The Australian brings us a second Newspoll in consecutive weeks, perhaps portending weekly results from now to the election. It shows no change from last week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead, but both major parties are up on the primary vote – Labor by two and the Coalition by one, leaving them tied on 39%. The Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are, interestingly, down two to 4%. All we are told of the leaders’ ratings at this stage is that they are “virtually unchanged”. Scott Morrison is unchanged on 45% approval and up one to 44% disapproval; Bill Shorten is unchanged on both measures, at 37% and 51%; and preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged, at 46-35 in favour of Morrison. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.
Thats a good result 52- 48. Enough for a 3 percent swing in enough seats and some baseball bats in others. I CAN relax now. Phew. And have a look at the ALP PV 39% . That clinches it.
Seems closer to 53-47 to me. At least by last election.
Like I posted in last thread, would be nice to know if Newspoll is adjusting for One Nation not running in all seats. (Maybe only polling them in QLD and NSW?)
Also since a lot of One Nation voters have shifted to LNP, it is logical to think this should lessen the preference flow to LNP. Wonder how relevant is the methodology change.
I note Penny Wong again attacking the Greens today on twitter.
Such attacks will only harm Labors vote in the senate as Greens voters may well leave Labor out of their preferences altogether.
True dat.
Let’s hope that their vote disintegrates this election. Obviously Hanson will still be there in the Senate after the election, but if she ends up a lone wolf I’ll be happy.
Yes, 39% is a very high primary for Labor. If they get that they will win as the Greens will get 10% or so.
Newspoll seems to be saying that that the LNP will snare a good deal more than 50% of the non-green smaller party preferences. How does that work?
Kevin Bonham agrees closer to 53 – 47
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, April 14, 2019 at 9:55 pm
I note Penny Wong again attacking the Greens today on twitter.
Such attacks will only harm Labors vote in the senate as Greens voters may well leave Labor out of their preferences altogether.
And exactly what was the black wiggle doing on insiders today? You reap what you sow.
Mumble on the Newspoll primaries.
IIRC at the start of the Victorian election campaign the polls tightened a bit but as the campaign wore on Labor stretched their lead convincingly.
Same will happen in this election is my tip. L/NP wipeout.
Mr Bonham says…
This would normally come out to a 2PP of 52.9-47.1 by 2016 prefs. Even considering #Newspoll ‘s One Nation etc adjustments, the 52-48 2PP has probably been rounded from something near 52.5-47.5. Especially with PHON now only on 4.
At the end of the day realistically voting for smaller parties that will never have the numbers to govern the country is a wasted vote.
I agree @Rex. Unless there is a massive curve ball, I can see a 53 or 54 TPP to Labor at the election and good riddance to the Coalition.
Rex
Give it a rest
2016 The Greens 250,263 LNP 18.06 1,135,387 Labor 81.94
frednk @ #9 Sunday, April 14th, 2019 – 9:59 pm
He was offering a closer working arrangement. It’s up to Labor now if they reject that in favour of the Libs.
Penny Wongs attacks are illogical in terms of gaining Greens voter preferences in the senate.
Labor will win with a 39% primary vote. Small gain to the Coalition but not sufficient to alarm ShortenInc.
Labor vote might get stronger this time as voters jump on the bandwagon to back a winner.
Confessions
I hope you are right about One Nation
It would be good if Labor and Greens preference each other in the ACT so the right doesn’t get the one that One or the other side gets.
Same in Tasmania. No matter what partisan gripes Labor has with the Greens they are better than One Nation from a progressive viewpoint.
#Newspoll Morrison: Approve 45 (0) Disapprove 44 (+1) #auspol
Labor look home and hosed but there were a lot of confident comments about the NSW election, and that did not quite go the way a lot of cocky Labor supporters said it would.
It is a very low One Nation figure. There is always an “other” right wing vote which is larger than 4% which means it will be going to somewhere other than the majors. I am not sure that has been considered.
Kevin Rudd was too afraid of a DD when his Climate Change package was defeated by the Greens/Liberals in the Senate.
Bill Shorten may well have the opportunity to correct that mis step, if the same circumstances arise again.
Steve Davis
We have preferential voting not First Past the Post. So nope not a wasted vote. That’s the whole point.
Ah ha! Ashby and Dickson’s brilliant strategy to “grab the government by the balls” sure is working a treat! lol
De Natale and Penny Wong did have an exchange on twitter. Penny won hands down. De Natale’s twitter feed full of disenchanted Greens infuriated that he continued to slag off Labor on Insiders. Overwhelmingly negative about him.
Now if Four Corners could just do a multi-part story on where the Liberal
party gets its money from…
Which Senators does PHON have standing this time. Fairly likely they will not get any more.
As soon as Wayne said the Coalition was ahead 52-48 ahead you knew it would be the other way round shortly afterwards.
Malcolm Roberts in Qld is a PHON candidate.
I doubt anybody will risk a Double Dissolution in the near term. There is too many third parties at the moment. However the threat of a DD might work on some of the senators who risk unemployment.
Kate
How do you know they were not Labor people?
Did they declare their party membership?
PHoN have Pauline herself with a 6 year term – not up for election this time.
The rest of her motley crew have deserted (Burston, Anning), been S44ed out (Roberts, Cullen) or are staring at the gangplank (Geirgio)
Better PM Morrison 46 – Shorten 35 (unchanged)
“De Natale’s twitter feed full of disenchanted Greens infuriated that he continued to slag off Labor on Insiders. Overwhelmingly negative about him.”
You mean Labor trolls. Actual Greens members, such as myself, thought RDN was great on Insiders. I fully support him calling out Labor when it’s warranted, which it often is.
My back of the envelope calculation:
ALP 2PP = 0 + 39 + 0.8 * 9 + 0.4*4 + 0.5*9 = 52.3.
Margin of error is about 2% for sample size 2,000, about 3% for 1,000.
I hope the coalition lose the May election as I can’t stand Michel kogar as he is a dickhead
With 16.7% required for a Senate seat this time, and no preference whispering, the minors -including PHoN – are likely going to be wiped out
Holden Hillbilly @ #33 Sunday, April 14th, 2019 – 10:12 pm
Wow !
Looks like the only change is ON. Polls set in stone otherwise.A bit like 3 years ago where it basically stayed 50-50 for 8 weeks straight.
Firefox
I thought the same. I am not a Greens member either.
Its only partisans that saw only attacks on Labor.
Two Newspolls in a row now where the Coalition primary vote is up (now 39%). If the Coalition primary vote is 40% or higher on election day, PM Morrison will win. Coalition starting to look good in Victoria now as well, we will win Melbourne Ports and Indi, in addition to Lindsay, Herbert and Braddon.
So One Nation down from 6% to 4%, a 33% loss!
Pauline Hanson’s support has crashed, handing Scott Morrison the equal-best primary vote for the Coalition since just after the last election but also strengthening Labor’s lead.
“Kevin Rudd was too afraid of a DD when his Climate Change package was defeated by the Greens/Liberals in the Senate.
Bill Shorten may well have the opportunity to correct that mis step, if the same circumstances arise again.”
Quite.
“With 16.7% required for a Senate seat this time, and no preference whispering, the minors -including PHoN – are likely going to be wiped out”
Thanks to the Senate reforms that the Greens passed. Labor supported the reforms too until they decided to pull a cheap stunt and vote against them. They’ll be thinking us when they don’t have to deal with a bunch of random senators from micro parties who next to nobody voted for.
There will be no wins in Tasmania.It was 50-50 last time and the Libs won none.
Sprocket
Yes. I will miss Tom Storrer. I think he was up for this election
Bree I thing the Coalition need 42% primary to win narrowly. 41 would likely be minority government territory.
RdN was totally unable to deal with the question about Greens and transparency. Cassidy failed to press him on this – it was a very soft interview.
Morrison has no agenda to turn anyones votes around.He is just a blank canvas of negativity.