The Australian brings us a second Newspoll in consecutive weeks, perhaps portending weekly results from now to the election. It shows no change from last week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead, but both major parties are up on the primary vote – Labor by two and the Coalition by one, leaving them tied on 39%. The Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are, interestingly, down two to 4%. All we are told of the leaders’ ratings at this stage is that they are “virtually unchanged”. Scott Morrison is unchanged on 45% approval and up one to 44% disapproval; Bill Shorten is unchanged on both measures, at 37% and 51%; and preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged, at 46-35 in favour of Morrison. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.
How to deal with Greens supporters that infest your blog!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1117325281541402625
Greensborough Growler @ #248 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 6:23 am
At first I thought I was watching a Capt GetUp video!
guytaur says:
Monday, April 15, 2019 at 8:22 am
Zoomster
…..we get the Greens are so pure line wanting the perfect instead of the good.
Not from me. The Gs are not in any sense ‘pure’. They are driven by expedience. Their positions are simply decoys, designed to create product differentiation. They depend on conflict with Labir and set out to fabricate it.
Confessions @ #249 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 8:26 am
It’s an actual ad from Thailand!
Every time Labor figures suggest anything, the LNP AND the MSM screech “Where’s the money coming from?”
Briefly.
Your problem is you just can’t accept that the Labor right can’t just dominate.
Look to the issues and the voters will come to Labor.
See Victorian election
Lizzie.
Yes. This despite Andrew Probyn telling the media on Insiders where the money is coming from n
What a terrible Q&A panel. No reason to start watching it now
For anyone who wants to see what the conservative brains trust comes up with when it unleashes Captain Getup:
https://twitter.com/matttburke/status/1117245798230552581
Confessions says: Monday, April 15, 2019 at 8:20 am
Am liking Buttgieg the more I see of him. I hope he does well in the primaries.
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Pete Buttigieg – Destroying The Myth Of MAGA
Mayor Pete Buttigieg wasted no time in destroying the myth behind Trump’s MAGA and making a real appeal to rural and Rust Belt communities.
While kicking off his presidential campaign in South Bend, IN, Buttigieg said, “And that’s why I’m here today. To tell a different story than make America great again. Because there’s a myth being sold to industrial and rural communities, the myth that we can stop the clock and turn it back. It comes from people who think the only way to speak to communities like ours is through resentment and nostalgia. They’re selling an impossible promise of returning to a bygone era that was never as good as advertised to begin with. The problem is that they’re telling us to look for greatness in all the wrong places. Because if there’s one thing that the city of South Bend has shown it’s that there is no such thing as an honest politics that revolves around the word again. It is time to walk away from the politics of the past and towards something totally different. So that’s why I’m here today.”
Just took a peek to see if anything interesting is being posted. Found it’s briefly vs guytaur round 10,001. May peek again tomorrow….
Malcolm Roberts? He’s just an ignorant know-all with a FIGJAM attitude. The ABC should be ashamed.
lizzie says:
Monday, April 15, 2019 at 8:28 am
Are they really so thick?
Hmmmm, lets see, no more business tax cuts, not flattening the PAYE system, negative gearing changes and franking credit changes just to name a few.
“Good on you Firefox, for demolishing the many untruths that get told on this site by RW Labor supporters. I was from a generational Labor voting family (local branch meetings sometimes in our lounge room) and stopped voting Labor for similar reasons, although I always felt relatively well disposed to the ALP and still have many friends who are in the ALP (and whose behaviour is nothing like that of the RW zealots on PB). Based on that behaviour, I feel I don’t want to reward the ALP in any form and aim to withhold preferences from them in the Senate.”
It’s time for you to be honest with yourself Max and vote Tory and be done with it.
It is the opposite of “zealotry” to point out that political success can only occur and thus real progress achieved by building coalitions of common interests between folk of different views. The Greens represent a small, smug and elitist cross section of voting Australians: they deliberately kick the sand in faces of folk that the progressive side of politics (Labor + Greens + others) need to secure the power to affect change. They do so for the cynical reason of shaving off left wing votes in their Quinoa enclaves in the inner suburbs of the major cities.
I’m all for progressive policies (I liked the Gillard ETS outcome that Combet brokered for example) but I and other Labor ‘right wing thugs’ realise that you have to take the public with you and “the public” is a much more diverse entity than what you’d find in a cafe in Brunswick or Newtown. Labor will simply not risk its fledgling hard won good will with the centre in some quixotic quest to appease your green terrorists.
TPOF @ #256 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 6:32 am
Just sick.
From 9’s print media, the Libs to announce a $150 Million “congestion buster” for the east of Melbourne
No doubt the (correctly) aborted East-West Link
As being promoted by Sukkar
So Ad Man from Mad Men trying to save Dutton’s 2IC, who would have been treasurer and Deputy Liberal Leader except he was out celebrating and not protecting his numbers
No doubt the infra structure spending had a major effect, particularly the level crossing removals which saw heartland Liberal seats lost at State level
Now Ad Man tries to replicate
Noting also the State Libs oppose as a matter of honour
Andrew Earlwood.
Are you sure you are not Michael McKormack. “Greens Terrorist” could almost be his line. He does use the Greens are a danger to our way of life.
Who thought Captain Getup was a worthwhile idea? Political brainstrusts really baffle me sometimes…
At Andrew Earlwood – well said sir. As the late great Tom Burns used to say “you can’t legislate from the opposition benches”.
phoenixRed:
Did you see Bernie Sanders is going after Trump voters? I prefer Buttgieg’s calmer, more sane approach.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/can-bernie-sanders-really-win-over-trump-voters/2019/04/14/43744f10-5c65-11e9-9625-01d48d50ef75_story.html?utm_term=.33e07023c345
Surely the IPA and newscorp connections with the libs/nats will be under the National integrity commission spotlight
And there has to be a corrupt like commission into the media
Umm..
@sunriseon7
The Coalition is enjoying a healthy boost in the polls, now tied with Labor just one month from the election. #auspol
Wong was a useless climate change minister. She had no idea. Combet would have done a better job.
UpNorth
If you think the LNP hard right is the centre you have not been paying attention.
Stop scapegoating the Greens for Labor failures as Murdoch wants you to. Instead focus on what the voters want. Windsor may not be running again but Rob Oakshott like the Greens and Labor is.
Upnorth says:
Monday, April 15, 2019 at 8:42 am
And you certainly can’t with under 10% support.
Bluey……………bad news from the West……………..they have M leading 3-1 on “Who won the day?”. However, as M had a bonus of 1 point for merely naming the election day, then it might be closer to your score. The West is totally off its trolley today screeching about Israel and Parke on the front page while going full scare mode that ordinary folk “and tradies” will be paying $5000 more for their vehicles under the EV plan…………..while “millionaires” will be the only ones who can afford the said electric vehicles. I have suffered the West for a long time, but today is about as bad as it gets…………..Still, we do get the TV mag on Saturday and the paper is delivered at give away prices. The Cryptic is always a bit of a challenge for the day also…………………but goodness, what a pathetic outfit it has become.
William and any other psephologists,
I realise it’s only one poll, but if the ON vote has fallen and seemingly split evenly between Labor and the LNP, isn’t that a bit awkward for Newspoll, which has been skewing ON preferences far more heavily in favour of the LNP than Labor in its modelling?
ltep @ #264 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 6:42 am
I reckon it was something the Young Libs came up with.
8 times last night I saw Scotty confidently telling me he had a delivered a surplus.
Now, I know that’s not true.
Is it beyond the ken of the Labor party to see that letting that go unchallenged is not a good idea.
I’m donating money to the ALP campaign.
Could I please see an add where Bill Shorten explains in fewer than a dozen words that what Morrison is selling simply does not exist.
And while he’s at it, the other thing Scotty is selling – Back in the Black – doesn’t either.
It can’t harm our chances.
I tried telling someone the other day the budget was in deficit AND THEY JUST DID NOT BELIEVE ME.
Sohar says:
Monday, April 15, 2019 at 8:45 am
That’s hilarious.
Despite getting rid of Hansen, her legacy lives on. 🙂
Shouldn’t we preference anyone in the Senate that we don’t absolutely object to? Is it a good strategy to keep.expressing preferences until we reach a point where they are all equally objectionable?
And if so where to draw the line? Should I pref Wong but not Gallacher if I prefer the left-er wing? Should I preference Birmingham because he acts sonewhat rationally and not from the troglodyte wing of his party and seems like a senator that I wouldn’t object to having on the opposition side?
Should I register a vote for Bernardi but not One Nation? Or should I preference ON but leave neo-nazis’ boxes blank? (Note I would never actually do either of these last two examples!)
Second question, is there any real objection to preferencing micros so long as the preferences indicate a flow through to the preferred party of government? For example, I feel very strongly about animal welfare and would like to indicate support for micros and independents with that single policy platform. Does that disadvantage Labor so long as I end up preferencing the ALP? Does it matter how far the trickle drown of preferences occurs? Is it a strategic error to consciously preference parties and independents that I might agree with but never expect to actually be elected, in decreasing order of my estimation of their likelihood to be elected?
g….I do not belong to the Labor Right. I’m a member of the Left. But like all members of Labor, I’m heartily sick of the anti-Labor posturing, sledging, wedging and sneering by those enemies who masquerade as our friends.
Confessions says: Monday, April 15, 2019 at 8:43 am
phoenixRed:
Did you see Bernie Sanders is going after Trump voters? I prefer Buttgieg’s calmer, more sane approach.
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For me – it’s WHO is the best candidate to beat Trump – and I like many of the much younger Democrats running this time who have a very modern progressive approach and attitudes to what is needed for America/World these days ….
Barney in Mui Ne @ #242 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 8:18 am
It also highlights that many people inside the Liberal Party (not just Cash) are off their rockers. They probably think she’s a political asset because they’re mad themselves. What a rolling s… show.
‘Day four: @Riley7News gives us an insight of what’s happening inside Coalition HQ in Bris. A “myth busting” unit to fact check everything Bill Shorten says and instantly fire off rebuttals ‘
No shit.
I get the irony but seriously, are these people reading PB because I’m not the only poster who has suggested Labor should be doing exactly that rather that ignoring Scotty’s shite.
Myth 1. Surplus delivered. Too late. Horse has bolted.
Myth 2. Back in the Black. Too late. Horse has bolted.
Playing to win. It’s the Labor way.
Cue name calling…..
Some of the righteous comments emanating since the official election call are making the man from “leafy” Kooyong seem relatively well balanced and fair.
I’m sure they’ll be put in their place soon enough.
What a time to ramp up the Green/Labor divide as the “33 days too far away” election is building momentum.
Moving into the 21st Century and some people focus on anything but the removal of the Abbott/Turnbull/Joyce/Morrison/McCormack/Dutton/Cash
government intent continuing the environmental catastrophe that is Australia.
Labor with the the ascendancy in the polls and their natural co-inhabitants for moving in a progressive and transforming direction, the Greens, are intent on demonstrating their conspirital aspirations is somewhat deflating.
Change from within perhaps?
Burgey says:
Monday, April 15, 2019 at 8:50 am
Actually you could argue that the skew should be more if their more “rational” supporters have deserted them. 🙂
@ Guytaur:
“Andrew Earlwood and Briefly chime in on cue to prove my point.”
…
“Are you sure you are not Michael McKormack. “Greens Terrorist” could almost be his line. He does use the Greens are a danger to our way of life.”
1. You have a comprehension problem due to your habit of selective reading. You have never grasped the basic senate arithmetic of 2009-10: (i) Labor + Greens = legislation defeated; (ii) Labor + LNP = legislation passed BUT after Liberal Leadershit: (iii) Labor + Greens + Liberal Rebels = legislation passed. While is was ok for the Greens to be pure and a protest rump under (i) and (ii) it was not under (iii). It’s as simple as that.
2. It was politically disastrous and franking outrageous for Gillard to do the deals that she did with the Greens on the ETS after the 2010 given all that she and Labor said during the 2010 campaign.
3. For Labor to even contemplate a fundamental shift in its climate change policies after the election to appease the Greens in the senate. Up to two million voters in the centre would simply walk away from labor and this time iteckon they’d be gone for good. That my woolly headed friend truly would be an existential threat to the nations future.
The Greens have a choice – support labor’s election platform (hence moving the Overton window massively in two important directions – policy and trust) or repeat what it did in 2009-10 and dam the consequences. I suspect they’ll attempt the later. This time Labor will not be for turning.
“Wong was a useless climate change minister. She had no idea. Combet would have done a better job.”
Could Combet have imagined up another 2 Greens senators in 2009? No. Well shenanigans to that bullshit Taylormade.
Lovey @ #233 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 8:05 am
Nor is it a ‘Treat The Greens with kid gloves’ blog either. Simply because they are Greens boosters.
zoomster
says:
Monday, April 15, 2019 at 7:51 am
I’ve gatecrashed Greens events and had a rockstar reception
_________________________________
Hilarious. Imagine the ego on zoomster if she had actually been elected?
mundo
Could I please see an add where Bill Shorten explains in fewer than a dozen words that what Morrison is selling simply does not exist.
And while he’s at it, the other thing Scotty is selling – Back in the Black – doesn’t either.
It can’t harm our chances.
___________________________________
I know it’s frustrating Labor’s strategy for this election is to run its own race and not let the Coalition set the agenda through deliberate, but careful, misleading claims. This results in the Coalition getting more and more extreme in its claims to get a bite from Labor and its supporters until you get to massive own goals like the EV circus and Dutton on Ali France’s disability.
It doesn’t work in every circumstance, but it is a strategy that has seen off two useless PMs and led to almost a dead heat in the 2016 election, setting up a potential victory now.
One of the reasons I have so much time for Shorten and Labor at the moment is the extent to which they have both learnt from all their mistakes of the past (and not just RGR) AND have kept their heads and not panicked. This bodes well for good government.
Snapping back to provocations is a luxury for people on PB, although sometimes taken to extremes. In the real world, allowing yourself to be distracted by deliberate diversions is fatal.
If your interlocutor was so keen on budget surpluses I suspect that they would be deaf to anything that did not coincide with their views. And if you, in a one on one, could not convince them of the truth, no amount of publicity by Labor could do better.
“UpNorth
If you think the LNP hard right is the centre you have not been paying attention …” to the vibe on Kingstreet Newton.
lol lol
Ever wondered at the many seats that the LNP has in Queensland and WA Guytaur? The fact that at least some of these have got to fall to Labor. No? Thought not.
Political success is not all about being woke with the bohobos mate.
Briefly
Nah. You campaign as if Australia has a First Past the Post System.
Whatever you think of the Greens Party Greens voters are Labor’s friends. 80% preference flow last I looked.
Stop listening to Labor right and concentrate more effort on defeating the LNP hard right.
Its what I am doing. Its why I have joined GetUp to campaign against Abbott.
I am just not delusional about where the centre is.
I know Windsor and Oakshott are conservative Independents. If you doubt that see Dr Kerryn Phelps MP.
I am happy that reality of the hard right revealed by Al Jazeera has seen the PHON vote collapse.
Is a football team more important than the welfare of the poor?
Andrew Earlwood
Last I looked Windsor and Oakshott are a long way from Newtown
Edit: Even in North Queensland the far right is losing ground.
Someone must’ve complained about that creepy Capt GetUp video.
EGW @ #241 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 8:17 am
Reasonable people oppose having the figurehead of an Australian government kowtow to foreign wealth and influence, doubly so when that wealth and influence is being leveraged to mine more coal instead of for something that’s actually productive and beneficial to society, with virtually all of the profits heading overseas.
Australia loses on multiple fronts there.
There are a few reasons Labor doesn’t keep ‘calling the Libs out’ on debt, surplus and deficit nonsense.
– It moves the debate to the economy, which (urgh) is a LNP strength.
– It makes you look defensive and reacting to events rather than leading them.
-It is complex, try outlining debt to GDP ratios, or tax levels as a percentage of GDP. Both ALP strong points, but too many steps of complication for mass communication.
– It lets the LNP set the agenda.
It seems counter intuitive to let these things go, but there is only so much a party can do in the sound bite frenzy of an election. Constant rebuttal and detailed economic correction is sadly not one of them. If I have any criticism of Labor, this should have been done over the last 6- 20 years.