Odds and sods

Betting odds continue to point towards a sweeping Labor victory, even as intelligence from both sides of politics suggests a much tighter contest.

Speaking on RN Breakfast on Friday, Ben Oquist of progressive think tank the Australia Institute voiced the beltway consensus that “the bookies have got this one wrong at the moment – they’re forecasting a much bigger Labor victory than anybody seems to be predicting”. Betting markets at first appeared to respond, if not to Oquist specifically, then to the view coming through in media reports that both major parties were expecting a tight contest. Labrokes was offering $5 on a Coalition on Thursday, but by Sunday this was in to $3.50. Then came Newspoll, showing Labor maintaining its lead, and the Coalition blew back out to $4.50.

The individual seat markets have been more consistent, pointing to a Labor landslide of even greater dimensions than the one currently projected by BludgerTrack, which I would have thought quite a bit too favourable for Labor, particularly in Queensland. Ladbrokes rates Labor as favourites in five Coalition-held seats in New South Wales (Banks, Gilmore, Page, Reid and Robertson), four in Victoria (Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin and Dunkley), three in Western Australia (Hasluck, Pearce and Swan), one in South Australia (Boothby), and a Kevin Rudd-equalling nine in Queensland (Bonner, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Leichhardt and Petrie).

There has been some movement to the Coalition in the seat markets, notably in Flinders, where Liberal member Greg Hunt has edged to very narrow favouritism. Other significant movements have been recorded in the Liberals’ favour in Banks ($3.50 to $2.25), Lindsay ($3.50 to $2.05), Page ($2.40 to $1.90), Lyons ($5.50 to $4), Chisholm ($5 to $3.75), although Labor remains favourites in each. However, there has actually been movement in Labor’s favour in Gilmore, where they are in from $1.30 to $1.18, with Liberal out from $4.50 to $4.75.

Of the independent contenders, Albury mayor Ken Mack is rated equally likely to succeed against Liberal member Sussan Ley in Farrer as Zali Steggall is against Tony Abbott in Warringah, each offering a payout of $2.00. Both are trumped by Rob Oakeshott in Cowper, the most highly fancied non-incumbent independent at $1.75. In Mallee, where Andrew Broad of the Nationals is retired hurt, Ladbrokes is offering $3 for an independent to win, be it Ray Kingston, Cecilia Moar or Jason Modica. (Sportsbet has it at $4.75). Dave Sharma is favoured to recover Wentworth for the Liberals from Kerryn Phelps, with the two respectively at $1.57 and $2.30.

Among the many features of the Poll Bludger election guide, you can find Ladbrokes’ seat odds listed on the bottom right of each of the electorate pages, which are linked to individually throughout this post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

775 comments on “Odds and sods”

  1. Boerwar @ #496 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 5:37 pm

    Socrates
    The Philistines got a bad press from the Murdoch rags of the day.
    Mr Shorten should immediately announce that a Labor Government will donate $5 million to the rebuilding of this core icon of Western Civilization.
    More wedges than you can poke a stick at.

    Yeah, I thought the Coalition were all for glorifying and preserving Western Civilization?

  2. On the ‘rebranding’ of Liberal candidates.

    I see that Tim Wilson and Dave Sharma have gone with the “Modern Liberal” tag, and changed their colour to light blue (from the Royal blue of the Liberals). Does this mean they are ‘Liberal-lite”

    Maybe they are hoping to just change the word ‘girl’ to ‘liberal’ in this 1980 song “Modern Girl”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkjiGgJF5Bs

  3. Ali france and peter Dutton have debated face to face on ABC Radio this afternoon. Check the Guardian for details of what was said.

  4. Greensborough Growler @ #499 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 5:44 pm

    lizzie @ #497 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 5:41 pm

    GG

    I think Sinodinos was denying that this arvo.

    Also – if ScoMo wants to be PM for all Australians he shouldn’t make his decision on Notre Dame from his own religion – maybe have a caucus meeting?

    Of course he was. but, it wasn’t labor putting it out there but the Financial press who are all well known Communists.

    Perhaps Smugmo just does not like Quasimodo.

  5. yabba @ 2.40pm

    It always amazes me that, even in this day and age, there are still so many gullible folks who believe in this sort of nonsense. After all, there are enough splinters from the cross to build a decent sized home and I’ve read that there are up to 18 recorded Holy Prepuces dotted around Europe. Poor Jesus – I imagine as soon as one circumcision was performed, it grew back again. What a life!

    Many years ago I visited Jerusalem and went along the Via Dolorosa, as well as visiting the Church of the Holy Sepulchre etc. Nothing but beggars asking for handouts from one end of it to the other – and I’m not talking about poor people. All because some deluded empress fell to her knees in some sort of rapture years ago.

  6. in breaking news:

    PatriciaKarvelas

    Verified account

    @PatsKarvelas
    50m50 minutes ago
    More
    Arthur Sinodinis says on #afternoonbriefing Tony Abbott won’t be drafted to the leadership #auspol #AusVotes19

  7. Notre Dame Cathedral is a significant building that defines our Civilization. It would be churlish for Australia not to contribute to it’s rebuilding if that is what going to happen.

  8. Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 6:09 pm

    Notre Dame Cathedral is a significant building that defines our Civilization. It would be churlish for Australia not to contribute to it’s rebuilding if that is what going to happen.

    They can take it out of what we’re paying for the subs. 🙂

  9. I love the sight of Liberal Leadershit in the middle of an election campaign and look forward to it being met with the same level of hysteria from our MSM that an outbreak of Labor Leadershit would have been met with had the situation been reversed.

  10. Barney in Mui Ne @ #510 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 6:13 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 6:09 pm

    Notre Dame Cathedral is a significant building that defines our Civilization. It would be churlish for Australia not to contribute to it’s rebuilding if that is what going to happen.

    They can take it out of what we’re paying for the subs. 🙂

    It actually transcends religious and cultural importance. It’s a defining part of world civilization. I hope we are still part of that.

  11. Confessions says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 8:28 am

    Victoria @ #61 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 6:24 am

    Morning all

    Even with the Notre dame fire, Trump has it insert himself. When will the insanity cease

    And not to commiserate at the destruction of an iconic piece of history, but to question the fire-fighting methods!
    ***********************
    Don’t forget, his suggestion for fire prevention was to sweep the forests…

  12. Kevin Bonham Retweeted

    damon muller

    @damonism
    6m6 minutes ago
    More
    I’ve just been robopolled for the division of Macquarie (I know because they read out the candidates and I looked them up). I’ve never lived in NSW, let alone Macquarie. This is why seat polling is so great.

  13. “Yeah, I thought the Coalition were all for glorifying and preserving Western Civilization?”

    Evidently France is not part of western civilisation. Bad luck for Rousseau and the impressionists. Still, the dangers of socialism must be stamped out at any cost. France + catholic = evil.

    I am an atheist but like GG I do think that Notre Dame is iconic. I have sat in that building and thought it beautiful, an architectural marvel. The sense of light and space above you is quite wonderful. If ScumMo stays PM I suspect we will be burning books before long.

  14. Stephen Koukoulas
    ‏Verified account @TheKouk
    49m49 minutes ago

    RBA is pulling the rug out from the Liberal Party’s already fragile campaign
    Today’s Board Minutes mention “weak”, “slow” or “decline” in referencing growth over 50 times
    RBA meets in 3 weeks & issues updated forecasts on 10 May, 8 days before the poll. Expect it to be downbeat

    Oh and #libspill on twitter lol.

  15. Bluey Report Day 6

    Bluey rates today another slow day in our vibrant political paradise.

    Bluey notest\ that Sc*m* reckons that Shorten lies and lies and lies and that Labor policies are all garbage, hiss, boo, ya, suck. This approach might sell vegemite, but Bluey doubts it.

    Bluey notes that DiNatale is turning himself into a political ambulance chaser. Those poor Sharrouf kids have been co-opted as Greens vote bait. But Bluey reckons the Greens have an excellent opportunity to demonstrate that they can, after 30 years, deliver something in the real world. The Greens should give some of their more aggressive hacks some spears and deploy them into Syria by way of being a Light Mobile Force. Maybe the several hundred thousand armed and dangerous and largely out-of-control real killers in Syria will laugh themselves to death, thus enabling the Greens to liberate the Sharrouf kids.

    Bluey notes that Ms Liu is a not-so-closet values trog. Right into it. Sank the slipper into the LGBTIQ communities and marriage equality while she was at it. ‘Rubbish’, she blarted vehemently. What did impress Bluey was that she was prepared to cry ‘Fake News!’ the nanosecond she was sprung. No eyelid batted. As easy as Trump. The problem was that the rant was recorded. Liu may not get up but Bluey reckons she is a Liberals natural. Bluey notes that Liu was bragging about mobilizing the Chinese vote when she backed the Banks campaign, thereby delivering the only win for the Liberals in their last debacle. Bluey suspects that Ms Lieu has Hong Kong connections. Bluey notes that Labor has taken the sensible step of selecting a candidate from Taiwan. Buey has absolutely no idea about how Honk Kong v Taiwan plays out in terms of actual votes.

    Mr Abbott did a bit of oxygen theft by reminding everyone that he is still available to take over from Morrison. Bluey reckons another day, another Liberal disunity event.

    Bluey has noted a remarkable diminution of stunts in this election campaign. In his attempts to prove that he is not a phoney, Morrison has poured some beer on his head, bowled a bowling ball, and backed and unbacked the Dogs, beeped the horn of a loader, and loaded a drum on a conveyor belt. Man of the people. Canavan has eaten an onion. Some dippie from Tassie wore a sombrero. Shorten has kissed a baby.

    Bluey wonders why Frydenberg and Morrison keep lying about what Treasury did or did not do and/or did or did not tell them. The peeps at Treasury can read the entrails as well as Mr Bowe and they reckon they are going to be working for a decent Government in just 33 sleeps. So Treasury is not backwards in coming forwards. Gaetjens might be a Liberal plant but he is playing a straight bat in the best traditions of the APS. Bluey reckons that if Treasury reckon wtte Morrison and Frydenberg are lying then everyone is going to believe Treasury. So why do Morrison and Frydenberg bother? Bluey reckons because they have trumped themselves.

    Bluey was saddened by the Notre Dame fire. He once swam up the Seine for a squizz at the rose windows, for a Monstrance full of the COT, and for a listen to the organ. Good stuff. He is glad that the Crown of Thorns survived the fire. This is possibly a miracle. While some blood and bone of Jesus would have been preferable as relics, this was not possible because Jesus rose body and soul into Heaven. No bones about that. So the next best relics were bits of earthly material that had come into direct contact with Jesus: the Holy Cross and the Crown of Thorns, with the more theoretical Holy Grail being thrown in for good measure. Bluey notes that a small forest of jujube thorn trees must have been sacrificed to the thorn trade during the heyday of relic worshipping. Bluey thinks that, provided the Cathedral burnt down because some under paid, and over-worked day labourer left a blow torch on while he took a kip in the rafters, the death of a Cathedral will have no impact on the election. But, but, but… if Morrison has said that the Coalition will not provide a donation then Shorten should nip in and offer a $5 million donation from the people of Australia. No brainer.

    Mr Anthony Green, a well-known heart throb in some MILF circles according to one of Bluey’s reliable sources, has given everyone pause by broadcasting the rule that says there is a 40 day window to take seat winners to the court of disputed returns over whether they are eligible. This does apply to S44. The beauty of this is that the Government of the day cannot protect S44 malfeasants during the 40 day window. Bluey seems to recall that there might have been a baker’s dozen of potential S44 victims in the last parliament who were protected by Morrison. And what about the snouters who have been raking it in from the taxpayers on the side?

    Bluey has noticed that The Wilderness Society is trying to badger the Majors into saying something about wildlife. Bluey reckons that TWIS will get fobbed off by the majors because the Greens have locked up the environmentalist votes. TWIS can go talk to Di Natale but there is no point. Meanwhile, Labor has a comprehensive suite of promises that will fix the horrific destruction carried out by Hunt, Frydenberg and Price. Bluey reckons that they have the unique ministerial distinction of achieving as much for the environment as the Greens.

    Bluey got a letter from an erstwhile long-term member of the Savage Club. The letter may have tried to explain why the Savage Club finds it wholesome to keep women out and skulls in. Bluey does not know. He did not read the letter. Greens bumpf.

    There has been a bit of chatter about the discrepancy between the betting and the polling and what the parties are saying. Bluey reckons that the Liberals reckon it is close because they don’t want to dishearten themselves more than they are already disheartened and that Labor reckons it is close because they don’t want any one to actually go to sleep. Bluey reckons that PHON, the Nats and the Greens are circling the wagons trying valiantly to beat off hordes of deserting supporters… oh, wait.

    Bluey noted that Shorten got his lines crossed on Super tax and Morrison duly pounced.

    Bluey notes that, while Di Natale was frothing about holding Labor to account in the coming years, he was entirely SILENT on his failure to keep the Liberals to account for the past six years.

    Bluey noted that the Coalition is going to gut $40 billion in social spending but are getting away with this. So far.

    Meanwhile out in the Bush it is still not raining. There is an out-of-control wildfire in Clare. It’s as dry as bull’s tits out back. Bluey reckons that it always rains more under Labor.

    Score for the day.

    Bluey reckons quite ordinary, really. The tide went out in all directions. Bluey reckons that, if they keep this up, the Informal Party will rear its ugly head again.

    Labor loses half a point for Shorten’s Super tax buggerup.
    The Liberals lose half a point because Abbott and Lieu and McGrath combined for a spot of the old oxygen theft, and lost another half a point for not funding the Notre Dame rebuild. Stupid.

    The Greens did quite well on the Sharrouf political ambulance chasing which was worth half a point, but then they lost the half point they might have gained for failing to explain why they just spent six years failing to hold the Liberals to account.

    Bluey’s Cumulative Score: Labor 4 points; Coalition -1 point; Greens -1.5 point.

  16. Labor loses half a point for Shorten’s Super tax buggerup.
    ———

    But it has been proven there was nobugger up , those who thought Shorten was wrong were the ones who were actually wrong to criticise when shorten was right

  17. Notre Dame has world heritage status.

    “We are filled with emotion and our hearts are broken,” said UNESCO Director General Audrey Azoulay as she witnessed the devastating fire tear through the historic cathedral of Notre Dame de Paris this evening. The cathedral is part of the 1991 World Heritage inscription, Paris, Banks of the Seine, which also includes bridges, quays and the banks of the Seine in the historic part of its course (between the Pont de Sully and the Pont d’Iéna) and the Ile de la Cité and the Ile St Louis.

    “Notre Dame represents an architectural, cultural and religious heritage, a unique literary heritage that speaks to the whole world,” said Ms. Azoulay. The cathedral is widely regarded as the most beautiful example of French Gothic architecture, which includes innovative use of the rib vault and buttresses, colored stained glass rosettes and sculptural decorations. Construction of the church began in 1160 and continued for a century.

    https://en.unesco.org/news/fire-ravages-notre-dame-cathedral-paris-unesco-world-heritage-site

  18. On Australia contributing to a fund to re-build Notre Dam cathedral.

    I’m totally cool with a modest contribution. We are coming up to Anzac Day where one of the significant recognition events is Amiens and how prominently the Australian troops figured in that. France is a rich country and doesn’r need our help but has had a significant negative event just before Anzac Day and for us to show willing, even in a small way, to help out and acknowledge whats happened would be a good thing to do.

    And it will put the shits up the “Western Civilization” trogs from the Libs if Scomo opposes it. 🙂

  19. Given the extent of the fire, how much of Notre Dame can actually be recreated? And how long will it take? I think I read that it took about two hundred years to build the first time.

  20. Upnorth: “is it dickheadry or dickheadness”

    Both “dickheadry” and “dickheadedness” are useful words.

    Dickheadry tends to imply concrete action / activity that has actually occurred, as in “I’m sick of all the dickheadry in this election campaign”, whereas “dickheadedness” goes more to nature / tendencies continuing from the past into the future, as in “I cannot abide the dickheadedness of (insert politician X)”

  21. Trump also suggested aerial water bombing – which would have brought down all the walls!
    Trump & rational logical, science based thinking do not go well together.
    Probably too much pussy.

  22. Imacca – I think it would be a wonderful gesture by Australia and other countries to contribute to the Notre Dame rebuild.

    The world needs more cohesion and it would be a practical and symbolic way of expressing solidarity with France.

  23. Darn @ #521 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 6:46 pm

    Given the extent of the fire, how much of Notre Dame can actually be recreated? And how long will it take? I think I read that it took about two hundred years to build the first time.

    I was reading in Wikipedia this morning that it took 100 years to build the most of it (1160-1260) and then time to add and modify the buttresses. Other construction occurred over time since then.

  24. Zoidlord @ #517 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 6:35 pm

    RBA is pulling the rug out from the Liberal Party’s already fragile campaign
    Today’s Board Minutes mention “weak”, “slow” or “decline” in referencing growth over 50 times
    RBA meets in 3 weeks & issues updated forecasts on 10 May, 8 days before the poll. Expect it to be downbeat

    No, that’s actually what the Libs want. Just look at how Trump is threatening to nuke the Fed if it doesn’t keep rates steady (or cut them).

    If the RBA cuts rates a week before the election due to a weak economy, everyone with a mortgage will be celebrating the Coalition’s “better economic management”. Because that might as well be synonymous with “my house payments just got more affordable”. If the RBA dropped a sudden rate rise, the shit would really hit the fan (narratives about strong economic growth notwithstanding).

  25. This is a long and complex read, but worthwhile for those interested in the Darling River and Menindee Lakes.

    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/tandou-can-do-double-standards-in-water-purchases-in-the-murray-darling-basin/

    I am very glad the Nationals lost Barwon at the state election. It would be nice if they lose Parkes federally as well. They are no longer representing the interests of their constituents, and this may result in them slowly being “weeded” out by independents and minor parties.

  26. Excellent comment on this issue by Gabrielle Chan

    More
    Replying to @HefferStuart @micksfoley and 2 others
    For me, it is the paucity of good govt processes with transparency that enforces the rules evenly and without fear or favour for big corporates as well as smaller operators. People can cope with change and free markets if there are no side deals for mates

  27. I agree Australia’s contribution to Notre Dame could be symbolic rather than bank breaking. The stone walls are intact so the rest could be rebuilt including the roof. I heard one expert on the radio suggest it could take decades. Things like the unique organ may take longer than the roof.

  28. Someone was burning Catholic churches in Melbourne in 2015, was he ever caught:

    A church has gone up in flames on Good Friday, the fourth church fire this week…
    It is the fourth suspicious church fire that has occurred in Melbourne since Monday. St James Church in Brighton, St Mary’s in St Kilda East and St Mary’s Catholic Church in Dandenong have all suffered suspected arson attacks in the past six days.
    The three other churches are all Catholic churches connected to notorious paedophiles, including priests Kevin O’Donnell and Ronald Dennis Pickering.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/suspicious-fire-at-fourth-melbourne-church-20150403-1mee3f.html

  29. Socrates @ #387 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 3:10 pm

    “I hope the relics are saved as Notre Dame. Amongst others, it houses the Crown of Thorns.”

    They can always get some wood from the True Cross in Jerusalem to help rebuild the roof with. Never seem to run out of True Cross wood. Never seems to rot away like other timber. A new roof made of it will last forever.

    It is probably sycamore. That is what they used for the Egyptian mummies’ sarcophagi. In Australia you could use grey or red ironbark or callitris columellaris (white cypress). They will last more or less forever. Even termites won’t eat them, and fungus has no hope. Very difficult to hammer nails into, though.

  30. nath – like you I see these famous edifices as monuments to the workers who built them (and the architects/engineers) rather than the royals, rulers or rich who ordered them.

    Same goes for things like the Empire State Building, the Pyramids, the Burj Khalifa.

    I find it increases my appreciation of them. I remember being shown the individual carved ‘signature signs’ on masonry in the Mezquita in Cordoba – it brings a connection to those who actually built it.

  31. Boerwar:

    Please thank Bluey for another comprehensive report. Just as BK’s Dawn Patrol has become he go-to for PBers starting their day, so too has Bluey’s report become the end of day wrap for those of us not able to tune into the daily news cycle.

  32. nath
    “I think the Catholic Church has enough money for a rebuild without the tax payers of Australia contributing.”

    Notre Dame is more than a church , in fact it belongs to the French State.
    It is a building of world significance both at an architectural & cultural level
    An example of massive human endeavour.

    It would be an honour for Australia as a nation to contribute.
    A pity you are with Morrison on this

  33. If ABC news is any guide, Shorten had a bad day, because we had footage of Morrison being a good bloke etc etc and accusing Shorten of lying lying lying etc etc, while Shorten appeared on the defensive.

    The optics were not good, but it is the ABC after all.

  34. Sceptic
    says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 7:13 pm
    It would be an honour for Australia as a nation to contribute.
    A pity you are with Morrison on this
    ______________________________
    I mean, if the Catholic Church and the French State are short a quid sure.

  35. After all some may consider it merely a church real estate but the people of France see it very differently and this is a tragedy for them. Worth acknowledging as a nation in my view

  36. Great put down of Nancy P.

    @jimmy_dore
    More Jimmy Dore Retweeted Waleed Shahid
    How to lose to Trump 101:
    Pretend that what the majority of Americans want is “Fringe” while continuing to offer people nothing but a return to a horrible status quo.
    The @TheDemocrats are owned by same people who own @GOP.
    # ControlledOpposition

    Nancy Pelosi: “By and large whatever orientation they came to Congress with, they know we have to hold the center. We have to go down the mainstream.”

  37. Of course the Greens are on the same side as Morrison on Notre Dame! The Greens are political pentecostals – beset by unstable emotions and prone to speaking in tongues.

    I trust that Labor will go to its internationalist roots here and recognize that Notre Dame is a world class icon and a jewel in the crown of Western Civilization.

    To experience a sung latin mass with the organ barrelling along, and with glorious sunlight streaming through the rose windows, is to experience an apogee of centuries of artistic excellence.

    You don’t even have to be a believer to appreciate it.

  38. ‘shiftaling says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 7:17 pm

    Worth acknowledging as a nation in my view’

    Indeed. A friendly national gesture between friendly nations.

  39. Re:Notre Dame – Catholic Church? Pope Inc. to pay. F&#$ them. Sucked money out of the poor and the talented to build them, invested the rest, took a few indulgences on the way…….the kiddie fiddling pricks can cough up as far as I’m concerned.

  40. Rocket Rocket
    There should be plenty of good tennis players fom the Darling River area. Plenty of rackets, lobs and second serves that have avoided landing in the courts.

  41. Where are the $40 billion in cuts coming from?

    Well, probably heroic assumptions like health costs growing by 0.3% per annum. Were it to actually happen, this is a real cut of about 1.5-2.0% per annum in the face of a growing and aging population. You can also be sure of savage cuts in welfare, which the Liberals basically don’t believe in.

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