The Australian has published what can doubtless be regarded as the most reliable – or at any rate, least unreliable – seat polls to emerge from the campaign so far, from four well-chosen electorates. These are automated phone polls conducted on Saturday and have modest samples, from 509 to 618, although they seem to fit very well with where the major parties believe things to stand. Among other things, this means each looks to be going down to the wire. Perhaps a little more surprisingly, they find Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party doing at least as well as the Palmer United Party did in 2013.
Deakin (Victoria, Liberal 6.4%): The Liberals are credited with a two-party lead of 51-49 in this eastern Melbourne seat, consistent with the general impression of a big swing to Labor in Victoria – though perhaps not quite enough to take out this particular seat, which is held by arch-conservative Michael Sukkar. The primary votes are Liberal 46%, compared with 50.3% in 2016; Labor 39%, compared with 30.1%; Greens 8%, compared with 11.3%; and 5% for the United Australia Party. The numbers for comparison here are as adjusted for the redistribution, which boosted the Liberal margin from 5.7% to 6.4%. The sample here was 535.
Pearce (WA, Liberal 3.6%): A dead heat on two-party preferred in Christian Porter’s seat on Perth’s northern fringes, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 8% (11%), United Australia Party 8% and One Nation 6%. Sample: 509.
Herbert (Queensland, Labor 0.0%): The Coalition has high hopes invested in recovering this Townsville-based seat from Labor’s Cathy O’Toole due to the Adani controversy, but the poll’s two party preferred reading finds nothing to separate the two parties on the primary vote, in a seat Labor won by 37 votes in 2016. Presumably these polls use respondent-allocated preferences, as 2016 preference flows suggest this is more like 51-49 to Labor: their primary vote is only down from 30.5% to 29%, while the Liberal National Party is down from 35.5% to 31.1%. The United Australia Party does particularly well here, despite Palmer himself having baulked at his earlier plan to contest the seat. It records 14% of the vote, resulting in One Nation fading from 13.5% to 9%, although Katter’s Australian Party are up from 6.9% to 10%. The Greens are at 5%, down from 6.3%. Sample: 529.
Lindsay (NSW, Labor 1.1%): Another status quo result in a seat the Liberals are talking up as a gain from Labor, who are credited with a 51-49 lead. In this case, previous election preferences would probably have produced a stronger result for the Liberals, who are up from 39.3% to 41% on the primary vote with Labor down from 41.1% to 40%. The Greens are little changed on 4%, compared with 3.6% last time, and the United Australia Party are on 7%. Sample: 618.
It has been said around the place that Essential Research was not letting Easter deter it from following its fortnightly polling schedule over the weekend, but it may be causing them to delay its release by a day, because there’s nothing about it on The Guardian’s site.
Morrison probably begged him to can it. Or made him some kind of offer too good to refuse.
jenauthor @ #81 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:39 am
I’d say the next press conference that Joyce gives will be the one where he announces he intends to spend more time with his family
Someone heard new Morgan has Labor between 52-53, but link on site is still from two weeks ago apparently.
How funny is that pic doing the rounds on twitter of Shorten standing under a circular light somewhere yesterday? Looks like he has a halo. Not even Bill would suggest that I’d imagine.
Grattan, for one, has used it as the pic accompanying a story in one of her tweets.
Darn
Apparently the Morgan poll was from few weeks ago.
GG
Yep. It ought to be. Also I reckon Angus Taylor ought to be doing the same.
Lindsay is a complicated seat. The East and along the rail line and the Great Western Highway, extending from Mt Druitt to East of Penrith, is basically “old” outer Western Sydney, traditionally Labor voting. Much of the Western part is rural and semi-rural, with McMansions rapidly spreading over what were until recently cow paddocks and market gardens. These areas vote Liberal.
Darn
The Morgan was two weeks old.
Victoria @ #93 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:46 am
Depends on who is the ultimate beneficiary of the scam. That’s the question not being answered atm.
IoM @ #88 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:27 am
Another good reason why Barnaby Joyce cancelled his press conference.
Greensborough Growler @ #101 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:43 am
Well, he does have two of them. 🙂
GG
You would think it would be a very simple question to answer.
Who benefitted from sale? And it shouldn’t even have to be a nefarious question. Unless there is something to hide
You have to wonder how much of PKs ‘assertiveness’ is a consequence of the change of leadership in the ABC.
Would she have been the same under the old Chairman and CEO? – you know, the ones who took their marching orders from Morrisson & Fifield et. al.
I just listened to Barnaby’s “interview”. A one word summary
FAAAAAARRRRRRRKKKKKKKK!!!!
If this gets a proper run it is the end of the LNP for some time.
This bloke wants to be deputy PM again. He is deranged.
Labor needs his a dutton’s photos on every poster as we walk in to the booths after runnign a campaign saying dutton, abbott and barnaby will plot to take our Morrision.
a r
Most of the bogans (racist? certainly prejudiced) I know are low income earners from low income backgrounds. They know they’re never going to be earning big dollars. No one they know earns big dollars.
One of my bogan friends recently opened an Op Shop. She described this as her lifelong dream.
That’s the extent of her aspirations.
Another is a cleaner. She works every day of the year. Her aspiration is to have a day off sometime.
Victoria @ #99 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:51 am
Agree.
can we have a barnaby vrs wong debate 🙂
sustainable future @ #113 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:52 am
You mean ‘A vote for Morrison is a vote for Abbott, Dutton & Joyce’ ? Makes a good bumper sticker and campaign posters. Especially if you use the right photos and in black & white and shades of grey.
One can only hope.
Greensborough Growler @ #115 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:54 am
As anyone who has listened to the interview can attest, it is much, much harder not to answer the question…
From what I saw on Twitter last night, barnaby joyce and David Littleproud were conducting a forum today in electorate. Is that still happening?
booleanbach @ #100 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:52 am
Karvelis did the “rope a dope” on Joyce. The interview went far longer than he expected. So, he ran out of rhetoric and hyperbole. He almost answered a question.
My best friends are ‘Bogans’. They call a spade a shovel and wouldn’t lie to your face like the ‘Aspirationals’ do.
I suspect Labor is making a new ad and/or new printed material featuring Barnaby and Dutton
The Morgan poll is question was from the 12th – start of campaign in other words. 52.5-47.5
Victoria @ #119 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:58 am
In BJ’s electorate. It will probably be Invitation Only now. 😆
booleanbach @ #105 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:55 am
Spooky music would add gravitas.
I’d be interested to see which seats have changed from Labor to Liberal because of ‘bogans’ switching. In my experience, seats shift because of demographic changes – that is, they switch from Labor to Liberal when they become gentrified and the bogans are forced out.
The ME vote suggested that ‘bogans’ are more progressive than migrant communities. Migrants tend to (like bogans) congregate in areas where housing is cheap. Thus it’s easy to look at an area which is voting conservative and assume that rises in conservative votes are due to ‘bogans’ being won over.
I’d suggest that people who are ‘framing’ bogans in this way don’t know any (like mundo). It’s prejudice.
Vic
It’s been a while. But will the Dems seek to impeach, or leave it to the electorate next year? Do you have a view?
I think they’d be smart to leave it.
Al Pal @ #127 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 10:06 am
Sorry to but in, however my reading of Nancy Pelosi and Stenny Hoyer’s pronouncements is that they will not impeach Trump due to the fact they don’t want it to distract from the 2020 POTUS contest and also that Trump would use it to campaign against them.
I heard some of Joyce’s interview on the way to work this morning. He sounded intoxicated – I have thought this before a few times when he has been interviewed.
It seems that like his affair(?s) – this problem is an open secret in political circles. He needs help – his political problems are not life-threatening in comparison.
“Liberal MPs erase party’s name and logo from election campaign material”
Why would a party that is clearly having a comeback do this? The media keeps telling us that there is leaked polling showing the government in front, and William highlights movement to the Libs in the betting market. How could these people be wrong?
zoomster,
From memory Tony Abbott energised bogans in 2013 to vote against Labor and Julia. At least in NSW.
I have to admit Karvellas had amazing determination; if it had been me I would have cut the mic & ended the interview after the second ‘labor,labor,labor,labor,labor’ spray, not to mention talking over the top of her all the time and never answering the questions as put..
Isn’t another name for alcohol, ‘Dutch Courage’? 🙂
bug1 @ #81 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 9:17 am
Seriously depressing to listen to this. How this man was ever elected let alone became a Minister is beyond me.
And thus lying, obstruction, and all the other shitty things Trump does are rewarded because nobody is willing to stand up and face more of the same from him. Lovely.
“In BJ’s electorate. It will probably be Invitation Only now”
Tony Windsor tweeted that he and his wife would come along so that Barnaby could apologize to her.
The Dems will not impeach Trump (eventually) because they will never have the Senate on their side.
Far better to go down the multitude of hearings road; and let the SDNY and other prosecutors do their thing with the reams of evidence now out on the table.
Interesting movement in Sportsbet in Labor’s favour overnight
ALP
Was: 1.25
Now: 1.22
LNP
Was: 3.85
Now: 4.25
Greensborough Growler @ #101 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 7:43 am
Which one?
C@t
I think the stench around Barnyard is more the ‘Dutch oven’ than the ‘Dutch courage’ his drinking inspires
Apologies in advance to Boerwar and others of Dutch heritage 🙂
Al Pal
Investigate everything first. And that includes dirty GOP and dem operative. Impeachment last resort.
I still hope Trump leaves the office, even If it takes making a deal.
I had to turn off the Karvelas v Barnaby title fight on the radio this morning.
He definitely showed signs of being punch drunk, wildly flailing, incoherent yelling, pissing in his pants etc.
Couldn’t have happened to a nicer c***.
a r says Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 10:12 am
Power is usually not held to account.
I believe DoJ advice going back since time began (or something like that) is that a sitting president can not be indicted. It’s up to the HoR to impeach and the Senate to then hold a trial. Given the hyperpartisan nature of US politics at the moment, there is no way that a sufficient number of senators would find against a president (even if he wasn’t Republican).
Of course there’s nothing stopping the indictment of a former president, at least as far as I know.
Al pal
And what Booleanbach said
This man was the deputy PM and frequently the acting PM of Australia. I do owe Karvellas an apology as I doubted her willingness and the degree to which she has been captured by a very Fox / Sky / LNP perspective.
I was wrong.
I don’t think anyone could have handled that any better in those circumstances, and it will go down in history as a great moment of Australian political journalism, most impressively it wasn’t just a ‘gotcha’ or even a series of ‘gotchas’ she tried valiantly to cover the important factual and policy questions, and she even seemed to at least rise to a pass mark on Ministerial Accountability, which would likely leave her with few friends in the CPG, and zero in the Fox / Sky / News sewer (when th LNP is in power, they miraculously remember norms and standards, and take the front row in their defense when the ALP is in power).
It is really over to Labor now, they can develop and run an incompetent / corrupt theme by joining the dots, obviously the media should do that, but they aren’t going to.
Al Pal
And what c@t said too
Thank you as ever to the indefatigable BK. 🙂
We have stories today that fit the theme of corruption, such as these.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/helloworld-chief-made-200-000-donation-to-liberal-party-during-government-tender-20190422-p51g7c.html
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/angus-taylor-barnaby-joyce-and-an-80-million-water-leak,12603
The first thing that occurred to me was BW’s “lucky list”. I wonder if it can be curated with different types of “luck”. I reckon there’d be a fairly big’un labelled “Is it Corrupt that..?”
More seriously, inserting a discussion on corruption into this election debate should be a simple matter. Both major parties are already using the word “fair” in a bunch of talking points. It’s not hard to frame these activities as “Having a go”.
a r @ #137 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 10:12 am
You don’t have to like it to acknowledge that he uses all the tools in his inane armoury very, very effectively to win elections.
Michael McCormack may be the only coalition figure that enjoys listening to that Barnaby interview. Hasn’t he been vocal in defending Joyce since then? 🙂
Malcolm might make a copy too.