for no confidence in Turnbull, is now seen as a RWNJ (which wasn’t well known in 2016) and has faced a vigorous “Get up” campaign this time as a result.

    I know the Libs have poured lots of resources into Boothby over this campaign.

    Hopefully she goes.

  2. Presumably a shortening (heh) for Labor in the overall market but a decrease in the implied seat gains for Labor is a reflection of greater certainty or confidence in the implied outcomes as we approach election day.

  3. A lot of the voterchoice commentary doesn’t really inspire much confidence in their methodology but I don’t know if it’s fair.

    If one believes their polling it shows both the ALP and Coalition primaries at quite low levels – the ALP primary at roughly the levels shown in traditional national polls.

  4. What’s wrong with the methodology? She gives a lot more information than you get from the traditional pollsters.

  5. I suspect the other pollsters are herding around rupes pollster. Indeed their uniformity makes me suspicious rather than confident

  6. Although the primary figures are not too different from the other pollsters would you accept?

    Some of the minor commentary just gives me some doubts – post hoc fiddling with figures “some of them are still insisting they are voting for parties that won’t be on their ballot paper (at both House and Senate level). These have been re-coded to either a previous voting intention (if applicable) or not sure to try and lift the accuracy in the results”

    Mention of some voting that I wouldn’t at all expect to see reflected on a large scale (below the line voting for Lucy Gichuhi for instance) leads me to query how representative the sample is too. It could be the case that these concerns aren’t justified.

  7. antonbruckner11

    This is from the voter choice “Wave 9” commentary:

    Also remember that the panel over samples cranky voters who may change their vote. The study is about choice, how people decide who to vote for, so the entire study is designed to attract those voters, and is not as appealing to stable, loyal voters. While we do adjust for this, it is a design feature, not a flaw; it allows the panel to act as a kind of political early warning system, signalling when the more flighty voters are on the move – and why – before a normal poll or focus group.

  8. Kristina Keneally

    Bluntly – the @dailytelegraph is a disgrace.
    Today they use @billshortenmp’s mum’s life as a political weapon to attack Bill.
    Seriously – it’s a new low.

    Bill has shared Ann’s story many times in this campaign – here he does again – facebook.com/46499886353668…

  9. Burgey

    Regarding this:
    Daily Terror

    Shorten’s heartfelt tale missing vital fact
    OMISSION Bill Shorten’s live TV monologue about his mother’s ambitions to be a lawyer being thwarted by her working-class roots was hailed as an election-winning moment — but he omitted the fact that she went on to enjoy an illustrious career as a barrister.

    It’s about the journey you dipsticks!

  10. Bakunin. So what? All pollsters make adjustments. She is frank about that. The rest tell you nothing. Newspoll hides adjustments

  11. I must say, watching the Q and A I did think that Bill misspoke in his ending monologue regarding his mother’s backstory. I also thought at 10.30pm, after the high octane Brisbane launch the day before, and touring Sydney’s Western Suburbs on Monday, before flying to Melbourne and not missing a beat in 60 minutes of questioning before 800 people, including Tony Jones numerous attempts at the gotcha moment, I also thought – by Jingo this guy’s got some stamina!

    As for the Murdoch gutter tabloids, I am disappointed that they didn’t wait till Mother’s Day next Sunday before slagging Bill Shorten’s dead mother.

  12. Anybody with half a brain could work this out; it’s good to see they have come together to point it out; their legacy lives on but it fighting each other they were not getting credit for what they did.

    The economy is Labor’s – Labor’s rejection of the closed economic model of an economy ring-fenced by tariffs with a managed exchange rate, a sclerotic financial market and centrally arbitrated wages bequeathed us in 1983.


    Not one of these path-breaking structural changes was delivered by the Liberal Party. The only reform delivered by the Liberal Party – the Howard government’s goods and services tax – did not change individual or corporate behaviour, as the above-mentioned structural reforms so dramatically did. Almost 30 years of strong compound economic growth has produced what you would expect it to produce – a massive increase in national wealth. And that wealth has seen a 70 per cent increase in real wages since the reforms of the late 1980s and early to mid-1990s.


  13. Nasty and very, very stoopid. Why not create some sympathy for bill shorten you nongs. Poor darlings are just lashing out in anger

  14. That NYT article captions one of its photos thus:

    Shelly Beach in Manly, a suburb of Sydney. It is part of the Warringah electoral district, represented by Prime Minister Tony Abbott.

  15. No surprises the DT would attack a candidate through their family, they will go as low as needed to try and strike another kill Bill moment.
    They intentionally missed the intent of the story to try and strike a blow with this front page attack
    But again, these cowards will fail.
    But it does show how desperate the MSM are becoming. Shorten’s lead is beginning to bite where it hurts, the panic is starting and with the panic will come worse kill Bill stories.
    Brace yourselves, I suspect this is just the start of the race to the bottom by the media.

  16. The “Daily Terrorgraph” shows that the LNP’s supporters in the media will stop at nothing to attack ALP leaders.

    We saw it with Rudd and Albo dressed as Nazis.

    Imagine if they went the same way on Morrison’s hypocrisy from when he gave his “maiden speech” to his actions as a Minister.

    The media must be held accountable for their failure to report fairly and equally.

  17. For some time now its been clear this election is about our fragile environment..

    Forget about: “retiree tax!!”, ”housing tax!!”, ”$387billion of new Labor taxes!!” ..

    Forget about: “KILL BILL!! ..LABOR BAD!! ..UNIONS BOO!!..

    The only issue that genuinely scares people is GLOBAL WARMING and its increasingly obvious negative effects on our environment: longer periods of hot weather ..sea levels rising ..more extreme adverse weather effects, etc, etc..

    ..and just yesterday, we heard what must be the most frightening and disastrous effect of global warming to date: the mass extinction of up to a million species of our natural fauna. If this isn’t the most significant event in human history I don’t know what is!!

    Related issues around water, land clearance, fracking, coral bleaching, etc, underline the urgency of dealing with this truly scary, nay, terrifying natural disaster..

    That this issue resonates with many, especially younger voters is starting to be reflected in the polls. The Lib/Nats have shamefully, and abjectly, failed to do anything meaningful to address our existential crisis. The ALP has been understandably timid in the face of the inevitable massive scare campaign that would ensue should they propose policies to adequately address global warming. Tony Abbott’s re-visited “CARBON TAX” lie could not contemplated by Labor, and I don’t blame them.

    The Greens are in the fortunate position of being able to offer climate policies which appeal to younger & idealistic voters. They don’t even have to deliver them, just promise.

    I think this election is over, bar the shouting. Nothing will change significantly over the final ten days, & Labor/Greens will record a final combined vote of around 46%, against the Coalition’s locked in 38%. Worst case TPP is: 52/48, and best is: 53-54/ 47-46 to Labor.

    How the final seat tally will play out is obviously dependent upon where the swings/losses are occurring. FWIW, in my seat of Mayo, seat polling published in the Advertiser suggests Labor will get just 7% PV. Other seats being hotly contested by strong independents, will doubtless return similar variations from the national PV of either Libs/Nats or Labor.

    The ‘headline’ ALP PV has been the subject of much angst and hand-wringing on PB in recent days, but I’m comfortable that the combined Labor/Green PV is locked in around 46%..

    This election is over ..time now to get on with the massive, urgent, issue affecting & threatening all of us: GLOBAL WARMING!!

  18. So Bill shorten said in QandA that his mum had to take a teaching scholarship.
    He omitted to say she went back to study in her late fifties to achieve her goal of being a lawyer.
    Well blow me down. He needs to be run out of town…..

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Hartcher says that Bob Hawke and Paul Keating have issued their first joint statement in 28 years to claim Labor’s ownership of the economy and endorse Bill Shorten to run it.
    And here is the op-ed the pair has penned.
    David Crowe tells us that Morrison has vowed to stop the spread of union power and stem the growth of environmental rules that he blames for costing Australian jobs, as he sharpens his pitch to voters in the final days of the election campaign.
    How good is a 200 per cent return! That’s what Caymans company, Eastern Australia Irrigation, made from Australian water and cotton farms. Michael West reports on the eye-raising accounting issues and fishy water valuations of its Australian subsidiary Eastern Australian Agriculture – which appear to have turbo-charged returns for unknown investors in the Caribbean.
    Ross Gittins reckons he knows why the RBA kept the interest rate on hold.
    And so does Jess Irvine.
    Shane Wright begins his contribution on the RBA decision with, “Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg were saved an economic and political headache when the Reserve Bank decided against cutting interest rates on Tuesday. Instead, the headache has been delayed, leaving Bill Shorten and Chris Bowen like the Prime Minister and Treasurer, groping around the medicine cabinet for some Panadol.”
    Peter Lewis bemoans the indication that the escalation in dirt and ‘gotcha’ moments in the election campaign drags focus off actual policy.
    According to the AFR the Coalition will face an uphill battle to legislate its long-term income tax cuts should it win the election.
    After a shakier than expected start against an aggressive campaigner in Scott Morrison, Bill Shorten’s confidence is clearly rising. He’s looking dangerously relaxed and comfortable says Jennifer Hewett.
    “If Labor wins the 2019 federal election, what role will unions play?”, asks professor of Employment relations David Peetz.
    Elizabeth Knight explains how Bowen is using the nasty smell attached to tax havens to great effect.
    Treasurer Josh Frydenberg won’t cop any heat on Australia’s house price plunge. Instead he blames it on Labor’s impending crackdown on negative gearing and capital gains taxes. That’s a long bow he’s drawn!
    And Shane Wright says Labor will use official data showing 69 people who earned more than $1 million in a single year were able to wipe out their tax obligations, in part by claiming pricey accountancy fees, to press ahead with plans to stamp out the practice.
    Katharine Murphy goes a bit deeper into this story.
    The fact the Liberal launch won’t be about the Liberals exposes the party’s emptiness writes Katharine Murphy. She says the 2019 Liberal launch will be about Labor.
    Marginal seat campaigning in South Australia has come down to one seat: the Liberal-held electorate of Boothby and they don’t like people like Dutton there.
    Here is an excellent analysis of the mess that the NBN has become.
    This year’s flu season is expected to cause 4000 deaths among Australians, as medical professionals cross their fingers the rate of infections slows before the winter peak.
    Another bad day in court for Clive Palmer as his case against the Electoral Commission over two-party preferred counts was quickly rejected.
    Fairfax Lite’s smartvote Australia tool shows that independents locked in battles for blue-ribbon electorates are approaching the contests with a political philosophy starkly different to their Liberal Party opponents, with the biggest gaps in the key areas of environmental protection and law and order. Quite an interesting article.
    A Melbourne man died from bowel cancer while waiting for his disability support pension claim to be approved in what his advocate called “one of the worst cases” she has seen.
    Michael Koziol reports that Labor has pledged to reduce red tape on Australia’s charities and create national fundraising laws in a “fix” that is also designed to sideline maligned charities commissioner Gary Johns. It follows a bruising year for charities and not-for-profits fighting new foreign transparency laws that threatened to impose administrative burdens and curb their ability to advocate.
    Tony Wright looks at the evolution – and devolution – of the big election debate.
    According to Alexandra Smith a conservative Christian lobby group is campaigning with Muslims in Labor-held seats to “stop the godless from making sweeping changes” to religious freedoms.
    Heart surgeon Nikki Stamp laments the fact that so many people are eschewing efficacious medicinal treatment of high blood pressure and high cholesterol. This trend to exclusively use “lifestyle changes” to manage treatable diseases and conditions extends to diabetes and cancer.
    Esther Han reports that amphetamine possession in NSW has risen by 250 per cent over the past decade with 1500 users dying from the drug during the same period. The alarming statistics, which also showed possession in some parts of the state had skyrocketed by up to 1000 per cent, were presented on Tuesday at the special commission of inquiry into the drug ice commissioned by Premier Gladys Berejiklian.
    Most clearing of Australian habitat relied on by threatened species is concentrated in just 12 federal electorates, nine of which are held by the Coalition, an analysis has found.
    The marketing tactics being used to sell a soy-based “vegan tuna”, a product which has a similar name and packaging to the real thing, has upset the Australian seafood industry. “Tuno” is being sold as “vegetarian fishless tuna” which tastes similar to regular tinned tuna but is made with water, soy flour, yeast extract, maltodextrin and salt, instead of fish.
    Trump’s done it again! Wall Street plunges the most since January as China trade worries mount.
    Quentin Dempster writes that National treasure Ita Buttrose has taken the chairmanship of the ABC at a crucial time in its history. If the Scott Morrison coalition government is re-elected on May 18 one of the Buttrose board’s first tasks will be to order the further downsizing of the broadcaster to accommodate an $83.7 million funding cut over three years from July 1.
    And Stephen Bartholomeusz writes that a Chinese delegation is visiting the US for crucial trade talks, and there could be fireworks.
    The White House has ordered ex-counsel McGahn to defy the House subpoena.
    “Why are we allowing Amazon and the like to bug our own homes”, asks the Washington Post.
    And here is today’s standout nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.

    Cartoon Corner

    At the CWA with David Rowe.

    More good work from David Pope.

    From Matt Golding.

    Two from Mark David today.

    John Shakespeare and the threat of extinctions.

    Glen Le Lievre.

    Sean Leahy and political egg throwers and the state of Queensland’s Eds.

    Fiona Katauskas hits hard with this one.

    Chris Downes and social media problems for candidates.

    Cathy Wilcox, the CWA and eggs.

    Michael Leunig waxes poetical about the royal birth.

    Jon Kudelka at the CWA.

    From the US

  20. Hawkie being using the straightener on the hair or what.
    Great to see the two great men reunite for this campaign.
    They know what’s at stake.

  21. Thanks BK. In addition to Boothby, I’d love to know how things are on the ground in Sturt. With no Pyne it has to be a good shot for Labor to pick up the seat.

  22. I think Shorten will get a lot of sympathy out of this. Looking at the TL of the author of the piece, she seems to be a consistent presence on Paul Murray’s show on Sky.

    What a pack of scumbags. I’d love Labor to get in and go after these bastards. They aren’t worth a squirt of piss.

  23. The despicable Telegraph lead story will change the campaign.
    Bill should go on the front foot tonight at the debate and raise the issue himself.
    He should hit Murdoch hard.
    He should say that if elected PM he will never speak to a Tele journalist again.
    It will resonate with every viewer.

  24. The murdoch press are insidious.

    Their point is actually wrong…….

    Why dont the oz, telescum, mercury, herald sun etc just have a headline ‘ we we support consevatives – will do anything to bring down progessives’

    They disgust me

  25. A good point. Messiah type leaders rarely end well.

    Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
    9h9 hours ago
    On the argument of “how important are approval ratings”. I would rather have Shorten’s approval ratings than Rudd’s, because you know where you stand, and aren’t sucked in by the temptation of presidential style messianics – which prove to be fleeting

  26. Not going to lie – I’d rather Shorten had Rudd’s approval ratings and polling figures.

    Although actually wanting Rudd back is a bridge too far.

  27. Frankly, if THIS shit that even our resident obsessive Shorten haters would reduce themselves to, is the best the DT can do … the cupboards must be bare.

  28. ltep @ #43 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 7:44 am

    Not going to lie – I’d rather Shorten had Rudd’s approval ratings and polling figures.

    Although actually wanting Rudd back is a bridge too far.

    Rudd IS back, just not as a candidate for PM. He’s been doing his bit for the ALP and especially on WeChat and in the seats with a high Chinese-Australian composition.

  29. Waiting…waiting for Morrison to condemn the DT front page.

    Shorten’s mum is a terrific example of a LIFTER (in Hockeyspeak).

    I’m sure there are many others – mainly women – who have sacrificed their own career in the early years for the sake of their children, then gone on to pursue their dream later in life.

  30. Thanks BK for today’s offerings.

    Josh frydenberg is drawing a very long bow with sugar on top. Silly argument being made negative gearing. The property market should be going gangbusters for investors right now in the full knowledge that the rules will Change if Labor get in.
    Why would they stop investing In property now before rule changes. It doesn’t make sense, as it is clear that the policy will be grandfathered.

  31. As I said in the earlier thread, I knew Bill Shorten’s mum when she worked at Monash. She was my tutor when I studied education. She would have been in her mid fifties then and had a long career in education. that of course, was Shorten’s point. She had to put her ambitions on hold to support her family. Anne graduated in those years, but only practiced at the bar for five or six years. The Torygraph are a disgrace.

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