Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The first published opinion poll of the campaign records no change in Labor’s modest yet decisive lead.

The Australian brings us a second Newspoll in consecutive weeks, perhaps portending weekly results from now to the election. It shows no change from last week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead, but both major parties are up on the primary vote – Labor by two and the Coalition by one, leaving them tied on 39%. The Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are, interestingly, down two to 4%. All we are told of the leaders’ ratings at this stage is that they are “virtually unchanged”. Scott Morrison is unchanged on 45% approval and up one to 44% disapproval; Bill Shorten is unchanged on both measures, at 37% and 51%; and preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged, at 46-35 in favour of Morrison. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. There are lots of very attractive red-heads about, of both sexes.

    Regarding THE red-headed one, she’s nearly as old as me, so I suspect that these days she might get some assistance from the red haired equivalent of Grecian 2000.

  3. Spray

    No girl believes her parents, she thinks they’re just prejudiced, unfortunately, and just trying to comfort. It’s a problem. 🙁

  4. I believe it’s been referred to as the last socially acceptable form of discrimination.

    According to the comments of far too many people online, some of whom call themselves “progressives”, that honour actually goes to straight white Christian men

  5. Spray @ #544 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 1:41 pm

    Sorry EGW, which part’s absurd? If you mean it’s absurd that she should feel that way, I couldn’t agree more. If you’re saying it’s absurd to say that such discrimination exists, it might just be something you haven’t noticed.

    Absurd she should feel that way.
    Absurd that such discrimination should exist, although I hadn’t particularly noticed it. Redheads getting nicknamed ‘blue’ or the like doesn’t count with me.
    There are plenty of prominent red heads, both male and female who seem unaffected. Some of the women have been striking and high achieving.
    She must have suffered a bad experience that has unduly sensitised her.

  7. “In upper house or any PR system, yes it matters.”

    I’m glad you agree. I’m also glad that my preferences (do I get a gold star? :D) helped to elect both AJP and ALP candidates instead of nutters like DL. Every vote counts, especially in an upper house race like we’ve just seen in NSW.

  9. Spray

    There is too much stigmatisation around. Good luck with over coming that.
    Hopefully there will be less around as your daughter grows up. You might if you haven’t already get her to watch Cate Blanchett playing Elizabeth I.

  10. My mother wanted me to born with red hair and green eyes. She had auburn hair, my father the green eyes. To her disappointment I inherited her brown eyes and my father’s black hair. I think she eventually recovered.

  13. Firefox @ #557 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 1:48 pm

    “In upper house or any PR system, yes it matters.”

    I’m glad you agree. I’m also glad that my preferences (do I get a gold star? :D) helped to elect both AJP and ALP candidates instead of nutters like DL. Every vote counts, especially in an upper house race like we’ve just seen in NSW.

    How patronising.
    I am not ‘agreeing’ with you, I am stating what I have long known.

  14. BB – that is a sad story but the poor mite didn’t stand a chance with the beginning she had. She was lucky to have that time well loved.
    We took a little 8 yr old Jug (more Pug than Jack Russell) just a few months before we left our rural hideaway . A Tuncurry bloke retired, wife died, sad little dog, sad old bloke having to sell his big house which backed onto one of the canals there. The little fella had lived 8 years in the back yard with only a chicken wire fence between him and the canal. He spent his days chasing every sea bird that appeared (many) and barking at kids teasing him through the wire fence. Of course we only found that out after we’d agreed to take him – we’d not said goodbye to our old dog .
    Phew! 6 dogs in 58 years and we’d never had a barker until the Jug arrived. We sought help everywhere and Puffy was terrific and gave good advice.
    It’s taken 3.5 years for him to settle but he is now an absolute treasure and we’ve been lucky. I think it’s important to know their early years so you can help but your neighbour’s dog had genetic problems too. Yes, she was kind.
    Hope she finds a new doggy companion when she gets over this
    And … yes, I envy you your little slice of heaven on the MNC. It was time for us to leave as OH could no longer manage and we needed to be closer to our kids. They had been badgering for years so we decided it was time for revenge and to annoy the heck out of them. Hasn’t worked so far tho but at least we have dogsitters on hand.
    Are you going to get another Bob?

  17. Olivia Leeming @olivialeeming
    1h1 hour ago

    Journalists covering Scott Morrison’s campaign find out via his Instagram account he did a street walk in Melbourne this morning. We were on a bus at the time, waiting for his next event #ausvotes #AUSVotes2019

    Is this clever management or cowardice?

  18. Let’s just all take a moment to enjoy this story from a couple of weeks ago…

    Quote:

    In a blog post titled “a manifesto for a crossbencher”, Mr Leyonhjelm announced it was “evident” he had been elected and said he would be willing to work with the Berejiklian Government.

    “I have a long list of things I would like to see changed,” he wrote.

    “So when the Government comes seeking my vote, I will bring out my list.

    “And if there is agreement to make progress on something, there is a good chance it will get my vote.”

    https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-12/nsw-election-results-mean-nervous-wait-for-david-leyonhjelm/10996526

  20. Lizzie

    Shame perhaps. About the only politician recently that prefers to walk without a media pack in tow.

    Good luck to him for getting the privacy though. I do think our media goes overboard with election campaign coverage.

    Its one reason I am pleased the Guardian decided not to have their journalists on the buses. It doesn’t seem to have hurt their coverage.

  21. lizzie
    I was like your Mum. I wanted my daughter to have red hair because my grandmother had the most beautiful auburn hair . No such luck – she got the blonde hair OH and I had.
    Genetics must have a lot to do with hair cos my grandmother didn’t go gray until she was late 80s. I’ll be 81 this year and still only a few strands of gray. I’m a bit deaf and when I went to Hosp for my hand op a few weeks ago they called my name but I didn’t hear it. The nurse physically went to other women in the room with grey hair looking for me , not thinking that the dolt with brown hair and her head in her mobile twitter feed was the person they needed. Now that was a bit off I thought.

  22. lizzie @ #565 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 1:57 pm

    Olivia Leeming @olivialeeming
    1h1 hour ago

    Journalists covering Scott Morrison’s campaign find out via his Instagram account he did a street walk in Melbourne this morning. We were on a bus at the time, waiting for his next event #ausvotes #AUSVotes2019

    Is this clever management or cowardice?

    Mean and tricky. Or, Control Freak.

    Morrison doesn’t want to be caught out by the journalists if an uncomfortable confrontation with a voter occurs. The Liberal Party want control of the narrative to be entirely theirs to control.

  23. lizzie @ #567 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 1:57 pm

    Olivia Leeming @olivialeeming
    1h1 hour ago

    Journalists covering Scott Morrison’s campaign find out via his Instagram account he did a street walk in Melbourne this morning. We were on a bus at the time, waiting for his next event #ausvotes #AUSVotes2019

    Is this clever management or cowardice?

    On Saturday Morrison greeted a voter in Chinese and she proved to be Korean. Not allowing the media to attend these events enables the Libs to control the visuals and the commentary.

  27. Rational Leftist @ #551 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 1:47 pm

    According to the comments of far too many people online who often call themselves “progressives” that honour actually goes to straight white Christian men

    I’m sure there’s a problem with that standpoint, and that it has something to do with how that particular demographic historically enjoyed a disproportionate amount of power and all too often leveraged it to inflict harm and suffering upon people who fell outside of it.

    You can’t do that and then cry foul when people finally start catching on. Not without a Trumpian dose of false-moral-equivalence, anyways.

  29. Or does it give Morrison another chance to tell us that he lives outside the ‘bubble’ the journos inhabit. “Look, I’m like you not those fake people who live in the bubble and spread fake news”. He’s cunning.

  31. “How patronising.
    I am not ‘agreeing’ with you, I am stating what I have long known.”

    Ok mate. Whatever floats your boat. I for one know that my preferences helped get AJP and ALP candidates elected.

  33. Paterson Observer
    We were in the top end of Paterson for yonks – Baldwin – aagh! He retired, the boundaries changed and we were still stuck in Nat territory.
    Nice to be in Newcastle now.

  34. A perfect example of the “Dog Whistle” in a book I am currently reading.

    “Sheridan won the battle with the oldest trick in the book — pointing towards the horizon and saying, “look” thereby distracting Lucy and Joe while she scrambled into the front.”

    👉👉👉🐕🎺

  35. I think Morrison may have been walking where I bought a load of pebbles a few weeks ago.
    I was amused at his ‘driving’ the machine. Big macho man.
    But now I’m in a slight quandary. Do I abandon them as a supplier because they support the LNP? Or do I show my tolerance and order from them again? (Nah, joking.)

  36. BH @ #571 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 2:04 pm

    lizzie
    I was like your Mum. I wanted my daughter to have red hair because my grandmother had the most beautiful auburn hair . No such luck – she got the blonde hair OH and I had.
    Genetics must have a lot to do with hair cos my grandmother didn’t go gray until she was late 80s. I’ll be 81 this year and still only a few strands of gray. I’m a bit deaf and when I went to Hosp for my hand op a few weeks ago they called my name but I didn’t hear it. The nurse physically went to other women in the room with grey hair looking for me , not thinking that the dolt with brown hair and her head in her mobile twitter feed was the person they needed. Now that was a bit off I thought.

    A good point for spray to make with his daughter. Redheads tend not to go grey,

  39. BH
    Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 2:04 pm
    Comment #569

    I’m also (more than) a bit deaf.

    I have grown accustomed (to her face) to my GP or specialist looking expectantly at me while I look askance in his/her direction. Mostly I have a daughter or son in law to act as a prompter and save the day with the reminder “have you lost any weight recently?” or similar question.

    Then there were none as he clambered into bed for a (not so) well earned nanny nap.

  40. EGW
    That is a good point for Spray’s daughter because the hair dresser told me that auburn hair is the last to go grey. I turned from blonde to brown in my 20s but definitely auburn tendencies. Has saved lots of $s over the years. I was stunned when our daughter said she regularly pays $150 for streaks to keep the brown creeping in to her blonde locks.

  41. Seasonal humour.
    Twice Treasury have denied LNP.. It’s almost Easter !!
    ‘Treasury told Liberals to stop lying about Labor’s negative gearing policy’

    The Coalition’s claims that property prices will definitely fall under a Labor government are inaccurate, the federal Treasury has said, in an extraordinary rebuke to the incumbent government.

    Documents obtained by the ABC under a freedom of information request reveal Treasury disagreed with the government’s claims that Labor’s negative gearing policy would lead to price falls for all homeowners.

    The Coalition has told Australians that Labor’s policy would be like a “sledgehammer” for the housing markets.

    https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-tells-liberals-stop-lying-labors-negative-gearing-policy-060951757.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw

  42. EGW @ #586 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 2:17 pm

    BH @ #571 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 2:04 pm

    lizzie
    I was like your Mum. I wanted my daughter to have red hair because my grandmother had the most beautiful auburn hair . No such luck – she got the blonde hair OH and I had.
    Genetics must have a lot to do with hair cos my grandmother didn’t go gray until she was late 80s.

    I was called copper-top as a child but it has changed to a nice reddy-brown. I am now in my 60s but also have very little gray as yet. My previously black haired friend went gray very early.

  44. Lenore Taylor @lenoretaylor
    2m2 minutes ago

    WE’RE HIRING @GuardianAus

    An investigations editor

    senior business reporter

    environment editor

    senior reporter

    audio presenter/producer

    audio producer

    lifestyle editor

    assistant news editor

  45. laughtong
    Lucky us. Most of my friends were grey years ago too.

    Goll
    We’re waiting for an election many of us hope to cheer about. I think we were worse in 2006-7

  46. CC
    “While I detest Leyonhjelm, having him sit as an MLC is still better than someone from the likes of One Nation.”

    Same shit, different smell.

  47. “And he has been saying I previously said they didn’t. An absolutely daft proposition.”

    Thank flip for Google search and William having a well indexed site…

    Quote:

    FF: As a member of the NSW Greens, I’m pretty sure I understand myself and how I vote lol. In fact, I just explained a few posts ago exactly how I – a Greens voter – just voted in NSW and how I plan to vote federally.

    EGW: Getting all innovative and clever in how you sequence your preferences, as you have described, will produce a distinction without a difference.
    But go ahead and feel very clever about your meaningless gesture.

    D&M: Vox pop in our household for upper house. 2 members planning to vote 1 Labor 2 Greens, then an assortment of other progressive parties. 4 members of the household will vote 1 Animal Justice only, above the line.

    In our household, the cats and dogs are on a unity ticket.

    EGW: So 4 votes will be thrown away.
    Will they get some sort of a warm inner glow?

    FF: EGW, allocating preferences is hardly meaningless. We don’t use a first past the post system you know. I order my preferences so parties of the left get as much benefit from my vote as possible, then place Labor after them to ensure that the Coalition and right wing minors do not get in. That’s the exact opposite of meaningless.

    EGW: The only ‘parties of the left’ that will get a Senator elected are Labor and, unfortunately, the Greens. So taking fancy circuitous routes to get your preferences to those two is just meaningless ‘feel good’ stuff. Enjoy!

    FF: EGW, last time I checked, parties like Animal Justice are still in the running to win upper house seats in NSW. Every vote counts and me giving them my preference gives them a better shot at picking up an upper house seat than if I didn’t give them a prefrence. At the moment it’s parties like AJP, KSO, ALP etc who are fighting it out with far right parties like One Nation and the Shooters for those last spots in the NSW upper house. I can’t believe I actually have to explain this to someone.

    EGW: You don’t have to explain.
    I think I have a better understanding of how Senate votes are counted than you appear to.

    FF: EGW, you’ve actually demonstrated that you don’t have a clue. You suggested that the only parties of the left with a chance of winning upper house seats were Labor and the Greens. That is just factually incorrect. Animal Justice has already won an upper house seat at the last NSW election and is in the running again this time. If they get in instead of One Nation or some other whacko party you can thank people like me who bothered to prefrence them. Even if they don’t get in at least I can say I did my bit to try and protect NSW from fascists.

    EGW: Water under the bridge and hence not currently relevant.
    Think Senate.

    FF: How is it not currently relevant when the upper house votes in NSW aren’t anywhere near finished being counted? They are literally sorting out the very preferences we’ve been talking about as we speak! I’m not sure that you can get more relevant than that.

    EGW: Oh dear… are you a Guytaur sock puppet?
    1. The NSW votes have been cast and cannot be altered.
    2. Most of Australia is not NSW.
    3. The next upper house election will be for the Senate.

    FF: EGW,
    Ok mate, you keep telling yourself that preferences don’t matter. Yes, the votes have been cast in NSW but millions of them are yet to be counted and have their upper house preferences distributed. Who wins those final seats will depend on prefrence flows. To claim they don’t matter or that it’s pointless to prefrence left wing minors is just ridiculous. And yes, I’ll be voting the same way federally too. Even if a minor party who represents my views has zero chance of winning a seat I’ll still prefrence them. From little things big things grow. The question is why wouldn’t you give preferences to parties you like after you’ve voted 1 for your first choice? The only reason I can think of is if you’re one of those people who just can’t be f….ed to fill out the bit of paper, but that doesn’t make sense in your case. If you care enough about politics to be on a serious psephology website like Pollbludger then you probably care enough to vote properly.

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/04/02/calm-before-the-storm/comment-page-15/#comments

    It goes on and on and on. You get the drift.

  48. So Leyonhjelm joins No Land Tax candidate Peter Jones, aka Mr Blue as being an ‘unlucky’ last moment loser in recent NSW LC elections.

    Bwhahaha.

    Although I’d prefer Leyonhjelm to anyone from ON and Mr Blue … just

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