Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The first published opinion poll of the campaign records no change in Labor’s modest yet decisive lead.

The Australian brings us a second Newspoll in consecutive weeks, perhaps portending weekly results from now to the election. It shows no change from last week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead, but both major parties are up on the primary vote – Labor by two and the Coalition by one, leaving them tied on 39%. The Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are, interestingly, down two to 4%. All we are told of the leaders’ ratings at this stage is that they are “virtually unchanged”. Scott Morrison is unchanged on 45% approval and up one to 44% disapproval; Bill Shorten is unchanged on both measures, at 37% and 51%; and preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged, at 46-35 in favour of Morrison. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. ajm @ #1100 Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 12:00 am

    EGW @ #1094 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 11:46 pm

    Confessions @ #1073 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 11:04 pm

    a r @ #1070 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 8:57 pm

    Confessions @ #1061 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 10:48 pm

    Not a fan of Trioli’s chairing tonight. She lost control of the debate on several occaisions.

    Yeah, she let that Liberal guy walk all over everyone.

    Though the Labor candidate did herself few favors when granted clear air. They’ve really got to work on being clear and direct.

    “How will you pay for your promises?” – By shutting down tax loopholes for the wealthy and not giving big business a tax cut.

    “Why don’t you have a position on Adani?” – Our position has always been that not one dollar of Government funding will go to Adani.

    Terri Butler isn’t Labor’s best media performer. I agree she was weak tonight.

    Terri Butler is a great media performer!
    She was doing to McGrath what Dan Andrews did to Matthew Guy. The shoutier McGrath got, the more quietly and calmly she spoke.
    And contrary to what some are saying, her messages were clear.

    Quite. She can fire up when required but tonight the task was to get out some key messages and make sure Labor wasn’t the bad news item in the morning.

    Also she saw a fantastic opportunity for not interrupting her enemy while he was making a mistake and showed great control in doing so.

    Glad I am not the only one who thought so.
    As I said earlier today when I first learnt Terri was going to be on the show, “can’t get enough of Terri”. She is one of my favourites and I think is destined for bigger things.

  2. Dont know where some of the posts here about Butler earlier came from. 🙁

    She was very good. Calm, got the messages out, got a bit of politish humor into it and was clear when she spoke t matters.

    Waters held up pretty well.

    Roberts just couldn’t keep the small gov conspiracy theorist side completely in check and was laughable on the PHON /NRA money thing. 🙂

    McGrath did NOT win any votes for the LNP tonight. FFS ……… he was scornful of the bloke who WANTS to vote LNP and was begging for a reason too. ??

  3. I am not a student of the history of Israel. I have never seen any reason to take sides in the Middle East. I do think we need to take a stand when one side throws stones and inflicts no injuries and the other responds with a tank or missile attack killing and maiming unarmed youth.
    I know we were part of the group that carved up the territory over there and booted the owners of the Israeli property after WW 2. To say and do nothing about the continuing push into the West Bank also seems pretty unfair.
    Every politician in every party seems to get the free tour and commentary from Israel then has nothing to say about subsequent human rights violations.
    When the likes of Packer decides to move there, you know some deals are being done that the general population are not privy to. Smells like money, money, money.

  4. Waters handled McGrath brilliantly! He was totally losing the plot and going off the rails. Larissa just stayed calm and made her points firmly and clearly. Butler seemed to be enjoying the spectacle of having an LNP member implode next to her immensely lol. Roberts was, well he was Roberts – as nutty as ever. The guy is off in his own little world. He was stumbling all over the place when the NRA issue was brought up. He stayed relatively composed compared to McGrath though. Waters made him look like a complete fool!

  5. This pretty much sums it up…


    Q&A recap: James McGrath’s one-way trip to crazy town

    On Monday’s Q&A panel from Queensland, let this be said of Coalition senator James McGrath.


    Or to quote Senator McGrath directly: “I BEG YOUR PARDON?” and “THAT IS SO WRONG!” and “I WILL NOT ACCEPT THIS!”

    The flashpoints were many, but what really set off McGrath was the suggestion that he and his party were somehow in bed with either racists or political donors.

    The Greens Larissa Waters: “Nothing to do with the donations from Adani.”

    McGrath: “That’s offensive.”

    Waters: “You should give the money back.”

    McGrath adopted the Casablanca defence.

    He was shocked – shocked – at the suggestion gambling was taking place on Queensland premises: “It’s offensive to say that any political party will take a position based on a donation…”

    The audience fell about with laughter.

    And yet, he persisted: “And you should think about yourself in terms of what you’ve just said then.”

    Waters: “This is why we need a federal ICAC, and you know it.”

    McGrath: “I want to address that. I’m outraged, I’m actually outraged about that. It is actually offensive for any politician on this panel or anywhere to say that the Liberal-National Party or people who support the Liberal-National Party are taking policy positions based on donations. That is actually offensive and it is wrong.”

    Soon after, McGrath was asked about a photograph of him that featured supporters flashing a white supremacist symbol.

    McGrath: “I’d never seen that symbol before and they were suspended … that’s the way it should be. And I’m sure the Greens and I hope Labor would agree with that.”

    The Greens’ Larissa Waters: “I’m not sure Peter Dutton would.”

    And then it was on.

    As best we can make of the shout-fest that ensued:

    McGrath: “I beg your pardon. Are you serious about that?”

    Waters: “Yes, I am.”

    McGrath: “This is the problem with the Greens. No, this is serious. You’ve accused my party of taking policy positions based on donations and now you’ve effectively, which is wrong and is offensive, and now you’ve effectively accused Peter Dutton of being a racist. That is wrong.”

    Waters: “Yes, I have.”

    McGrath (shouting): “That is so wrong. This is the Greens. No, no, no, I’m sorry. These just accused a senior member of my party of being a racist and I’m calling her out on that.”

    Trioli: “She’s standing by it.”

    McGrath: “What’s the evidence of him being a racist?”

    Waters: “Look at the entire policy platform that he, as immigration minister, and a…”

    McGrath, yelling: “I’m sorry! I will not accept this.”

    Trioli: “You don’t have to accept this. We’re going to move on.”

    McGrath (hollering, audience booing): “Where are your tears for those people who drowned at sea and were eaten by the sharks? Where were your tears there? So don’t come here with your crocodile tears talking to me about what Peter Dutton and Scott Morrison did. They made sure the borders of Australia were safe and secure.”

    Trioli: “James McGrath, I’ll ask you not to shout.”

    McGrath: “Sorry, they were booing me so I had to shout.”

    And so it went, including a stoush over veganism and “vegan warriors”.

    McGrath, clapping like a seal at the question and then shouting: “It’s a home invasion!”

    Trioli: “James McGrath, the question has been asked. Let her answer it.”

    McGrath (animated): “Let them go to your house. What’s your address? Put your address out there and let the farmers go to your house. That’s what’s happened to farmers. That’s what’s happened to farmers …. that have had these monsters, these eco-criminals invade their homes. Shame on you for defending them.”

    Roberts: “There’s something really important…”

    Trioli: “Malcolm Roberts. No.”

    Roberts: “What we’re seeing is…”

    Trioli: “No! I’m sorry the question was not to you.”

    It was a valiant hosting performance.

    As for the guests, the only thing missing from the night was McGrath thanking Roberts for holding his beer. We assume that happened in the green room later.

    Waters just shoved him right off the tracks and let the trainwreck unfold. Brilliant.

  6. The election is a contest between the liberal representing the interests of a few and not representing the interests of the majority of voters.
    McGrath represents the liberals unable to accept that they could possibly have it all wrong.
    The polls represent the liberals getting it all wrong.
    The SFP represent ths Nationals getting it all wrong.
    Hanson represents having no idea and getting it all wrong.
    The Greens represent the impossible.
    This election represents the longest election ever.
    Most people just want to celebrate Easter or have a holiday from the persistent squabbling that an election represents.
    Bill and Labor at this time represent the only viable choice.
    McGrath is outraged about reality.
    The people want political integrity. It’s long gone.

  7. Tristo @ #205 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 5:41 am

    If One Nation support collapses by election day, there is a chance either Palmer’s United Australia Party and perhaps Fraser Anning to win a Senate seat in Queensland on One Nation preferences.

    No, they’re coming home, to the GORP (Grand Old Racist Party LNP) 😡

  8. swamprat

    Just got up to that news. Spire has collapsed – whole building may be destroyed .

    That means no campaign stories today will break through.

    I went there last year and noticed very heavy security presence in the area with many heavily armed special operations police especially in the plaza next to it – obviously considered a target both as the building but also all the international visitors.

  9. Rocket

    It is very distressing when great heritage and great art is destroyed.

    The Cathedral also included great art as well. Reports say attempts were made to save them.

  10. An early good morning all. I thought the desperate performance by James McGrath on QandA last night was a sure sign of panic in the Liberals. It perfectly illustrated the electoral wedge they have created for themselves. McGrath does not want to disown Adani or Dutton to appease Qld backers, yet they and his own antics are electoral poison in NSW, SA and Vic.

    To be fair, Larissa Waters was good as well. While PHON voters will not switch to the Greens it must mean one less competitor for sixth spotss.

  11. Shout out to the Indonesian Presidential elections today, where voters will choose between
    A) continuing to be one of the most democratic countries in Asia or
    B) dashing headlong down the path of theocratic authoritarianism spearheaded by a Trumpian figure who claims religious authority but transparently obviously has none.

    Yeah you can put me in the #JokowiDuaPeriode camp.

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