Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The first published opinion poll of the campaign records no change in Labor’s modest yet decisive lead.

The Australian brings us a second Newspoll in consecutive weeks, perhaps portending weekly results from now to the election. It shows no change from last week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead, but both major parties are up on the primary vote – Labor by two and the Coalition by one, leaving them tied on 39%. The Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are, interestingly, down two to 4%. All we are told of the leaders’ ratings at this stage is that they are “virtually unchanged”. Scott Morrison is unchanged on 45% approval and up one to 44% disapproval; Bill Shorten is unchanged on both measures, at 37% and 51%; and preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged, at 46-35 in favour of Morrison. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Doesn’t anyone want to sit next to him?

    CAMPAIGN TRAIL

    Who will win the iron throne?
    Tonight a group of travelling journalists found themselves watching Game of Thrones with Scott Morrison, who was keen to prove he was just like every other Australian. (Oz headline and photo)


    EDIT: Sorry photo won’t copy; it’s on Oz website

  2. taylormade

    The crater lake at Mt.Eccles is very pretty – we went there a few times when we lived in Warrnambool. But the broader story of aboriginal life, with permanent structures, fish (and eel?) traps in the Hopkins River system, multi-clan festivals – fascinating. And of course suppressed for so long because it didn’t fit with the ‘narrative’ of a nomadic race dying out and ‘vanishing’ as settlers moved to these new open pastures.

    And don’t get me started on “Massacre Bay” and “The Bay of Martyrs” – how did European settlers possibly come up with such interesting names?

    But I do find the South-West of Victoria (and the adjoining South-East of South Australia) a fascinating area for many reasons.

  3. Rational Leftist says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 9:27 pm
    This is why I hate the Israel/Palestine debate. There is no bloody nuance and everyone argues in the worst possible faith. Everyone’s either going to be labelled an anti-semite who would’ve pushed the switches at Auschwitz, or a Netanyahu-loving authoritarian who supports shooting Palestinian teenagers for yelling too loud. And it doesn’t help that both the extremes yell the loudest and neither side is willing to address its more problematic elements.
    ———————–
    Spot on. It is of interest that both the Israelis ( at least those of middle eastern heritage) and the Palestinians are Semite. Most of the Jews I know are very disturbed by the actions of Israel but do not support Palestinian. With my Irish heritage I can sympathies with them

  4. This Gladys Liu seems like a properly nasty piece of work. Labor should make plenty out of her involvement in the last election with the homophobic WeChat campaign. It was vile stuff.

  5. Boerwar says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 9:20 pm
    TPOF

    Why do you prioritize Israel?
    _____________________________

    I think you are confusing me with some of the others. Not only don’t I prioritise Israel, I said a little earlier this evening that people on both the left and right are using support for Israel or the Palestinians as respective virtue signalling. I’m mainly concerned about the country of my nationality – Australia.

  6. BK – thanks for Kanhai photo. Haven’t seen many days of Test cricket but watched one day at Adelaide when Kanhai made a century against Australia (in both innings I think). Australia had 2 point fielders about 10m apart. I think Kanhai got 7 or 8 4s hitting the ball between them. Quite awe inspiring.

  7. Laocoon says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 9:41 pm
    Hey ‘fess

    That mumble article you linked seemed very WMFTE…the only mention of a WA seat changing hands was Coalition *winning* Cowan…not the 3-4 Liberal seats at risk of being won by the ALP!
    ———————————
    My daughter bis working in Cowan. From the feedback on the ground the libs are not going to win it.

  8. Laocoon says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 9:41 pm
    Hey ‘fess

    That mumble article you linked seemed very WMFTE…the only mention of a WA seat changing hands was Coalition *winning* Cowan…not the 3-4 Liberal seats at risk of being won by the ALP!
    ———————————
    My daughter bis working in Cowan. From the feedback on the ground the libs are not going to win it.

  9. Yeah Trioli is quite punchy tonight, good on her.
    James McGrath’s and his stupid glasses. My eyes are repelled.
    Teri Butler is a low talker.

  10. a r @ #983 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 9:07 pm

    sprocket_ @ #966 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 8:51 pm

    So what is Scotty doing tonight? Watching Game of Thrones new series opener

    <a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>

    Pfft. Can’t even afford the big TV. Has to stick a bunch of little TV’s together and pretend that the gridlines aren’t there. 🙄

    I’m staying in a house which has a movie room, complete with movie screen as big as one wall and projector and theatre quality sound system. What Morrison is watching is puny in comparison! 😆

  11. At the end of the day, the Coalition offers nothing for the future other than tax cuts whilst the ALP is offering a wide range of issues. People are looking at their current position and seeing not what they like and the blame can be solely directed to the Coalition who have not improved their lot over the past 6 years.

    The polls might move a touch but believe the result will be as we think 52-48/53-47 ALPs way.

  12. Something about this Advance Australia mob – first they have Captain GetUp rubbing against a billboard of Zali Steggal, and now these attack ads on selected Labor candidates – can you spot the pattern?

  13. “The whole ant-semitism thing smacks of someone seeing the damage it did to UK Labour last year and deciding it’s worth a go here.”

    HughB @9:24. Might be something in that.

  14. Cowan is paying $4.70 for a Liberal win on Sportsbet. The West ran a story saying Liberals were confident, then the Australian ran it again the next day. There seems to be no other basis for this idea. Is there some polling out there to back the claim Cowan is in danger?

  15. There’s no reason why Pearce, Husluck, Swan, etc should be as vulnerable as they are if Cowan is suddenly in danger.

    I think it’s more bullshit, doubled up with the fact that the right hate Aly.

  16. when is labor going to run some ads reminding voters that Morrison:

    – Voted and campaigned against SSM
    – Abstained from voting when the plebiscite result came in
    – Voted against the Banking royal commission 26 times
    – Voted against action of climate change
    – Voted for all of the Abbott/Hockey budget cuts
    – Schemed and voted to take out Turnbull

  17. Confessions

    Yes. Trioli doing very well against the Misogyny Bullying of McGrah.

    No wonder he refused to deny bullying Parkes over Adani

  18. Who is Core Logic?

    The FACTS are that the amount Australians owed to our home mortgage lenders in January 2000 was $335 Billion – by RBA data

    In January 2010 the amount Australians owed to our home mortgage lenders was $1.226 Trillion – an increase of 350% to the same amount as our GDP

    Noting also the appetite of lenders waned with the advent of the GFC from 2008

    So elevated debt levels have now been with us for the last 10 plus years, at least

    In regards servicing, the interruption of the inflationary cycle with the GFC in 2008 and the reduction of interest rates to accommodative settings which have held for now 11 years has mitigated against servicing pressures – and made the circumstances for paying down debt advantageous (more of what you are paying is coming off principal due to accommodative interest rates)

    Housing Loan finance is traditionally on a Credit Foncier basis (principal plus interest repayments over 25 years), so principal is being paid down (and that is a factor in the growth RBA data describes – it is an increase in the face of debt being paid down)

    So those who owed that $1.226 Trillion in January 2010 have had the twin advantages of capital value growth and principal debt repayments – so enhanced equity

    Yes there are other demographics at play, such as Negative Gearing speculators with risk also to the collateral security provided (to achieve the LVR and to maximise the lending in regard the Negative Geared Property, where loss is maximised for tax minimisation purposes)

    But, home owners from that period of extraordinary growth in debt should now be in a comfortable position (given servicing ability remains noting where the Cash Rate maintains)

    Core Logic repeat blanket figures where a drilling down is the requirement

    People will still buy and sell in the same market, so there will be willing Sellers and willing Buyers

    That is the market

    But forced sellers?

    There have always been those who run to servicing problems – but they are a tiny majority

    How many “Mortgagee Auction” signs do you see up in your neighbourhood?

    Because the mortgage financier is required to sell at Auction

    Those financiers basically lend to 80% LVR, so 20% Equity at least plus the meeting of costs including Statutory costs

    Above that there was Mortgage Protection Insurance – and, of course, the ability to service

    Which brings us back to wages and the RBA Governor’s comments because accommodative interest rates will not last forever and can not last forever (plus the absence of wages increases compromises the RBA in Rate decisions because of the level of debt which has been with us from the 2000->2010 period)

    Inflation will again become a factor – and the catalyst for interest rates increasing as we saw thru the 2004->2007 period prior to the GFC

  19. mundo @ #908 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 7:57 pm

    ‘Another guy who says that we’re in surplus and Labor just want to spend all our money.’

    Just to make the point, lots and lots of people think this.
    The media told them there was a surplus.
    It’s so freakin basic….and politically deadly for Labor.
    I can’t believe some here don’t get it.

    Everybody here gets it.
    But you don’t get that others get it.
    Do you suffer frequent delusions that you alone are in receipt of special insights?

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