Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The first published opinion poll of the campaign records no change in Labor’s modest yet decisive lead.

The Australian brings us a second Newspoll in consecutive weeks, perhaps portending weekly results from now to the election. It shows no change from last week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead, but both major parties are up on the primary vote – Labor by two and the Coalition by one, leaving them tied on 39%. The Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are, interestingly, down two to 4%. All we are told of the leaders’ ratings at this stage is that they are “virtually unchanged”. Scott Morrison is unchanged on 45% approval and up one to 44% disapproval; Bill Shorten is unchanged on both measures, at 37% and 51%; and preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged, at 46-35 in favour of Morrison. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. BK @ #856 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 7:08 pm

    Oh dear!
    A recording of comments made by the Liberal candidate for the Victorian seat of Chisholm appearing to describe LGBTI issues as “ridiculous rubbish” has emerged after she claimed yesterday that stories about it were “fake news” and not representative of her own views.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-15/chisholm-candidates-comments-on-same-sex-marriage-released/11004596

    Gladys Yiu will struggle big time on social issues!

  2. The right have been saying the Greens are dying for decades. Don’t let the fact that we’ve got more elected representatives than ever before get in the way of your fantasies, will you.

    At the last election (2016 fed), the Greens increased their primary vote by an extra 300,000+ and received the second highest swing of any party in the House of Reps (behind only Xenophon, who’s vote was pretty much all confined SA). We’re doing just fine, don’t you worry about that.

  3. Bushfire Bill says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 6:31 pm

    Rob Gibbs, leukemia sufferer, has a go at Shorten because he doesn’t like politicians.

    And this is front page material? An “unscripted moment”, in a campaign that (the journalists claims) had so far gone off like clockwork?

    Did Bill Shorten promise a cure for cancer? Did he put out a policy that ensures cancer sufferers receive miracle cures? That they don’t suffer?

    I don’t think so.

    If it had been Morrison the journalist would never have seen it.

    They would still be on the bus.

  4. I’ve just had a memory of a frighteningly exhilarating sight of a swordfish effortlessly swerving and gliding itself toward me while snorkeling among the coral on and about a small island north of New Guinea. It fortunately swam away from me.
    They are graceful and swift, neither of which will be apparent in the weeks before election day.

  5. Guytaur “Its part of the reason I think those “safe” seats are in danger. It woke the “moderate” Liberals up as well.”

    I’m worried that we’ll see massive swings in “Liberal” seats that are too safe to change, while marginal Coalition seats, especially those in McMansion country, will swing little or not at all.

  6. Apparently there is another candidate’s forum in Warringah tonight on climate change. I have no idea if it’s being streamed live.

  7. I had a day of from campaigning today. My wife for some reason thinks a broken toilet seat is more important. It gave me a chance to ponder the feel of the campaign. I have puzzled over it for a few weeks. The best comparison I can make is the 2015 Qld election where the voters had made up their minds very early but it only became obvious late in the campaign . The early impressions was of disinterest. They had made up minds and just wanted to vote. The campaign was of no relevance to them.

  8. 777

    Not if that GetUp polling of Warringah is confirmed at election time.

    Plus the ABC story outlining the vulnerability in Victoria today.

    The Victorian election happened with the polling nationally being roughly where it is today.

  9. Make fun of me, it’s ok.
    Maybe I should try….our great Labor party will win 25 seats in a landslide Scotty Morrison is a creepy liar and everyone thinks so…!!

    Nah, too Wayney…?
    I’ll go with Jericho’s political instincts.

  10. guytaur says Monday, April 15, 2019 at 6:33 pm

    If you are not a subscriber don’t use outline for this. Subscribe. They have a weekly rate. So you can subscribe for the election period and unsubscribe later if you like.

    This is a good read IMO.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/04/15/warringah-fight-tony-abbott/

    ($)

    Didn’t Poll Bludger once have a group subscription rate for Crikey?

    I have been using the Club Troppo group rate. I need to renew, and I think it’s on again, but I’m not sure of the price (or the process right now). More information at: http://clubtroppo.com.au/2019/03/27/crikey-group-sub-its-on-again/

  11. C@tMomma,

    You must have been over the moon, lol, last week to see those fine Australian astrophysicists and Mathematicians who made such outstanding contributions to locating and getting the world’s first photo of a black hole!

    It was a really great result, and now that we know what to look for, probably the first of many such discoveries, as more sensitive equipment is purpose built. Also a great result for radio astronomy (Take that, you Judean People’s front optical astronomers).

    Although, the other (non-astro) physicists at work were not amused about us sending out owls on the interweb thingy about the great discovery. They told us to cease and desist, because it was obviously just a photo of a Donut King donut, and if we had to send such owls, could we please only send them to other astrophysicists.

    The argument gave me my best laugh of the day – black hole photographed and most of the physicists say “Shut up and stop boring us”.

  12. Bernard Keane in today’s Crikey email.

    In fact, the sticky quality of the polls around a 4-6 point lead for Labor in two party preference terms suggests minds made up and baseball bats at the ready. Even so, victory is still achievable for the Coalition — it has never been as terminal as both its critics and even some supporters have claimed. But it is in the difficult position of needing to win seats to survive, making the task a tough one even for a party on top of its game.

    After Peter Dutton’s latest display of poor judgment in attacking his Labor opponent over her disability, Scott Morrison’s “ni hao” gaffe and Treasury having to admit it hadn’t costed Labor’s tax policies last week, “top of its game” isn’t a description you’d bandy around too readily at the moment.

    A self-created problem for the Coalition is that the campaign will grind to a virtual halt on Thursday evening while the nation enters an Easter break that is, for many voters, likely to extend through to April 29. For a party that needs to shift the polls, the break will be an unwelcome one, even though the government opted to go for May 18 rather than May 11 to give itself an extra week.

    And then there are the people pre-polling when pre-polling opens on April 29. I think the key point is that while previous coalition govts have been in similar polling positions going into an election campaign, they’ve never had the seat tally this mob currently does – effectively starting from behind he eight ball.

  13. Peter Stanton @ #869 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 7:20 pm

    I had a day of from campaigning today. My wife for some reason thinks a broken toilet seat is more important. It gave me a chance to ponder the feel of the campaign. I have puzzled over it for a few weeks. The best comparison I can make is the 2015 Qld election where the voters had made up their minds very early but it only became obvious late in the campaign . The early impressions was of disinterest. They had made up minds and just wanted to vote. The campaign was of no relevance to them.

    There’s a strong who is Scott Morrison and why does he call himself PM feel about proceedings thus far.

    Like you, I doubt the campaign is going to make much difference.

    Voters are locked and loaded and want it over with.

    The mood might change after Easter and Anzac Day. But, I wouldn’t bet on it.

  14. Wayne says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 7:22 pm

    Wayne,
    I happen to own a bridge that crosses the Mississippi from Texas to Oklahoma. I am desperate for some cash and can offer it at a good price. Would you be interested?

  15. 7.3o report on Dickson manages to find Dutton supporters and a person who hates Bill Shorten because he is apparently too arrogant.
    Another guy who says that we’re in surplus and Labor just want to spend all our money.

  16. the sticky quality of the polls around a 4-6 point lead for Labor in two party preference terms

    I don’t want to promote PB’s sense of unease tonight, (I like Pater Stanton’s perspective on the mood) but it’s good to remember this is a zero-sum game. The winner needs 50% plus 1. Ahead/behind calculations should be wrt 50%. (I realize that doesn’t account for the fact that you need to win seats, but neither does the idea of a “4-6 point lead.”)

  17. “You finally admit that the coalition are going to win the election on May 18”

    I’m saying there’s no room for complacency. 52-48 is not a big lead,especially when the money (and those who control it) are 95-5 against change.

    If the Coalition wins again, it will prove that lies work and we can expect much more of the same in future years.

  18. Yep, that Captain GetUp! stuff is just strange. What is the big deal with the whole Australia day thing? It is not something many people are going to die in a ditch for. Especially in Victoria, where the day was on a Monday at the end of January until 1994.
    As for the whole thing about the ALP candidate being a woman, what’s that got to do with the price of fish?

  19. If the Coalition wins again, it will prove that lies work and we can expect much more of the same in future years.

    Glass half full thoughts?

  20. Pity it wasn’t Trump at Mar El Lago

    “A Florida man was killed on Friday, Florida time, by a cassowary – the enormous, flightless bird native to Queensland.

    He raised the animal on his farm, along with other exotic birds, authorities said”

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/north-america/florida-man-killed-by-cassowary-he-kept-on-his-farm-20190415-p51ea7.html

    My Grandad used to see these great birds well south of Townsville during the war. Now sadly pushed further North.

  21. adrian @ #881 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 5:39 pm

    7.3o report on Dickson manages to find Dutton supporters and a person who hates Bill Shorten because he is apparently too arrogant.
    Another guy who says that we’re in surplus and Labor just want to spend all our money.

    Yes they didn’t search too hard for middle of the road voters. The first woman was a volunteer of the local surf club which received $200K in federal funding thanks to Dutton’s intervention !

  22. subgeometer

    Well, yes exactly. A UBI means most people will receive a UBI on the one hand and pay more tax on the other. Why bother? Because deciding who is to pay how much tax is generally more efficient, fairer and a lot less stigmatising than deciding who is to receive welfare on the other end of the system.

    One thing Nicholas has never come to terms with is how to implement a Jobs Guarantee in a way that isn’t just another work for the dole scheme – which is exactly what it would become without a big shift in culture.

    He talks about 1 or 2% unemployment. But among those 1 or 2% or people who are marginalised and despite what Nicholas thinks, would remain stigmatised and left out of society. He even had the stupidity to think (and say) that somehow you invent jobs for even these people. Conjurs up images of work houses. Unless of course you want a big public service properly case-managing literally everyone. A UBI is vastly more efficient. Take away the stigma and people will naturally find themselves meaningful (and often socially useful) things to do. His problem is that he just doesn’t understand real people.

  23. “The first woman was a volunteer of the local surf club which received $200K in federal funding thanks to Dutton’s intervention !”

    Dickson is landlocked.

  24. Douglas and Milko

    A fantastic achievement for the world of radio-astronomy (and mathematics!, and computing)

    I just had to laugh that the first picture of a black hole is released just as Morrison is calling an election.

    I am looking forward to a similar denoument regarding the Milky Way’s black hole.

    I have read that our Milky Way has never been ‘officially’ named, that the name just sort of evolved?

  25. Late Riser:

    I think people just think it’s time for change. Evidently the LNP feel the same based on all those retirements we’ve seen this year. I’m sure if Pyne felt he could shore up more of his superannuation at a minister’s salary level he’d have stuck around for another term.

  26. Steve777 @ #890 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 5:48 pm

    “The first woman was a volunteer of the local surf club which received $200K in federal funding thanks to Dutton’s intervention !”

    Dickson is landlocked.

    730 profiled a local surf club in his electorate that had received $200K in federal funding thanks to Dutton’s intervention.

  27. Adam Brandt is right when he says

    This election, conservatives, your hate reign ends.

    What the greens and their supporters need to do is go after the libs/nats in Libs/nats electorate it is no good debating or fighting with Labor and Labor supporters

  28. Confessions @ #893 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 7:51 pm

    Steve777 @ #890 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 5:48 pm

    “The first woman was a volunteer of the local surf club which received $200K in federal funding thanks to Dutton’s intervention !”

    Dickson is landlocked.

    730 profiled a local surf club in his electorate that had received $200K in federal funding thanks to Dutton’s intervention.

    rowing club
    skinny boats, not proper surf boats 🙂

  29. ‘Another guy who says that we’re in surplus and Labor just want to spend all our money.’

    Yep, I know someone like that.
    And since no one has bothered to explain that there is no surplus, or at least tried, it’s really too late now.

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