There seems to be a hardening view that Scott Morrison will take advantage of what he hopes will be a positive response to tonight’s budget by calling the election later this week, for either May 11 or May 18. Whenever the election may be called, its proximity makes this an awkward time for us to go a week without new poll results. Newspoll is set for a highly unusual four-week gap, having held off last week due to the New South Wales election and this week due to the budget, while Essential Research is in an off week in its fortnightly cycle. The dam is set to burst next week, with Ipsos joining the two aforementioned with post-budget poll results.
For now, all I can do for you in the way of poll news is to relate what James Campbell of the Herald Sun offered on Liberal internal polling last Thursday: that Pauline Hanson scores net approval ratings of minus 62% and minus 63% in the Melbourne seats of Deakin and Chisholm – and, incidentally, that Peter Dutton has been known to record minus 50% in Melbourne. Beyond that, there is one item of important preselection news to relate, in that the New South Wales Liberals are set to endorse child psychologist Fiona Martin as their successor to the retiring Craig Laundy in Reid. The Australian reports Martin has been chosen ahead of Tanveer Ahmed, a psychiatrist, and Scott Yung, candidate for Kogarah at last week’s state election.
frednk @ #747 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 6:02 pm
Beautiful!
Budget relying on NDIS underspend. Bastards!
Waaaaay too polite there, C@t.
frednk @ #748 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 9:02 pm
A good ad! Emotive, short and clear.
Howard had a majority in 96 without needing Nats
Firefox,
(enjoyed your movie btw – Sir Humphrey as a ruskie engineer/scientist particularly – but I digress…)
The quota for the NSW LC is 4.55%. So yeah fringe minor with 2% of the vote can find themselves in the game for the last few slots which due to exhaustion can be won on half that.
The quota for the Senate is 14.3%. Unless your primary is about 7% you’re not in the running. The old preference whispering trick doesn’t work anymore. AJP and KSO and any of the other left minors aren’t going to poll anything like that. They aren’t really a hope in hades of winning a Senate seat. Sure if the numbers came out in the goldilocks zone AND the Labor Senate voters followed the ticket at >90% AND a group of leftish minors ran very tight preferences AND their voters also followed the ticket at extremely high rates, one of the non Green left minors might be in a shot of picking up the sixth spot on Labor’s surplus (and I’d be delighted to see it).
But in the real world it isn’t going to happen. Too much leakage all over the place.
NDIS funding has been removed from the direct control of the NDIA back into the overriding government department. A bit of the “ can’t see the Forrest for the trees “ approach to cover up the underspend. Move it back into the general department budget and muddy the waters.
Bigger tax cuts for higher income earners on the back of NDIS underspend and even worse the government attempts to cover it up.
It is all about the optics.
‘BK says:
Tuesday, April 2, 2019 at 9:03 pm
The government is betting on being in the black.’
This year is a deficit. We ARE not in the black.
Hockey promised a surplus every single year.
They have had a deficit every single year.
Now they are promises another ten years of surpluses.
Any fool can do that, as both Hockey and Swan have demonstrated repeatedly.
Mike Oldfield’s “Tubular Bells” meets Nightwish’s “Slow, Love, Slow”.
The latter:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElbyDZYeAzU
BK says:
Tuesday, April 2, 2019 at 9:03 pm
Wasn’t there something this morning about iron ore prices?
Steve Price just said he thinks this budget has sealed the government’s fate. Ouch!
On Speers:
Paul Kelly not happy about the Budget. Notes they are not in the black.
Credlin ALSO notes that they are not in the black this year.
Andy Murray @ #753 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 9:04 pm
I know you have a son with a disability, so do I. Well, I went to an NDIS roadshow in my local area and we were basically told that my son wasn’t disabled enough to get the NDIS! The money had to go to the most disabled first. And it seems that, in the interim, it’s not even going to them!
Yes, I am being too kind to them by calling them bastards. That’s just the beginning of their cruelty. As Laura Tingle observed, it’s not their baby so they are abusing it.
I think wee Joshy just kilt their chances for another term.
EGW,
Ok mate, you keep telling yourself that preferences don’t matter. Yes, the votes have been cast in NSW but millions of them are yet to be counted and have their upper house preferences distributed. Who wins those final seats will depend on prefrence flows. To claim they don’t matter or that it’s pointless to prefrence left wing minors is just ridiculous. And yes, I’ll be voting the same way federally too. Even if a minor party who represents my views has zero chance of winning a seat I’ll still prefrence them. From little things big things grow. The question is why wouldn’t you give preferences to parties you like after you’ve voted 1 for your first choice? The only reason I can think of is if you’re one of those people who just can’t be f….ed to fill out the bit of paper, but that doesn’t make sense in your case. If you care enough about politics to be on a serious psephology website like Pollbludger then you probably care enough to vote properly.
Well, it is hard to know just what people think of budgets when they rock around – not quite like they used to be – but Channel 9 News here at 6 pm, had the whole thing, done and dusted in an item lasting 6 minutes – including the commentary. If I were a Liberal, I would not be holding me breath for the cheers from the troops on this one. Not much taken away – sort of – not much given – sort of – so bland, and, I suspect, forgotten in a week or so………………………………………
This is a Claytons Budget. The Budget you have when you don’t have a real Budget that gets passed through the parliament.
The electorate will reward the Coalition with a third term in government, a $7.1 billion surplus has been delivered and a record $100 billion to be spent on infrastructure. Solid budget management and high infrastructure spending is rewarded by the electorate, the Coalition has achieved that. Labor offers nothing but negativity.
Greg Jericho has been looking at the assumptions, and the track record – does not like it.
“Welcome to Budget 2019-20, where the future is bright and the horizon is clear of danger – apart from the dangers which the budget papers themselves warn about but bizarrely ignore.
This year’s budget is an odd mix of tax cuts and spending measures targeted to win an election, but with assumptions so joyous and optimistic that you could be forgiven for thinking the Liberal party wants to lose just so it can blame the ALP for not living up to their predictions”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/02/federal-budget-2019-the-seven-graphs-that-expose-the-coalitions-2019-budget-fairy-tale?CMP=share_btn_tw
And as times change, quite a few of the TV stations are not highlighting the budget at all, just making it part of their usual news bulletin………………………………If the budget was meant to gee up the LNP’s chances, I sense it is a false hope.
Hey nonny-nonny!
This is a ‘Take the family to Maccas Tax Cut’.
Bree
Your comprehension is not upto NAPLAN.
The surplus has NOT been delivered. The budget is this year in deficit.
It’s a forecast.
It’s a guess.
WTF??
Labor wants to increase Newstart for dole bludgers but punish hard working Australians with more taxes. Labor is a mess.
Uhlmann, currently Ch 9 political editor has a sobering budget assessment for the LNP.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/federal-budget-2019-news-australia-tax-cuts-scott-morrison-election-chris-uhlmann-analysis/746b8373-14a1-4fb6-918d-4d934d8b599b
I’d say Greg Jericho has NAILED it!
Misogynistic abuse of a female public figure from Steve Davis, and enthusiastic endorsement of it from noted feminist C@tmomma (both since deleted). Good stuff.
C@t,
Yep. Genuinely angry here.
Bill Shorten owns the NDIS. He should give them one off the long run-up for this.
I heard an interview a couple of months ago with a former senior PS official in charge some major part of rolling out Hawke’s reboot of Medicare. Understandably, there were lots of bugs in the initial implementation. So they threw resources at it and fixed it quickly. His point was the opposite has happened to the NDIA. He didn’t explicitly proffer an opinion on why he thought that was, but he didn’t need to.
Bree @ #777 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 9:20 pm
Lol. Do you kick the homeless on your way to work, Bree?
To be fair to Josh, this Budget is better than HoJo’s 2014 stinker
The trouble with infra-structure spending, as important as it is from an economic point of view, decisions today do not see the light of day as finished products for up to 20 years. All the stuff the Libs have been dishing out on repetitive ads over the last 2-3 months means absolutely nothing in terms of votes. It’s great that Tullamarine will be linked to the Melbourne CBD by fast rail, or Perth airport will actually get a rail link to the city but decisions on these are made years in advance of their planning, creation and completion. Perth is still waiting for the rail link – started 2-3 years ago and not likely to be finished until 2021 or 22……………………….I doubt whether this project changed one vote…………..
Ratsak, oh there’s no doubt that it’s much harder in the federal Senate than in the NSW upper house. Well, it is now. At the last election of course we had the DD half quota, then before that we had the ridiculous endless prefrence flow between 1000 micros setup by that prefrence whispering fellow. Gotta give him credit, he knows how to rig the system to get those micros in. We saw it again recently in the Vic election. Thankfully the Greens passed those Senate reforms though so we shouldn’t see that federally. Preferences are a great part of our system but they should never be decided in backroom deals or end up electing some obscure little party who the voter has never even heard of.
William Bowe @ #781 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 9:21 pm
Was not enthusiastic endorsement, ‘you betcha’ was about the fact that only JB would wear an expensive dress today, but a corrective wrt the comment by sd. I thought it went too far. But up to you if you think I did too. 🙂
That attitude Bree is a large part of the reason why this scurvy government, which you support, is about to be thrown out on its arse.
sprocket_ @ #782 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 6:22 pm
For me it is more reminiscent of the Howard govt’s 2007 budget announcement.
Alberici’s section was critical right through. Jennet grasped at every straw he could find.
I loved Puffy’s commentary.
Firefox @ #764 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 9:13 pm
So when did I say preferences don’t matter?
That’s right, I didn’t.
So go away and argue with yourself. You don’t have a clue.
Bree is an empathy free zone. Be proud Tories, this is your constituency.
Lizzie @ #786 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 8:59 pm
Thanks, Lizzie.
I like this bit of the budget:
“As part of this initiative, the Government is also providing $500 million for a Commuter Car Park Fund to make rail networks more accessible and take cars off the road.”
integrating rail, buses, trams and cars makes perfect sense in our suburban utopia.
C@tmomma @ #695 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 7:29 pm
Easy. Both!
They’re in no way mutually exclusive. Wage increases (mostly) don’t cost the government anything, since it’s not responsible for paying most wages. Labor can (and should) promise both. No need to make people think about which is better.
Both is always better than just one. 🙂
Puff
It’s good to see that you are still standing!
Tricot
Absolutely. 100%.
The only way an infrastructure promise has any electoral value is if the voters believe the person making the promise has any intention of delivering.
Dan Andrews won a landslide election because he made infrastructure promises and then delivered. There’s no way the rail loop, surely one of the biggest infrastructure projects in the nations history, would’ve been taken seriously otherwise.
Victorian Labor can, and indeed has already started to, make it plain that 6 years of coalition governments have dudded this state on infrastructure. Their promises are worth less than nothing here.
nath @ #791 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 9:35 pm
Another policy nicked from Labor by the Coalition. I waas there when the policy was announced by Bill Shorten outside Gosford train station last year. 🙂
“Howard had a majority in 96 without needing Nats”
Cheers. So it’s been over 20 years since there was a majority Liberal government and since then they’ve been minority Coalition governments. The last majority government we’ve had was Kevin 07. I think it’s extremely unlikely that we’ll ever see another majority Liberal government. Labor should be shouting from the rooftops that they’re the only party that actually has a decent chance of winning a majority in their own right.
Prices currently at Sportsbet:
Labor 60 seats or less 41.00
Labor 61 to 65 seats 11.00
Labor 66 to 70 seats 9.00
Labor 71 to 75 seats 8.00
Labor 76 to 80 seats 4.25
Labor 81 to 85 seats 2.75
Labor 86 to 90 seats 4.00
Labor 91 to 100 seats 5.00
Labor > 100 seats 13.00
Thinking these be good odds…..
EGW, damn you for making me scroll back through all these posts to find your damn quote!
It was worth it though…
EGW:
“The only ‘parties of the left’ that will get a Senator elected are Labor and, unfortunately, the Greens. So taking fancy circuitous routes to get your preferences to those two is just meaningless ‘feel good’ stuff. Enjoy!”
Frydenberg wants you to believe that wages growth will soar from 2.1% to 3.5% in 2021 if they are re-elected. Noticed on the TV analysis this has been called out by a few experts already. Chris Bowen didn’t miss it either.