Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The first published opinion poll of the campaign records no change in Labor’s modest yet decisive lead.

The Australian brings us a second Newspoll in consecutive weeks, perhaps portending weekly results from now to the election. It shows no change from last week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead, but both major parties are up on the primary vote – Labor by two and the Coalition by one, leaving them tied on 39%. The Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are, interestingly, down two to 4%. All we are told of the leaders’ ratings at this stage is that they are “virtually unchanged”. Scott Morrison is unchanged on 45% approval and up one to 44% disapproval; Bill Shorten is unchanged on both measures, at 37% and 51%; and preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged, at 46-35 in favour of Morrison. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Wow, James McGrath taking some heat on QandA (in Queensland)

    He looks like he is almost breaking out in a sweat, resisting the need to swallow with some difficult questions.

  2. The surplus and tax relief is polling way down as policy priorities for voters.

    Which is why I’m not too worried about the Murdocracy and the LNP harping on about it.

    It’s honestly the ONLY thing they can talk to and it’s not the Coalition silver bullet it was years ago.

  3. Rational Leftist @ #995 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 9:27 pm

    This is why I hate the Israel/Palestine debate. There is no bloody nuance and everyone argues in the worst possible faith. Everyone’s either going to be labelled an anti-semite who would’ve pushed the switches at Auschwitz, or a Netanyahu-loving authoritarian who supports shooting Palestinian teenagers for yelling too loud. And it doesn’t help that both the extremes yell the loudest and neither side is willing to address its more problematic elements.

    Second.

  4. Trioli was great. Two men, Roberts n McGrath thought they could stomp on her. They failed miserably. Best management of pollies by a journo/ MC/ Chair I’ve seen in years.

  5. BK

    Rohan finished up flat on his back on the pitch after dispatching Benaud – twice

    They had some classical batsmen – no less than GStA Sobers, who then played 3 seasons for SA (and Prospect)

    Great man, Garry

    He returned later to play District games for North Melbourne

    Kanhai played for Tasmania and Hall for Queensland

  6. Confessions @ #1061 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 10:48 pm

    Not a fan of Trioli’s chairing tonight. She lost control of the debate on several occaisions.

    Yeah, she let that Liberal guy walk all over everyone.

    Though the Labor candidate did herself few favors when granted clear air. They’ve really got to work on being clear and direct.

    “How will you pay for your promises?” – By shutting down tax loopholes for the wealthy and not giving big business a tax cut.

    “Why don’t you have a position on Adani?” – Our position has always been that not one dollar of Government funding will go to Adani.

  7. Agree with Psyclaw on Trioli – she made those fools look like small men ultimately. All three women came across as sensible while both men came across as hysterical at times.

  8. a r @ #1070 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 8:57 pm

    Confessions @ #1061 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 10:48 pm

    Not a fan of Trioli’s chairing tonight. She lost control of the debate on several occaisions.

    Yeah, she let that Liberal guy walk all over everyone.

    Though the Labor candidate did herself few favors when granted clear air. They’ve really got to work on being clear and direct.

    “How will you pay for your promises?” – By shutting down tax loopholes for the wealthy and not giving big business a tax cut.

    “Why don’t you have a position on Adani?” – Our position has always been that not one dollar of Government funding will go to Adani.

    Terri Butler isn’t Labor’s best media performer. I agree she was weak tonight.

  9. I’d qualify my comments on Q&A in that I just saw the last 25 minutes, and in that I agree with Psyclaw @10:54. As to Trioli controlling McGrath, Tony Jones would have let him bang on and on. Anyway, Trioli would have needed a taser or a phaser set to “stun”. As it turned out, McGrath made an idiot of himself so no harm done. At the end he tried to wave a book around but fortunately the camera switched away.

  10. Yes! Thanks BK for the Kanhai photograph. I drove with a friend non stop across the Nullarbor in time to see the first ball bowled. So many highlights in that game – Kanhai’s twin tons, Ritchies first ball disappearing over the VR Gate, Gibbs’s hat trick – all culminating in the heroics of Mackay and Kline.
    Spence, if I remember correctly, most of the fours hit through point came from the bowling of Kline. Thanks for reminding me.

  11. citizen @ #980 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 9:04 pm

    Pegasus says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 6:07 pm
    How Shorten’s visit in Deakin to chat with a “fair dinkum” family was reported in the local paper – The Whitehorse Leader:

    But the Labor trio weren’t in a talkative mood, with Mr Shorten taking only three questions posed by reporters – one on the chances of winning Deakin, one on negative gearing and the last on MPs in Queensland being gagged about talking about Adani’s bid to start mining in Queensland.

    The Whitehorse Leader is a Murdoch paper, so it would be totally unbiased!!!

    https://www.newscorpaustralia.com/brand/whitehorse-leader/

    Maybe Pegasus is their local reporter?

  12. swamprat says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 11:10 pm
    Do candidates for the Australian Parliament now need both to comply with s44 and get approval from the Israeli Embassy?

    ______________________________

    No.

  13. My QandA summation.

    It can still surprise. Who knew that in terms of behaviour Malcolm Roberts would not be the worst train wreck on the panel?

  14. Peter Stanton @ #983 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 9:06 pm

    In my youth in the late 1960s and early 1970s I was a strong supporter of Israel.The kibbutz system was very attractive to a young socialist. Over time as i became more aware of what was actually happening I began questioning my position. My awareness of the reality was helped by information from a young couple of Israeli socialists who had migrated to Perth because they had lost faith in Israel. Over time I have moved to be a strong supporter of Palestine. I know it is offensive to say this and that is why I say it. The Jewish right learnt a lot from the Nazis. I am long tired of political correctness helping to hide the atrocities being committed in Palestine and hidden in the name of the the Genocide.

    I am rather like you in respect of Israel.
    I was greatly influenced by learning of the Holocaust and reading Leon Uris’s books Exodus and Mila 18.
    Much later I learnt about the Palestinian Nakba and started taking a more critical view of Israel.
    I don’t hate Jewish people, but I certainly now feel that great evil is being perpetrated in their name. Some Holocaust survivors reached a similar conclusion.

  15. Steve777 @ #1083 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 9:25 pm

    But Labor does need a better spokesperson than Terri Butler. Fortunately Larissa Waters took up the stack for the Good Guys.

    Agreed. But fortunately swing voters don’t watch Qanda therefore Liberals feel confident to offer up a James McGrath, and Labor can give Qanda audience Terri Butler.

  16. Rocket.

    I recommend you watch this one. McGrah was trying to be the spoiler.

    He instead showed how to make sure you get no new voters. Also how to hand appeals lawyers victory in a court case.

  17. Sorry BK, Kanhai played for WA.
    I remember working in the WACA scoreboard during a Shield game. The day was stinking hot, even by Perth standards. Doubly hot inside that black, west facing , sheet metal scoreboard.The game proceeded at leisurely pace with Kanhai and Barry Shepherd putting on about 300. All was serene inside the board until 10 minutes before stumps at which point WA lost two or three wickets, and someone retired hurt. Chaos ensued with seriously dehydrated board slaves frantically ripping the huge name plates out of their slots, dropping some, putting new ones in upside down
    Electronic boards are not half as much fun.

  18. I actually thought Terri Butler did quite a good job considering the number of interruptions she had to put up with from the out of control idiot sitting beside her.

  19. Why does anyone in Australia care what Israel thinks of us? What geopolitical or trade interests do we have in pandering to them? There certainly isn’t any moral imperative to give them a free pass to treat the Palestinians they dispossessed 70-odd years ago the way they do! By doing so, we shred our credibility in confronting other nations about their violations of human rights. We should call out Israel’s mistreatment of Palestinians, just as we should call out China, India, Myanmar and others for their human rights abuses.

    I find this lynch mob mentality towards people who are just trying to stand up for decency and human rights in the Middle East to be disturbing. Why do some folk want to gag others from calling out Israel’s human rights violations? Is it fear of a vengeful USA? Is it fear of a vengeful Judeo-Christian god? This really perplexes me.

  20. Confessions @ #1073 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 11:04 pm

    a r @ #1070 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 8:57 pm

    Confessions @ #1061 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 10:48 pm

    Not a fan of Trioli’s chairing tonight. She lost control of the debate on several occaisions.

    Yeah, she let that Liberal guy walk all over everyone.

    Though the Labor candidate did herself few favors when granted clear air. They’ve really got to work on being clear and direct.

    “How will you pay for your promises?” – By shutting down tax loopholes for the wealthy and not giving big business a tax cut.

    “Why don’t you have a position on Adani?” – Our position has always been that not one dollar of Government funding will go to Adani.

    Terri Butler isn’t Labor’s best media performer. I agree she was weak tonight.

    Terri Butler is a great media performer!
    She was doing to McGrath what Dan Andrews did to Matthew Guy. The shoutier McGrath got, the more quietly and calmly she spoke.
    And contrary to what some are saying, her messages were clear.

  21. Just watched Media Watch rip The Age and SMH a new one over their false and sloppy front page reporting last week that EV’s would put the electricity grid at risk. Noted that after initially doubling down, two days later they both had to publish a retraction. They didn’t properly read the report they were relying on! Wow.

  22. “Why does anyone in Australia care what Israel thinks of us? What geopolitical or trade interests do we have in pandering to them?”

    Australian trade and geopolitical interests? Very minor. It’s all part of our commitment to the USA. The USA for various reasons including domestic politics, left-over Cold War alliances and Middle East strategy unconditionally supports Israel, especially when the Republicans are in power. And especially when the Coalition is in power, Australia unconditionally supports the USA. So it’s transitive.

  23. It was ironic that the first question on Q & A tonight was about whether the panellists could agree to be nice to each other – followed by the whole thing turning into possibly the worst slanging match they have ever had on the show. Certainly the worst I have ever seen.

  24. EGW @ #1094 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 11:46 pm

    Confessions @ #1073 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 11:04 pm

    a r @ #1070 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 8:57 pm

    Confessions @ #1061 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 10:48 pm

    Not a fan of Trioli’s chairing tonight. She lost control of the debate on several occaisions.

    Yeah, she let that Liberal guy walk all over everyone.

    Though the Labor candidate did herself few favors when granted clear air. They’ve really got to work on being clear and direct.

    “How will you pay for your promises?” – By shutting down tax loopholes for the wealthy and not giving big business a tax cut.

    “Why don’t you have a position on Adani?” – Our position has always been that not one dollar of Government funding will go to Adani.

    Terri Butler isn’t Labor’s best media performer. I agree she was weak tonight.

    Terri Butler is a great media performer!
    She was doing to McGrath what Dan Andrews did to Matthew Guy. The shoutier McGrath got, the more quietly and calmly she spoke.
    And contrary to what some are saying, her messages were clear.

    Quite. She can fire up when required but tonight the task was to get out some key messages and make sure Labor wasn’t the bad news item in the morning.

    Also she saw a fantastic opportunity for not interrupting her enemy while he was making a mistake and showed great control in doing so.

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