Odds and sods

Betting odds continue to point towards a sweeping Labor victory, even as intelligence from both sides of politics suggests a much tighter contest.

Speaking on RN Breakfast on Friday, Ben Oquist of progressive think tank the Australia Institute voiced the beltway consensus that “the bookies have got this one wrong at the moment – they’re forecasting a much bigger Labor victory than anybody seems to be predicting”. Betting markets at first appeared to respond, if not to Oquist specifically, then to the view coming through in media reports that both major parties were expecting a tight contest. Labrokes was offering $5 on a Coalition on Thursday, but by Sunday this was in to $3.50. Then came Newspoll, showing Labor maintaining its lead, and the Coalition blew back out to $4.50.

The individual seat markets have been more consistent, pointing to a Labor landslide of even greater dimensions than the one currently projected by BludgerTrack, which I would have thought quite a bit too favourable for Labor, particularly in Queensland. Ladbrokes rates Labor as favourites in five Coalition-held seats in New South Wales (Banks, Gilmore, Page, Reid and Robertson), four in Victoria (Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin and Dunkley), three in Western Australia (Hasluck, Pearce and Swan), one in South Australia (Boothby), and a Kevin Rudd-equalling nine in Queensland (Bonner, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Leichhardt and Petrie).

There has been some movement to the Coalition in the seat markets, notably in Flinders, where Liberal member Greg Hunt has edged to very narrow favouritism. Other significant movements have been recorded in the Liberals’ favour in Banks ($3.50 to $2.25), Lindsay ($3.50 to $2.05), Page ($2.40 to $1.90), Lyons ($5.50 to $4), Chisholm ($5 to $3.75), although Labor remains favourites in each. However, there has actually been movement in Labor’s favour in Gilmore, where they are in from $1.30 to $1.18, with Liberal out from $4.50 to $4.75.

Of the independent contenders, Albury mayor Ken Mack is rated equally likely to succeed against Liberal member Sussan Ley in Farrer as Zali Steggall is against Tony Abbott in Warringah, each offering a payout of $2.00. Both are trumped by Rob Oakeshott in Cowper, the most highly fancied non-incumbent independent at $1.75. In Mallee, where Andrew Broad of the Nationals is retired hurt, Ladbrokes is offering $3 for an independent to win, be it Ray Kingston, Cecilia Moar or Jason Modica. (Sportsbet has it at $4.75). Dave Sharma is favoured to recover Wentworth for the Liberals from Kerryn Phelps, with the two respectively at $1.57 and $2.30.

Among the many features of the Poll Bludger election guide, you can find Ladbrokes’ seat odds listed on the bottom right of each of the electorate pages, which are linked to individually throughout this post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

775 comments on “Odds and sods”

  1. Confessions
    Thank you. Not a pleasant task today, although the Greens were good for a laugh. Let’s hope tomorrow is betterer for Labor.

  2. Boerwar:

    If only there was a way to pin comments so BK’s Dawn Patrol and your Bluey Report were always on top as the most recent comments.

  3. Nothing stopping individuals from donating to the Notre Dame rebuild.

    Imposing the cost on all taxpayers is typical conservative practice.

  4. Saint Thomas Aquinas used to regularly levitate around Notre Dame Cathedral. Shame he used the power of God to fly instead of researching flame retardant material.

  5. Scott Morrison will lead the Coalition to victory at the May election will regain all 14 seats they lost in 2016.

    ALP will still be in opposition and shorten will be dumped as leader and be replaced by Chris Bowen.

  6. nath
    Saint Thomas Aquinas used to regularly levitate around Notre Dame Cathedral. Shame he used the power of God to fly instead of researching flame retardant material.

    Dipstick comment.. typical of Young Liberals

  7. Darn @ #521 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 6:46 pm

    Given the extent of the fire, how much of Notre Dame can actually be recreated? And how long will it take? I think I read that it took about two hundred years to build the first time.

    Give the job to the geniuses who have constructed fraudband – they are experts in providing a lot less useful construction for a lot more money.

    On fraudband, I was phoned today by an iinet salesman who tried to convince me to continue using them when FTTN arrives about June. I asked how far I would be from the node and his only answer was “not far” (true real estate agent speak). I’m now expecting a similar call from Telstra as we still have a landline with them.

  8. The Labor candidate for O’Connor got a good full page write up in the local paper today. I have to say it’s refreshing having a Labor candidate here out and about early in the campaign, and on the front foot. Last year we didn’t really have a candidate until the very end, and he was a ring in from up north. And in years past we’ve had staffers from the state Labor MP’s office, who are presumably staffers and not elected members for a reason.

    Shelley Payne is an elected member in local government, and is a refreshing burst of energy among the traditional pale, male and stale candidates that front up in this electorate.

  9. Shorten campaign lands in… Perth! Labor targeting a number of marginal seats here including Hasluck (Ken Wyatt’s seat) and Pearce (Christian Porter’s) #ausvotes  @abcnews @politicsabc

  10. Goll

    The Darling was never a raging torrent, but it has taken a huge effort to destroy it. I was really saddened flying over the empty Menindee Lakes late last year.

    I know Royal Commissions are a dime a dozen, but there truly does need to be a national one into the Murray-Darling Basin Plan and all the crooked deals surrounding this issue. I hope if Labor wins the Federal election they call one – it would be welcomed by the people living in the Murray-Darling Basin. Maybe not so welcomed by certain industry and government players.

  11. I wonder if any more recent monuments will stand for 850 years? The Sydney Opera House for example (a bit over 800 years to go). Any of the world’s skyscrapers and major bridges. Perhaps major dams (e.g. Warragamba – about 780 years to go).

  12. thinkbroadband.com
    ‏ @thinkbroadband
    1m1 minute ago

    UK superfast coverage down at 93.6% once capacity issues taken into account http://www.thinkbroadband.com/news/8375-uk-superfast-coverage-down-at-93-6-once-capacity-issues-taken-into-account?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=social&
    utm_campaign=newstweets …

    Jade Macmillan
    ‏Verified account @JadeMacmillan1
    7m7 minutes ago

    Shorten campaign lands in… Perth! Labor targeting a number of marginal seats here including Hasluck (Ken Wyatt’s seat) and Pearce (Christian Porter’s) #ausvotes @abcnews @politicsabc

    Nick Evershed
    ‏Verified account @NickEvershed
    7m7 minutes ago

    Liberal MP gave $1.5m novelty cheque to sports club despite warning funds not yet approved https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/16/liberal-mp-gave-one-and-a-half-million-novelty-cheque-to-sports-club-despite-warning-funds-not-yet-approved?CMP=share_btn_tw … hashtag #noveltychequegate

  13. “The Notre Dame cathedral fire poses a big challenge for the Victorian Liberals….how are they going to link it to Daniel Andrews?”

    Simple. It appears to have started accidentally, so it is likely to be an industrial accident.

    So industrial accident –> blame the workers –> unions –> Labor –> Daniel Andrews (and Bill Shorten)

  14. 7.30 Report& local ABC reporter giving less than half the information readily available on BBC let alone France News 24 .. shallow is ABC specialty

  15. Confessions

    I am told that bridges and tunnels are now designed to last 120 years.

    I have wondered about things like the Empire State Building – eventually it will have to be dismantled as you couldn’t ‘implode’ it in the middle of Manhattan (though maybe the ACT Liberals could give that a go!)

  16. Perhaps we could divert the $50 Billion for the subs over to Notre Dame. I’m sure it will be money better spent. I’d support that.

  17. Boerwar

    I echo Fess. Thanks. It’s so good to have BK with breakfast and Bluey after dinner.

    The poor devil must be exhausted after today’s episode. Bill had first bad one in yonks altho boosted along by media. Sky mob were salivating.

  18. Sohar @ #545 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 7:18 pm

    @jimmy_dore
    More Jimmy Dore Retweeted Waleed Shahid
    How to lose to Trump 101:
    Pretend that what the majority of Americans want is “Fringe” while continuing to offer people nothing but a return to a horrible status quo.

    How to be a disingenuous right-wing hack 101:
    Pretend that at any point in time a “majority of Americans”supported Trump and whatever it is that Trump stands for.

  19. ‘Zoidlord says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 7:32 pm

    Is Rex really a Green or just a liberal Spy ?’

    Nasty negger. Always sticking the knife in.

  20. With all due respect I think some posters are far too focused on every small statement and movement and the effect or not of such.

    We ( myself included ) are not normal or ordinary when it comes to politics. We see or interpret events far differently than the vast majority of our fellow Australians. Do not get me wrong. That is what I love about PB but what we see “ normal “ people do not.

    Today. $200 million for pathogy tests for cancer sufferers and older Australians combined with Morrison claiming everything is sweet and Shorten is a liar for claiming people have to pay.

    It does not matter if Morrison was reacting to the Shorten “gaffe” or not, his ranting of liar liar was all wrapped up in the news reports with the Shorten $200 million funding announcement. If one was disconnected one might assume Morrison was claiming no one has to pay for pathology.

    Not a good look four days ago not a good look today.

    I think Shorten got out of today ok. Plenty of time to weave the narrative that Shorten was only talking about any new campaign announcements and not super changes already announced 12 months ago.

    Of note was the fact labor did not rush out with press statements clarifying the Shorten statement. Let it ride. No panic and no admission of a stuff up. All it has done is given the media something to talk about. Remember the MSM are only after the noise. Too lazy to do policy. Labor just let it go though to the keeper. Did not make it a issue by responding.

    The optics ? Labor announces health policy. Morrison screams liar. Job done.

    Two days to Easter, no one in the real world cares about in depth analysis

    Cheers.

    Labor will not be diverted from its message.

  21. 730 finds vox pop participants in Wentworth who rate environment, education and health as important to them, yet are voting Liberal.

    WTF? Have they been asleep for the last 20 years?

  22. Ven – responding to a comment of yours earlier- I have been at work – I didn’t say and don’t think it’s correct to say – that everyone who voted No to SSM is homophobic. I did say, and still believe that Gladys Liu’s comments, were homophobhic. Have you read them? To people who may have voted No to SSM based on some traditional or cultural belief, I would say, that we are all human beings with similar hopes and wishes for our lives; that I believe that there is no proper basis for granting rights and privileges, such as the right to marry, to certain human beings, based on arbitrary factors such as race, colour, gender, sexual orientation, religion or political beliefs, and denying them to others. The act of denying those rights to others based on such arbitrary factors – which are often factors that we are born with – is hurtful. People can and will believe what they want and there’s nothing that any of us can do about that. If people express and act on views that are based on arbitrary preference for one class of human beings over others, and are indifferent to the hurt that this causes, I think their behaviour is wrong. With regard to your comment that criticising those who voted No to SSM involves criticising ALP voters – firstly I mostly try to criticise behaviour rather than individuals; secondly, those who voted No most likely included voters from all political parties, with the proportion of No voters increasing the further to the right of the political spectrum. You need to look no further than this blog to see occasional evidence of homophobic behaviour from some regular contributors. I mean no disrespect to you or your family members.

  23. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notre-Dame_de_Paris#Initial_construction

    According to Wikipedia, the Notre Dame cornerstone was laid in 1163 and underwent “four phases of construction”. Buttresses were added in the 13th century, and enlarged in the 14th century. It was completed in 1345, the first time.

    You could say construction started 858 years ago, but the age of the building we would recognise today is closer to 674. Mind you, this is still quite a marvellous age for a magnificent building.

  24. LR
    The flying buttress was a stroke of engineering and artistic genius.
    Apart from making sure that the walls did not pop outwards because of the huge weight of the roof pressing down, the buttresses turned what were essentially massive piles into light and airy flights of architectural joy.

  25. Notre Dame is my favourite building. It certainly transcends religion and nationality. Last time I was there I heard part of a choral recital (as I was being shunted through by my bored family) which was unspeakably beautiful in the setting. As a gesture of good will I think we should offer support, preferably in expertise.

  26. In terms of long lasting modern construction, it’s nuclear waste repositories that are designed to last. I’m just not sure we’ve built any yet.

  27. ‘max says:
    Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 7:53 pm

    Ven – responding to a comment of yours earlier- I have been at work – I didn’t say and don’t think it’s correct to say – that everyone who voted No to SSM is homophobic. I did say, and still believe that Gladys Liu’s comments, were homophobhic.’

    It is extremely hard to argue that Ms Lieu’s comments were not homophobic.

  28. 2007

    Remember?

    With the transition of the proceeds of the Mining Boom Phase 1 including by tax cuts (“a sandwich a week” for median earners, benefiting high income earners) and other measures seeing a minuscule $20 Billion surplus (including from asset sales) leading to inflation, the RBA did what it had never done before – raised interest rates not only during an election year but during an ejection campaign

    Noting also RBA data showing the surge in what we owed to our home mortgage lenders post 2000 when we owed $335 Billion (then $1.226 Trillion by 2010) which was at the forefront at the RBA at the time

    It could be argued that the RBA was grieved by the direction of the then government – and bought into the campaign increasing interest rates during that campaign

    Then came the GFC, and the responses of government under advice from the RBA and Treasury putting the minuscule surplus from the Mining Boom Phase 1 and the asset sales into context and highlighting the mismanagement of Howard and Costello spending as if there was no tomorrow and revenue was guaranteed

    The purpose of this is to draw attention to the Minutes of the RBA – and to suggest that, once again the RBA has lost confidence in government (noting also Lowe and Shorten were on the same stage with the same message whilst Ad Man from Mad Men was on Christmas Island) and Bowen last week referring to the 10 Year Bond Yield and the sheer size of our home mortgage debt – so RBA speak along with comment on wages growth, or lack thereof as Lowe continually speaks to

    I would add that increases of wages above inflation is reliant on a dynamic, progressive economy growing at trend such that those who pay and receive the wages both prosper

    As Capital is reliant on labour, so labour is reliant on Capital

    We are in this current fight together, Capital and labour because interest rates cannot remain at the current setttings – and we have the debt we have

    By RBA 2010 data, what we owed to our home lenders was $1.226 Trillion, BUT total private debt was over $1.9 Trillion – 170% of GDP

    The RBA and Labor recognise the risk – this dysfunctional government merely plays politics, calling people “lairs”

  29. Diogenes @ #592 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 8:00 pm

    Notre Dame is my favourite building. It certainly transcends religion and nationality. Last time I was there I heard part of a choral recital (as I was being shunted through by my bored family) which was unspeakably beautiful in the setting. As a gesture of good will I think we should offer support, preferably in expertise.

    They could press gang you to generate a space that effects love, tolerance and a reverence for God!

  30. Scott Morrison will lead the Coalition to victory at the May election will regain all 14 seats they lost in 2016

    Bill shorten will be dumped after the election as ALP will lose the election to our great LNP….

  31. Diogenes, a good experience is to visit a Russian Orthodox Church near their Christmas. St Isaac’s in St.Petersburgh is one such I have been to and the choir of predominantly male voices in that huge space is a visceral experience.

    That the cathedral is lined with twice the quantity of gold paid by the USA for Alaska however tends to rein-in the experience when you think of the serfdom that was firmly in place when it was built.

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