There seems to be a hardening view that Scott Morrison will take advantage of what he hopes will be a positive response to tonight’s budget by calling the election later this week, for either May 11 or May 18. Whenever the election may be called, its proximity makes this an awkward time for us to go a week without new poll results. Newspoll is set for a highly unusual four-week gap, having held off last week due to the New South Wales election and this week due to the budget, while Essential Research is in an off week in its fortnightly cycle. The dam is set to burst next week, with Ipsos joining the two aforementioned with post-budget poll results.
For now, all I can do for you in the way of poll news is to relate what James Campbell of the Herald Sun offered on Liberal internal polling last Thursday: that Pauline Hanson scores net approval ratings of minus 62% and minus 63% in the Melbourne seats of Deakin and Chisholm – and, incidentally, that Peter Dutton has been known to record minus 50% in Melbourne. Beyond that, there is one item of important preselection news to relate, in that the New South Wales Liberals are set to endorse child psychologist Fiona Martin as their successor to the retiring Craig Laundy in Reid. The Australian reports Martin has been chosen ahead of Tanveer Ahmed, a psychiatrist, and Scott Yung, candidate for Kogarah at last week’s state election.
The Libs have evidently budgeted $2.5m a year for a National Faster Rail Agency.
*Utopia theme music plays*
Let’s be clear, $2.5m a year buys about 15 staff and some office space. I guess we won’t be seeing the Shinkansen from Melbourne to Brisbane any time soon.
The infrastructure spend is a real dogs breakfast. More park and ride for outer urban train stations is actually a very good idea. It is always undersupplied. But that is only $500 million – a drop in the bucket. Some of the rest is years away, or vague, or both.
Take the rail to Geelong:
“The budget commits $2 billion for fast rail between Geelong and Melbourne, a project that is dependent on winning state government backing.
The federal government also got on board a better train service between Waurn Ponds and South Geelong, committing $700 million to duplicate the single-track line and get services moving every 10 minutes.”
So the small announcement is well scoped and realistic. Yet the big announcement ($2 billion fast trains) has no details of where, when or how. Do we know if this line has even been planned? Is it in years 9 and 10 of the ten year $100 billion infrastructure boast? Does it need land acquisition or environmental approvals? I could be retired before Geelong gets fast rail.
C@tmomma
says:
Tuesday, April 2, 2019 at 9:42 pm
nath @ #791 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 9:35 pm
I like this bit of the budget:
“As part of this initiative, the Government is also providing $500 million for a Commuter Car Park Fund to make rail networks more accessible and take cars off the road.”
integrating rail, buses, trams and cars makes perfect sense in our suburban utopia.
Another policy nicked from Labor by the Coalition. I waas there when the policy was announced by Bill Shorten outside Gosford train station last year.
_______________________________________
Except that Morrison almost doubled the ALP’s promise of funding. So ner.
Firefox @ #799 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 9:47 pm
Whatever point you are trying to make, you probably haven’t.
William, is it ok with you if people use small minded and nasty terms such as “dole bludger” ?
“EGW:
The only ‘parties of the left’ that will get a Senator elected are Labor and, unfortunately, the Greens. So taking fancy circuitous routes to get your preferences to those two is just meaningless ‘feel good’ stuff. Enjoy!”
———
Some people express their inner fascism so eliquently.
Its called “neutralisation”. Its pathetic.
Socrates
I commute to Geelong regularly. Duplication is a good idea but the idea of a train every ten minutes is a furphy.
I live in Northcote. Services on the Mernda line are every 20 minutes off peak and, at absolute best, every 10 minutes in the morning peak. It’s busy, but it’s not that bad. An additional 9 trains per week in peak on the Mernda line has reduced crowding considerably.
swamprat @ #806 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 9:53 pm
OK, so go vote for some ratbag no-hoper team if that’s how you get your jollies.
But it will not alter the fact that the only parties on the left who will get Senators elected are the ALP and the Greens. That being so, your vote is most effective if 1 & 2 are Labor and Greens however you order them.
By all means, proceed to fill out all the rest to make whatever point to yourself that you wish to make.
C@t as counter-intuitive as it seems, car parks at train stations don’t necessarily take cars off the road. A lot of them get filled by people who were already using the train but will park at the station instead of taking the bus to the station.
Yes, it does take some cars off roads, but it also costs tens of thousands per parking spot.
So the great economic managers have managed to fudge the figures to get a $7.1B surplus but demonstrating their brilliance decided that the best way to show their economic qualifications was to immediately promise $151B in tax cuts. Now I admit to not being an economic genius like the temporary treasurer thinks he is, but my calculations indicate that instead of being in the black we are well and truly up s*it creek on his figures.
Also, I didn’t include the $100B in infrastructure spend and all the other goodies that that great $7.1B imaginary surplus is going to stretch to cover.
Btw, what is a legitimate vote for the Senate this time around? If you number above the line, how many numbers do you have to use?
Cud Chewer
says:
Tuesday, April 2, 2019 at 9:59 pm
As part of this initiative, the Government is also providing $500 million for a Commuter Car Park Fund to make rail networks more accessible and take cars off the road.”
integrating rail, buses, trams and cars makes perfect sense in our suburban utopia.
Another policy nicked from Labor by the Coalition.
C@t as counter-intuitive as it seems, car parks at train stations don’t necessarily take cars off the road. A lot of them get filled by people who were already using the train but will park at the station instead of taking the bus to the station.
Yes, it does take some cars off roads, but it also costs tens of thousands per parking spot.
___________________________________________________
From what I understand it’s much more effective for outer suburbs. Taking cars off the major highways if not local roads is a worthy goal. I agree that it is less ideal for inner and middle suburbs but usually there is not space for these car parks anyway.
3z
Yes it looks like they have just tipped a buckey of money out, coincidentally in lots of marginal electorates. Not much rhyme or reason. The hard work of analysing where it will do any good has not been done. But the exam is in five weeks so they have to submit their assignment in the shape it is in now.
There is also a staggering lack of timeframes on most of the transport announcements. When will they happen? ScumMo’s third term?
https://www.budget.gov.au/2019-20/content/community.htm#transport
Yay! Ian Verrender talking about Revenue as what Tax Cuts really mean as regards loss of revenue and thus services that the government can afford to provide.
nath it has to be thought through in every case.
There are places where you need a huge car park, like Holsworthy. There are places where you’re better off putting a cheaper car park away from the station and having a decent shuttle bus. And there are places like Broadmeadow in Newcastle where what you need is a decent light rail network connecting the station and where the parking is spread out along the light rail line.
The best thing about this budget is the teachers ad reminded me what a fantastic movie The Exorcist. Made my day. Must have seen it ten times and it’s still genius.
Interesting about increasing car parking in the outer burbs.
My Greens controlled Council wants to make it more difficult to park at train stations by implementing time restrictions and reducing the number of spots. Go figure
nath,
On the Central Coast of NSW, which already has a pretty fast train to the city and LOTS of people travelling there to work with a choice of going by train or the M1, it does mean cars off the road.
Socrates
I for one would love to see a Geelong fast train. But I think it needs to be thought through more carefully so that it integrates with HSR.
Bree @ #767 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 9:15 pm
Sad. No surplus has been delivered at all, of course. Forecast surplus depends on more dam failures in Brazil, and China lifting the coal export restrictions. Fat chance.
3z @ #818 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 10:05 pm
They want people to get buses. 🙂
EGW
It’s called “voting”.
It’s undertaken to “make a point”.
I know.
Worringly to you it is weird.
You seem honestly confused that anyone would “get their jollies” by not voting according to the politburo and in an “ideal” world you probably would tidy up such an obvious imperfection.
CC I agree but I hate the shuttle bus. I don’t think it would be popular to drive to a car park, catch a shuttle bus to a train station. Too many moving parts and too much time lost. I suppose it would be worth it if it was for high speed rail.
C@t It takes over an hour to get from Gosford to the Sydney CBD. That is NOT a fast train.
About 85% of people from the Central Coast who go to Sydney, drive.
Every day over 80,000 vehicles cross the Hawkesbury River bridge (both directions). A few hundred car parks won’t make a dint on that. Especially when a lot of those car parks will get used by people who already use the train.
With their record on the NBN, it’s more likely the outcome would be a slower rail service (who needs to travel faster than a horse?)
nath
Precisely. Its worth it if the journey is more 20-30km and there is high speed rail involved.
It will be interesting to see how the Geelong to Melbourne ferry goes. It starts soon.
swamprat @ #823 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 10:07 pm
I don’t know what is rattling around in the hollow of your head, but I am in favour of voting.
I was merely commenting on how to make a vote as effective as possible.
Does that trouble you? Why?
We should upscale it from Kingfisher to Kookaburra:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVU6YBPaaB8
Cud,
The train used to be slower. Until they took lots of station stops out of the journey. 🙂
C@t
My understanding is that bus travel in Melbourne is only theoretical.
If they get back in, one wouldn’t expect much of that money to be actually spent. More likely to go to au pairs, dodgy torture companies, or mining mates who pretend to care for the reef, in a vague administration heavy, retreats in very nice resorts way.
3z
says:
Tuesday, April 2, 2019 at 10:14 pm
C@t
My understanding is that bus travel in Melbourne is only theoretical.
_______________________________
The tram network only exists in the inner and middle suburbs. Buses are essential in the outer suburbs.
Rick Morton from The Australian predicted there will not be a Surplus as forecast for next year, or the years thereafter.
Probably so the Coalition can bash Labor about the head with it. Again. 🙂
Home Care Packages just a reannouncement. No new packages actually in the Budget.
The Drum is really good now re the Budget.
EGW
Haha… “to make a vote as effective as possible”.
You mean effective from YOUR point of view. Effective in achieving your outcomes.
Has it ever crossed your mind that other voters might have different priorities to you? So for them the most effective vote may differ from yours.
Socrates
Unfortunately for the Libs, Waurn Ponds train station is only but barely in the bounds of Corangamite.
Probably the biggest beneficiaries of rail duplication will be students and staff of Deakin University, a very fair whack of whom live over the highway in Corio.
I live ten minutes by car from Tuggerah station. A bus to Tuggerah station goes along Wyong Road; nearest stop is about 5 minutes walk. Bus timetable allows 27 minutes to station. It is always late in peak hours, train isn’t. Guess what is the best way to get to Sydney. Car to station, or bus to station.
@Bree is the new Wayne lnp loonie
C@t the train from Gosford averages 60 km/hr. It doesn’t even deserve to be called slow.
It’s pathetic to see a government pretending to have a surplus when it doesn’t. A simple look at wage growth projections will make it clear surplus forecast for the next year is a joke. What’s worse, projections also involve lower funding to NDIS.
nath
That was a joke Joyce.
nath @ #834 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 10:15 pm
There are a couple of tram routes into outer suburbs – Bundoora and Vermont South.
I cannot imagine catching a tram from Vermont South to the CBD. Way too slow.
yabba a lot could be done to improve the buses up your way.
For Cud Chewer:
Senate ballot papers
The order of the party columns on the ballot paper for each state and territory is determined by a random draw held immediately after the declaration of nominations.
Some columns on the Senate ballot paper will feature a party logo but some will likely not. This is dependent on each party officially registering a logo with the AEC.
Senate ballot papers are white in colour.
How to complete the ballot paper
On the white Senate ballot paper, you need to either:
number at least six boxes above the line for the parties or groups of your choice, or
number at least 12 boxes below the line for individual candidates of your choice.
Above the line
If you vote above the line, you need to number at least six boxes from 1 to 6.
Place a 1 in the box above the party or group that is your first choice, the number 2 in the box above the party or group that is your second choice and so on until you have numbered at least six boxes above the line. You can continue to place numbers in the order of your choice in as many boxes above the line as you like.
Your preferences will first be distributed to the candidates in the party or group of your first choice, then to candidates in the party or group of your second choice and so on, until all your preferences have been distributed.
https://www.aec.gov.au/voting/how_to_vote/voting_senate.htm
Apologies to the moderator and anyone else I have offended on this site.
swamprat @ #838 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 10:18 pm
Effective from the point of view of maximising the number of ‘left’ Senators elected.
If your priorities are different then you might follow a different strategy. Perhaps you want to see the Bernardi party or ON elected?
“Whatever point you are trying to make, you probably haven’t.”
Oh I made a point alright, it just went zooming over your head. In fact, so true and accurate was my aim that you were forced to duck out of the way of my point as it came flying off your screen at you. Hope you didn’t drop your phone mate! That was some Matrix level ducking right there! 😉