Calm before the storm

A Seinfeld-ian post about nothing, as pollsters hold their fire ahead of tonight’s budget.

There seems to be a hardening view that Scott Morrison will take advantage of what he hopes will be a positive response to tonight’s budget by calling the election later this week, for either May 11 or May 18. Whenever the election may be called, its proximity makes this an awkward time for us to go a week without new poll results. Newspoll is set for a highly unusual four-week gap, having held off last week due to the New South Wales election and this week due to the budget, while Essential Research is in an off week in its fortnightly cycle. The dam is set to burst next week, with Ipsos joining the two aforementioned with post-budget poll results.

For now, all I can do for you in the way of poll news is to relate what James Campbell of the Herald Sun offered on Liberal internal polling last Thursday: that Pauline Hanson scores net approval ratings of minus 62% and minus 63% in the Melbourne seats of Deakin and Chisholm – and, incidentally, that Peter Dutton has been known to record minus 50% in Melbourne. Beyond that, there is one item of important preselection news to relate, in that the New South Wales Liberals are set to endorse child psychologist Fiona Martin as their successor to the retiring Craig Laundy in Reid. The Australian reports Martin has been chosen ahead of Tanveer Ahmed, a psychiatrist, and Scott Yung, candidate for Kogarah at last week’s state election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,286 comments on “Calm before the storm”

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  5. So the Coalition is now trying to con everyone by saying that “Australia is back in the black” when we actually aren’t yet. The truth is that the Coalition’s PROJECTIONS indicate that we’ll be back in the black soon. That is much different to actually being in the black right now. And I’ll believe it when I see it, not when the Coalition says it’s going to happen but hasn’t actually happened.

    TURF THIS DISGRACEFUL GOVERNMENT OUT!

  7. Puffy,

    The bottom line re tax cuts and the comparison between high and lower income earners will be the dollar amount. The government can prattle on about whatever they like. It will be the unfairness of those on higher incomes getting more cash( ie actual dollars ) in their pockets than low income earners. The argument about percentages etc will be nothing but noise.

    Cheers.

  10. Well like others I am in awe of Treasurer Dorothy Frydenberg’s ability – to keep a straight face while sprouting this garbage. Taxes down, payouts up, debt down… really? Sounds too good to be true. Way too good to be true. Australia is not yet in the black. If GDP growth is any more than 0.2% worse than the optimistic forecast, Australia will not get into the black any time soon. Good luck.

    And Josh Orwell has a new meaning for the word “deep structural reform” – it means “tax cut”. The sum total of his vision.

    One aside – I heard no mention of any amount set aside to implement the findings of the banking RC. Looks like they will get off Scott Morrison-free.

    Finally, it simultaneously cuts spending on disabilities (NDIS billions short of promised), while funding an RC into disability services. I think this is one of the more cynical documents in recent history.

  11. Firefox @ #673 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 8:17 pm

    EGW, you’ve actually demonstrated that you don’t have a clue. You suggested that the only parties of the left with a chance of winning upper house seats were Labor and the Greens. That is just factually incorrect. Animal Justice has already won an upper house seat at the last NSW election and is in the running again this time. If they get in instead of One Nation or some other whacko party you can thank people like me who bothered to prefrence them. Even if they don’t get in at least I can say I did my bit to try and protect NSW from fascists.

    Water under the bridge and hence not currently relevant.
    Think Senate.

  12. Thanks for all the budget commentary. My wife is watching the fake marriage show on Channel 9 and there’s a good chance it is more realistic than the assumptions used by Frydenberg.

  13. The only thing I’ve seen on TV tonight that’s more pathetic than the Coalition’s budget is the laughable Palmer Untied Australia Party ad that followed. How much money is this moron going to spend? Who the hell does he think is going to vote for him again?

  14. EB says:
    Tuesday, April 2, 2019 at 8:31 pm
    Come on BILL. Toss out a $40.00 a fortnight rise in the Pension and smash it out of the park WHOOT.

    Waste of money. Rudd was the last PM to raise the pension IIRC and he got no thanks for it whatsoever.

  15. If Scomo does not do the dastardly thing and go to the GG before Bill can give his Budget Reply speech, Bill Shorten will put this budget out of its misery on Thursday night.
    BTW, I fully expect Morrison to call the election before the ALP give can their reply.

  17. “Water under the bridge and hence not currently relevant.”

    How is it not currently relevant when the upper house votes in NSW aren’t anywhere near finished being counted? They are literally sorting out the very preferences we’ve been talking about as we speak! I’m not sure that you can get more relevant than that.

  19. An early review, not complimentary:

    “The $158 billion tax cut is entirely theoretical. It may never happen over the decade ahead, given it is based on generous forecasts for federal revenue when the budget papers warn the future is uncertain….

    Only $19.5 billion of this plan is due to go to workers over the next few years. The benefits will not be legislated before the election. The biggest question in this budget is whether voters should be swayed by this promise at all.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/the-economy/federal-budget-2019-why-should-voters-trust-the-government-to-deliver-a-tax-cut-when-it-cannot-be-trusted-to-keep-its-own-leaders-20190328-h1cwpe.html

  20. Laura Tingle now to Cassidy really good on the details of why NDIS money has not been flowing through.

    I know a friend who has worked in NDIS administration and has been very frustrated.

  21. “Laura Tingle confirms the budget ‘surplus’ is built on shortfalls in funding to the NDIS.”

    Which raises the question of whether the House of Reps would actually pass this shitty budget because OH THATS RIGHT THIS IS A MINORITY GOVERNMENT

  23. Darn @ #714 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 8:39 pm

    EB says:
    Tuesday, April 2, 2019 at 8:31 pm
    Come on BILL. Toss out a $40.00 a fortnight rise in the Pension and smash it out of the park WHOOT.

    Waste of money. Rudd was the last PM to raise the pension IIRC and he got no thanks for it whatsoever.

    —
    Different circumstances. Rudd wasn’t scaring pensioners with the Franking credits cash refunds issue.

  24. Puffy

    As Andrew Probyn quite accurately pointed out, Senate estimates is scheduled for next week. ScumMo will be keen to avoid that, nothing but bad news, and now a chance to dissect the budget. So an election call this weekend looks pretty likely.

  26. citizen @ #711 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 5:39 pm

    Thanks for all the budget commentary. My wife is watching the fake marriage show on Channel 9 and there’s a good chance it is more realistic than the assumptions used by Frydenberg.

    Tonight’s budget could be dubbed Surplus at First Sight for all the substance that underpins it.

  27. Firefox @ #717 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 8:42 pm

    “Water under the bridge and hence not currently relevant.”

    How is it not currently relevant when the upper house votes in NSW aren’t anywhere near finished being counted? They are literally sorting out the very preferences we’ve been talking about as we speak! I’m not sure that you can get more relevant than that.

    Oh dear… are you a Guytaur sock puppet?
    1. The NSW votes have been cast and cannot be altered.
    2. Most of Australia is not NSW.
    3. The next upper house election will be for the Senate.

  28. Just saw the anti Scrott ‘Have a go’ ad from the teachers. Norty teachers. The piano playing in the background sure does sound like it was inspired by The Excorcist 😆

  30. doyley says:
    Tuesday, April 2, 2019 at 8:34 pm
    Puffy,

    The bottom line re tax cuts and the comparison between high and lower income earners will be the dollar amount. The government can prattle on about whatever they like. It will be the unfairness of those on higher incomes getting more cash( ie actual dollars ) in their pockets than low income earners. The argument about percentages etc will be nothing but noise.

    Cheers.

    Totally agree. It plays straight into the theme that the rich are taking the lions share of everything for themselves, while the less well off can’t even get a decent pay rise.

  31. Citizen @8:39
    “Thanks for all the budget commentary. My wife is watching the fake marriage show on Channel 9…”

    While many PB’ers were watching the fake Budget show.

  33. lefty_e @ #720 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 5:45 pm

    “Laura Tingle confirms the budget ‘surplus’ is built on shortfalls in funding to the NDIS.”

    Which raises the question of whether the House of Reps would actually pass this shitty budget because OH THATS RIGHT THIS IS A MINORITY GOVERNMENT

    And parliament will not be sitting beyond this week.

  36. The Budget is assuming 2.75% GDP for 19/20 and 20/21.

    The Budget Surplus Projection pretty much disappears if GDP misses that by even 0.25%

    Last qtr annualised GDP was 2.3% and there are plenty of signs of slowing and unless something strange happens the annualised GDP will fall further in the recently finished qtr and in the June qtr as the strong March and June quarters of 2018 wash out of the annualised stats.

    Even with a bit of an uptick to 0.6% a qtr for this and next qtr this year’s GDP will come in under 2%.

    tl; dr: The ‘Surplus’ is an aspiration that will need more luck than anything.

  37. poroti says:
    Tuesday, April 2, 2019 at 8:48 pm
    Just saw the anti Scrott ‘Have a go’ ad from the teachers. Norty teachers. The piano playing in the background sure does sound like it was inspired by The Excorcist

    The unions have one out along the same lines. I saw it today. Very effective.

  38. Fess

    Thanks. I don’t doubt it. Whether Friday or the weekend, it is a safe bet that the Senate will not sit next week. I’d love to hear what Senator Steeljohn would say about the cuts to NDIS promised funding.

  39. Maybe it is just me but in the ABC coverage, even with the BCA representative, there are a lot of comments about this budget that it is “good but…”. I think the buts have it.

  40. “OH THATS RIGHT THIS IS A MINORITY GOVERNMENT”

    Most Coalition governments are minority governments. They may be in a coalition together but the Libs and Nats are seperate parties. It’s been quite some time since the Liberals have held 76 seats on their own. I’m actually not sure when the last time that happened was, but the entire Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison government has always been a minority gov. Even after their big win in 2013 the Liberals only had 58 seats on their own. Even though most don’t consider Coalition governments to be minority governments, I’d argue that they are in fact the very definition of them.

  42. “We know about the Peter principle. Frydenberg is showing us the Peter, Paul and Mary principal.”

    And by shifting around NDIS funds to get a fake surplus he’s robbing Peter to pretend to pay Paul.

  46. Confess

    “Senator Steele-John has an active Facebook page and I imagine he will comment on tonight’s budget.”

    He should. He is right. His constituents are getting ripped off compared to what they were promised..

  47. I think that the last time the Liberals held enough seats in the House of Reps to govern in their own right was the Fraser Governments of 1975-1980. Fraser maintained the Coalition in spite of this.

  49. Steve777 @ #741 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 5:56 pm

    “We know about the Peter principle. Frydenberg is showing us the Peter, Paul and Mary principal.”

    And by shifting around NDIS funds to get a fake surplus he’s robbing Peter to pretend to pay Paul.

    You have to give kudos to Leigh Sales for that question to Frydenberg being among her first to him. All he could do was stumble and blame the states. Not good enough!!

  50. The government is betting on being in the black.
    It’s gambling that iron ore and coal prices will stay at the current high levels forever and the export volumes of them both will remain elevated.
    They are adding to Costello’s structural deficit!

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