Speaking on RN Breakfast on Friday, Ben Oquist of progressive think tank the Australia Institute voiced the beltway consensus that “the bookies have got this one wrong at the moment – they’re forecasting a much bigger Labor victory than anybody seems to be predicting”. Betting markets at first appeared to respond, if not to Oquist specifically, then to the view coming through in media reports that both major parties were expecting a tight contest. Labrokes was offering $5 on a Coalition on Thursday, but by Sunday this was in to $3.50. Then came Newspoll, showing Labor maintaining its lead, and the Coalition blew back out to $4.50.
The individual seat markets have been more consistent, pointing to a Labor landslide of even greater dimensions than the one currently projected by BludgerTrack, which I would have thought quite a bit too favourable for Labor, particularly in Queensland. Ladbrokes rates Labor as favourites in five Coalition-held seats in New South Wales (Banks, Gilmore, Page, Reid and Robertson), four in Victoria (Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin and Dunkley), three in Western Australia (Hasluck, Pearce and Swan), one in South Australia (Boothby), and a Kevin Rudd-equalling nine in Queensland (Bonner, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Leichhardt and Petrie).
There has been some movement to the Coalition in the seat markets, notably in Flinders, where Liberal member Greg Hunt has edged to very narrow favouritism. Other significant movements have been recorded in the Liberals’ favour in Banks ($3.50 to $2.25), Lindsay ($3.50 to $2.05), Page ($2.40 to $1.90), Lyons ($5.50 to $4), Chisholm ($5 to $3.75), although Labor remains favourites in each. However, there has actually been movement in Labor’s favour in Gilmore, where they are in from $1.30 to $1.18, with Liberal out from $4.50 to $4.75.
Of the independent contenders, Albury mayor Ken Mack is rated equally likely to succeed against Liberal member Sussan Ley in Farrer as Zali Steggall is against Tony Abbott in Warringah, each offering a payout of $2.00. Both are trumped by Rob Oakeshott in Cowper, the most highly fancied non-incumbent independent at $1.75. In Mallee, where Andrew Broad of the Nationals is retired hurt, Ladbrokes is offering $3 for an independent to win, be it Ray Kingston, Cecilia Moar or Jason Modica. (Sportsbet has it at $4.75). Dave Sharma is favoured to recover Wentworth for the Liberals from Kerryn Phelps, with the two respectively at $1.57 and $2.30.
Among the many features of the Poll Bludger election guide, you can find Ladbrokes’ seat odds listed on the bottom right of each of the electorate pages, which are linked to individually throughout this post.
guytaur @ #90 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 9:03 am
Yes, and the Unions won’t be coming on PB every day and castigating Labor for not doing what they cannot. Until they can.
Because the Union Movement behave like adults, not little kids having a tantrum because they can’t get a lolly in the supermarket check out aisle.
Many Asian people come to Australia for its freedom and liberties…to escape conservative and restrictive cultures in their homelands. I know many gay and lesbian immigrants from China, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia, and few other radicals, who are definitely not LNP voters.
So, what’s the difference between an anti Chinese comment by an ALP Opposition Leader and an anti LGBTQI comment by a Chinese Australian Liberal Party candidate?
One had the Liberal Party baying for their political blood and he dutifully resigned for his comment, the other has the Liberal Party impersonating Chief Wiggum because they don’t want to lose the Chinese Australian vote they just snatched away from Labor after the other guy’s improper remarks.
I honestly don’t think that’s right. Just because the woman is a Chines Australian, doesn’t mean she can get away with saying abhorrent things about the LGBTQI community.
What’s good enough for Israel Folau and Michael Daley, is good enough for Gladys Liu.
Nicholas says:
Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 8:55 am
Warwick Smith of the University of Melbourne has a macroeconomically literate piece in The Conversation today:
The reality is that we don’t know how low unemployment could fall in modern Australia because we haven’t made any genuine attempt to push it below 5% for decades.
A modern-day policy commitment to full employment, along lines inspired by what we did after the war, could lift wages, reduce inequality, drive increases in productivity and, most importantly, provide full employment for the more than two million Australians who are currently unemployed, underemployed or discouraged attempting to get work.
This is completely correct. The repression of wages tends to encourage the substitution of labour for capital, resulting in the formation/retention of relatively lower-skilled and lower-value-adding jobs. The most vivid examples of this are in economies with very low wages, where workers are usually trapped in low-value jobs in the ‘informal’ sector, characterised by very low-capital-intensity, the dominance of piece-work and very high rates of unemployment.
Economies where wages are high have high rates of capital-intensity; high rates of innovation; high investment in skill formation and transfer. They also usually jobs that are not only well-paid, but are also secure, which gives workers-and-their-families a stable context in which to invest in their skills and the capacity to lift their savings rates.
Re seat odds: ALP also favoured in Reid.
Odds for Eden-Monaro not showing for some reason.
Cat
Not according to the partisans or Brokn’s that reply to @JeremyPoxon
The fact is that the Greens have found a good issue of concern that matters to voters. Their gain no matter how much you may not like them campaigning on it. Its called campaigning.
Cat
Not according to the partisans or Brokn’s that reply to @JeremyPoxon
The fact is that the Greens have found a good issue of concern that matters to voters. Their gain no matter how much you may not like them campaigning on it. Its called campaigning.
Forgive my ignorance on this but does raising Newstart require any form of legislation or can it all be done from a Minister’s desk?
Also, I hope that, if there is a significant raise in Newstart, that there is also a significant raise in Austudy (and the Youth Allowance equivalent.) Student poverty was a serious issue I met in my previous job.
Also, regardless of what happens to the Newstart rate, I hope the current, extremely vicious system with the Jobactive/DES, is improved and made a little less hostile to both jobseekers and those who are trying to help but get chewed-up because the ridiculous KPIs and over-competitive job agency market sets them to failure – unless they are soulless, marketing sociopaths who will dump clients into really bad positions just to keep their numbers up.
gutaur@9:12am, expat and max
How do you explain No vote for SSM in Banks, Bennelong and Tony Burke’s electorate where Chinese Australians and other minorities live in large numbers. Sydney recorded the largest No vote where minorities live in large numbers (mostly in ALP electorates). So are yoy saying Asians as homophobic? To oppose SSM is not homophobic. It is cultural for most Asians.
Do not pretend all gay people as progressive. There are lot of gay people who are conservatives. For example Tim Wilson. Or that gay staffer, who opposed SSM and who worked in Erica betz office. Is that gay staffer homophobic? It is not me who is insulting Asians. It is you who is doing that. I am pointing to facts how No vote was cast.
Bushfire Bill @ #98 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 9:18 am
Nah, he made a statement. Asking requires a ‘?’ at the end of the sentence. And to remove any doubt, he emphasized his statement with “Must act quickly!”.
He wasn’t asking anything. He had a thought bubble whilst watching the news on TV and then presumed that he knew better than the people with boots on the ground who were already dealing with the fire, clearly none of whom could have come up with his brilliant idea on their own, and so he rushed to tell the world. That takes a special sort of self-absorbed arrogance.
But we’re missing the point. Renovation, what’s that all about?
RL
What I think is happening with Labor doing review is that its not just about Newstart which is the point Cat should be making not complaining over Greens campaigning. I think Labor plans on going back to a Centrelink and getting out of the government supporting the private operators making a profit off punishing the poor on Social Security.
I don’t know this its just a gut feeling from comments they have made. I just don’t think Labor is prepared to say this before the election campaign to avoid more bashing of the poor by the LNP.
Thats what I think is happening. I could very well be wrong of course.
Ven
Homophobia is homophobia. You don’t excuse it by saying that a fair swathe of the community in another city voted no to equality.
Look, if Labor get back in, I hope the Greens and activist groups hold them to account and push for issues. That’s healthy. It’s cynical ratbaggery and trying to undermine with concern-trolling, or false progressiveness I don’t like. Hold the Shorten Government to account and push for reforms. That’s a healthy part of governance. Expecting everyone to bend the knee because we believe we will sort it out, isn’t.
BK @6:43 (Dawn Patrol)
“And it looks like The Australian and the Adelaide Advertiser have found a way to nobble Outline.”
So have the Telecrap and Herald Sun.
So the Gospel According to Rupert can only be read by the initiated (subscribers).
Plus everyone who scans a free copy in a coffee shop or fast food restaurant. Also ABC Radio listeners who have it read out to them.
“Do not pretend all gay people as progressive. There are lot of gay people who are conservatives.”
Ashby.
Alan Jones
Cameron C
You forgot Freedom Boy 🙂
Could anyone enlighten me on the military’s opposition to making Monash a Field Marshal?
One of the big ones
Milo Yianopolous
Ven
Generally in Australia, i think most people use the term “asian” to mean east asians. (I.e. Chinese, Japanese, Vietnamese, Thai, Indonesia etc).
I think the three electorates that had the highest No vote to SSM were all electorates with the highest concentration of people from the middle east. While that is part of Asia, I think most Australians refer to it as the “middle east”.
I don’t think many are. However, let’s not make the fact that some LGBTQIA (apologies if I have excluded anyone from the acronym) are shitty people make it seem like standing up for their rights against bigotry seem like a non-progressive idea. They still receive much discrimination and exclusion, and are still viewed by too many (even those claiming to be accepting) as merely being a “fetish” or, in the case of the trans element, a mental illness.
And yes, I know that LGBTQIA isn’t technically an acronym, but rather an initialism because an acronym is when the letters form a word. (Lest anybody “Actually…” on that point)
“I just don’t think Labor is prepared to say this before the election campaign to avoid more bashing of the poor by the LNP.”
guytar, i agree sort of. I have my suspicions that the ALP will make some kind of announcement on Newstart during the campaign, at a time and place of THEIR choosing to maximize the effect during the campaign. The main game is to win the election and get a Shorten led ALP Govt.
I’m hoping they take the line that given an increase in Newstart is expected after the review they have committed too, and there is a good chance the $number will be in the order of 60-$75 / week, then do an interim increase of $25-30 / week from July 1 2019 and take it from there.
Its a right thing to do, and would be very powerful in therm of the campaign, IF the war-chest can support it. And if they get the timing right…………..:)
Gareth
says:
Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 9:39 am
Could anyone enlighten me on the military’s opposition to making Monash a Field Marshal?
____________________________________________________
As a relative of a former officer in the ADF I would suggest that it has nothing to do with Monash as a person or soldier. It is more to do with the idea that posthumously promoting someone a hundred years after they were in the army is a hollow and meaningless honour, a rewriting of actual events, and as relevant as going back and promoting a whole batch of corporals to sergeants.
Yes Alan Jones. I actually wonder why does he even bother, such a nasty, sociopathic, malevolent piece of work. The sooner he goes to the fire and brimstone for his innumerable sins, the better.
David Flint would be nearly up there as well.
Swamprat
While your post is correct there was a big conservative Chinese community vote against Marriage Equality.
Thats the point. The word conservative. The Chinese community is no more one view than any other community. They have their progressives as well as their conservatives.
We should keep in mind that it serves the interests of both parties to create the image of a tight contest. The Liberals are hardly going to spread the word that they are heading for a thrashing (if such was the case) and Labor aren’t going to be boasting that they expect to win by the length of the straight.
I noted last night on Q & A that Terri Butler went to great lengths to hose down any perception that Labor already had it in the bag. She said at one point while talking about Labor’s policies – ‘IF we win government. I don’t know if we will win or not’ and couched several other responses to questions in similar terms. So the word is obviously out. Play it down. Don’t sound too confident. Which is a very sensible approach to take.
Gareth,
He’s dead? That would be a good reason to oppose it.
Ven
To be clear to you. Liu would have been correct to say that their is a large block of conservative Chinese voters who view LGBTI rights as what she said.
That would have been stating facts not dog whistling homophobia.
It’s not like Monash was ever underappreciated, the things named after him in Victoria are everywhere.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #49 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 7:56 am
Greens just can’t help themselves.
guytaur
Yes, i know traditional Chinese society is fairly homophobic, as are most cultures and many in Australia would have voted No. i was just highlighting the fact that the highest No voting electorates correlated with the highest numbers of Muslims.
Well, just in cast Valhalla is real, I think Monash should be given as high rank as possible. :p
And with that, I have meetings with the corporate types. See you all laterz. Don’t tear your hairs out.
swamprat
“Generally in Australia, i think most people use the term “asian” to mean east asians. (I.e. Chinese, Japanese, Vietnamese, Thai, Indonesia etc).”
Geographically speaking, Asia extends all the way to the Mediterranean and to the Caucasus.
Ironically, “Asia” began on the Mediterranean – it was a Greek name applied to a part of the west coast of (what is now) Turkey; it’s even mentioned in Homer’s Iliad. The Romans later applied the name Asia to a province, and from there it slowly became applied to the entire continent (via Asia Minor).
swamprat
I am not sure you can say traditional society culture is homophobic. As traditional Asian culture had a very different view of homosexuality before Western Culture changed it.
I am no historian so I could be wrong. It is correct to say that the Communist Party China has such a view. However even under that regime its not illegal to be gay etc. They just encourage Gay Conversion Therapy and have views as Liu outlined.
Well said Darn.
One does not have to look too far to find what happens to your material support if Parties do not say the contest is close.
Members, workers and supporters do not turn out to assist if they think their side is a goner, or if their side is going to romp it in.
I’ve witnessed both reactions at elections in my time.
A.R, the renos on Notre dame are to fix some botched work done in the 1840’s afiak.
Chisholm – 62% voted yes to SSM.
No religion and did not answer makes up 44% of responses to the choice of religion at the 2016 Census in Chisholm. This outdoes the 18% who are catholic.
Gladys is probably right in terms of a large number of people. However there is a much larger slab of the population who would disagree with her stance. I think the question should be put to her: Has the world fallen in a heap because of this? and if so, how?
It has been 25 degrees in my part of world this morning. I keep forgetting what season we are in!
Was that comment relative Nath?
guytaur
I have always thought how odd it is that Communist countries seem to be both very puritanical and blatantly imperialistic. eg Soviet Russia and China.
Take that, Trump:
Having lived both very near Chisholm and in Sydney, to my untrained eye there are reasonably large differences in approach to life from Chinese migrants in the two places.
The Chinese migrants I met in Sydney were much more likely to be observant Christians than the Chinese migrants I have met in and around Chisholm.
The voting record on SSM would appear to to bear that out.
Do posters here think that most of the population has already made up its mind as to how they are going to vote?
That the campaign will not change anything much?
The MSM media also have a vested interest in close Elections in order to generate a sense of excitement and that something is actually happening.
This is one of the reasons that the ridiculous popularity metrics were invented as an alternative talking point generator. Rex would never been invented without them.
My view is we went from the Phony War just prior to the Election while the Government made their Adani decision. That has been followed Dancing with your Sister War which will continue till the Anzac Day has passed.
There’s lots of hot air signifying not much. But, this far out, people seem to have made up their minds and are simply waiting for the elapse of time till Election Day.
swamp
Thats my view of the campaign. In fact from the very little polling we have had its the only reasonable view I reckon. Basically I think Bernard Keane got it right calling it a sticky lead in his article yesterday.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Morrison Presser Corangimite
Radical Leftist – the other welfare spaces are why Labor is doing a review so all the low income welfare areas can be assessed and set at a reasonable level – especially where they cross-over between two or more benefits.
RatesAnalayst
says:
Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 10:12 am
Having lived both very near Chisholm and in Sydney, to my untrained eye there are reasonably large differences in approach to life from Chinese migrants in the two places.
The Chinese migrants I met in Sydney were much more likely to be observant Christians than the Chinese migrants I have met in and around Chisholm.
The voting record on SSM would appear to to bear that out.
_______________________________________
Probably right from my experience.
While a massive majority can be a pain, i think it would be best for the country if the LNP was pretty well smashed so that they rebuild and adopt at least a modicum of rationality before they get in office again.
swamprat,
Yeah I think they have. I also think the narrative of it being close is something both parties want to keep going, as does the media, because the media loves a contest.
I had a chat with a senior Labor MP earlier this week and expressed the view they are home and hosed. The reply was they are in a good position but not home and hosed yet.
I think Labor are basically trying to manage expectations and keep the base engaged rather than complacent, and I think the Libs are, frankly, pretty panicked.