The Australian brings us a second Newspoll in consecutive weeks, perhaps portending weekly results from now to the election. It shows no change from last week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead, but both major parties are up on the primary vote – Labor by two and the Coalition by one, leaving them tied on 39%. The Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are, interestingly, down two to 4%. All we are told of the leaders’ ratings at this stage is that they are “virtually unchanged”. Scott Morrison is unchanged on 45% approval and up one to 44% disapproval; Bill Shorten is unchanged on both measures, at 37% and 51%; and preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged, at 46-35 in favour of Morrison. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.
PvO’s voice seems to have gone up an octave or two since his move to channel ten.
There are so many nutters out there:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/phelps-refers-hate-speech-email-to-federal-police-20190415-p51ef7.html
I blame the execrable Dutton thereof.
https://mobile.twitter.com/andrewfalloon/status/1117303245829885952/photo/1
Hope this link works
‘Yes. I look forward to Labor ramping up on this during the campaign.’
Yeah, that’ll happen.
Dear Henry:
Then again – not(?).
Doesn’t anyone want to sit next to him?
Hey ‘fess
That mumble article you linked seemed very WMFTE…the only mention of a WA seat changing hands was Coalition *winning* Cowan…not the 3-4 Liberal seats at risk of being won by the ALP!
http://insidestory.org.au/one-path-to-victory/
taylormade
The crater lake at Mt.Eccles is very pretty – we went there a few times when we lived in Warrnambool. But the broader story of aboriginal life, with permanent structures, fish (and eel?) traps in the Hopkins River system, multi-clan festivals – fascinating. And of course suppressed for so long because it didn’t fit with the ‘narrative’ of a nomadic race dying out and ‘vanishing’ as settlers moved to these new open pastures.
And don’t get me started on “Massacre Bay” and “The Bay of Martyrs” – how did European settlers possibly come up with such interesting names?
But I do find the South-West of Victoria (and the adjoining South-East of South Australia) a fascinating area for many reasons.
Rational Leftist says:
Monday, April 15, 2019 at 9:27 pm
This is why I hate the Israel/Palestine debate. There is no bloody nuance and everyone argues in the worst possible faith. Everyone’s either going to be labelled an anti-semite who would’ve pushed the switches at Auschwitz, or a Netanyahu-loving authoritarian who supports shooting Palestinian teenagers for yelling too loud. And it doesn’t help that both the extremes yell the loudest and neither side is willing to address its more problematic elements.
———————–
Spot on. It is of interest that both the Israelis ( at least those of middle eastern heritage) and the Palestinians are Semite. Most of the Jews I know are very disturbed by the actions of Israel but do not support Palestinian. With my Irish heritage I can sympathies with them
This Gladys Liu seems like a properly nasty piece of work. Labor should make plenty out of her involvement in the last election with the homophobic WeChat campaign. It was vile stuff.
Boerwar says:
Monday, April 15, 2019 at 9:20 pm
TPOF
Why do you prioritize Israel?
_____________________________
I think you are confusing me with some of the others. Not only don’t I prioritise Israel, I said a little earlier this evening that people on both the left and right are using support for Israel or the Palestinians as respective virtue signalling. I’m mainly concerned about the country of my nationality – Australia.
BK – thanks for Kanhai photo. Haven’t seen many days of Test cricket but watched one day at Adelaide when Kanhai made a century against Australia (in both innings I think). Australia had 2 point fielders about 10m apart. I think Kanhai got 7 or 8 4s hitting the ball between them. Quite awe inspiring.
Lao:
What is WMFTE?
No Teri, James does not want to be civil.
And here’s the pea brained Malcolm Roberts.
Laocoon says:
Monday, April 15, 2019 at 9:41 pm
Hey ‘fess
That mumble article you linked seemed very WMFTE…the only mention of a WA seat changing hands was Coalition *winning* Cowan…not the 3-4 Liberal seats at risk of being won by the ALP!
———————————
My daughter bis working in Cowan. From the feedback on the ground the libs are not going to win it.
Laocoon says:
Monday, April 15, 2019 at 9:41 pm
Hey ‘fess
That mumble article you linked seemed very WMFTE…the only mention of a WA seat changing hands was Coalition *winning* Cowan…not the 3-4 Liberal seats at risk of being won by the ALP!
———————————
My daughter bis working in Cowan. From the feedback on the ground the libs are not going to win it.
Henry:
You’re watching Qanda? Brave! 😀
Fess – Wise Men From The East?
I am fess. Ye gods.
Dribbler Roberts is not for watering down the gun laws but he wants to see them altered. Or something.
Henry:
Have tuned in. Trioli has his measure.
Yeah Trioli is quite punchy tonight, good on her.
James McGrath’s and his stupid glasses. My eyes are repelled.
Teri Butler is a low talker.
a r @ #983 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 9:07 pm
I’m staying in a house which has a movie room, complete with movie screen as big as one wall and projector and theatre quality sound system. What Morrison is watching is puny in comparison! 😆
Larissa Waters has Stop Adani earings on
Senator McGrath just gave lawyers the perfect quote for court to stop Adani.
If you were sitting behind boofhead scomo you would be pissed off.
‘fess
WMFTE: my favourite Perth-ism…Wise Man From The East
Heaven knows it was used on me often enough 😀 😀
sprocket_ @ #1022 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 8:03 pm
Symbolic gestures are the forte of the Greens.
Lao:
Oh dear I’m certainly letting down the WA team by not knowing my acronyms! Sorry!!
At the end of the day, the Coalition offers nothing for the future other than tax cuts whilst the ALP is offering a wide range of issues. People are looking at their current position and seeing not what they like and the blame can be solely directed to the Coalition who have not improved their lot over the past 6 years.
The polls might move a touch but believe the result will be as we think 52-48/53-47 ALPs way.
A Conservative questioner asks for a tax rise. Names the GST.
Something about this Advance Australia mob – first they have Captain GetUp rubbing against a billboard of Zali Steggal, and now these attack ads on selected Labor candidates – can you spot the pattern?
C@tmomma @ #884 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 7:41 pm
As with all those pious hypocrites, “Christian” should be in quotation marks as it is merely their self description and lacks any basis in fact.
‘fess
I just take it that you are one of those sandgropers who is actually kind to us Easterners 😉
LNP tax cuts not even popular with conservative LNP voters
😆
“The whole ant-semitism thing smacks of someone seeing the damage it did to UK Labour last year and deciding it’s worth a go here.”
HughB @9:24. Might be something in that.
Cowan is paying $4.70 for a Liberal win on Sportsbet. The West ran a story saying Liberals were confident, then the Australian ran it again the next day. There seems to be no other basis for this idea. Is there some polling out there to back the claim Cowan is in danger?
This is brutal for the LNP
Does Terri Butler get a chance to speak?
There’s no reason why Pearce, Husluck, Swan, etc should be as vulnerable as they are if Cowan is suddenly in danger.
I think it’s more bullshit, doubled up with the fact that the right hate Aly.
Boerwar
Can you ask Bluey what he thinks of Mr Morrison playing tonka trucks on a front end loader today?
Lao:
Correct!
Trioli finally waking up, shutting down rudeness and bullshit.
Teri Butler needs to fire up.
when is labor going to run some ads reminding voters that Morrison:
– Voted and campaigned against SSM
– Abstained from voting when the plebiscite result came in
– Voted against the Banking royal commission 26 times
– Voted against action of climate change
– Voted for all of the Abbott/Hockey budget cuts
– Schemed and voted to take out Turnbull
Trioli has been handed a shit sandwich with this second or third rate panel.
sf
See post I put of article by Michelle Grattan for that last one.
Confessions
Yes. Trioli doing very well against the Misogyny Bullying of McGrah.
No wonder he refused to deny bullying Parkes over Adani
Who is Core Logic?
The FACTS are that the amount Australians owed to our home mortgage lenders in January 2000 was $335 Billion – by RBA data
In January 2010 the amount Australians owed to our home mortgage lenders was $1.226 Trillion – an increase of 350% to the same amount as our GDP
Noting also the appetite of lenders waned with the advent of the GFC from 2008
So elevated debt levels have now been with us for the last 10 plus years, at least
In regards servicing, the interruption of the inflationary cycle with the GFC in 2008 and the reduction of interest rates to accommodative settings which have held for now 11 years has mitigated against servicing pressures – and made the circumstances for paying down debt advantageous (more of what you are paying is coming off principal due to accommodative interest rates)
Housing Loan finance is traditionally on a Credit Foncier basis (principal plus interest repayments over 25 years), so principal is being paid down (and that is a factor in the growth RBA data describes – it is an increase in the face of debt being paid down)
So those who owed that $1.226 Trillion in January 2010 have had the twin advantages of capital value growth and principal debt repayments – so enhanced equity
Yes there are other demographics at play, such as Negative Gearing speculators with risk also to the collateral security provided (to achieve the LVR and to maximise the lending in regard the Negative Geared Property, where loss is maximised for tax minimisation purposes)
But, home owners from that period of extraordinary growth in debt should now be in a comfortable position (given servicing ability remains noting where the Cash Rate maintains)
Core Logic repeat blanket figures where a drilling down is the requirement
People will still buy and sell in the same market, so there will be willing Sellers and willing Buyers
That is the market
But forced sellers?
There have always been those who run to servicing problems – but they are a tiny majority
How many “Mortgagee Auction” signs do you see up in your neighbourhood?
Because the mortgage financier is required to sell at Auction
Those financiers basically lend to 80% LVR, so 20% Equity at least plus the meeting of costs including Statutory costs
Above that there was Mortgage Protection Insurance – and, of course, the ability to service
Which brings us back to wages and the RBA Governor’s comments because accommodative interest rates will not last forever and can not last forever (plus the absence of wages increases compromises the RBA in Rate decisions because of the level of debt which has been with us from the 2000->2010 period)
Inflation will again become a factor – and the catalyst for interest rates increasing as we saw thru the 2004->2007 period prior to the GFC
mundo @ #908 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 7:57 pm
Everybody here gets it.
But you don’t get that others get it.
Do you suffer frequent delusions that you alone are in receipt of special insights?
What bullshit from the “Liberal” guy on Q&A.