The Australian brings us a second Newspoll in consecutive weeks, perhaps portending weekly results from now to the election. It shows no change from last week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead, but both major parties are up on the primary vote – Labor by two and the Coalition by one, leaving them tied on 39%. The Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are, interestingly, down two to 4%. All we are told of the leaders’ ratings at this stage is that they are “virtually unchanged”. Scott Morrison is unchanged on 45% approval and up one to 44% disapproval; Bill Shorten is unchanged on both measures, at 37% and 51%; and preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged, at 46-35 in favour of Morrison. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.
The libs/nats combined primary vote seems to be stuck around 38%,if this is repeated on election day it will be a short night.
Labor will be announced as the new government around 7.30 pm
Well said this from Shorto:
“And I have to say this: if you are getting a tax credit when you haven’t paid any income tax, this is a gift. […] It is a gift lifted from the taxes paid by working class and middle class people in Australia today.”
https://theconversation.com/labor-maintains-52-48-lead-in-newspoll-as-vote-polarises-115436
The next five weeks will be a contorted smorgasbord of many exotic political thoughts and ideas.
The Darling River is dying of thirst. If words were water!
jenauthor @ 11:03:
“Greens are forever banging on the door and wailing to be heard.
If they were part of the left faction within Labor they’d achieve a whole lot more and we’d all be spared the coalition forever!”
We tried that. It didn’t work. I’d suggest confidently that a vast number of Greens members are what used to be the Labor left. But since Labor has moved so far to the right there is no credible “left” position in the ALP anymore. Hence, the Greens.
We could just as easily flip your argument:
“Labor is forever banging on about the Greens encroaching on their territory. Perhaps if Labor had credible and consistent positions on climate change and social policy they’d achieve a lot more and and we’d all be spared the coalition forever!”
If One Nation support collapses by election day, there is a chance either Palmer’s United Australia Party and perhaps Fraser Anning to win a Senate seat in Queensland on One Nation preferences.
Good on you Firefox, for demolishing the many untruths that get told on this site by RW Labor supporters. I was from a generational Labor voting family (local branch meetings sometimes in our lounge room) and stopped voting Labor for similar reasons, although I always felt relatively well disposed to the ALP and still have many friends who are in the ALP (and whose behaviour is nothing like that of the RW zealots on PB). Based on that behaviour, I feel I don’t want to reward the ALP in any form and aim to withhold preferences from them in the Senate.
‘Modest yet decisive’. Perfect description of Bill Shorten. 🙂
Newspoll
TPP ALP 52 (0) L/NP 48 (0)
Primaries L/NP 39 (+1) ALP 39 (+2) GRN 9 (0) ON 4 (-2) OTH 9 (-1)
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/one-nations-voter-slip-gives-a-lift-to-both-major-parties/news-story/779ae6396110521a51d200b6d6f428cb
And, as a result of their Extreme Left puritanism The Greens are surging in the polls.
Not. 🙂
How do you figure that Tristo? What votes do you imagine each of those groupings attracting?
Tristo @ #205 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 5:41 am
To be completely ignored by Labor in favour of Centre Alliance, Tim Storer(hopefully again), The Greens (if they behave themselves and act like adults), and Derryn Hinch.
Hopefully Jacquie Lambie as well because, despite despising some of her positions, on other things she is well-attuned to what the electorate wants and can be reasoned with like an adult.
Just look at the recent NSW Upper House election. Labor have gained as many seats as the Liberals, most likely (the button gets pushed today). Even though the Coalition won the election. So people are willing to discriminate between Upper and Lower Houses and put in who they think will do the best job. The electorate always gets it right.
Also, by the looks of the latest Newspoll, One Nation support has gone to the Coalition or Labor, not the Others.
People keep claiming that Labor have moved to the right but they seem slightly more to the left than either the Rudd/Gillard or Hawke/Keating Labor Party to me at the moment. The realities of Government will probably change that of course but that’s the price of attracting 35+% of the popular vote instead of 10+%.
In any event given the actual choice for government is not between Labor and the Greens it’s a side argument which appears to take up a lot of time.
Vic @ #162 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 12:19 am
The Shy Labor Voter Effect? 🙂
ltep @ #212 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 6:34 am
As richard denniss pointed out, Shorten is standing on the most progressive political platform since Gough. No other labor leader has taken what are effectively tax increases to the electorate.
In any event given the actual choice for government is not between Labor and the Greens it’s a side argument which appears to take up a lot of time.
And why is this? It’s because The Greens have an unfounded view that their battles can be won on social media. So they flood sites like this (and because no one but them ever goes to New Matilda or Eureka Street 😆 ) and they have this zealous religious belief that their message will permeate throughout the electorate via this site. So they pitch their tent here and lob spit balls at us Labor types all day, every day.
While Labor gets on with the hard slog of actual campaigning.
I mean, has anyone ever had a phone call or a door knock from a Greens canvasser at election time?
They can barely get enough volunteers to man the booths at Pre Poll or on Election Day.
They are political pipsqueaks. And should be treated as such. In proportion with their actual ability to influence political events. Albeit, courteously.
The Daily ToiletPaper is trying to wring the last drop out of the EV issue – now going the envy angle..
Have they not got the memo from Scotty to drop this albatross?
Libs/nats need a combined primary vote of 42.5% just to retain the 72/73 seats they hold , the primary vote needs to be around the 2013 federal election of 45.6% for the libs/nats to retain majority government
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
The Australian’s Simon Benson writes that Pauline Hanson’s support has crashed, handing Scott Morrison the equal-best primary vote for the Coalition since just after the last election but also strengthening Labor’s lead.
https://www.outline.com/p6WZkw
Scott Morrison wants the Coalition re-elected because of its superior management of the economy. Why? He has to keep saying it because it ain’t true, says Ross Gittins. He concludes that it’s time Treasury and the Reserve stopped kidding themselves – and us.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/strong-economy-no-but-maybe-it-will-be-eighth-time-lucky-20190414-p51dy6.html
Greg Jericho says lies aren’t new to election campaigns, but now they are more brazen than ever!
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/apr/13/lies-arent-new-to-election-campaigns-but-now-they-are-more-brazen-than-ever
And Shane Wright reports that economic forecasts from Deloitte Access Economics point to budget problems that may curtail expensive vote-winning policies.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/falling-house-prices-threaten-tax-cuts-or-surplus-as-australia-s-economy-softens-20190414-p51e34.html
With property prices shaping up as a key election talking point, the Coalition and Labor continue to trade barbs over the Opposition’s planned changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount. While the Coalition claims that Labor’s proposed changes could undermine confidence in the property market and lead to further falls in housing prices, the reality is by some metrics, property prices have already fallen by over $400,000 in some suburbs.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/the-unpredictable-fall-of-housing-prices,12563
Bill Shorten has doubled down on plans to end cash refunds for excess franking credits, saying the election was a choice between funding such “gifts” and better health care.
https://www.outline.com/jP8Bc5
Voters are being promised a spending surge on hospitals over the next five weeks in an election bidding war that has sparked fears of political deals to favour marginal electorates while neglecting those in safe seats.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/announcements-coming-out-of-the-blue-hospital-bidding-war-sparks-warnings-20190414-p51e1o.html
There are a number of media no-go zones for Morrison. Q and A is one of them.
https://www.outline.com/Pt6MHZ
Stephen Brook explains what makes talkback radio tick when it comes to politics.
https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/what-really-matters-to-listeners-in-radio-talkback-land-20190414-p51e0h.html
The pressing moral issue of poverty sits outside the major parties’ carefully-tested election messages. Guardian Australia’s Lenore Taylor believes it’s too important to be sidelined
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/15/left-behind-the-australians-neither-political-party-wants-to-discuss
Gabrielle Chan writes that Shorten has appealed directly to Labor supporters to have conversations with fellow Australians about the party’s policies, laughing off “angry ranting” headlines in the Australian newspaper.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/14/australian-election-2019-shorten-laughs-off-angry-headlines-with-direct-appeal
Sean Kelly gives an insight into the machinations of an election campaign.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/dutton-derailed-his-party-early-but-there-are-more-disasters-ahead-20190414-p51dy4.html
The AFR says Shorten’s women strategy has been on show as the campaign got rolling.
https://www.outline.com/UaJ4Kg
And it says rookie errors by three top Liberal politicians show why Bill Shorten is winning the election campaign.
https://www.outline.com/pLMPMM
Jacqui Maley wonders if Captain GetUp is a help or a hindrance to Tony Abbott.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/is-captain-getup-a-help-or-a-hindrance-to-tony-abbott-20190412-p51dml.html
Are corporations profiteering from water licences with the help of politicians? Academic researcher, Triskele, continues the investigation into why scientific evidence was ignored in the #MurrayDarling catastrophe. In this instalment, Triskele focusses on Barnaby Joyce’s role as Water Minister in demonising open tender water buybacks while overseeing controversial “strategic purchases” from Big Cotton, Tandou being a case in point.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/tandou-can-do-double-standards-in-water-purchases-in-the-murray-darling-basin/
Jordan Baker says that Childcare workers are worried about a huge drop in the number of vulnerable families claiming subsidies for the cost of care, fearing red tape and tougher eligibility criteria are forcing them to withdraw their kids.
https://www.smh.com.au/education/really-worried-big-drop-in-vulnerable-families-using-child-care-20190412-p51dlu.html
David Crowe tells us that a flood of money has lifted activist group GetUp to a new peak of $12.5 million in annual donations as it puts pressure on election candidates to declare their policy positions in order to gain its support on polling day. It’s task is to remove the hard right.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/our-approach-is-to-remove-the-hard-right-getup-raises-12m-in-effort-to-oust-conservatives-20190414-p51e3c.html
Professor Mark Triffitt writes about ‘Fairness’ versus ‘strength’ – the battle to frame the federal election.
https://theconversation.com/fairness-versus-strength-the-battle-to-frame-the-federal-election-115296
The SMH editorial reckons Assange was reckless but that might not be a crime.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/assange-was-reckless-but-that-might-not-be-a-crime-20190414-p51dzu.html
Gillian Triggs and Julian Burnside tell us why Australia needs stronger laws to deal with hate speech.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-needs-stronger-laws-to-deal-with-hate-speech-20190412-p51dn1.html
In this speech given at the Palm Sunday Rally for Refugees, Richard Flanagan says we are better than our politicians’ dark fears
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/14/have-we-australia-become-a-country-that-breeds-mass-murderers-with-our-words
Three dozen journalists and publishers are to face court today over their coverage of Cardinal George Pell’s trial for child sex abuse, with prosecutors seeking fines and jail terms over accusations of breached gag orders in the case.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/14/george-pell-trial-journalists-and-publishers-face-court-over-coverage
Andrew Brown reports that billions of doses of illegal opioids are available to Australians every day on the dark web, a new report has found. The Australian National University study uncovered “alarming” levels of synthetic drugs, some strong enough to sedate elephants.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6039997/billions-of-illegal-opioid-doses-available-on-dark-web-every-day/?cs=14225
ASIC’s Wealth Management Project is focused upon the financial advice businesses of the big six: ANZ, Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank, Westpac, Macquarie and AMP. In March, ASIC told parliament that about 20 of the matters under investigation involved potential criminal offences.
https://www.outline.com/vWe8Sg
Adele Ferguson says that ss both parties go into the election campaign, the key difference is the Coalition sees the royal commission as the end process of bank reform, while Labor sees it as the beginning.
https://www.outline.com/j4gah7
Victorian firefighters have called for laws to jail, fine and sue operators responsible for illicitly stockpiling toxic chemical waste that cause industrial fires amid fears they are ‘death traps’.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/firefighters-demand-crackdown-on-toxic-dump-death-traps-20190414-p51e1v.html
Why a quality curriculum is essential to Australian schools.
https://www.smh.com.au/education/a-quality-curriculum-is-essential-to-australian-schools-20190412-p51doo.html
Peter FitzSimons recounts his time as a boarder at Knox Grammar when a lot of abuse was happening.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/tough-men-and-tight-ships-hid-an-awful-truth-at-knox-20190412-p51dqv.html
I think Falau needs a bit of help.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-union/i-m-more-than-happy-to-do-what-he-wants-me-to-do-unrepentant-folau-20190414-p51dyw.html
Professor Greg Callaghan explains that it would be wrong to see Borneo, a small country of 400,00 people, as some kind of homophobic exception in a world of rising tolerance for LGBT people. On the contrary, outside the Western world, the outlook for sexual minorities appears to be growing grimmer, especially so in Muslim majority countries.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/so-wrong-to-see-brunei-s-anti-gay-laws-as-an-exception-to-the-rule-20190413-p51dw6.html
Former pilot Norm Sanders weighs in on why there’s been a spate of recent aeroplane tragedies. He says questions are now being raised about the integrity of the U.S. aviation regulatory system itself.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/boeing-planes-whats-gone-wrong,12561
Meanwhile American Airlines, the world’s largest airline, has extended its grounding of the Boeing 737 Max aircraft from early June until mid-August, resulting in the cancellation of 115 flights a day.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2019/04/15/american-airlines-max-flights/
There are a lot involved in this nomination for “Arseholes of the Week”.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/police-investigate-extortion-attempts-after-love-machine-shooting-20190414-p51e2c.html
Cartoon Corner
As usual there is plenty to see in David Rowe’s latest.
Pat Campbell and the horror of election campaigns.
From Matt Golding.
Jim Pavlidis.
Zanetti’s been pulled back into line.
Johannes Leak with some Greens bile.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/73e559ab505940090eced4eccca4978d?width=1024
From the US
I see the significance of this newspoll as a suggestion that initial momentum is going to Labor, +2 on primary is very good for one week, but probably some noise.
Libs +1 comes on the back a (edit) 2 point drop from PHON, so LNP protest voters coming back isnt going to change the 2PP.
Trend is most important early on as non-political junkies start to tune in.
“Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”….
Last Newspoll before Turnbull was “assassinated”: 51-49 to Labor…
Going backwards with Morrison… heading for a historical trashing….
max
Based on that behaviour, I feel I don’t want to reward the ALP in any form and aim to withhold preferences from them in the Senate.
_______________________________________
That would pretty much confirm the complaints about the Greens on PB.
TPOF @ #221 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 7:33 am
That they are unreliable, disingenous and capricious?
max
‘..although I always felt relatively well disposed to the ALP and still have many friends who are in the ALP (and whose behaviour is nothing like that of the RW zealots on PB). ‘
Ironically, I can say exactly this, swapping ALP and the Greens around. I’ve had Christmas cards (!) from Greens candidates and have family members who are active Greens members. I’ve gatecrashed Greens events and had a rockstar reception. I’ve had a determining say in HTV allocations and have had huge arguments in the past with HO when they’ve wanted to put Greens lower than second.*
Certainly, no Green who knows me personally would describe me as a RW zealot (Vote Compass, for wiw, has me firmly between Greens and Labor; within Labor, I’ve been told frequently I’m ‘too green’).
But the behaviour of some Greens posters here is so extremely partisan that they do their party a disservice.
*Meanwhile, the local Greens encouraged an open ticket, because, of course, there was absolutely no difference between myself and Sophie Mirabella.
Or even basic comprehension skills?
Seems Canavan is contemplating whole onion eating to boost his popularity.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1117170594318041089
By abusing Labor supporters on PB and calling them, ‘RW zealots’, The Greens partisans on PB are doing themselves no favours.
It’s a dead end up a dry gully, guys. Give it a rest.
Thanks BK. Good start to the day, as always!
The article about school curricula is written by two people from an educational materials company called Learning First.
More subtle than an advertorial, but it does repeat some of the stuff on their website.
NSW curricula are written via an exhaustive process involving extensive consultation. I imagine other states do the same.
Not perfect, but not too bad.
( except, of course, for the disastrous senior school science curricula written in the late 90’s, which have finally been retired).
The ABC has become a joke organisation. I think a new Labor government should absorb it into an expanded SBS, and get rid of highly paid hacks like Sales, Jones, Kelly and Trioli. It should save us a few hundred million.
@MarionGroves
A desperate attempt to discredit Labor by @ABCnews. Newspoll is owned jointly by Newscorp and YouGov, which was founded by British conservative politicians. Where’s the fuss about their political connections?
“A major opinion polling company used by GetUp!, Greenpeace, The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age and some political candidates is co-owned by union heavyweights the CFMMEU and the ACTU, an ABC investigation has discovered”
Morning all
Thanks BK for today’s reports!
Tonight’s Qanda.
I see this poll as a “Business as Usual” result. Nothing much seems to have changed. My guess is that Labor’s TPP is fluctuating between 52.3 to 52.8% which explains the rounding up and down to 52 or 53%.
Sure the Libs had a shocker of a start with the Dutton fiasco and other matters that may not have been in play while this poll was collected. (Zalli Steggall, EVs). But, these things will wash through and be history within a week or so.
However, people seem to be sanguine at the moment with many focussed on Easter and Anzac Days holidays. My wife has a full 10 day break and is only interested on re-mulching and re-planting our garden. I’d expect things to liven up as we move in to May. But, with the Libs focussed on Tax, the surplus and strong Economy, it’s going to be somewhat tedious imho.
At this stage I’d say Labor is in front comfortably and really just need to maintain the slow and steady tactics that have served them well. The conservative Independents are continuing to drain the Libs of cash and human resources for other battles. One Nation’s vote seems to be evaporating post Christchurch. The Greens must be struggling if the level of hysteria on PB can be used as a gauge.
I suspect it will a long 33 days.
That always puts my back up. It shouldn’t, I suppose, because I’m not a member of Labor, but any time people are lumped into categories makes me cross.
“Greens posters here are too partisan”. Said seriously presumably.
Tell that to Briefly, BW etc. This is not an ALP run blog.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BwP-kUNJsus/
Good Morning.
Zoomster.
Pot Kettle Black.
As I put it last night. I put it down to scapegoating the Greens over time not available for Climate Legislation to take effect.
It was Labor infighting as to why Abbott was able to win. Gillard surprised us all with “You can call it a Carbon Tax”. A mistake she may not have made if internal party division had not occupied so much Labor time.
We will never know. All the complaints here are about the Greens staying true to the policies Labor knew the Greens had all along. Fact. Like it or not the Greens always had Onshore Processing for refugees as their policy. Yet Labor blames the Greens for standing by that policy. When it was LNP votes you needed.
The problem is on both Climate Change and Asylum Seekers Labor forgot this simple maxim. Never Trust a Tory.
The Nationals not putting One Nation last on the HTV will become a bigger issue, in particular in areas of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. Any hope that the LNP will benefit from Daley comments will blown away when the HTV cards become an issue.
Meanwhile a historic moment for the US.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/more-than-a-little-bold-gay-mayor-pete-joins-us-presidential-race-20190415-p51e5q.html
‘Zoomster.
Pot Kettle Black.’
Um, yeah, guytaur – that was exactly my point.
Thanks once again BK for an excellent Dawn Patrol.
I expect that FTA TV will be showing the old standbys once again.
The Dam Busters yesterday.
The Battle of Britain coming attraction
and so on.
Perfectly fine with with me – I don’t see such movies as glorifying war.
Great day for gardening and mowing in Newcastle – clear blue sky and temperature currently 18℃ projected to reach 23℃
☕
Lovey
So why is it OK for the Greens to say Labor posters are partisan and it’s not OK for Labor supporters to say the Greens are too partisan?
Both can be true.
Firefox @ #150 Sunday, April 14th, 2019 – 11:58 pm
Greens oppose normal civility of meeting a major foreign business figure and shaking hands.
lizzie says:
Monday, April 15, 2019 at 7:57 am
😆
This doesn’t just highlight the Liberal’s women problems, it highlights their overall lack of talent in comparison to Labor’s team.
I’m seeing the light at end of the tunnel which makes me think bill shorten will be our PM and the coalition will be gone
Am liking Buttgieg the more I see of him. I hope he does well in the primaries.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/04/14/challenge-that-comes-with-top-tier-status/?utm_term=.35ffad3d28b6
““Following the second defeat of the legislation on December 2, Senators Brown and Milne again wrote to the Prime Minister and Minister Wong requesting negotiations to seek a way forward. Another letter was sent on December 22 following the Copenhagen conference. The Prime Minister again replied on January 7 2010 that any negotiations must occur with Minister Wong. There has been no response from Minister Wong as at January 13, but she closed 2009 telling the media that she would not negotiate with the Greens.””
Reading this, and all your Greens threats about holding Labor to ransom from outside the party I am reminded of how glad I am and how fortunate Labor is that you and your ilk are not Labor.
The fact was that before and after the prospect of a ALP-LNP over an ETS broke down the Greens simply lacked the numbers to assist Labor pass legislation in that parliament. When Brown and Milne fronted up with their list of demands two things were crystal clear: 1. The Greens were more interested in punishment than progress, and 2. they didn’t have the ability to bring anyone else from the cross bench with them. That’s why Labor chose to negotiate with the LNP (plus an ETS was Liberal party policy).
It’s fine for the Greens to set itself up as a protest party when they lack the numbers to affect change. They don’t have to take responsibility for their actions.
However, things changed in the aftermath of the liberal leadshit when Liberal two senators indicated they would cross the floor and vote for the CRPS that the liberals had negotiated with Labor: at that point the Greens blew it: Labor + Greens + Liberal rebels = CRPS enacted.
It also would have equalled Abbott’s leadership being likley rendered still born and the worst of the last 10 years in Australian politics likely avoided.
The irony is that by the time Combet worked out the floating price mechanism based on the EU scheme the essence of the Gillard-Greens deal would have broadly equated the CRPS outcome.
The difference between a party dedicated to public progress and the Greens is that the former will always accept a deal that advances a policy agenda (even if it falls short of the ideal), especially if future reforms remain possible.
A pox on the Greens: they will have real world decisions to make in a few months time. Labor won’t be held to ransom and will crush them in the following DD if they pull their political terrorist stunts again.
max says:
Monday, April 15, 2019 at 6:13 am
Good on you Firefox, for demolishing the many untruths that get told on this site by RW Labor supporters. I….stopped voting Labor for similar reasons….I don’t want to reward the ALP in any form
In their own words, and by their own deeds, the Gs demonstrate again they are an anti-Labor clique.
Zoomster
It takes two to tango. Yet from the comments you would think it’s just Green supporting posters who were being unreasonable.
All those ignoring long standing Greens policy and blaming the Greens for the Malaysia Solution failure and the Climate Legislation failure are the ones being unreasonable.
On the Second we get the Greens are so pure line wanting the perfect instead of the good. Yet the Greens when Labor negotiated with them did compromise. In fact the compromise was also good enough for conservative Independent members.
Green is not a label you can call Windsor or Oakshott.
Malcolm Roberts on Q&A?
Is the ABC serious?
Excellent news on ON. The retreat from the anti-hero parties is a very healthy sign for democracy and for egalitarian, inclusive politics.
Andrew Earlwood and Briefly chime in on cue to prove my point.