Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The first published opinion poll of the campaign records no change in Labor’s modest yet decisive lead.

The Australian brings us a second Newspoll in consecutive weeks, perhaps portending weekly results from now to the election. It shows no change from last week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead, but both major parties are up on the primary vote – Labor by two and the Coalition by one, leaving them tied on 39%. The Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are, interestingly, down two to 4%. All we are told of the leaders’ ratings at this stage is that they are “virtually unchanged”. Scott Morrison is unchanged on 45% approval and up one to 44% disapproval; Bill Shorten is unchanged on both measures, at 37% and 51%; and preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged, at 46-35 in favour of Morrison. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. “Josh Wilson has been condemned by Jewish groups after it emerged he’d said Palestine was being turned into “Swiss cheese”.”

    Has he?? Seriously not going to make any difference in Fremantle. I’d think that a lot of the ALP and Greens supporters here are actually rational enough to support the positions of both Josh and Melissa Parkes about Israel in the context of the Israeli / Palestinian problem.

    If there are issues in this election that people care about, Israel / Palestine rates pretty low on people radar. Not going to shift any votes.

  2. Rocket Rocket
    says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 8:36 pm
    taylormade, pica
    I love it that there are local aboriginal stories of some of the volcanoes around Mount Gambier erupting (the last happened around 5000 years ago), and similar stories of some in Western Victoria.
    ______________________
    Indigenous people of Melbourne told the first European arrivals that the Yarra used to flow through Port Phillip Bay, which was land, and then empty into Bass Strait at the Rip. Decades later this was shown to be true and was the case around 20,000 years ago or thereabouts.

  3. And he also says that Hunt had been plotting to become Liberal leader with Dutton as leader going back to when Labor first regained office in 2007! 😮

  5. TPOF @8:35
    “On both the left and the right. It’s actually of low relevance to us but is used by various sides to out or embarrass their opponents.”

    I agree. Boerwar’s tentacled alter-ego set out some conflicts that are far worse, far closer and of more relevance to Australia.

    But bullshit needs to be called out.

  6. Rocket Rocket @ #711 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 8:15 pm

    Upnorth

    And echidnas in New Guinea. Rare to see here – rarer over there apparently.

    One of my favorite wildlife encounters is with a baby echidna in western Vic. It was tiny, less than a quarter of the size of an adult. So as it had buried it’s snout I just laid down in front of it and determined to be as quiet as possible. After a few minutes it raised its snout, with it’s little beady eyes, it was gorgeous! Unforgettable.
    ——————–
    Shut up. You make me yearn for my youth running through the bush.

  7. mundo says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 7:57 pm
    ‘Another guy who says that we’re in surplus and Labor just want to spend all our money.’

    Just to make the point, lots and lots of people think this.
    The media told them there was a surplus.
    It’s so freakin basic….and politically deadly for Labor.
    I can’t believe some here don’t get it.

    ____________________________________

    We all get it – at least I do. The problem is that Labor is playing to its weakness in trying to argue against it. Every word spent trying to counter the bullshit is a word that could be spent sending the health message (and education which, I suspect, is coming in this campaign). Labor gets a bigger bang for the voting buck in the current political environment by doubling down on its strengths, rather than wasting time and energy trying to stem minor losses on areas that were never going to win many votes for them.

  11. “Is he a local “Liberal”?”

    If he is, some journo will out him pretty quickly. That would be a very basic thing to check before writing anything on this.

    On how it would play politically?

    Shorten seems to have handled this intervention well in the moment as it was happening. Made it personal and genuine.

    If the bloke turns out to be a Liberal plant then no prob. ALP will govern for everyone and doesn’t matter what your politics you can still get sick. We will hear you and try to help.

    Only downside would be if he turned out to be a Labor plant. Which he will be accused of if anyone discovers he may have been a union member at anytime in his life (and then he;s a union THUG! ) or possibly walked within 200m of a union or alp meeting at any point. 🙂

  12. Cassowaries are often raised from young chicks to adulthood in many parts of PNG. They are very aggressive and kept in compounds, cages or hobbled and tied to a stake or tree. They are the most desirable of red bird meat, having had the opportunity on a number of occasions to feast on their meat.

  13. nath – fascinating

    I can imagine those aboriginal people after telling that to those first Europeans in Victoria.

    “And ye tell young people thaat today, and they don’t believe ye”

  14. Pegasus says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 8:43 pm
    I wonder how Wilson feels about Albaneses’s refusal to endorse his comments / facts.

    _____________________________________

    You’d be among a very small and select group.

  15. “I wonder how Wilson feels about Albaneses’s refusal to endorse his comments / facts.”

    From seeing them together and how they interact i dont think either of them have a problem with it.

    Remember peg, they are not silly Greens. They are both big boys,

  16. The Australia Day long weekend used to see the 5th Test at Adelaide Oval – so Benaud being put over the Victor Richardson Gates first ball after lunch by Kanhia on the way to centuries in each innings, then Slasher and Kline and WW Hall

    And Lillee’s Test debut

    And North Adelaide having an extra player on the field in a Preliminary Final – hence minus premiership points this season

    Mind you the Number 2 deck out the back was the best batting pitch in the World!!!

  17. I don’t watch broadcast TV much (more into streaming) but I happened to have the TV on a commercial network yesterday evening and it was saturated with Labor ads. Don’t think I heard a Liberal one (although I heard one a few nights before so I know they’re happening.)

    Basically Shorten giving his elevator pitch in a positive tone. FWIW, he does come across a little flat but his message is spot-on: focusing on issues like healthcare, education and taxing the rich. So, it’s definitely not tone-deaf and fortunately not awkwardly trying to sound like a charismatic, messianic figure nor are they falling into the trap of trying to patch perceived weaknesses (i.e. trying to sell themselves as deficit hawks or strong on borders.)

    Not memorable but at least it’s putting the cards on the table, so good job.

  18. I think Sukkar has had his one Morrison visit of the campaign. Morrison will not go to Deakin again – looks desperate in a seat they hold by 6% and reminds people that Sukkar was a big backer of Dutton.

    Amazed to see Sukkar out of hiding in Deakin. A rare sighting since last August!

  21. So what is Scotty doing tonight? Watching Game of Thrones new series opener

    Oh Jesus Christ. We’re going to be exposed to references from that show over the next few weeks while he campaigns, aren’t we? If not him, other politicians. Please, love of god, don’t.

    Thankfully, House of Cards has already long burned out.

  22. Rocket Rocket @ #967 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 6:50 pm

    I think Sukkar has had his one Morrison visit of the campaign. Morrison will not go to Deakin again – looks desperate in a seat they hold by 6% and reminds people that Sukkar was a big backer of Dutton.

    Amazed to see Sukkar out of hiding in Deakin. A rare sighting since last August!

    Did you catch PvO’s Ch10 segment today on Morrison’s adventure to Deakin? Not good.

    https://twitter.com/10NewsFirst/status/1117693034261385216

  23. As a CFA volunteer you would expect a Liberal Party connection – where did the “Save the CFA”, Murdoch backed donations finish up once revealed?

    The resolution of the demarcation dispute between the Metropolitan Fire Brigade and the Country Fire Service was used for political purposes by the Liberals and Murdoch – and will now resolve based on turf

    The CFA is a branch office of the Liberal Party

  24. Interesting that pentacostalists are allowed to watch a show like GoT. I saw earlier today Chinese audiences imploring their govt not to censure out the sex and violence. But a happy clapper has no reservations in pulling up a pew and parking himself front and centre in front of the big screen.

    #religioushypocrites

  25. “Everyone thinks I’m heading in the direction of Yorick the Dragonslayer but I think you’ll find I am actually more like Cecil of Alrath and the Pigwash Alliance! (cheesy grin as the press giggle because he knows TV shows)”

  26. Observer
    As a younger person I so well remember Rohan Kanhai’s superb cover drives with his knee touching the ground. A truly classical batsman.

  27. Rocket rocket

    I have read that our Milky Way has never been ‘officially’ named, that the name just sort of evolved?

    Very good question which I admit I have never pondered before. i will try and find the history.
    I do know when working in Chile I saw a poster about the “Via Lactea” and realise other languages use “Milky Way”.

  30. Pegasus says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 6:07 pm
    How Shorten’s visit in Deakin to chat with a “fair dinkum” family was reported in the local paper – The Whitehorse Leader:

    But the Labor trio weren’t in a talkative mood, with Mr Shorten taking only three questions posed by reporters – one on the chances of winning Deakin, one on negative gearing and the last on MPs in Queensland being gagged about talking about Adani’s bid to start mining in Queensland.

    The Whitehorse Leader is a Murdoch paper, so it would be totally unbiased!!!

    https://www.newscorpaustralia.com/brand/whitehorse-leader/

  32. Confessions

    That side-to-side swaying with a smug expression always means that Morrison has a prepared answer and is not actually listening to the questioner. It is quite irritating.

    And as for “slamming Labor on debt” – interesting when they have doubled the national debt in under six years.

  33. In my youth in the late 1960s and early 1970s I was a strong supporter of Israel.The kibbutz system was very attractive to a young socialist. Over time as i became more aware of what was actually happening I began questioning my position. My awareness of the reality was helped by information from a young couple of Israeli socialists who had migrated to Perth because they had lost faith in Israel. Over time I have moved to be a strong supporter of Palestine. I know it is offensive to say this and that is why I say it. The Jewish right learnt a lot from the Nazis. I am long tired of political correctness helping to hide the atrocities being committed in Palestine and hidden in the name of the the Genocide.

  35. Douglas and Milko

    In New Zealand a few weeks ago I found that the names “North Island” and “South Island” had never been official until recently, and now also with their Maori names.

  37. PS

    I am long tired of political correctness helping to hide the atrocities being committed in Palestine and hidden in the name of the the Genocide.

    ____________________________________

    Hidden? Shades of Andrew Bolt declaring that his free speech has been crushed.

  39. A Labor Government needs to do something to counter the malign influence of the Murdochracy. It’s not a free speech issue. It is not healthy for one organisation to have such a stranglehold.

    So media diversity laws, not allowing one organisation to own more than x% of a market, where x < 50. If the Murdochocracy can't expand, maybe they'll divest voluntarily.

    Or maybe truth in media laws. You can't make shit up and publish it as news. That would destroy their business model.

    Or maybe just make the organisation pay its tax. Faced with that, maybe they'll bugger off.

  40. Rocket Rocket

    Love the rich aboriginal history around the South West also. The Gunditjmara believe that more than 30,000 years ago, the creation spirit Budj Bim revealed himself in the landscape by forming a huge volcano that we now know as Mt Eccles. Budj Bim then shared his blood and his teeth with this people in the form of a lava flow that formed the wetlands that the Gunditjmara made their home.

    Budj Bim and Lake Condah are nominated for World Heritage listing with an answer expected in Mid 2019.

  41. And as for “slamming Labor on debt” – interesting when they have doubled the national debt in under six years.

    Yes. I look forward to Labor ramping up on this during the campaign.

  42. TPOF

    Why do you prioritize Israel?

    When was the last time you got stuck into China’s treatment of the Uighers. One in every 25 Uighers is in a concentration camp. The treatment of those not in concentration camps is brutal and amounts to cultural genocide.

    When was the last time you got stuck into Myanmmar for the Rohingya ethnic cleansing? An entire people murdered, raped and burned out of their homelands and turned into refugees.

    When was the last time you got stuck into Indonesia for the colonization with extreme cruelty of West Irian?

    When you get stuck into Israel do you at the same time get stuck into Iran for its grand vision for pushing Israel’s Jews into the sea?

  43. The whole ant-semitism thing smacks of someone seeing the damage it did to UK Labour last year and deciding it’s worth a go here.

  45. TPOF says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 9:09 pm
    PS

    I am long tired of political correctness helping to hide the atrocities being committed in Palestine and hidden in the name of the the Genocide.

    ____________________________________

    Hidden? Shades of Andrew Bolt declaring that his free speech has been crushed.
    ————————
    I think I demonstrated that my free speech has not been crushed. I do not give a fuck about anything that Bolt may say. Free speech also allows us to ignore the speech of others. My pointy was that Israel has used the genocide to justify committing some things disturbing like it against the Palestinians. There is a large difference between a Jew and a zionist.

  46. TPOF says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 9:09 pm
    PS

    I am long tired of political correctness helping to hide the atrocities being committed in Palestine and hidden in the name of the the Genocide.

    ____________________________________

    Hidden? Shades of Andrew Bolt declaring that his free speech has been crushed.
    ————————
    I think I demonstrated that my free speech has not been crushed. I do not give a fuck about anything that Bolt may say. Free speech also allows us to ignore the speech of others. My pointy was that Israel has used the genocide to justify committing some things disturbing like it against the Palestinians. There is a large difference between a Jew and a zionist.

  47. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 9:13 pm
    ——————–
    I love it but you may need legal assistance when the aliens sue.,

  48. This is why I hate the Israel/Palestine debate. There is no bloody nuance and everyone argues in the worst possible faith. Everyone’s either going to be labelled an anti-semite who would’ve pushed the switches at Auschwitz, or a Netanyahu-loving authoritarian who supports shooting Palestinian teenagers for yelling too loud. And it doesn’t help that both the extremes yell the loudest and neither side is willing to address its more problematic elements.

  49. ‘HughB says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 9:24 pm

    The whole ant-semitism thing smacks of someone seeing the damage it did to UK Labour last year and deciding it’s worth a go here.’

    It certainly continues to damage British Labour. Whether it will continue to damage Australian Labor is primarily up to the members, MPs and leadership. I have no doubt at all that these, combined, will keep anti-semitism at bay.

  50. The Australian has a headline that says that SH-Y and Larissa Waters might be in a spot of bother in the Senate.
    Does anyone know whether this has any basis other than the standard Oz bastardry?

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