Calm before the storm

A Seinfeld-ian post about nothing, as pollsters hold their fire ahead of tonight’s budget.

There seems to be a hardening view that Scott Morrison will take advantage of what he hopes will be a positive response to tonight’s budget by calling the election later this week, for either May 11 or May 18. Whenever the election may be called, its proximity makes this an awkward time for us to go a week without new poll results. Newspoll is set for a highly unusual four-week gap, having held off last week due to the New South Wales election and this week due to the budget, while Essential Research is in an off week in its fortnightly cycle. The dam is set to burst next week, with Ipsos joining the two aforementioned with post-budget poll results.

For now, all I can do for you in the way of poll news is to relate what James Campbell of the Herald Sun offered on Liberal internal polling last Thursday: that Pauline Hanson scores net approval ratings of minus 62% and minus 63% in the Melbourne seats of Deakin and Chisholm – and, incidentally, that Peter Dutton has been known to record minus 50% in Melbourne. Beyond that, there is one item of important preselection news to relate, in that the New South Wales Liberals are set to endorse child psychologist Fiona Martin as their successor to the retiring Craig Laundy in Reid. The Australian reports Martin has been chosen ahead of Tanveer Ahmed, a psychiatrist, and Scott Yung, candidate for Kogarah at last week’s state election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,286 comments on “Calm before the storm”

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  13. Someone else has a sense of deja vu.

    Peter BrentVerified account@mumbletwits
    58m58 minutes ago

    “This is Frydenberg’s Costello moment.”

  15. I don’t know about you Sprocket, but the great election saving budget turned out to be a lead balloon for my money. Nothing there to shift the mindset of the electorate I would have thought. Kick most it down the road for taxpayers some out to 2030 . Are you kidding me ? Nope. Here’s you great budget balloon Josh –

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRcKom5_NiQ

  16. “Practical emissions reduction” is the emissions reduction you have when you don’t want to reduce emissions. Nothing that the Coalition is planning will stop a single carbon atom escaping into the atmosphere. What they’re doing is giving some handouts to mates who might be able to do things that might suck a few of the carbon atoms, a tiny fraction of what’s needed, back out.

  17. Work for the Dole rebadged as Environmental Cleanup Fund : press ganging those layabout dole bludgers to clean up toxic waste with no regard to OH&S or access to workers compensation

    I thought that franking credits was soon to cost the budget $8 billion

    This afternoon parliament passed months 1 to 5 of the budget

    NSW has just abolished Environment Department as they announced in their pre election policy drop – oh no they didn’t

  18. It will be interesting to see how the media in particular report the budget. Tbh I didn’t listen to this budget because I made my mind up ages ago who to vote for and it isn’t the Libs.
    Now bring on the election.

  20. I don’t think that this budget will win them any votes. Has no strategic direction and most of it won’t resound with the public.

    Bye Bye COALition.

  21. Wednesday – Media pushes ‘game changing’ narrative.
    Thursday morning – as per Wednesday
    Thursday night – Shorten takes the budget out the back and shoots it.

  23. EGW, you’ve actually demonstrated that you don’t have a clue. You suggested that the only parties of the left with a chance of winning upper house seats were Labor and the Greens. That is just factually incorrect. Animal Justice has already won an upper house seat at the last NSW election and is in the running again this time. If they get in instead of One Nation or some other whacko party you can thank people like me who bothered to prefrence them. Even if they don’t get in at least I can say I did my bit to try and protect NSW from fascists.

  25. And now comes the bit where the media pretend Australians are still listening to these divided incompetent LNP gasbags, until the next poll kills that ridiculous fantasy stone dead….

  26. Ratsak – Shorten only gets to give a budget reply if ScoMo doesn’t call the election before Thursday night
    Don’t rely on ScoMo permitting the oppposition leader the Budget Reply

  28. Frydenberg sounds very nervous in this interview. I keep forgetting he’s a first time Treasurer presenting his first time budget.

  32. Being lazy, can I ask someone to compile a list of journalists who are Liberal shills and post or repost it after BK’s morning roundup

    Thanks

  34. If there was ever a time for the government to neutralise the labor advantage on education and health it was tonight.

    All it would have taken is $14 billion over the next few years for the full Gonski rollout to public schools and labor would have lost a potent line of attack. That was a concern of mine leading into the election. I really should have known better.

    Cheers

  39. Both the Libs and the Labs want a non-government deficit for some reason. They don’t know what they are doing. We are badly governed.

  40. I keep forgetting he’s a first time Treasurer presenting his first time budget.

    and temping in a position half a dozen pay grades above his abilities (at least)

  42. When was the last time a Liberal Treasurer increased Newstart, or even the freaking Rental Allowance for the Unemployed?

  44. The top taxpayers will pay about a 1/3 of the income taxes. It sounds a lot, except they earn a lot more than 1/3 of the income.
    That is where that is a sleight of hand.

  45. ratsak @ #688 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 5:26 pm

    I keep forgetting he’s a first time Treasurer presenting his first time budget.

    and temping in a position half a dozen pay grades above his abilities (at least)

    Absolutely, and it shows. The Morrison ministry isn’t even the B Team or the C Team. It’s more like the D or E Team when compared to those opposite.

  46. What would you rather have, a $20/week tax cut, or a wage increase? Because with the wage increase you get the tax cut anyway!

  48. Confessions @ #696 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 8:28 pm

    ratsak @ #688 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 5:26 pm

    I keep forgetting he’s a first time Treasurer presenting his first time budget.

    and temping in a position half a dozen pay grades above his abilities (at least)

    Absolutely, and it shows. The Morrison ministry isn’t even the B Team or the C Team. It’s more like the D or E Team when compared to those opposite.

    Nah. It’s The M Team. The Muppet Team. 😀

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