Odds and sods

Betting odds continue to point towards a sweeping Labor victory, even as intelligence from both sides of politics suggests a much tighter contest.

Speaking on RN Breakfast on Friday, Ben Oquist of progressive think tank the Australia Institute voiced the beltway consensus that “the bookies have got this one wrong at the moment – they’re forecasting a much bigger Labor victory than anybody seems to be predicting”. Betting markets at first appeared to respond, if not to Oquist specifically, then to the view coming through in media reports that both major parties were expecting a tight contest. Labrokes was offering $5 on a Coalition on Thursday, but by Sunday this was in to $3.50. Then came Newspoll, showing Labor maintaining its lead, and the Coalition blew back out to $4.50.

The individual seat markets have been more consistent, pointing to a Labor landslide of even greater dimensions than the one currently projected by BludgerTrack, which I would have thought quite a bit too favourable for Labor, particularly in Queensland. Ladbrokes rates Labor as favourites in five Coalition-held seats in New South Wales (Banks, Gilmore, Page, Reid and Robertson), four in Victoria (Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin and Dunkley), three in Western Australia (Hasluck, Pearce and Swan), one in South Australia (Boothby), and a Kevin Rudd-equalling nine in Queensland (Bonner, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Leichhardt and Petrie).

There has been some movement to the Coalition in the seat markets, notably in Flinders, where Liberal member Greg Hunt has edged to very narrow favouritism. Other significant movements have been recorded in the Liberals’ favour in Banks ($3.50 to $2.25), Lindsay ($3.50 to $2.05), Page ($2.40 to $1.90), Lyons ($5.50 to $4), Chisholm ($5 to $3.75), although Labor remains favourites in each. However, there has actually been movement in Labor’s favour in Gilmore, where they are in from $1.30 to $1.18, with Liberal out from $4.50 to $4.75.

Of the independent contenders, Albury mayor Ken Mack is rated equally likely to succeed against Liberal member Sussan Ley in Farrer as Zali Steggall is against Tony Abbott in Warringah, each offering a payout of $2.00. Both are trumped by Rob Oakeshott in Cowper, the most highly fancied non-incumbent independent at $1.75. In Mallee, where Andrew Broad of the Nationals is retired hurt, Ladbrokes is offering $3 for an independent to win, be it Ray Kingston, Cecilia Moar or Jason Modica. (Sportsbet has it at $4.75). Dave Sharma is favoured to recover Wentworth for the Liberals from Kerryn Phelps, with the two respectively at $1.57 and $2.30.

Among the many features of the Poll Bludger election guide, you can find Ladbrokes’ seat odds listed on the bottom right of each of the electorate pages, which are linked to individually throughout this post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

775 comments on “Odds and sods”

Comments Page 4 of 16
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  2. Cat
    ” One final comment. I heard in passing a bizarre interview yesterday midday between Melissa Parkes and the ABC. She made some quite odd references to the costs of cancer treatments needed by “half of all Australians” as though half of us have cancer now. Quite odd. Her subsequent comments about the budget and costs also made no sense. Have a good day all.

    Melissa Parkes, ALP, or Melissa Price, Liberal Party doofus Anti Environment Minister in the Morrison government?”

    Sorry, I meant Melissa Price.

  6. The ABC drive show ran a slot last week asking if people were engaged in the election or already knew they were going to vote, with a clarifier that people didn’t have to say who they were voting for.

    Pretty much every response was that they had decided and would vote early as soon as they could. Many added they were voting Labor. Those who weren’t were in the “all pollies are the same, none tell the truth so I’ll vote independent” camp.

    Now that’s on the ABC and of course not exactly a reliable sample.

  8. swamp

    Yes I find it curious. Maybe not all ones though. Cuba does not strike me as imperialist but I don’t know if thats just the reality of the position they are in near a great power.

  9. jenauthor

    the other welfare spaces are why Labor is doing a review so all the low income welfare areas can be assessed and set at a reasonable level – especially where they cross-over between two or more benefits.

    I have thought this all along – it’s a complete review intended, not just a rise in Newstart to satisfy loud voices and make a headline. The welfare system needs a shakeout.

    Oh, and an economist on 24 this a.m. said that in order to keep their surplus, the LNP will have to control spending … no guesses as to whether that will include welfare and social services.

  13. |swamprat says:
    |Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 10:12 am
    |Do posters here think that most of the population has already made up its mind as to how they are |going to vote?

    After 6 years of the same government and no really big issues people just stop listening. The vote becomes a plebiscite on whether the opposition is competent enough. This time round the govt has set the competence bar quite low.

  14. EGW thanks for posting wider article. Liu is a calculated piece of work. Hope this getting attention has repercussions for her. As others have said, Labor moves swiftly on dealing with such issue in its party e.g. Daley, so LNP so should be held to the same account.

  15. Well… Cuba was homophobic as many deeply Catholic countries were, and Castro himself was, at least early on, violently homophobic and supported the campaign to exile or purge them.

  16. swamprat

    I think, given the number of non political events which look like dominating the landscape over the next few weeks (Easter, Anzac Day), immediately followed by the opening of the prepolls (April 29) that there will be little chance for any party to get messages out, so (bar the usual ‘black swan’ ‘outbreak of WWIII’ type qualifiers) what we’re seeing now is what we’ll get.

  17. From Antony Green
    “If Mr Dutton wins, there are 40 days after the return of the writ in which his eligibility can be challenged by the public.”

    Well worth a challenge on several grounds I would think.

  18. RatesAnalayst @ #144 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 10:12 am

    Having lived both very near Chisholm and in Sydney, to my untrained eye there are reasonably large differences in approach to life from Chinese migrants in the two places.

    The Chinese migrants I met in Sydney were much more likely to be observant Christians than the Chinese migrants I have met in and around Chisholm.

    The voting record on SSM would appear to to bear that out.

    What matters is which group would have their vote influenced by issues such as SSM?
    Most people would not determine their vote on this, but in the fundy nutter “Christian” community that Gladys is part of and wants to appeal to, a very high percentage would determine their vote on such matters.
    Gladys knows this, after all, she is one of them, and targets such messages at this group.
    The article from the Guardian which I posted is very informative.

  20. guytaur

    What do you mean”western cultural influence” in Cuba?

    Cuba is an hispanic country, Spanish plus African-Spanish… i would consider Cuba as part of the “west”?

  21. jenauthor @ #155 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 8:26 am

    Morrison is making a valiant attempt at his first ‘town hall’

    I wouldn’t take that too seriously. A town hall held on a weekday on a Tuesday is only going to attract generally elderly and rusted on L/NP types. Further, L/NP events like this are generally invite only and ID is checked at the door. Most unlike a certain other party where all comers are welcome, and hecklers are indulged.

    I follow the public meetings of Porter reasonably closely and he generally holds events during the day and on weekdays, which pretty much limits the attendance to the core L/NP demographic.

  23. Ancestor worship is a strong feature in Vietnam and I understand China.

    Many houses will have shrines to parents and grandparents and it’s not uncommon to have deathday parties to remember them.

    Pretty hard for this to occur if you don’t reproduce. 🙂

  24. Socrates @ #153 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 10:24 am

    Cat
    ” One final comment. I heard in passing a bizarre interview yesterday midday between Melissa Parkes and the ABC. She made some quite odd references to the costs of cancer treatments needed by “half of all Australians” as though half of us have cancer now. Quite odd. Her subsequent comments about the budget and costs also made no sense. Have a good day all.

    Melissa Parkes, ALP, or Melissa Price, Liberal Party doofus Anti Environment Minister in the Morrison government?”

    Sorry, I meant Melissa Price.

    This is a bit like statements that one in five Australians will suffer from a mental illness at some stage.
    It does not mean that at any time 20% of the population are mentally ill.

  26. Swamp

    As posted above Catholic Church.

    Catholicism did not come to the Americas until the West came. Their was civilisations before that. I don’t know what their culture was on homosexuality.

  27. Late Riser @ #173 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 8:44 am

    Socrates @ #168 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 10:41 am

    From Antony Green
    “If Mr Dutton wins, there are 40 days after the return of the writ in which his eligibility can be challenged by the public.”

    That seems like an odd thing to say. Do you know what prompted it?

    It came up during the s.44 debacle. Outside of that 40 day period, only Parliament can challenge the eligibility of a sitting member.

  28. Late Riser says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 10:44 am

    Socrates @ #168 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 10:41 am

    From Antony Green
    “If Mr Dutton wins, there are 40 days after the return of the writ in which his eligibility can be challenged by the public.”

    That seems like an odd thing to say. Do you know what prompted it?

    Probably the Constitution! 🙂

  29. grimace @ #176 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 10:45 am

    guytaur @ #170 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 8:43 am

    Interesting that the ABC showed Morrison Town Hall. So far not done for Mr Shorten.

    How is he going? ScoMo does not have a good track record with unscripted public interaction.

    —
    I saw about 12 minutes of it. He is doing a pretty good job of it preaching to the converted though. A few jokes and giggles for the blue rinse ladies to chortle at. He is a much better communicator when the drops the Mr Shouty Face approach.

  30. LR

    I do not know. It was posted on Antony Green’s Twitter account and highlighted on the Guardian political feed.

    Speaking of Twitter, when will the media say ScumMo is NOT promising to build a Fast Train to Geelong:

    “Jane Norman (@janeenorman)

    The Morrison bus has arrived in Corangamite, held by Liberal Sarah Henderson. It’s so marginal, it’s now considered notionally Labor. The Government’s spending billions here on a fast rail project it hopes will save this seat #auspol #ausvotes”

    There will not be any actual spending on this alleged project until $50 million in 2023/24. So they will not even start planning until ScumMo’s third term. The $2 billion promise is a Very Big Lie to Geelong. IF it is real, ScumMo or Infrastructure Minister McCormack should be able to say:
    – What sort of trains will run on the line? Top speed?
    – What will be the line frequency? How many trains per hour?
    – Where will the services terminate at the Melbourne end? Which station in the CBD has the track capacity?
    – Where will the trains be stabled? How many are being bought? Where is the maintenance depot?

    The Geelong VBL makes Snowy II look like a well thought out plan.

  32. The collapse in the One Nation vote means that if either Faruqi or Sarah Hanson young gets re-elected. Labor and the Greens could have as many 39 seats in the Senate.

  34. @nytimes tweets

    President Trump has sold himself as a self-made billionaire but a Times investigation found that he received more than $400 million from his father’s empire, much of it through dubious tax schemes during the 1990s, including instances of outright fraud. https://nyti.ms/2ycj05o

  36. EB @ #180 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 8:50 am

    grimace @ #176 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 10:45 am

    guytaur @ #170 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 8:43 am

    Interesting that the ABC showed Morrison Town Hall. So far not done for Mr Shorten.

    How is he going? ScoMo does not have a good track record with unscripted public interaction.

    —
    I saw about 12 minutes of it. He is doing a pretty good job of it preaching to the converted though. A few jokes and giggles for the blue rinse ladies to chortle at. He is a much better communicator when the drops the Mr Shouty Face approach.

    Thanks.

    Standing up in front of an Liberal Party branch meeting for a foot rub is a hell of a lot easier than going up unscripted against all comers in a set you don’t hold.

    Labor needs to insist that any such town hall type format is comprised entirely of all comers, not carefully vetted and hand picked Liberal Party members. Let Shorten tear ScoMo apart in front of a national audience.

  38. “There has been some movement to the Coalition in the seat markets, notably in Flinders, where Liberal member Greg Hunt has edged to very narrow favouritism.”…

    A frontbencher like Hunt being in a position of just “(edging) to very narrow favouritism” spells the troubles of an Armageddon-level result for the Coalition.

    When you are cornered into defending your safest seats, it means that you are ready for the political-BBQ… (you being the meat, btw).

  42. I think Bluey should know he is on a hiding to nothing when it comes to the “Who won the day?” competition with the West newspaper.
    Today the West has the score, Morrison 3, Shorten 1 and Tie, 1.
    The “Tie” is today’s score – or at least for yesterday because both M and S agreed to a debate in Perth. Morrison, it will be remembered, got the first point because, well, he announced the election.
    Now the Stokes’s rag is proclaiming the debate as a “coup” – for Stoke’s and his media outfit one supposes.
    Further predictions are useless Bluey………..Shorten will lose the “Won the Day” contest; he will lose the “debate”; he will never get the editorial support of the West and finally, an opinion poll a day or two out from the election, published in the West, will proclaim the election is either “too close to call” or a “narrow Morrison victory”.
    The West has been outrageous in the last few days as some of my fellow Sandgropers have already said here. On the other hand, the confected “serious problem for Labor with Israel (Parkes and Wilson)” has now been relegated to almost minor status, while the EV scare seems to have disappeared completely. Mind you, this has not stopped the good old West saying that “policemen, teachers and nurses” are all set to lose with Labor’s tax regime.
    Gee the West is a dog-awful paper and were it not for the TV mag and the cryptic for a discounted price – like heaps of other West Australians – I would not bother to give it the time of day.

  43. Grime,

    That piece in the Aus is by Dennis Shanahan, who’s still waiting for the 2007 narrowing to save John Howard.

    Don’t dare criticize his take on Newspoll – the Aus knows best, because they OWN Newspoll.

  44. Health care

    https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/missing-out-on-basic-healthcare-australians-spend-34-billion-a-year-on-out-of-pocket-health-costs-20190415-p51ebe.html

    Consumer Health Forum chief executive Leanne Wells called for action from both major parties to address spiralling costs borne by patients across the health system.
    :::
    Ms Wells said her research showed that Australians wanted certainty about being able to access the right healthcare when they needed it, and were not reassured by the “piecemeal approach” to funding through election promises.

    “If we really want to strengthen our health system what would be really helpful for the electorate to see a long term plan,” she said.

    Interview with Richard Di Natale on ABC RN this morning:

    https://www.abc.net.au/radio/adelaide/programs/am/healthcare-debate-piecemeal,-ad-hoc,-says-richard-di-natale/11018504

    We’re not actually looking at system-wide reform, and it’s good that the Labor Party have raised the issue of out-of-pocket costs, but they are a huge problem right across the health system.

    They’re problem with medicines, big PBS co-payments. We know that people don’t fill their prescriptions because they can’t often afford it.

    GP visits, specialist visits, imaging — and it is right across the board.

    It is particularly an issue for people with chronic illnesses. We know that many people in the community now suffer from things like diabetes, heart disease, high blood pressure — a range of chronic illnesses, and out-of-pocket costs are a huge issue.

    So what we actually need is system-wide reform, Sabra. We need to invest much more in prevention, we need to ensure we’ve got a rational model for funding our healthcare system, a single funder.

    We need to reform the way we deliver primary care through team-based care, making better use of allied health professionals, GPs.

    We need to move away from fee-for-service to more outcome-based models.
    :::
    What it does is it rewards GPs for seeing people, but it doesn’t reward them for achieving good health outcomes for their community.

    So, things like patient enrolment, where people are registered with a GP, making sure that the GPs are funded to provide things like nurse practitioners, a physiotherapist, allied healthcare professionals, team-based care, keeping people well — doing the work we know that actually provides better value for money, but most importantly it good for patients.

    At the moment it is a very fragmented system.

    We’ve also got to tune this system with private health. We need to move away from this model that sends $7 billion into the private health insurance industry, and we’ve got to move towards universal healthcare…

  46. Burgey swamprat

    Coalition insiders I know just want the whole thing over, and have been the same since our Victorian election in November. They are sick of being blamed in the organisation for failing to sell the product – when the problem IS the product rather than the sales team.

    I think lots of these level people will walk once it’s all over. It’s one thing to have conservative views but I think many of them just can’t stomach the current iterations of the Liberal and National Parties.

  47. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/voters-who-once-turned-on-turnbull-are-flocking-back/news-story/aaa9cccd033099fef632a820cf393cf5

    Scott Morrison’s successful ­appeal to disaffected Coalition voters who moved to One Nation since the 2016 election, compared with Malcolm Turnbull, was also revealed.

    It was Turnbull’s weakness in drawing back lost conservative voters that was a large part of why he was removed as Liberal leader after losing 30 consecutive Newspoll surveys to Labor on a two-party preferred basis.

    So there we have it folks. Mr. Shanahan reveals why Mr. Turnbull was keelhauled – until now a military grade secret.

    and

    reminds me – What’s for lunch Muriel ❓

    Bread rolls – sliced beef, tomato, lettuce, onion, cheese ❓ pickles.

    In regard to the lost conservative voters – sound like a ready market for GPS doodahs or maybe a compass. For sure a mirror on a stick to find the individual backsides.

    Sorry no Outline – seems to be out for most sites (Washington Post still Works).

  49. Antony Green

    I should point out that any candidate can be challenged in the Court of Disputed returns in the 40 days after the election. I expect a few challenges to be made on the peripheral edges of citizenship law beyond those already ruled on by the High Court.

  50. According to the Guardian Morrison is at a seniors’ forum, with Sarah Henderson.

    So one would expect only seniors to be present.

    Facts matter.

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