The Australian has published what can doubtless be regarded as the most reliable – or at any rate, least unreliable – seat polls to emerge from the campaign so far, from four well-chosen electorates. These are automated phone polls conducted on Saturday and have modest samples, from 509 to 618, although they seem to fit very well with where the major parties believe things to stand. Among other things, this means each looks to be going down to the wire. Perhaps a little more surprisingly, they find Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party doing at least as well as the Palmer United Party did in 2013.
Deakin (Victoria, Liberal 6.4%): The Liberals are credited with a two-party lead of 51-49 in this eastern Melbourne seat, consistent with the general impression of a big swing to Labor in Victoria – though perhaps not quite enough to take out this particular seat, which is held by arch-conservative Michael Sukkar. The primary votes are Liberal 46%, compared with 50.3% in 2016; Labor 39%, compared with 30.1%; Greens 8%, compared with 11.3%; and 5% for the United Australia Party. The numbers for comparison here are as adjusted for the redistribution, which boosted the Liberal margin from 5.7% to 6.4%. The sample here was 535.
Pearce (WA, Liberal 3.6%): A dead heat on two-party preferred in Christian Porter’s seat on Perth’s northern fringes, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 8% (11%), United Australia Party 8% and One Nation 6%. Sample: 509.
Herbert (Queensland, Labor 0.0%): The Coalition has high hopes invested in recovering this Townsville-based seat from Labor’s Cathy O’Toole due to the Adani controversy, but the poll’s two party preferred reading finds nothing to separate the two parties on the primary vote, in a seat Labor won by 37 votes in 2016. Presumably these polls use respondent-allocated preferences, as 2016 preference flows suggest this is more like 51-49 to Labor: their primary vote is only down from 30.5% to 29%, while the Liberal National Party is down from 35.5% to 31.1%. The United Australia Party does particularly well here, despite Palmer himself having baulked at his earlier plan to contest the seat. It records 14% of the vote, resulting in One Nation fading from 13.5% to 9%, although Katter’s Australian Party are up from 6.9% to 10%. The Greens are at 5%, down from 6.3%. Sample: 529.
Lindsay (NSW, Labor 1.1%): Another status quo result in a seat the Liberals are talking up as a gain from Labor, who are credited with a 51-49 lead. In this case, previous election preferences would probably have produced a stronger result for the Liberals, who are up from 39.3% to 41% on the primary vote with Labor down from 41.1% to 40%. The Greens are little changed on 4%, compared with 3.6% last time, and the United Australia Party are on 7%. Sample: 618.
It has been said around the place that Essential Research was not letting Easter deter it from following its fortnightly polling schedule over the weekend, but it may be causing them to delay its release by a day, because there’s nothing about it on The Guardian’s site.
I know bogans. I work alongside them. Blue collar, low-paid labourers and tradies. All Anglo.
They describe vegans as ‘soft cocks’, they deride ‘poofters’, love footy (AFL), fishing and shooting. They parade down main street doing laps in their utes emblazoned with ‘no fat chicks’ and Bundy Rum stickers. They drink copious amounts of ‘piss’. They hate ‘coons’, ‘greenies’ and ‘refos’. They would happily trade away pay and working conditions in order to ‘stop the boats’. They vote National and Liberal. They read the Herald Sun. They breed.
LR
Regarding the Hello World $200,000 donation to the Liberals, as a minim7m, it must be made illegal for tenderers to be able to donate money to a politician or party that is overseeing a tender. There must be a “lock out period” when big tender decisions are being made. And that is if we cannot get an outright ban.
Dave from wagga
If it makes you feel better, I know many like that whose background is not Anglo. Sigh……….
a r says: Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 10:12 am
and also that Trump would use it to campaign against them
And thus lying, obstruction, and all the other shitty things Trump does are rewarded because nobody is willing to stand up and face more of the same from him. Lovely.
*************************************************
Another strategy would be to bring a lot of the usual suspects – like Trumps Crime Family members …… Barr ….. Trump himself …… before Congress and under oath subject them to intense questioning on a continuing basis and build brick by brick a indisputable pattern of crimes of obstruction, lying, misuse etc etc for the US public to see ……. then get down to the brass tacks of resignation , impeachment ……
Rocket Rocket @ #129 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 10:09 am
It does look like Barnyard is a barely functioning alcoholic. He does need treatment – lots of it.
You have to wonder how much of PKs ‘assertiveness’ is a consequence of the change of leadership in the ABC.
Would she have been the same under the old Chairman and CEO? – you know, the ones who took their marching orders from Morrisson & Fifield et. al.
Due to lousy radio reception up here on the Glorious NSW Mid-North Coast, I’ve taken to listening to PK’s podcast (jointly with FK).
It’s a pretty bolshie effort, thanks mostly to PK. She is a refreshing change from the usual blancmange “On the one hand… On the other” ABC effort. And it’s been around a lot longer than the new Chairperson’s tenure.
Podcast is available on ABC Listen: The Party Room.
Reading out the text she received during Insiders the other day was perfectly acceptable. It may well have lulled Barnarby Joyce into thinking he’d get the “usual” ABC free ride from her last night. May have even sealed the deal for his appearance. I for one never thought he’d get the foot rub many here assumed he would. Karvelas is as tough as old boots.
Barnarby is crazy, and getting crazier. He really needs a rest. I mean that sincerely. He appears to be permanently on the edge of what used to be called a “nervous breakdown.”
He is also a major negative for the Coalition. Announcing his revivified leadership adpurations – with virtually zero chance if ever achieving them, or even of ever being a minister again – should be indication enough that he’s outlived his usefulness to his side of politics.
C@tmomma @ #148 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 10:21 am
I don’t know. He’s been blessed with meek/weak opponents (so far). And even then his “win” came despite receiving significantly fewer votes than his opponent, and at the expense of pretty much every election since.
At least I wouldn’t pluralize “elections” there. Trump won one. And only just barely. And only by following an electoral strategy that wasn’t his own (it was mostly Bannon’s, with a lot of help from Russia on the side). His electoral effectiveness is, I think, a myth.
Let’s not forget that Barnyard sacked his first permanent head over an “integrity issue”. The writing was already on the wall.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/oct/24/barnaby-joyce-accused-of-sacking-department-head-for-challenging-his-integrity
Does anyone else have a crome ‘no mouse cursor’ issue?
Anyway I want to take a slightly different view on the ‘US hyperpartianship’ view. While even at the best of times it is problematic at the current point in US, and in a lesser extent here in Australia, it falls into two fallacies. Firstly it is explicitly framed as a ‘both sides’ problem. In the US it is not a both sides problem, it is a Republican set of behaviours and decisions, most fiercly by Mitch, that no matter what is right, sensible or good for the country he is going to use and misuse his numbers in the Senate. It is an act of terrible bad faith and there is nothing the democrats are doing that is even remotely similar.
I would argue the LNP in Australia shows many of these bad faith, party and corruption before Country, behaviours, but I would definitely concede they are no where near as marked, and well as bad and as destructive as Abbott was he just doesn’t have the evil or cunning of McConnell.
There are also two myths which are widely held and which I consider fundamentally inconsistent with progress and democracy. First is the constant fetishisation of the centre. Two party politics is often going to end up in the centre, and where there are two parties both of good faith (we don’t have that but if we did) you are going to end up between their two extremes. But that centre is just as likely to be built on the worst or mediocre bits of both parties stances as it is going to be an ideal combination of the good bits of both sides.
Secondly, and this might be more of an Australian thing but we see a bit of it in the US as well, and that is somehow a person who stands for nothing, has zero passion and very little engagement with their own democracy is a ‘good’ person. They are not. I have said it before and I will say it again, the worst most racist engaged One Nation person is 1000% better for Australian democracy than the most wonderful and ethical disengaged dispassionate passenger in Australian democracy.
One can see how fetishing disengagement helps the powers that be, I surely don’t need to expand on that.
Well, “Watergate” may or may not be making a splash in the East (ouch!), but as far the West is concerned (paper that is) – zilch, nada, crickets, nothing – as far as I could see this morning. However, Porter’s 50-50 from Newspoll does rate a mention. Must be disappointing for the West as they have done everything they can in the last 10 days or so to rate LNP and Labor down.
I have tried to listen to the party room, over and over again. I’ve had at least 5 runs at it and it is still in my pod feed. I feel we need to support women in political journalism as much as we need to support women in sports.
I have also listened to, but without trying ever to be a regular the Two Grumpy Blokes one.
If you want a nice summary of the current thinking of the collective press gallery, tightly framed in the conventional press wisdom, without ever straying into thought or anything that resembles analysis, I thoroughly recommend getting into the Party Room or the Grumpy Blokes.
Yes, and for those who can remember the Keating loss election, I remember he being cheered by a group of school girls and this was taken as some kind of sign that all was well………………meaningless in the end.
Jeez when was the last time that the NSW Farmer’s Federation had a presser with a Labor Minister (Albo)
sprocket_ @ #142 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 10:16 am
+1
“Karvelis did the “rope a dope” on Joyce. The interview went far longer than he expected. So, he ran out of rhetoric and hyperbole. He almost answered a question.”
Karvelis did not fight fair – she called him after 9am – so he was pissed.
he sounds as though he has got mental health issues
Barnaby is not coping with being scrutinised for his corrupt behaviour.
The seat polling is pretty much confirming my prediction I have made for the Federal Election, which is a Labor two party preferred vote of 52-53% and winning between 82 and 86 seats. Also Palmer’s United Australia Party seems to be picking up those who were intending to vote for One Nation.
The Coalition and their media will proclaim such a result, in that they did not lose as many seats as they feared as a relatively good result.
Victoria @ #167 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 10:43 am
And I reckon Labor announcing, earlier this morning, that they would instigate an Inquiry into the Inland Rail project, would have fair done his head in! 😀
the government is very luck indeed that Helloworld did not win that contract or it would be Game Over even more than it already is.
will labor call for a national ICAC now? they’d have to fund it very well to clear the backlog of the last six years.
Re Trump. He cares about one thing only, his reputation. His reputation is in two parts: the money and the bully. So if you want to defeat Trump you should have two strategies.
* Go after his money, all of its aspects. It will reveal the man. Expose it.
* Repeat, repeat, repeat: “What has he got to hide?” “What is he afraid of?” Cowardice is at the core of a bully. Expose it.
I think we’re seeing the beginning of that with the congressional subpoena of his financial records. It neatly ties together both flaws.
C@t
Precisely. He should have resigned way back when. But nah, he is full of his own self importance and of course doesn’t want to work a day in his life to get the harvest, of the seeds he has sown to date.
sustainable future @ #168 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 10:46 am
No, no! Final two weeks of the campaign for that.
And while calling for it they need to endlessly repeat the list of all the Coalition’s scandals that make a Federal ICAC necessary.
Joel Fitzgibbon
@fitzhunter
When Joyce finished wrecking agriculture & moved to infrastructure I told Parliament he would be remembered as “the worst minister in the history of the Federation”. Some thought it may be over-reach? #watergate #apvma #coalitionagreement #hansardgate
10:32 AM · Apr 23, 2019 from Lismore, New South Wales
Labor has been committed to the National Integrity Commission for many many months, why are people waiting for an announcement that has been made?
OK guys…calm down….my reference to bogans was very tongue in cheek. I live in the Eastern end and have always called Penrith……….. Bogan City.
When you think of Penrith think Cronulla and the shire…..without the beaches…ScoMo heaven.
In 2013 Abbott landslide (Libs) won Lindsay on votes from Penrith…….not the eastern end and the 2pp was 51.2/48.8
Following on from BB’s comment, I believe Joyce did expect a foot rub from Karvalas. After all, he’s on texting terms with her, she even takes his messages live on national television.
I understand the the interview was conducted on radio.
Now the Coalition would be well aware that Joyce can even stuff up a footrub, so they will have provided him with a written script to follow.
That script would have included a few points to stress, and answer every question with, over a period of a ten minute call.
It would also include “emphasis” indicators, with the words “Labor Labor Labor Labor” repeated consecutively and often.
Poor old Joyce in his confusion and befuddlement, not getting the footrub he expected, and the interview going on and on past his attention span, ran out of stress points on his notes, and in frustration or lack of understanding what was expected of him, read out what he had in front of him verbatim – “Labor Labor Labor Labor”.
Bill – VERY IMPRESSIVE!
On the attack today! Finally.
Shorten on the front foot this presser. Been given some own goals by the Libs and making the most of it. Looks a winner.
antonbruckner11 @ #161 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 10:38 am
Labor Shadow Minister, I believe is what you meant. An entirely understandable Freudian slip on your part.
Joyce’s latest draft for inland rail has come to light
Turnbull was PM when Barnarby bought those water rights. I wonder whether this will figure in the scandal?
haha this local bloke who’s the candidate with Shorten is speaking ten to the dozen but he’s on the front foot too. love it. Give ’em heaps.
Iom @ 9.27am
I just listened to Albo with Alan Jones (a very rare listen for me). Jones has a bee in his bonnet about the Inland Rail project and rightly so it seems.
Worth a listen
https://www.2gb.com/anthony-albanese-announces-public-inquiry-into-botched-10b-inland-rail/
The most depressing aspect of Barnaby is that he only paying $1.06 for the win, why would he resign when he can just continue the train wreck and still have a job.
Labor is paying $7 to defeat Barnaby, the next closest is the Independent at $17
Close of nominations is today, the only thing Barnaby has to fear is if Tony Winsor snuck in a nomination at the last minute.
“will labot call for a national ICAC now
No, no! Final two weeks of the campaign for that.”
I say strike while the iron is hot. Make the issues:
– Water (obviously)
– Tax minimisation by corporate australia and the mega wealthy
– MPs using expenses and RAAF for personal flights, etc. (Cormann, George C, Michaelia Cash, etc etc etc)
– Ministers receiving commonwealth funds via their businesses (Dutton)
– Donations from adani/the coal industry (many of them)
– land clearing (donations and dropped investigations – Taylor)
– Developers donations and transfer from state to fed and fed to state parties
– “Foundations” that only donate to one political party
– Media collusion with political party strategists
– political advertising breaches
– number of MPs with extensive negatively geared property portfolios; the number them buying or visiting their properties using taxpayer funded travel/expenses; and the amount of tax they pay/avoid as a result of their investments.
My guess is labor probably does not want a real ICAC as they come into a 2-4 term period of government, so they will settle for RCs into specific issues
Itza
Had you been to Lord Howe Island before? The few people I know who have been there all loved it so I must see it someday .
So Shorten is just cut off by the ABC when ScoMo decides to photo bomb his presser?
They really do need sub-channels on ABC News TV.
Bastard Scott Morrison! Waited, obviously, until Bill Shorten had started his press conference, then pulled rank with the meek ABC!
Thought I’d check out this press conference of Shorten’s and got about 30 seconds of it before the ABC cuts to Morrison starting a press conference!
Surely they should just record Morrison’s press conference and play it AFTER Shorten’s has finished!
Apart from bias it is just discourteous to Shorten and it is reinforcing the dis-courteousness of Morrison who no doubt chimed in with this very outcome in mind.
And I bet there’s not one aggressive journalist within cooee of Scott Morrison in SA today. I don’t think they exist there!
Labor has already announced a federal ICAC ffs.
Snap BB and C@t!
Kate McClymont
@Kate_McClymont
If the recent proliferation of the emoji on twitter handles is any indication of public sentiment, the drip, drip, drip of the #Watergate story indicates a major storm brewing.
@MichaelWestBiz
@hamishNews
@PatsKarvelas
@annefdavies
Surely the ABC will play rest of Shorten presser
Reading back, on Trioli.
She used to do an excellent series of interviews on the Arts, and was always well prepared, friendly, relaxed. She also had a Walkley(?) for pursuing Peter Costello. Given the chance she is far more like Karvelas.
I have always thought that she is unsuited to the rather vapid Breakfast Show with an empty suit beside her.
Victoria @ #193 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 11:17 am
Wanna bet?
Joe O’Brien
@JoeABCNews
.
@Barnaby_Joyce
morning media conf now cancelled .. We are now told it MIGHT happen later today.
9:29 AM · Apr 23, 2019 · Twitter Web Client
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‘Surely they should just record Morrison’s press conference and play it AFTER Shorten’s has finished!
It’s a fcking outrage is what it is.
The caretaker Prime minister and Opposition leader should receive the same treatment in these situations. Whoever starts first gets to finish.
I’m writing to the abfckingC about this.
ajm
I dont watch much of ABC these days, so not sure how they roll with such things
Great headline in SMH online this morning: https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/we-re-exciting-barnaby-joyce-opts-for-sensation-over-sobriety-in-spectacular-interview-20190423-p51gd3.html