The Australian brings us a second Newspoll in consecutive weeks, perhaps portending weekly results from now to the election. It shows no change from last week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead, but both major parties are up on the primary vote – Labor by two and the Coalition by one, leaving them tied on 39%. The Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are, interestingly, down two to 4%. All we are told of the leaders’ ratings at this stage is that they are “virtually unchanged”. Scott Morrison is unchanged on 45% approval and up one to 44% disapproval; Bill Shorten is unchanged on both measures, at 37% and 51%; and preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged, at 46-35 in favour of Morrison. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.
Libs rarely come to this site because they cannot mount a decent argument against Labor policies. Basically they’re just selfish bastards.
I’ve added the Newspoll results to BludgerTrack — which, I’m pleased to report, should now be cured of the glitch that was preventing the state breakdowns tabs from firing much of the time. Two-party preferred and the seat projection are all but unchanged, but there’s an interesting uptick in Scott Morrison’s net approval trend, for whatever reason.
https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019
Steve – elections are rarely crushing. However deserved.
Seeing Labor with a strong and growing primary is positive. Obviously, a big win is the best outcome, but if I can’t get that, I’ll take any win… honestly.
“Been watching SBS all night and have seen a Coalition ad every break…not one ALP ad yet”
During “Criminal Minds” I saw one Labor ad (featuring Bill Shorten) and a UAP ad (featuring Clive Palmer).
Clive Palmer is probably going after ‘low information’ voters.
Steve
Look at the primary. Also remember Victoria.
It’s by no means a walk over for Labor. There is no need for panic however. That’s all in the Minority Government LNP camp.
William: “Two-party preferred and the seat projection are all but changed”
All but UNchanged?
Even Rudd only managed a 52.7% result with all his popularity in 2007.
Guytaur, has it ever occurred to you that people of Green persuasion would do much better if they worked for their reforms from within the ALP than the position they’re in now?
Greens are forever banging on the door and wailing to be heard.
If they were part of the left faction within Labor they’d achieve a whole lot more and we’d all be spared the coalition forever!
“Depends on what she wants to achieve in politics. She definitely belongs in the Greens if she wants to achieve 100% of fuck-all. Otherwise, she is far more likely to achieve far more if she stays where she is. I suspect that she has calculated all this very carefully and come to the same conclusion.
As for marriage equality, gay people, like straight people, are more than their sexuality and resist being defined by it. LGBTQI people are across the whole spectrum and their whole fight is to not be typecast as belonging in some political party or the other because that party is more positive about their sexuality when the broader values of the party is what attracts them.”
Yeah, I’m sure Wong just loved being bound by Labor to vote against marriage equality all those times the Greens tried to introduce legislation to pass it. That must have made her feel so included and respected by her party.
Now that was actually sarcasm, by the way, just incase you missed it.
Let’s see now…
Marriage equality, negative gearing, federal ICAC, banking royal commission, half of their EV policy, the carbon price, pill testing (maybe? In the ACT anyway), medical marijuana, etc… And that’s just what I can remember off the top of my head. All long held Greens’ policies which they’ve eventually forced Labor to adopt. Without the Greens, Labor would still be back in the dark ages with the Coalition.
Ha, ha have to laugh at John the Tory, complains about the removal of his franking credits, eg bludging off the government and then complains about Labor’s socialism, all in the same breath.
“Even Rudd only managed a 52.7% result with all his popularity in 2007.”
And that’s why I’m worried. Labor is better at polls than actual elections.
Steve777
Polls were pretty rusted on 8 weeks before, last campaign. I think there is less volatility nowadays than years previous.
I’m not starting an argument with you… while these weren’t always official policy. The Greens aren’t the only people who agree or believed in those policies.
I’ve been back as an active member of the ALP for six years and as someone who agrees with the Greens broadly on quite a few issues, even if I disagree with particular policy prescriptions, I get the odd feeling that you’ve also misconstrued formal party policy – which is painfully developed and negotiated and prone to inertia, to the positions of the membership and the policy debates that take place within.
Also – Steve, Morrison is no Howard. Murdoch rags or not.
Hopefully there is a single seat poll for the seat of Melbourne released shortly.
“If they were part of the left faction within Labor they’d achieve a whole lot more and we’d all be spared the coalition forever!”
The only reliable way to make Labor listen and adopt progressive policies is by taking votes off them. Otherwise the Labor Right faction just dictate the party line and the Labor Left just have to cop it whether they like it or not. Exhibit A: the innocent asylum seekers locked up on remote islands that the Labor Right is more than happy to sell out for votes.
Hypothetical question for William:
Do you suppose ON will actually poll around 5% or is it likely, given they polled 1.5% in 2016, they are likely to poll much below the current projection from Bludgertrack.
IF the prefs flow about 50/50 again, and they drop about 3-4% primary on the Bludgertrack, would those primaries go back to the majors or likely be channeled to other “others”.
Reason I asked is if they came back as primaries – it would get Labor (well both) up to around 40% primaries???
Ok so I’m rich. Who should I vote for.
Henry, it depends on who owns your soul.
Looking good for Greens in Melbourne Greens $1.12 Labor $5.50
BludgerTrack currently has Labor’s TPP at 52.5. If the trend in it which has been evident since early December 2018 continues to May 18, it will be about 52.0. Enough for a Labor win with about 80 seats. Not bad for a 2-term Labor Opposition, when you compare it to Beazley’s result in 2001, or Hayden’s in 1980, or Evatt’s in 1954. Bill Shorten will have done a very good job in historical terms.
It will take something substantial to get the Coalition vote anywhere near victory. I don’t see it happening. I will be satisfied with a comfortable Labor win. Sadly I think Abbott will survive which is good for Labor but not so much for the Coalition.
Firefox @ #115 Sunday, April 14th, 2019 – 11:12 pm
I have been asking quoll and getting no answer, so I will ask you.
How many coal mines have the Greens closed?
I will add to that. How many asylum seekers have the Greens got released from Nauru or Manus?
All piss and wind.
Labor will win an election and make some real changes.
The flaw in your argument Firefox is that if the Greens were within Labor there’d be greater numbers in the left faction thus would have greater voting strength.
I know TPOF but he wasn’t that specific…..I was just taking a pot shot…
My momma Silvio.
Can we try to move past the Green/ Labor flame wars?
There are much bigger fish to fry these days, and those fish interest me more than reading the same old flame war year after year.
The deal with One Nation is that they’ll only run in a certain amount of seats. Until it’s known how many, Newspoll will keep giving respondents the option of choosing them, but after nominations close they will change their response options, and their reading for One Nation will fall accordingly.
Once again 777 gives a sober measured assessment of the state of play.
Interesting the Angus Taylor / Barnyard / Twitter Water Buyback thing.
I thought that would die off if the media didn’t pick up on it. 🙁
How to ensure that the media leaves it alone and chases some other bright shiny thing? I know!!!
Get lawyers to send a threatening letter to a well known journo threatening legal action for something she appears not to have done!!!
That will bury it…….not. 🙂
Ta William — another way of thinking about it, I guess. Makes sense.
I just couldn’t see them polling even even 4%.
Well then Henry, if your Momma brought you up right, as I’m sure she did, you’ll vote Labor, because you’ll have a conscience, albeit a rich conscience.
“Sadly I think Abbott will survive which is good for Labor but not so much for the Coalition.”
I feel your pain on that one davidwh. The man is the skidmark in the undies of our body politic.
The flip side to my last point, of course, is that Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison will prove to have been total failures as Liberal Prime Ministers, compared to Menzies, Fraser and Howard. When did the Conservatives last get booted out after just two terms?
It’s funny. This is the first time Abbott has been put under real pressure and he looks very ‘diminished’ physically by it.
“I have been asking quoll and getting no answer, so I will ask you.
How many coal mines have the Greens closed?
I will add to that. How many asylum seekers have the Greens got released from Nauru or Manus?”
We continue to campaign relentlessly on closing coal mines. Have you not seen the enormous and ongoing battle we are fighting right now to stop Adani? We stand by our beliefs and will continue to fight for them until we win, just as we have on all those other issues I mentioned in my post above.
“Labor will win an election and make some real changes.”
Good luck winning a majority in the Senate. You’re going to need the Greens in some form or another if you want to clean up the Coalition’s mess. We’ll be there when you come calling, just as we were last time Labor was in government. I hope for your sake that Shorten is as good at negotiating as Gillard was.
God save the queen. I’m actually watching a YouTube special on the opening of TVW Perth from 1959.
These are the days as Van Morrison once said.
William Bowe says:
Sunday, April 14, 2019 at 11:19 pm
Do you suppose ON will actually poll around 5% or is it likely, given they polled 1.5% in 2016, they are likely to poll much below the current projection from Bludgertrack.
The deal with One Nation is that they’ll only run in a certain amount of seats. Until it’s known how many, Newspoll will keep giving respondents the option of choosing them, but after nominations close they will change their response options, and their reading for One Nation will fall accordingly.
————————————-
William, does that mean it is best to lump the PV’s for ON & Others together at the moment, until Newspoll’s response options change? Or to apply a ‘discount’ to the ON PV?
“The flaw in your argument Firefox is that if the Greens were within Labor there’d be greater numbers in the left faction thus would have greater voting strength.”
I voted for Rudd in 07. To my eternal shame, I voted for Labor/Latham in 04 too. (Note: I don’t hold that against Labor and I know you’re probably all as disgusted with him as I am. Howard vs Latham – that was truly a no win situation.) I’ve been down the road you describe. That’s why I’m now a member of the NSW Greens – it just doesn’t work.
Fulvio mate, it’s me.
What do you think.
Careful, tvw Perth is about to open, circa 1969.
Time for the anthem.
Firefox @ #135 Sunday, April 14th, 2019 – 11:24 pm
So your achievements are nil. zip. zero. zilch. nada.
As for the Senate, not all Government actions require legislation and for those that do, Labor will have to negotiate with the cross bench, including Greens. And the Greens will have to decide whether they want to play politics by siding with the LNP as they have done in the. past on key issues.
“So your achievements are nil. zip. zero. zilch. nada.”
“Marriage equality, negative gearing, federal ICAC, banking royal commission, half of their EV policy, the carbon price, pill testing (maybe? In the ACT anyway), medical marijuana, etc… And that’s just what I can remember off the top of my head. ”
In short, far from it. Please don’t make me quote myself again lol
“As for the Senate, not all Government actions require legislation and for those that do, Labor will have to negotiate with the cross bench, including Greens. And the Greens will have to decide whether they want to play politics by siding with the LNP as they have done in the. past on key issues.”
What were you saying about Senators siding with the Coalition again?
Someone buzzing about fossil fuel projects being shut down,
by plenty of Greens working with a whole community of concerned and active citizens
I give you the Bentley Effect
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1eIgUvHwaw
The govt had no choice to end CSG gas exploration, despite the fossil fuel lobby donations pouring in
Part of an ongoing campaign across many communities in NSW and elsewhere in Aust that continues to the recent Gloucester coal mine campaign
It’s not so important who tries to own some partisan position, as that changes actually happen and fossil fuels are left primarily in the ground
Hard to say. The freed up One Nation vote seemed to go to “others” before the Queensland state election, but in Western Australia it seemed to go to the majors.
Firefox @ #141 Sunday, April 14th, 2019 – 11:36 pm
Oh right! So Greens achieved marriage equality all on their own! What bs. Ditto banking royal commission. The rest is just intentions.
As for your dumb graph, most legislation is uncontroversial hence the major parties vote for it. What counts is the key issues and the Greens denied us the CPRS and the Malaysia solution, preferring to play their puerile politics.
They are an impediment.
Quoll @ #142 Sunday, April 14th, 2019 – 11:37 pm
Quoll, good to see you.
Now tell us about all the coal mines you Greens closed down.
I wish that earlier poster luck in finding that happy place somewhere else in the world where he can enjoy tax free pensions in his retirement and fully refundable franking credits.
Outsider @ #146 Sunday, April 14th, 2019 – 11:49 pm
Maybe he can send us postcards as he pursues his quest around the world.
William,
Brilliant!
The State tabs are working on my tablet.
Thank you very much. 🙂
“Oh right! So Greens achieved marriage equality all on their own! What bs. Ditto banking royal commission. The rest is just intentions.”
Labor has voted with the Coalition many times over the years to block such things as marriage equality, the banking royal commission, a federal ICAC, etc… It’s only because of relentless pressure from the Greens and campaigners outside parliament that these issues are now widely supported. Labor are just Jonny-come-latelys. Better late than never though! We’re glad you’re finally onboard with those issues. Now how about introducing pill testing like the Greens and Labor have in the ACT? Or stopping Adani? We’ll get there.
“As for your dumb graph, most legislation is uncontroversial hence the major parties vote for it. What counts is the key issues and the Greens denied us the CPRS and the Malaysia solution, preferring to play their puerile politics.”
It may be uncontroversial to the two party establishment, but issues like the metadata police state laws and locking up innocent asylum seekers are highly controversial in the community. The CPRS was a dud which Labor tried to pass with Turnbull’s help. The Greens offered to negotiate a more effective policy but Labor chose to team up with Turnbull instead. Gee that went well, didn’t it. And you’re damn right we opposed the abhorrent Malaysia “solution”. We don’t sell out innocent asylum seekers for a few right wing votes.
“Now tell us about all the coal mines you Greens closed down.”
Meanwhile, in Queensland…
http://econews.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Queensland-state-Labor-premier-Annastacia-Palaszczuk-Mr-Adani-640×397.jpeg