Odds and sods

Betting odds continue to point towards a sweeping Labor victory, even as intelligence from both sides of politics suggests a much tighter contest.

Speaking on RN Breakfast on Friday, Ben Oquist of progressive think tank the Australia Institute voiced the beltway consensus that “the bookies have got this one wrong at the moment – they’re forecasting a much bigger Labor victory than anybody seems to be predicting”. Betting markets at first appeared to respond, if not to Oquist specifically, then to the view coming through in media reports that both major parties were expecting a tight contest. Labrokes was offering $5 on a Coalition on Thursday, but by Sunday this was in to $3.50. Then came Newspoll, showing Labor maintaining its lead, and the Coalition blew back out to $4.50.

The individual seat markets have been more consistent, pointing to a Labor landslide of even greater dimensions than the one currently projected by BludgerTrack, which I would have thought quite a bit too favourable for Labor, particularly in Queensland. Ladbrokes rates Labor as favourites in five Coalition-held seats in New South Wales (Banks, Gilmore, Page, Reid and Robertson), four in Victoria (Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin and Dunkley), three in Western Australia (Hasluck, Pearce and Swan), one in South Australia (Boothby), and a Kevin Rudd-equalling nine in Queensland (Bonner, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Leichhardt and Petrie).

There has been some movement to the Coalition in the seat markets, notably in Flinders, where Liberal member Greg Hunt has edged to very narrow favouritism. Other significant movements have been recorded in the Liberals’ favour in Banks ($3.50 to $2.25), Lindsay ($3.50 to $2.05), Page ($2.40 to $1.90), Lyons ($5.50 to $4), Chisholm ($5 to $3.75), although Labor remains favourites in each. However, there has actually been movement in Labor’s favour in Gilmore, where they are in from $1.30 to $1.18, with Liberal out from $4.50 to $4.75.

Of the independent contenders, Albury mayor Ken Mack is rated equally likely to succeed against Liberal member Sussan Ley in Farrer as Zali Steggall is against Tony Abbott in Warringah, each offering a payout of $2.00. Both are trumped by Rob Oakeshott in Cowper, the most highly fancied non-incumbent independent at $1.75. In Mallee, where Andrew Broad of the Nationals is retired hurt, Ladbrokes is offering $3 for an independent to win, be it Ray Kingston, Cecilia Moar or Jason Modica. (Sportsbet has it at $4.75). Dave Sharma is favoured to recover Wentworth for the Liberals from Kerryn Phelps, with the two respectively at $1.57 and $2.30.

Among the many features of the Poll Bludger election guide, you can find Ladbrokes’ seat odds listed on the bottom right of each of the electorate pages, which are linked to individually throughout this post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

775 comments on “Odds and sods”

Comments Page 2 of 16
1 2 3 … 16

  1. Confessions says: Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 7:46 am

    Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump

    So horrible to watch the massive fire at Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. Perhaps flying water tankers could be used to put it out. Must act quickly!

    **********************************************************

    ‘Fire Expert’ Trump Tells Paris How To Put Out Notre Dame Cathedral Fire

    Trump’s knowlege of firefighting is probably on par with his knowledge of the Constitution and how government works, which is to say that he knows nothing……. but he is getting ready to go fight the fire

  2. A primary challenger to Trump emerges.

    The Lead CNNVerified account@TheLeadCNN
    45m45 minutes ago
    “Jake, I’m announcing that I’m running for President… as a Republican against the President in 2020.”

    Former Gov. Bill Weld officially announces he is challenging President Trump for the GOP nomination. https://cnn.it/2UkiXO7

  6. ajm says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 7:38 am
    Dog’s Breakfast @ #37 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 7:27 am

    R and n?
    My guess is “Rex and nath “

    ———————————————————————————————-

    That’s about it, thanks ajm.
    Amazing how the PB community has ‘normalized’ those two. They will take much comfort from that.

  7. The betting odds are an OK diversion in the absence of polling but it’s difficult to see why they’d have much predictive value. At the same time the official (“it’s closer than everyone thinks”) line coming from both camps that William mentions at the top of the thread is highly predictable. No one wants to come over as complacent and, in the case of the coalition, they don’t want to come over as having given up. Best evidence is current polling which puts the ALP modestly ahead on a consistent basis. Polling error, as in the Victorian election, could upset the applecart, and could occur in either direction- meaning anywhere between a narrow Coalition victory, in majority or minority, or a thumping Labor win shouldn’t be a surprising result.

  8. James McGrath has worked for Santos and Crosby Textor. Showed typical fury and indignation when Larissa accused him.

    McGrath performed various roles for the UK Conservative Party 2002-08. McGrath worked as a political operative for conservative campaign managers Crosby Textor (founded by Lynton Crosby and Mark Textor). Crosby Textor have lobbied on behalf of the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (APPEA) in Queensland, and have worked for the Queensland Resources Council. APPEA is dominated by foreign gas interests… etc, etc.

    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/people/revolving-doors/james-mcgrath/

  10. I wonder whether Jim Chalmers might be a better choice than Bowen for Treasurer. Bowen has wanted the position for so long I’m sure he’d disagree, but Chalmers is very calm and clear.

  11. Even on Gladys Liu’s own version of events, her statement is indefensible. I imagine that a large number of Chinese Australians would be appalled at being characterised as homophobic jerks. Imagine if anyone else imputed that an entire ethnic community shared prejudiced views. It would be called out as racist. The fact that she is a member of that community is neither here nor there.

  13. Good Morning

    Michael Rowland just did a good interview with Frydenberg. He asked if the LNP are going to disendows Gladys Liu. Frydenberg went on about how the passing of the Marriage Equality legislation was proof they are inclusive. Then no they were not going to disendorse her. Rowland then asked what voters especially LGBTI ones would think in Chisholm. Frydenberg basically dismissed it as a concern though I can’t remember his exact words.

    Frydenberg showed more concern for things than people in that interview IMO. Appropriate comments about Notre Dame but the contrast with his Liu comments were to me stark.

  14. In response to Notre Dame this morning (paraphrasing, but close to the real words)..
    Shorten- Paris has lost it soul this morning
    Morrison- I have been there with my wife!

    There are certain narcissists, psychopaths, out-of-touch self obsessives, whatever, who make themselves the subject of every sentence- use the words I and we constantly. Morrison, Trump and Abbott are 3.

  17. Fess

    Yep. Considering how frickin useless Trump would be at anything that remotely resembling physical work.
    He is proficient in being a narcissistic con man, and not much else.

  19. I love the way the Coalition have taken ownership of the SSM plebiscite.

    On ABC TV this morning Josh Frydenberg was asked about Gladys Liu’s comments, and what would happen to her candidacy?

    His answer: “Bill Shorten… SSM plebiscite… great candidate… Bill Shorten… yada-yada… MELISSA PARKE!!!!”

    Question: ” Yeah, Melissa Parke was sacked. What are YOU going to do about Gladys?”

    Nice point, but I do wish the ABC would have some Labor people on occasionally.

  20. Betting markets got it right with NSW State election although quite a few PBers including me expressed their doubts on those odds. The betting markets for NSW state election change significantly after Daley Asian slur.
    Although it is longway from federal election date and things can change, we should not dismiss the current market odds. Hopefully they hold till election night.

  21. @ezraklein on Sanders tax returns

    I’d say the most embarrassing thing in here is that 3.4% to charity in a year you make more than $560,000 is really low, even if you’ve got an old book where the proceeds go to charity.

  23. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    Peter FitzSimons writes about how he handles social media trolls,
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/my-three-rules-to-beat-the-trolls-20190415-p51eeh.html

    Some excellent advice regarding online trolls.

    It is true that trolls gain some currency among each other by boasting about who has blocked them, but so what? They are lonely I tell you, and having lots of people block you is, in some strange way, almost compensation for the fact that no-one even bothered replying to your 21st birthday party to tell you they weren’t coming. At least, this time, they bothered looking at your name long enough to press a button telling you to get nicked.

    Ask not for whom the bell tolls my trolls. It tolls for thee. Or something like that …

    Or, more or less – is there any point in hating somebody if they don’t know about it ❓

    Good morning in Newcastle – 🌞

  24. swamprat@8:03am
    No she is not Cash. She is Chinese.
    Remember SSM results in Banks and Bennelong electorates where Chinese are in significant number. If you don’t remember SSM was ‘No’ in Banks and Bennelong. So I believe that she is expressing her community and her views on SSM. I see this villification of people who did not support SSM continues on PB.

  25. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/16/if-you-read-life-on-the-breadline-you-got-to-know-the-humans-behind-the-headlines

    Almost three million Australians live in poverty, and the vast majority of them aren’t prone on our streets, sleeping in doorways, or holding cardboard signs on city corners. They walk around like you and me, and it’s perilously easy to brush past them in our busyness, to not really look.
    :::
    You saw that they are exhausted by the bureaucracy, bemused by the onerous obligations, shamed by society’s judgement of them as having some kind of character flaw or weakness rather than just being out of a job or being disabled, and that very often this made them question the value of their own lives.

    You saw that despite this, they work damn hard – sometimes harder than many employed people – just to make it through their days.

    It’s time to raise Newstart now.

  26. Ven

    Homophobia is homophobia. She is being condemned for seeming to accept and excuse those community views. Not for saying they exist.

  27. So horrible to watch the massive fire at Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. Perhaps flying water tankers could be used to put it out. Must act quickly!

    Yes. Send the flying water tankers. That’ll surely work!

  28. Grassroots environmental activism:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/16/environment-crisis-wilderness-society-pursues-parties-over-election-commitments

    Lyndon Schneiders, the national campaigns director of the Wilderness Society, wrote widely to politicians on Monday seeking agreement to an ambitious legislative and regulatory overhaul – but the hurry up is directed predominantly at Labor, which has offered an in-principle commitment but has not yet produced a final policy, and the people likely to form the crossbench in the next parliament.

    The campaign intervention, which follows significant controversy over a rushed environmental approval for the controversial Adani coal project which the Morrison government ticked off just before calling the election, comes as the green group has amassed a campaign war chest of $400,000 from members and supporters, allowing it to run substantial field operations in targeted seats.

    The society is pursuing billboard advertising in Flinders, Reid, Bonner, Kooyong, Warringah and Boothby, with cinema advertising booked in those electorates. It will also fund digital ads in Bonner, Reid, Warringah, Kooyong, Boothby, Flinders, Wentworth, Mayo, Corangamite and Page.

    It is also running field campaigns in two marginal seats – Bonner and Reid – with 12,000 voters already contacted, and a target of 29,000. The group is concentrating efforts in areas where voters are more likely to be willing to change their vote over environmental issues.
    :::
    The letter warns the Wilderness Society “will be informing our members and supporters, and voters in key areas, about the environmental policies of parties and candidates. We will be looking at both the commitments themselves, and also whether or not there is a credible pathway proposed to deliver them”.

    “Our baseline for assessing success is whether or not the policy framework will turn around Australia’s environment crisis. This is not the same as assessing whether or not the policies are an improvement on the status quo.”

  30. @liamalexander tweets

    Frydenburg: “The LNP stands for tolerance.”

    Gladys Liu: “Chinese people come to Australia because they want good … things for the next generation, not to be destroyed — by same-sex, transgender, intergender. All this rubbish. To them, they are just ridiculous rubbish.”
    #auspol

  32. More from Captain Carnival Barker on the Notre Dame fire.

    Abby D. PhillipVerified account@abbydphillip
    4h4 hours ago
    Trump on the Notre Dame fire: “They think it was caused by renovation. And I hope that’s the reason. Renovation, what’s that all about, but it’s a terrible sight to behold.”

  33. Warwick Smith of the University of Melbourne has a macroeconomically literate piece in The Conversation today:

    The reality is that we don’t know how low unemployment could fall in modern Australia because we haven’t made any genuine attempt to push it below 5% for decades.

    A modern-day policy commitment to full employment, along lines inspired by what we did after the war, could lift wages, reduce inequality, drive increases in productivity and, most importantly, provide full employment for the more than two million Australians who are currently unemployed, underemployed or discouraged attempting to get work.

    https://theconversation.com/memories-in-1961-labor-promised-to-boost-the-deficit-to-fight-unemployment-the-promise-won-115376

  34. The last questioner on Q & A described herself as a farmer’s daughter and a small business woman who regarded the environment as her number one issue. Despite the stereotypes bandied about regarding the demographic and personal characteristics of Greens voters and supporters, she indicated she will be voting Greens at the upcoming election. Nice end to a rather fractious episode where the three women shone for their sane and civilised responses.

  35. As evidenced by Gladys Liu’s comments, the basic difference between Labor and Coalition policies is the priority given to “making money” as opposed to “dealing with social issues”.

    The whole Coalition pitch is that tax cuts, rebates, profits take primacy. If there’s any cash left over (which there rarely is) we can look at other matters.

  36. Well, it looks like The Greens have settled on their issue du jour if Labor get elected.

    ‘Raise Newstart now!’ they will chirrup endlessly like political Indian Mynah Birds.

    Knowing full well that Labor have committed to a root and branch review of all Welfare payments, should they be privileged enough to be elected by the Australian people.

    Hopefully, one day, The Greens will just grow up. Bipartisanship works both ways.

  37. The main campaign ad I have seen quite a few times now, is the debt and deficit one by the coalition. Something about a Bill Australia can’t afford.

  38. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/elections-shouldn-t-be-bought-push-for-donation-limits-to-prevent-corruption-20190415-p51ec7.html

    The way cash is raised to run political campaigns is resulting in “shocking” levels of corruption, Australians are being warned, in a new push for drastic reforms to donation laws, including swift disclosure of big donors.

    The call for reform includes a warning about “war chest corruption” as the federal election campaign begins, with voters unable to discover who is paying the political parties at fundraising events in the weeks ahead.

    Former Victorian Supreme Court judge Stephen Charles, a key adviser in the formation of the state’s corruption watchdog, said Australia needed the stricter laws to curb “payments for access” to elected leaders.

  39. Cat

    Last I looked the unions were not the Greens and they have joined the raise Newstart push.

    The theory is that Labor wants a review because they want to raise the rate to a level that is unacceptable to activist groups. Like the Unemployed Workers Union.

  40. Dog’s Breakfast
    says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 8:12 am
    ajm says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 7:38 am
    Dog’s Breakfast @ #37 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 7:27 am
    R and n?
    My guess is “Rex and nath “
    ———————————————————————————————-
    That’s about it, thanks ajm.
    Amazing how the PB community has ‘normalized’ those two. They will take much comfort from that.
    ______________________________________
    I know! It’s almost as if the blog is not designed to cater specifically to the prejudices of a Dog’s Breakfast! Who knew!

  41. “How will you pay for your promises?”

    The same way that the federal government pays for everything that it buys, thousands of times every single day.

    The Commonwealth Parliament authorizes the Treasury to spend.

    The Treasury instructs the central bank to credit the relevant Exchange Settlement Balances (accounts that commercial banks hold at the Reserve Bank of Australia).

    The commercial banks credit the relevant checking accounts (the accounts that individuals and businesses hold at commercial banks).

    Your real question is: Does this extra spending have to be offset by spending cuts and / or tax increases to make it non-inflationary?

    The answer is: No, right now there is ample scope for net increases to the federal government’s spending without causing accelerating inflation. The economy is far short of full employment. NAIRU full employment is not genuine full employment.

    We’ll know that the economy is at full employment when the unemployment rate is 1 or 2 percent, time-related under-employment is zero, and hidden unemployment is zero.

    Today the unemployment rate is 5 percent, time-related under-employment is 8 percent, and there are 900,000 hidden unemployed people in Australia.

    As long as the extra spending is targeted correctly, the federal government could probably increase its net spending by about $50 billion per year at the moment without causing an inflation problem.

  42. Oh dear another scare campaign bites the dust.

    @janeenorman tweets

    Scott Morrison says Australia’s been “working quietly behind the scenes with the Red Cross” to find a way of bringing the Sharrouf kids home from Syria but says there are significant hurdles to clear #auspol

  43. Could I please say that my ethnic Chinese friends are greatly insulted that the whole community would be tarred as homophobic.

    There are many very conservative Chinese voters, but there are also a great number of socially progressive ethnic Chinese voters in Australia. Ven’s implying that the entire community is homophobic is pretty racist.

    FWIW Chisholm, with its huge Chinese and broader Asian migrant communities, voted 62% for marriage equality. Liu does not represent the views of this electorate.

  44. Notre Dame fire will overwhelm election coverage today

    To be fair, to many voters, a “cat stuck up a tree” story would do that right now…

  45. Expat

    I believe that. There are many family and friends of all those Chinese people in the Melbourne part of the Sydney Mardi Gras just for starters.

    It is an insult to the Chinese community as much as the LGBTI community to say such a general comment.

  46. Two weeks ago he was rabbiting on about “not risking one Australian life” to rescue terrorists’ kids, as if it was the kids’ fault.

  47. In response to the advice of the US President, the Fire Authority in Paris said that water bombing the Cathedral would do more harm to it. It was not a good idea.

  48. Liu’s comments go against her party’s recent concern for youth mental health and suicide. At Sunday’s rally, Scott made youth mental health and suicide a priority. There is a a high rate of youth mental health and suicide in the LGBTIQ community, with young people struggling to come to terms with their identity and being accepted. Liu’s words of such people being ‘just ridiculous rubbish’ as well as opposing Safe Schools and same-sex marriage all fly in the face of trying to tackle youth mental health and suicide. Not good enough. And another example of this party saying one thing, and acting in a different way.

Comments Page 2 of 16
1 2 3 … 16

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *