Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The first published opinion poll of the campaign records no change in Labor’s modest yet decisive lead.

The Australian brings us a second Newspoll in consecutive weeks, perhaps portending weekly results from now to the election. It shows no change from last week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead, but both major parties are up on the primary vote – Labor by two and the Coalition by one, leaving them tied on 39%. The Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are, interestingly, down two to 4%. All we are told of the leaders’ ratings at this stage is that they are “virtually unchanged”. Scott Morrison is unchanged on 45% approval and up one to 44% disapproval; Bill Shorten is unchanged on both measures, at 37% and 51%; and preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged, at 46-35 in favour of Morrison. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Scott

    Jason Ball is doing Higgins again. We all here know about Burnside in Kooyong.

    None of this BS the Greens are only targeting Labor seats.

    Facts have to count

  2. Pity it’s not Trump at Mar El Lago

    “A Florida man was killed on Friday, Florida time, by a cassowary – the enormous, flightless bird native to Queensland.

    He raised the animal on his farm, along with other exotic birds, authorities said.”

    My Grandad saw these great birds south of Townsville before the war. Now sadly well to the North

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/north-america/florida-man-killed-by-cassowary-he-kept-on-his-farm-20190415-p51ea7.html

  3. ‘My Grandad used to see these great birds well south of Townsville during the war. Now sadly pushed further North.’

    Florida’s pretty far North.

  4. B.S. Fairman says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 7:41 pm
    Yep, that Captain GetUp! stuff is just strange.

    —————–

    Imagine if Labor had an propaganda Mascot to represent IPA and did what Advance Australia /libs/nats had done with candidate on a poster, the media would be attacking Shorten 24/7

  5. BK

    Maybe ask Israel Folau – I’m sure he would have something in mind for them!

    By the way, North Adelaide’s Callum Wilkie has been brilliant for St.Kilda this year. Very cool under pressure, and clearly making the most of his opportunity to play in the AFL that he thought had probably passed him by.

    We are also waiting for Robbie Young to make his debut – again a guy grabbing his second chance.

  6. ‘Another guy who says that we’re in surplus and Labor just want to spend all our money.’

    Just to make the point, lots and lots of people think this.
    The media told them there was a surplus.
    It’s so freakin basic….and politically deadly for Labor.
    I can’t believe some here don’t get it.

  7. guytaur says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 7:54 pm
    Scott

    Jason Ball is doing Higgins again. We all here know about Burnside in Kooyong.

    None of this BS the Greens are only targeting Labor seats.

    Facts have to count

    ———————-

    Well that’s good then ,

  8. B.S. Fairman says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 7:41 pm
    Yep, that Captain GetUp! stuff is just strange. What is the big deal with the whole Australia day thing? It is not something many people are going to die in a ditch for. Especially in Victoria, where the day was on a Monday at the end of January until 1994.
    As for the whole thing about the ALP candidate being a woman, what’s that got to do with the price of fish?
    ————–
    The Australia day holiday used to be the closest Monday to make a long weekend. In the country town I grew up in it was, like most country towns a big sporting weekend. This meant that everyone gathered together to enjoy a variety of sporting pleasures. Howard as part of his culture wars and in an attempt to rob workers of a public holiday moved it to the actual day. It has now become a big bogan day. ” what’s that got to do with the price of fish?” Fish are far to expensive and far to old when they reach the supermarket. And that is important to people who are as bad at fishing as me.

  9. Scott @ #905 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 5:56 pm

    B.S. Fairman says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 7:41 pm
    Yep, that Captain GetUp! stuff is just strange.

    —————–

    Imagine if Labor had an propaganda Mascot to represent IPA and did what Advance Australia /libs/nats had done with candidate on a poster, the media would be attacking Shorten 24/7

    If Labor had a Capt GetUp equivalent it would be a hell of a lot better targetted and meaningful.

  10. Upnorth

    Saw a mother cross a dirt road in front of us on the way to Wallaman Falls (inland from Ingham) at dusk about 30 years ago. A ‘gaggle’ of chicks were running behind her – one of my favourite wildlife memories of all time. Of course had we been walking and come across the mum and her chicks it could have been a very different story!

    Someone I know told me they saw one in PNG – always forget they are there also. In fact they were first documented by European naturalists there before Europeans had visited the East Coast of Australia.

  11. Confessions, there does seem to be a sense of wanting it done, going through the motions, impatience, stress for tragics. (Mumble comes across as a shrug and “who knows?” I think there’s a bit of that among the opinion writers.)

  12. Confessions

    Labor and the Greens don’t have to have a Captain GetUp!

    They have the real thing. You could feel the hatred from Dutton through the screen when he talked about them.

    Edit: BTW it was a bowling club. Retiree crowd.

  13. Confessions says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 8:00 pm

    If Labor had a Capt GetUp equivalent it would be a hell of a lot better targetted and meaningful.

    ——————————

    100% correct

  14. BK

    Someone I met from Perth years ago (before 1987 when West Coast were formed) described the end of the WAFL season as the ‘reverse draft’ – the better your team had gone, the more players they lost to the VFL, ensuring that they went down the ladder the following year. I think they said Claremont once lost more than half a premiership team!

  15. I’ve had this idea in me head for the good part of the day.

    What if Company Tax and Income Tax on higher earners was increased in exchange for a decrease in the GST?

    Would this work or would it just piss off the States?

  16. Steve777 says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 7:48 pm
    “The first woman was a volunteer of the local surf club which received $200K in federal funding thanks to Dutton’s intervention !”

    Dickson is landlocked.
    ———————
    Yes Dickson is land locked but Palm Beach Where Dutton actually lives does have a surf club.

  17. Rocket Rocket says Monday, April 15, 2019 at 8:01 pm

    Saw a mother cross a dirt road in front of us on the way to Wallaman Falls (inland from Ingham) at dusk about 30 years ago. A ‘gaggle’ of chicks were running behind her – one of my favourite wildlife memories of all time. Of course had we been walking and come across the mum and her chicks it could have been a very different story!

    Someone I know told me they saw one in PNG – always forget they are there also. In fact they were first documented by European naturalists there before Europeans had visited the East Coast of Australia.

    That would have been the father. Male cassowarys rear the young.

  18. The 7.30 report re Dutton referenced a grant to a rowing club not a surf club. As a ex surf club member that is a big difference.

    Hope that clears things up.

    Cheers.

  19. Yes Dickson is land locked but Palm Beach Where Dutton actually lives does have a surf club.

    I think he uses the ‘landlocked’ thing as an ‘excuse’ as to why he usually resides in his Palm Beach mansion rather than in the electorate of Dickson!

    And I agree – I think most people have made up their minds which is why the polls are stubbornly not shifting from the 52-53 range.

  20. You could feel the hatred from Dutton through the screen when he talked about them.

    You can sense the hatred the reactionary Liberals have for GetUp any time you watch and listen to Orange Styrofoam Man parading around the place. That video from Deakin is just weird. Doesn’t name the Labor candidate in Deakin, which seems to defeat the purpose of tying Labor to GetUp in that seat. But does name the sitting Liberal candidate, which would work in opposition to what Capt GetUp is supposed to be doing.

    If political tragics like us are confused, you can imagine how disengaged voters are perceiving this palaver.

  21. Rocket Rocket says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 8:01 pm
    Upnorth

    Saw a mother cross a dirt road in front of us on the way to Wallaman Falls (inland from Ingham) at dusk about 30 years ago. A ‘gaggle’ of chicks were running behind her – one of my favourite wildlife memories of all time. Of course had we been walking and come across the mum and her chicks it could have been a very different story!

    Someone I know told me they saw one in PNG – always forget they are there also. In fact they were first documented by European naturalists there before Europeans had visited the East Coast of Australia.
    ———————————————
    Then it was Dad you saw. Dads raise Cassowary Chicks!! Dad is very protective.

    Yes. PNG and some of the Melanesian Islands have them along with Wallabies and Tree kangaroos.

  22. This latest local Israel-Palestinian kerfuffle was prominent in the ABC Radio news at 2:00PM, but looking at the landing pages for the ABC and the SMH, the only occurrence of the word “Israel” is in relation to a certain Rugby player.

    So has it blown over, or will the Murdoch noise machine keep it alive? Rhetorical question.

    And what gives? Isn’t criticism of Israel allowed? If someone suggests that Israel is less than a model global citizen, can they expect to be attacked as anti Semitic? Rhetorical question. But unlike the Coalition, Labor wants Australia to have an independent foreign policy, not one that unconditionally accepts the policies and positions of the USA, which in turn means unconditional support for Israel.

    Deprived of race-baiting by “events”, the Coalition have decided to go by the principle of “accuse your opponent of what you are doing” and, with their media wing Newscrap, go on the attack, trawling through the archives for anything they can pile on to.

    Israel is trying to create an apartheid state, with Palestinians maybe getting municipal rights in tiny cantons. It’s not anti Semitic to say that.

  23. There is always going to be people claiming there is a surplus because they read it in Murdoch papers or they hate Labor. Just like there were Americans that believed Obama was Muslim. You can’t expect Labor to try to target these people.

    Those vox pops are utterly meaningless. Usually attracting misinformed or partisans.

  24. Rocket Rocket @ #711 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 8:15 pm

    Upnorth

    And echidnas in New Guinea. Rare to see here – rarer over there apparently.

    One of my favorite wildlife encounters is with a baby echidna in western Vic. It was tiny, less than a quarter of the size of an adult. So as it had buried it’s snout I just laid down in front of it and determined to be as quiet as possible. After a few minutes it raised its snout, with it’s little beady eyes, it was gorgeous! Unforgettable.

  25. Steve777

    I remember about ten years ago Jon Faine on ABC Radio Melbourne was due to have a writer Anthony Loewenstein on his ‘conversation hour’ to talk about his book “My Israel Question” which I think from memory was a book written by this Jewish author which was quite critical of the State of Israel. Also on the show was someone who was there to rebut the author.

    On the day it was to happen, Jon Faine was off sick (or at a funeral, I can’t remember), and he left the hosting duties to the Sports radio-journalist Gerard Whateley. I think I heard the start of it and immediately felt sorry for Gerard who was possibly thinking regarding Jon Faine “Well this is another fine mess you’ve gotten me into”. Later when Jon went on his trans-Asia drive with one of his sons, Gerard filled in for a few weeks and did an excellent job. Maybe it was that ‘baptism of fire’ that got him the gig!

  26. You’ll occasionally see echidnas in Lane Cove National park, about 14 km from the centre of Sydney, grazing in picnic areas or sometimes on the road.

  27. The media told them there was a surplus.
    It’s so freakin basic….and politically deadly for Labor.
    I can’t believe some here don’t get it.

    Labor cannot do anything about this narrative. Talking about surplus/not a surplus is simply accepting the Coalition (and dominant media) framing of this issue, and Labor can’t win that, particularly not by taking what will seem like a petty, pedantic position about whether the surplus is really going to happen or not. As soon as Labor start down that path it opens up all the Swan promises of surpluses, all the Labor deficits, etc – which, of course the LNP want to talk about because it suits their framing and reinforces the very perceptions that you are trying to tear down.

    Labor need to, and are, talking about the things they want to talk about – health, education, fairness, stability, non-shoutiness, etc.

  28. Steve777

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-15/federal-election-campaign-wrap-cancer-funding-blackhole-dutton/11003402

    Even further west in Perth, Labor MPs past and present have worked themselves into knots over Israel.

    From star candidate one day, to former candidate the next, Melissa Parke’s return to federal politics was brief.

    Old comments on Israel cost her political comeback and now the Coalition is hoping other comments on the issue will end the incumbency of the Labor MP in Fremantle.

    Josh Wilson has been condemned by Jewish groups after it emerged he’d said Palestine was being turned into “Swiss cheese”.

    Senior Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese refused to endorse the comments and insisted his party was only focused on key issues like education and health ahead of the election.

  29. Jackol

    Mr Shorten talking to the Firey Cancer Survivor is a very very cut through image.

    This the day the diss the disabled from Dutton was fading.

  30. “Josh Wilson has been condemned by Jewish groups after it emerged he’d said Palestine was being turned into “Swiss cheese”.”

    Which is a simple statement of observed facts.

  31. I had a great childhood playground Taylormade, Towerhill was my backyard, a wonderful place. And then nearby were some fantastic beaches, just ace!

  32. The whole question of Israel/Palestine is very much in the area of virtue signalling in this country. On both the left and the right. It’s actually of low relevance to us but is used by various sides to out or embarrass their opponents. Enough.

  33. And the cancer guy thinks he’ll get a better deal from the Coalition? Well maybe if he’s rich. Maybe he has lots of negatively geared properties or gets lots of free money from franking credits. Is he a local “Liberal”?

  34. taylormade, pica

    I love it that there are local aboriginal stories of some of the volcanoes around Mount Gambier erupting (the last happened around 5000 years ago), and similar stories of some in Western Victoria.

    https://theconversation.com/australias-volcanic-history-is-a-lot-more-recent-than-you-think-58766

    I drove then walked to the top of Mount Rouse near Penshurst in SW Victoria last year – you get a great view from the top of this scoria cone volcano (extinct) as the land around it is so flat.

  35. PvO says that while Dutton may be the hard right MP he has a lot of friends in the party who are not hard right, but middle of the road even moderate.

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